2019–20 NFL Divisional Round Preview & Picks

The home team wins over 75% of the time after the bye. So will the Ravens, Chiefs, 49ers, or Packers be upset this weekend?

NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND DID NOT DISAPPOINT, with four one-score games that all came down to the final minutes. Two games went to overtime, and the New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints were stunned at home by the Tennessee Titans and Minnesota Vikings. It was a wild weekend of football, the NFL playoffs at their finest.

But the Divisional Round is different. The Divisional Round features the NFL’s four best teams, rested after a long easy bye week and a free win while these other teams duked it out. In the Wildcard Round, anything goes, but in the Divisional Round, the home team wins over 75% of the time. These teams are home and rested because they earned this right over the course of the grueling 16-week season — because they’re better than their competition.

So are the Ravens, Chiefs, 49ers, and Packers better than their competition? We’ll look back at what we learned from all four games last week, then picks and preview for all four games this weekend. We went 2–2 last week to kick off the playoffs. What’s in store for the Divisional Round?

5 THINGS WE LEARNED IN EACH WILDCARD GAME

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

1. The Josh Allen experience is spectacular. We got everything in that game. Allen was dangerous as a runner and as a receiver. He also threw the ball, at least three times straight to the other team. He took back-to-back 15-yard sacks with the game on the line. He lateraled to literally no one. Whatever you thought of Josh Allen going into that game, you got plenty of ammo going forward.
2. The Texans defense is not good. Houston allowed 425 yards and 24 first downs to this mediocre Bills offense. The Texans are the worst defense left in the playoffs by a sizable margin.
3. Bill O’Brien’s vanilla game plans are still limiting this Houston offense. Far too many Texans games come out with a sputter as the offense takes almost a half to get going. Houston did almost nothing on offense until Deshaun Watson took over and ad-libbed late.
4. Houston is not the least talented team left in the playoffs, but they are the worst one. Buffalo was clearly better, even on the road against a rested Houston squad. The Texans are not greater than the sum of their parts. They’re mostly inconsistent and average.
5. Houston can win big games if they keep it close enough and let their superstars make plays. That means Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, and J.J. Watt, and it means it’s wise to pull away from Houston before their superstars have a chance late.

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots

1. This was an extremely Patriots-y win for Mike Vrabel and Tennessee. On a cold and blustery day, Vrabel turned to a power run game and played field position, even using Bill Belichick’s own clock management shenanigans against him. Win by the sword, die by the sword.
2. The Titans showed they can win an ugly, close game. That matters in the playoffs when the weather gets ugly. Sometimes you just need to hand it off to Derrick Henry five times in a row, get the W, and get outta there.
3. The supposedly revamped Titans offense didn’t show, and Ryan Tannehill looked very Tannehill-y, completing just eight passes for 72 yards. The Patriots had the #1 defense and the weather was murky, and sure, the Titans have technically still scored three TDs in every game with Tannehill this season thanks to the late pick-6. But we’re going to need to see a lot more from this offense if the Titans want to have any shot keeping up with Baltimore or Kansas City.
4. The Patriots were no threat on offense. They were so little threat that the Titans were up 14–13 on the road against the GOAT and thought so little of Tom Brady that they milked two minutes off the clock and punted to Brady, trusting that he couldn’t get the Patriots in field goal position. And they were right. Twice. That’s not all on Brady, with no weapons to back him up, but this Pats offense was just lifeless and needs a change.
5. The Titans defense was just okay. They gave up 209 passing yards in ugly weather. They didn’t sack Brady once all game and didn’t turn him over until the final seconds. They got dinked and dunked all game and probably should’ve given up a potentially losing field goal, if Julian Edelman hadn’t dropped a key third down late. The Titans played not to lose, and it almost cost them.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

1. Kirk Cousins was fantastic on a huge stage with everything on the line. He hit every big throw, including the overtime bomb to Adam Thielen and the perfect fade to end the game. And yeah — I LIKE THAT.
2. Thielen and Dalvin Cook are finally healthy. Thielen was a non-factor all year but was the best offensive player in this game. Cook’s burst was back, and he bounced up quickly from a number of big hits. Resting both players for the playoffs paid off huge, though Thielen apparently injured his ankle in practice this week.
3. There’s no such thing as momentum. The Saints entered this game winning six of seven and averaging 40 points a game in December. The Vikings backed into the playoffs with ugly back-to-back losses to division rivals. Once the game started, none of that mattered, and the Vikings probably wouldn’t have won without all that non-momentum rest.
4. All the focus was on Cousins, Cook, Thielen, Drew Brees, and Taysom Hill, but this game was won and lost in the trenches. A Saints O-line that had been wonderful all year was dominated by the Vikings, particularly Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen. Worth nothing though — the Vikings O-line was still shaky. Cousins made a few key throws under duress but can’t be relied upon to do that often.
5. Third down made all the difference. The Vikings converted 10-of-18 third downs, including the walk-off touchdown pass. The Saints had been efficient on third down all season before going 4-of-11 Sunday. Third down defense was Minnesota’s calling card for years. Is it back?

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles

1. Carson Wentz can’t catch a break. This is the third straight season-end he’s watched from the sidelines because of injury. He played through hurt ribs all rookie season, and his final year at North Dakota State, he missed a huge chunk of the season injured before returning to win the national championship game. Getting a concussion on a quasi-dirty hit doesn’t make you injury prone, but five years of patterns are troubling.
2. Every Seattle game is weird, and every Seattle game ends in one score. The Seahawks are 11–2 now in one-score games this season, including a pair of 17–9 wins over this mediocre Eagles team. At some point, maybe winning close games is more skill than luck… or at some point, it’s going to come back to haunt them.
3. DK Metcalf is gonna be a problem. He looked like he could’ve had 250+ yards in this game. The Eagles drafted J.J. Arcega-Whiteside seven picks before Metcalf. He had 10 catches all year and played only 12 snaps in the biggest game of the season when Philly was literally signing dudes off the street to play offense.
4. Seattle is not too scary outside of Metcalf and, of course, Russell Wilson. Tyler Lockett hasn’t been the same since his injury, and the Seahawks are over-committed to a run game that isn’t working. It’s wonderful to have the world’s best quarterback available to go win the game late, but it’d be even better if you didn’t have to rely on that every time.
5. Seattle wasn’t phased on the road. I rag on Pete Carroll plenty, but you can tell this team has that underdog chip on its shoulder and accepts the challenge of winning three road games to make the Super Bowl. Seattle is now 8–1 on the road this year. They ain’t scurred.

DIVISIONAL ROUND PREVIEW AND PICKS

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-9)

I’ve been tooting Tennessee’s horn for quite some time now. This team is real, and last week was about them winning just as much as it was the Patriots losing. If there’s any other analyst out there that called the Brady dynasty ending at the hands of back-to-back losses to Fitzmagic and Tannehill, I certainly haven’t found them. The Titans are really good.

There’s just one problem: the Ravens are awesome.

The Titans are really good running the ball. The Ravens had the most rushing yards in NFL history. The Titans are good at playaction with a surprising QB stretching the field with the second best passing metrics in the league. The Ravens have Lamar Jackson, who will be a near unanimous MVP after leading the league in passing TDs and every other metric while also setting an NFL record for most rushing yards by a QB. The Titans have a nice, well-rounded defense. The Ravens had a top-3 D after adding Marcus Peters. The Titans are well-coached and don’t make many mistakes. The Ravens have the Coach of the Year and take every analytical edge.

Anything Tennessee does, Baltimore does better. Way better, usually.

The Ravens have speed horizontally and vertically the Pats didn’t have, and they have the current MVP, not the one from a decade ago. They’re also a more aggressive defense and blitz often against a QB that has struggled against the blitz his whole career.

These are similar teams in some ways, and from that perspective, if the Ravens play a bottom 25 percentile outcome game and the Titans play a top 25 percentile outcome, and if the Ravens look ahead to Kansas City, then maybe this will be one of those games that’s “close” without ever really being close.

The Titans are 8–3 ATS with Tannehill. I really want to give them respect by picking them to cover. But Baltimore has won and covered nine of their last 10, even with huge lines, and they have 10 double-digit wins already this season. I smell #11.

THE PICK: Baltimore -9

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)

This is the one game this weekend that would genuinely shock me to see the underdog win. The Texans just aren’t very good, unless they decide to be that day. I think this was the best possible outcome for the Chiefs. A game against Belichick and Brady is never fun, and the Pats beat them twice last year. The Bills would’ve been a tough defense to crack and a bad matchup. The Texans? They’re just going to try to outscore the Chiefs, and they’re not going to.

Oh sure, Houston beat Kansas City late in Week 6 when Patrick Mahomes was playing hurt and the Chiefs were missing Sammy Watkins and Damien Williams and Chris Jones and guess how relevant I think that game’s result is this weekend.

The Chiefs defense changed some things schematically and allowed only 11.5ppg over the final six weeks. Houston’s offensive line is still bad and could struggle against Jones and Frank Clark, and the Chiefs will miss rookie safety Juan Thornhill but the Texans still don’t have a healthy Will Fuller to take the top off of the defense.

I still can’t believe Kansas City got a bye week after all their injuries. I can’t believe Mahomes is playing, and he looks great. This is the healthiest the Chiefs have been since the start of the season, and they’ve played their best football down the stretch. Andy Reid is darn near invincible (22–5 lifetime) with an extra week to prepare. Houston is one of the worst teams in the league defending RB screens and receptions. Andy Reid is the best screen schemer in NFL history. And did I mention the Texans have the worst defense in the playoffs and they’re facing the reigning MVP and a healthy Tyreek Hill?

Only two things give me any hesitation at all: Kansas City’s nightmarish history of playoff games, especially at home, and Deshaun Watson’s ability to come up with some magic late and a backdoor cover. Watson is 13–4 ATS as an underdog. That’s not enough for me.

THE PICK: Kansas City -9.5

Minnesota at San Francisco (-7)

I’m a Vikings fan, and I was all-in on this team when the dust settled after another last-play win against New Orleans. The Saints were a worst-case matchup, and the Vikings are a genuinely good team that appear to be peaking at the right time against an opponent without much playoff history.

And yet, as the week has gone on, in typical Vikings fan fashion, I have increasingly lost hope — mostly because the 49ers are just that good.

We know what the Vikings can be now. Kirk Cousins can be a top-10 or better quarterback with a clean pocket and quick reads. Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs can be the best receiver duo in the league. Dalvin Cook can change the game. Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen can be as good as any pass rush. Mike Zimmer can scheme the heck out of a game. Every one of those things happened last week… and the Vikings still needed to catch several big breaks and convert a handful of huge plays to escape with a win in overtime. Sure Minnesota looked really good, but isn’t that a bit worrying?

The Vikings benefited from two weeks of prep and extra rest to get their injured guys healthy again. This week, it’s San Francisco benefiting. Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford could both be back, each of them a key part of a defense that was fearsome early but just good late. The Vikings are banged up now after a tough playoff game, and they’re the ones traveling to the West coast on a short week playing the earliest Saturday game.

There’s one matchup that terrifies me in this game, and it’s not on the field. It’s Kyle Shanahan with all the time in the world to prepare his team to face his old quarterback student, Kirk Cousins. Remember, Shanahan discovered and mentored Cousins. He knows all his strengths — and all his foibles. He knows exactly what to do to throw Cousins off. Cousins is great when he’s good but awful when he’s not. Shanahan knows this as well as anyone.

On paper, the Vikings look as good as San Francisco pretty much everywhere other than the trenches. I’d take Cousins over Jimmy Garoppolo, and RB, WR, S, and LB are no contest. San Francisco is only clearly better on O-line and at tight end. And as awesome as George Kittle is, the Vikings were the #1 DVOA defense against tight ends this season and have the linebackers to match up with Kittle, as much as anyone can.

These teams run similar offenses, and like New Orleans, the 49ers eschew the deep ball and beat teams with sustained drives. That was a worry for Minnesota last game and still is this week. Last week, Xavier Rhodes was a good matchup against Michael Thomas with his physical style. This week he’s a liability against San Francisco’s speed.

Really, that’s the thing you noticed about this 49ers offense as the season evolved — they looked more and more like Sean McVay’s offense from a year ago. There’s constant motion before the snap to confuse the defense, and every player that gets the ball is so fast and game-breaking. The 49ers began the season as the Patriots, with a dominant defense and just enough offense. Now the offense is scary too, and the defense is getting some of its key players back. San Francisco was awesome all season. They’re battle-tested with a brutal schedule and any number of big wins and close games. They are the best team left in the NFC, and it isn’t close.

San Francisco is 0–6–1 against the spread this season when favored by at least six, and I haven’t picked them ATS since October. But the longer I think about this game, the more I think the 49ers could haunt Kirk Cousins all game and run up a huge winning margin.

If Minnesota does win, it will look a lot like last week, and it’ll be because the Vikings dominated Jimmy Garoppolo in his first playoff start, exposing a player prone to sacks and turnovers. I fear it’s the other quarterback who will be exposed, but I feared that last week too. Prove me wrong again, Kirk.

THE PICK: San Francisco -7

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)

Is there even any point previewing a Seahawks game anymore? Seattle has never played a normal football game in history. It’s always something weird, always close late, and always chock fill of Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson.

These teams have a trio of weird recent playoff games. There was Matt Hasselbeck’s “We want the ball and we’re going to score” moments before Al Harris’s pick-6 in 2004. There was the Snow Globe game in 2008 when Ryan Grant fumbled twice in the first 69 seconds, then ran for a Packers record 201 yards en route to victory. And of course there was the Brandon Bostick game, where the backup Packers tight end couldn’t handle a late onside kick and Seattle came back to win the NFC Championship in overtime.

Remember how the Packers had never lost a home playoff game at Lambeau before Michael Vick did the unthinkable in 2002? Green Bay is only 5–4 in the playoffs at Lambeau since then and remember — you only get to play a home playoff game if you’re supposed to be the better team.

Of course, the Packers are supposed to be the better team here too. But are they? Green Bay is one of the least impressive 13–3 teams in NFL history. They’re average passing and defending the pass. They’re slightly above average running the ball and well below it on defense.

What exactly are the Packers good at? Go ahead, I’ll wait. They don’t turn it over much. Za’Darius Smith has been awesome the last month. Annnnd… I’m out. The Packers have eight one-score wins this season, six of them against non-playoff teams. Their most impressive win this season was… maybe Week 16 in Minnesota? They faced one great team all year, and the 49ers absolutely demolished them 37–8. The Packers lost at home to the Eagles and barely beat the Mahomes-less Chiefs. Green Bay just isn’t very a great team.

The problem is neither are the Seahawks. We already talked about Seattle’s 11–2 record in one-score games above. Seven of those wins were eked out against non-playoff teams too. Seattle was at least a pretty good offense in the regular season, before all their running backs and Tyler Lockett got hurt.

Neither of these teams is great, and I’d take the 49ers, Ravens, or Chiefs over either of them without thinking twice, but this is the bracket we’ve got.

Seattle is not the defense they once were, but they’re still a ball-hawking team that loves to force turnovers, and Green Bay takes care of the ball. What happens to Seattle if they don’t get a couple easy turnovers?

Green Bay loves to take away the deep ball and dare you to run, and that’s exactly what Seattle wants to do anyway, but Marshawn Lynch and Travis Homer combined for 19 yards on 17 carries last week. What happens if Green Bay dares Seattle to run all game and they do? I trust Aaron Jones to run the ball a lot more than I trust those Seahawks.

Seattle is 8–1 on the road this season and won’t be afraid of Lambeau, and home field doesn’t mean as much in Wisconsin as it used to. The Seahawks are 3–2 straight up as underdogs this season. They’ll relish this opportunity.

I expect this game to be ugly, weird, and close late, just like every other Seahawks and Packers game this season. That means three quarters of weird football rewarded with the ball in the hands of Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson to end the weekend.

And you know what? We could do much worse. ■

THE PICK: Seattle +4.5

DIVISIONAL ROUND BEST BETS

Kansas City -9.5 7-point teaser KC -2.5, BAL -2, and SEA +11.5

Last week: 2–2 Postseason total: 2–2 Season total: 140–111–2 (55.8%) Best bets: 30–23–1 (56.6%)

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