College Football Year-End Top 25 Power Rankings

LSU is clearly #1, but how did bowl season shake up the rest of the Top 25? And does NDSU deserve a spot in the rankings?

THE 2019–20 COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASON IS OVER, AND LSU ARE THE UNQUESTIONABLE CHAMPIONS. Joe Burrow and the Tigers left no questions unanswered, capping off one of the most dominant seasons in college football history with a 42–25 victory over Clemson to win the FCS national championship.

So LSU is #1 — there’s no question about that. But is Clemson still #2, or does a relative blowout loss in the title game hurt their final rankings? And does FCS champion North Dakota State deserve a spot in our final Top 25?

Once more with feeling, let’s take a look back at the season that was and select a year-end Top 25. As always, we can only rank these teams on what they’ve actually accomplished on the field…

TIER I — THE CHEESE STANDS ALEAUXNE

1. LSU 15–0 (Previously ranked: 1)

Any questions?

LSU left no doubt with an incredible final stretch of neutral-site wins against Georgia, Oklahoma, and Clemson — all top-6 teams — by a combined score of 142 to 63. They were so dominant against the best in the country that they turned every second half into a snoozer. And they did that after zooming 12–0 through a daunting SEC schedule that included wins against Alabama, Auburn, and Florida, plus an early non-conference win over Texas.

Is LSU the greatest college football team of all time? I don’t think I’m quite there. The offense might be the best ever, but the defense was never particularly fearsome. No matter. They were incredible and stand as one of the most impressive champions in the modern era.

At halftime of the championship game, the NCAA honored the 11 greatest players in college football history. Just one quarterback, Roger Staubach, made the list. Staubach threw 18 touchdowns in his entire college career. Joe Burrow had 65 touchdowns this season, including 14 in the College Football Playoff alone. An incredible all-time season.

TIER II — CHAMPIONS ANY OTHER YEAR

2. Ohio State 13–1 (2) 3. Clemson 14–1 (3)

Yes, I’m aware Clemson just beat Ohio State a couple weeks ago. Did you watch the game? The Buckeyes looked the better team for most of the game, could’ve won late, and probably should’ve won if not for a couple pretty significant referee mistakes. Results are results, Clemson got the win, and they’d have been my #2 team with a close loss to LSU.

But Clemson looked outmatched for a second straight playoff game, and that’s why I think it’s fair to keep Ohio State ahead of them on the balance of the season. The Tigers have the single best win, that coin flip against tOSU. But the Buckeyes had four wins against Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin (x2), all by double digits. Those are all far more impressive than any other Clemson win. Heck, Ohio State’s win against Cincinnati might honestly be more impressive than anything the Tigers did in the regular season.

It’s all semantics, really. No one cares who finished #2 or #3. But in another year, these teams would have been playing for the national championship instead, and either would have been a worthy champion. Joe Burrow just happened to exist this year.

TIER III — THE BEST OF THE REST

4. North Dakota State 16–0 5. Georgia 12–2 (5) 6. Oklahoma 12–2 (4)

There’s no question which three teams were the best in college football this year. Anyone positing otherwise honestly must not have watched the games.

But outside of that top three, I genuinely believe the NDSU Bison are just as good as any other team in college football. The Bison just completed their third undefeated championship season of the decade, as many as every other FCS team in history combined. They went 9–0 against top-25 FCS teams and 4–0 against the top-5. And yet, the Bison got one solitary #25 vote in the final AP poll from Norm Wood, an ACC reporter from Virginia.

Too often, fans dismiss what NDSU is doing with a wave of the hand. “The FCS is the JV league!!” they claim. “These teams would beat them 41–0!” and “NDSU would never hold up against the difficult schedules top FBS teams face!”

Exactly what sort of schedule are you looking for here? NDSU beat #2, #3, #4, and #5 this season. Twice this season, the Bison won back-to-back-to-back-to-back games against top-20 opponents. They beat hated #3 on the road with College GameDay present at their hated rival in the biggest game in school history. They defeated #2 in the title game. I promise you, beating the #3 FCS team on the road is far more difficult than winning a home game against a top-25 FBS team. It’s honestly not even that close.

Would NDSU go undefeated in the Big Ten or Big 12? I don’t know, and neither do you. But let me ask you this: how many FBS teams would have gone 16–0 against the schedule NDSU just faced? How many would have gone 34–1 in the playoffs over the last decade when every team in the nation was gunning for them? Do you realize how impossible it is to go 34–1 in nine years of playoff matchups with everything on the line, where one slip-up ends your entire season?

I absolutely believe LSU, Clemson, and Ohio State would have gone 16–0 against NDSU’s schedule this season. That’s why they’re ranked ahead. I also genuinely don’t think anyone else would have. Oklahoma lost at Kansas State. Georgia lost at home to South Carolina. Oregon lost at Arizona State.

WINNING FOOTBALL GAMES IS HARD.

The best teams in college football still lose sometimes. It’s really hard to go undefeated! If the Bison were 75% favorites against all nine of those top-25 teams this season — and I assure you, they were not — they’d still have gone undefeated only 7.5% of the time. If they were 75% favorites in every playoff game this decade, they’d have won at least 34 of 35 playoff games only 0.049% of the time. That’s less than one-twentieth of one percent. Even if a huge favorite wins a lot, it’s still hard to ALWAYS win.

I think Alabama or Clemson could well have faced the gauntlet NDSU faced over the last decade and finished 128–8 in nine seasons with a 34–1 playoff record. But they didn’t. Alabama actually didn’t go unbeaten in a single season during that stretch. Clemson did it once but fell short this year. It’s hard to win every game!

But what if NDSU had to play Alabama?? Alabama would probably win. They certainly should. But here’s the thing, and this may shock you — Alabama didn’t play NDSU. They’d never even risk scheduling them. But Alabama did play 13 other games, and they were the more talented side in at least 12 of them (I’d argue all 13), and they lost two anyway! Winning is hard!

NDSU won every single game. Again. And 16–0 against the best the FCS had to offer is worth a spot in the top-5 of anyone’s final college football ballot.

TIER IV — BADGER BADGER QUACK QUACK

7. Oregon 12–2 (11) 8. Wisconsin 10–4 (8) 9. Penn State 11–2 (12) 10. Notre Dame 11–2 (13)

I’m seeing Oregon ranked top-5 in the final AP and coaches polls, and it doesn’t make a ton of sense. The Ducks finished well with wins against Utah and Wisconsin, but Utah got crushed in its bowl game, and Wisconsin was very clearly the better team in the Rose Bowl. Oregon went 10–2 in the regular season without a top-25 win. What’s so impressive about that? Let’s see what they can do September 5 when NDSU comes to town.

I’m honestly much more impressed with what Wisconsin did in their final two games of the season, even though they lost both. The Badgers led Ohio State into the second half of the Big Ten Championship, and they manhandled the Ducks but had bad turnover luck. Wisconsin beat Minnesota, Michigan, and Iowa. They were the second best team in the second best conference.

Penn State’s bowl victory over Memphis was their finest of the season. Notre Dame never beat a top-15 team and lost their two biggest games, but wins against Louisville, Virginia, USC, Navy, and Iowa State are plenty impressive.

TIER V — MINNESOTA AND BAYLOR REALLY DID THAT

11. Minnesota 11–2 (15) 12. Florida 11–2 (14) 13. Auburn 9–4 (7) 14. Baylor 11–3 (6) 15. Alabama 11–2 (17)

Look, we’re just ranking resumes and what teams actually accomplished this season. Minnesota and Florida both beat Auburn. But Minnesota’s win was on a neutral field, and their win against Penn State is better than anything else the Gators have on their season resume.

Auburn comes next. I had them ranked top-3 halfway through the season. I’m not penalizing them because they had to play both LSU and Georgia, and their trio of wins over Oregon, Bama, and at A&M are better than the best the Gophers and Gators can offer. But hey — those teams both beat Auburn, and results matter.

Baylor takes a tumble from #6. They were competitive in tough games against more talented Oklahoma and Georgia teams, but they ultimately lost their three biggest games and don’t have a top-25 win on the resume.

Neither did Alabama until beating Michigan with its B team. Look, Bama is not the 15th most talented team in the nation. They would have been clearly favored against all but three teams, and maybe a couple of those too. I’ve seen Bama have as many as nine potential first-round NFL draft picks.

But if you have 28% (9 of 32) of the most elite talent in all of football and lose your two biggest games, are you really that impressive? I’d actually say few teams in football underachieved more this season than Alabama. And I honestly don’t think too many Crimson Tide fans would argue otherwise.

Rankings are not about teams’ talent on paper. They actually have to play the games too. Otherwise we could just turn in Alabama at #1 every year and be done with it.

TIER VI — LITTLE LEBOWSKI OVERACHIEVERS

16. Memphis 12–2 (10) 17. Michigan 9–4 (9) 18. Iowa 10–3 (16) 19. Navy 11–2 (20) 20. Appalachian State 13–1 (23)

Memphis had a heck of a season and finishes as the top Group of Five team, even with the disappointing bowl loss to Penn State. The AAC was more competitive than the ACC and Pac-12, and Memphis was the class of the conference with wins against Navy, SMU, and Cincinnati (x2). If they had beaten Temple and gone 13–0, they might have been my fourth playoff selection.

They ultimately don’t finish too far ahead of Navy, who had one of their best modern seasons ever. Navy only lost at Memphis and Notre Dame and won all the rest. There’s not a big name marquee win on the resume, but credit to Ken Niumatalolo and Malcolm Perry on an awesome season. What would happen if Navy went 13–0 some season? Would the Naval Academy make the playoffs? We’re getting awfully close to finding out.

A decade ago, Appalachian State was the NDSU of the FCS. They won three straight national championships from 2007 to 2009 but went 4–5 the next five playoffs because sustained championship play for an entire decade is impossibly difficult. The Mountaineers jumped to the FBS in 2014. They’ve won their conference four straight years and gone 5–0 in bowl games, and this is the first time they’ve ever finished ranked — though they were the first FCS team ever to receive votes in the AP Poll after shocking #5 Michigan in 2007.

App State went 13–1 and was a slip-up against Georgia Southern (another former FCS powerhouse) away from a perfect season, because perfection is hard. One more win and they’d have earned a New Years Six bowl berth. That’s about as good as it can ever get for this team until we switch to an eight-team playoffs, and then they’d probably earn a road game against the #1 team in the nation.

So for everyone shouting for NDSU to move up to varsity, if that’s the upshot of the path waiting?

Nah. Flags fly forever.

TIER VII — EVERYONE ELSE

21. James Madison 14–2 (NR) 22. Texas 8–5 (NR) 23. Utah 11–3 (19) 24. Cincinnati 11–3 (25) 25. Boise State 12–2 (18)

Also receiving votes: Texas A&M, Louisiana, USC, Kansas State, SMU, Air Force

This tier would probably include #21 all the way into the 30s. We’ve reached the “everyone else” tier of college football, and as I did my biweekly rankings this year, it’s interesting how often the rankings fell off into no man’s land around #20. Maybe we should stick with a top-20 going forward.

I have no idea where James Madison should be ranked, but if NDSU is a top-5 team, then they’re definitely somewhere in the top 25. Honestly, James Madison looked like the better team on Saturday. The Bison were more aggressive and they made bigger plays and survived a tough, veteran team. If you swapped JMU and App State’s schedules this year, would they both have had the exact same season? I think so. Makes sense to rank them in a row.

Texas curb-stomped Utah 38–10 in their bowl game, so there’s just no way I’m ranking the Utes ahead of them. I’d sooner leave Utah off the ballot altogether. They lost their three biggest games in embarrassing fashion, and their best win is against a team that would rank outside the top 35 on my ballot. For a team that was supposed to be the Pac-12’s finest, it’s a pretty disappointing season to me. No way that team should’ve finished #16 in the polls.

I actually think Cincinnati is really good. They had an awesome season that opened with a win against UCLA, and they rolled through everyone not named Memphis and Ohio State. All the more impressive that the Buckeyes shut them out 42–0.

Not too excited about Boise State to close out the rankings after a 38–7 beatdown by Washington, but someone’s gotta be #25.

And that’s a wrap on the 2019–20 college football season! There are only three meaningful football games left until August — sorry, XFL.

Saturday, August 29 sees Notre Dame and Navy kick things off in Dublin, Ireland. We get Alabama-USC the following Saturday, and then the one that will start to answer some of the questions posed above: NDSU-Oregon in Eugene on September 5.

See y’all there. ■

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