College Football Season-End Top 25 Power Rankings and Bowl Projections

Which team deserves to be #4, and how does the College Football Playoff shape up as the season concludes?

AND JUST LIKE THAT, ANOTHER SEASON OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS IN THE BOOKS. Well, another regular season. There’s still a full weekend of conference championship games, plus like 847 bowl games that will air on every ESPN channel for the next five or six weeks, so the reality is that college football is still just barely getting started. Now we’re getting to the good stuff.

Of course, that means it’s time to get down to business and figure out the College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings once and for all. Which team should be ranked #1? It matters more than you’d think. And who will get in at #4 — Utah, Oklahoma, Baylor, or another candidate?

Let’s run through a final Top 25 Power Rankings, plus every CFP scenario and bowl projections for the big ones, starting at the top…

TIER I — WE SHOULD CARE WHO’S #1

1. LSU 12–0 (Last week: 1) 2. Ohio State 12–0 (2)

All the talk this week will be about which team will be #4, but the more important race might actually be for #1. There’s a big three in college football this year, and everyone knows it. Assuming those three teams win, it matters quite a bit which team gets the #1 ranking because it means they only have to beat one of the other two to win a title. And although it’s pretty much a lock at this point that Clemson is #3 with their soft conference and resume, they’re still the defending national champions and a team you do not want to play.

So which of these two deserves to avoid them?

You’re going to hear this week how Ohio State beat four teams playing in their conference championship. That includes Wisconsin, along with the Buckeyes’ full non-conference slate: Cincinnati, Florida Atlantic, and Miami-Ohio. And hooray for those teams. But Ohio State doesn’t get bonus credit because they accidentally scheduled these teams a few years ago before they went on to play as underdogs in conference championships no one cares about. That’s not the case for Cincinnati, but beating Miami and FAU is not relevant. LSU’s wins over Georgia Southern and Northwestern State may not be as impressive as those two, but the four games matter so little it’s just not important. What does matter is LSU’s non-conference win AT Texas, which was a more meaningful than any tOSU win until this weekend. That win alone is worth more than all of the Buckeyes non-conference schedule.

A look in conference leaves these two closer than you’d think. LSU’s win at Alabama lost some luster this weekend and isn’t worth much more (maybe less?) than Ohio State’s win this weekend at Michigan. LSU has home wins over Auburn and Florida. That’s a little more valuable than Ohio State’s home wins over Wisconsin and Penn State, but the Buckeyes were more dominant. The rest of conference play comes out in the wash.

This is close, really, closer than you’d think as strong as the SEC is. But the edge goes to LSU, just by a little, both in and out of conference — and then of course the Tigers would add a win over Georgia this weekend too, which is more valuable than beating Wisconsin a second time.

LSU should be #1 over Ohio State. They’ve earned the right to face the lesser opponent in the national semifinals.

TIER II — THE SAFEST RANKING IN FOOTBALL

3. Clemson 12–0 (3)

There’s not much we need to say about Clemson, the easiest rank on the ballot and a massive 28.5-point favorite in their conference championship. Are we sleeping on Clemson a bit? Maybe so. They struggled early on but are crushing teams lately, and they are still the defending national champs with a ton of pedigree. You definitely don’t want to face this team in the CFP.

My NDSU Bison would rank #4 in this tier, but these rankings and numbers matter for CFP status now so we’ll just let the Bison take care of Nicholls State and the next three teams and take home another FCS crown. But let the record show that they’d be more competitive as the CFP 4-seed than any other available option.

TIER III — THE 4-SEED COMPETITORS

4. Georgia 11–1 (4) 5. Oklahoma 11–1 (6) 6. Baylor 11–1 (5)

Georgia has by far the worst loss of any remaining national title contender. Losing to South Carolina — at home! — would have been an automatic disqualifier in the old BCS days. But with four playoff spots and a brutal SEC schedule, Georgia’s path is as open as ever. If they beat LSU this week, they’ll add that to wins at Auburn and against Florida (neutral) and Notre Dame. That’s four top-12 wins and would make the Bulldogs a very obvious and easily deserving playoff team. I’d argue they should even be ranked above Clemson at that point, though they’d be #2 and #3 so it’s irrelevant I suppose.

Oklahoma sneaks back ahead of Baylor at #5 on the heels of a dominant win at Oklahoma State, but both of these resumes are pretty strong. The Sooners have that road win along with the one at Baylor and a neutral win over Texas. Baylor has the better loss of the two but lacks that marquee win, though wins at Kansas State and Oklahoma State and over Texas are still very good top-30ish wins.

Both of these schools have three wins FAR better than anything Utah brings to the table, and one of them will add a fourth this weekend in the Big XII Championship. That will make them more than deserving of a spot in the CFP, and I genuinely think both teams control their destiny. The committee has proven time and again that they value conference champions, so that puts them ahead of any of the three 12–0 schools if they lose. And as for Utah? It’s just not a contest. Both Baylor and Oklahoma will have the best win (yes, including Utah over Oregon) and the best second-, third-, and fourth-best wins by a wide margin. And no, Utah’s non-conference win at BYU doesn’t move the needle in that conversation.

And look, you can pretend Utah has a chance if you want, but follow the dollars. Oklahoma has the star coach, the first-round receiver, and the Heisman hopeful quarterback, along with a massive traveling fan base and the attention of fans nationally. Utah is… Utah. Is there defense great? Have they dominated teams while OU and Baylor have eked out wins? Sure, yes, but none of that matters. The NCAA is a money machine. Either Oklahoma will be 12–1 and get the spot over Utah because they’re Oklahoma and seriously wake up, or Baylor will get it because they will have just beaten Oklahoma and avenged their only loss.

Sorry Utah backers, it’s not happening. I honestly don’t think it’ll be close.

TIER IV — YES, THEY’RE AHEAD OF UTAH TOO

7. Auburn 9–3 (14) 8. Wisconsin 10–2 (16) 9. Michigan 10–2 (11)

Yes, Auburn has three losses, but they’re losses to LSU, Georgia, and Florida, two of them on the road. They also have wins over Oregon and Alabama, along with everyone else on the schedule. They deserve a New Year’s Six bowl berth, and they’re clearly ahead of the next cluster of two-loss teams with that resume, even if they were unlucky enough to play a brutal schedule.

Does Wisconsin have a faint shot at the national title championship? I don’t think so. Even a win splits the season series with Ohio State, but the Buckeyes still have the better overall resume (by a decent margin) and didn’t lose at Illinois like the Badgers. Even a win this weekend probably still leaves them behind one-loss versions of the three undefeated teams, and we’re guaranteed a one-loss Big XII champ too. Sorry, Wisconsin. Beat Illinois next year.

And yes, Michigan at #9 and Penn State at #10 mean the Big Ten stacks up very reasonably with the SEC this year. I’ve got three SEC teams in the top seven, but four of the top 10 are Big Ten, and six of the top 17.

TIER V — YOU DESERVE A NICE JANUARY 1 BOWL

10. Penn State 10–2 (10) 11. Notre Dame 10–2 (13) 12. Florida 10–2 (12) 13. Utah 11–1 (9) 14. Memphis 11–1 (17)

These teams all fit in the same tier. They all had their shot at a real CFP case but all came up short in a key moment. They all had very lovely seasons. They deserve our love. But none of them got a big marquee win or did what they had to do to build a title-contending resume.

Penn State, Notre Dame, and Florida aren’t super interesting. They all faced tough schedules, lost a couple times, but still piled up a bunch of solid wins.

Utah and Memphis being ranked consecutively is interesting, and will raise more than a few eyebrows. Neither of them has a win even close to as valuable as the 12 teams ranked above them. Neither plays in an elite conference, though both play in very good, tough overall conferences. Both of them have a loss that’s not horrible but certainly not good. Utah’s loss at USC is being downplayed now, but that was USC’s third string quarterback, and a loss to that particular Trojans team isn’t much worse than Memphis’s loss at Temple.

Both teams took care of business in the rest of their games. Memphis, not Utah, has the better wins. They beat Navy, SMU, and Cincinnati, all ranked in this top 25. Utah has zero top-25 wins. Their presumed win over Oregon this week will be the better single win than anything Memphis has, but the Tigers fourth-best win would dwarf Utah’s second best.

In the end, none of that matters. Neither team has a marquee win, and neither had a real chance to get one. In college football, that means you have to go undefeated. Look at Clemson. They played in a conference that lacked potential marquee wins, like Utah and Memphis. They had zero margin for error, and they almost blew it against UNC but they didn’t. They won all their games. If you win all your games, no matter who you face, you get to be in the conversation. Utah and Memphis didn’t win all their games. Actually, they both lost the one toughest game on their schedule. And with no margin for error, that means elimination from national title contention — no matter how impressive you are in every other game.

Both Utah and Memphis should get a New Years Six bowl. And they deserve them. But they’re not title contenders any more than Clemson would have been at 11–1 in a weak ACC with a road loss in their toughest game.

TIER VI — THE SOFT SCHEDULE WINNERS

15. Oregon 10–2 (15) 16. Minnesota 10–2 (8) 17. Iowa 9–3 (22) 18. Alabama 10–2 (7) 19. Boise State 11–1 (19)

We didn’t learn a ton about these teams in the end. They each took care of business against a lot of worse opponents. They each lost, usually comfortably so, against top opponents. And that means they just are what they are.

Oregon lost its opener to Auburn, and presumed first-round pick QB Justin Herbert could never make the right big plays late in Oregon’s two losses. Minnesota eked out its big home win over Penn State, but the truth is that their other nine wins were nothing special in the end. Iowa beat them and probably has a case to rank ahead of them.

Is Iowa much different than Alabama in the end? Iowa lost to Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin, two of those on the road. Bama lost to LSU and Auburn. Both teams lost against opponents that are simply better than them. Both of them took care of the rest of their games. Iowa beat Minnesota. Alabama’s best win of the season was at Texas A&M, a 7–5 team that lost its only five meaningful games, basically a watered down version of the other teams in this tier. Some of the computers still have Alabama at #2 in the rankings. Computers are stupid. Results matter.

The Group of Five spot in the New Years Six bowls looks like it’s between Memphis and Boise State at this point. If Memphis wins this weekend, it’s no contest. The AAC looks every bit as tough as the PAC 12 and ACC this year, and Memphis has been brilliant. Boise State has faced a far easier schedule. Put it another way: a 13–0 Memphis team would have had a serious case for the #4 playoff spot. An undefeated Boise State team would be about equal to 12–1 Memphis in the Group of Five rankings. Win your games, kids.

TIER VII — THESE ARE ALSO TOP 25 TEAMS

20. Navy 10–2 (20) 21. Kansas State 8–4 (NR) 22. SMU 10–2 (NR) 23. Appalachian State 11–1 (21) 24. Air Force 10–2 (NR) 25. Cincinnati 10–2 (18)

Go ahead and rank your USC and Texas squads here if you like, with their four or five losses in almost all their meaningful games. I prefer to recognize the strength of the AAC by including four of their teams in the top 25 — that’s Memphis, Navy, SMU, and Cincinnati. Isn’t it ironic that Central Florida finally fell back to earth a bit the one year their conference finally stood up?

None of the rest are particularly interesting or relevant to the national conversation. Kansas State comes in as the best four-loss team and third best in the Big XII thanks to its win over Oklahoma.

Yawn.

Super. Now let’s get to the rankings that really matter: the potential CFP rankings, depending on how conference championship weekend shakes out. Here’s how I see things…

THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF RANKINGS

1. LSU 13–0 (beats Georgia) 2. Ohio State 13–0 (beats Wisconsin) 3. Georgia 12–1 (beats LSU) 4. Clemson 13–0 (beats Virginia) 5. Oklahoma or Baylor 12–1 (winner of Big XII Championship) 6. LSU 12–1 (loses to Georgia) 7. Ohio State 12–1 (loses to Wisconsin) 8. Utah 12–1 (beats Oregon) 9. Clemson 12–1 (loses to Virginia) 10. Wisconsin 11–2 (beats Ohio State)

Most of this is explained above, if you go back and parse things.

LSU, Ohio State, Georgia, and Clemson quite obviously control their destiny. And yes, Georgia ahead of Clemson if both win, but that’s cosmetic at that point.

Oklahoma and Baylor also control their destiny. Georgia and LSU can’t both win, so that leaves the Sooners/Bears winner at #4, the top one-loss team. LSU and Ohio State have the better resume, but the committee has consistently shown it prefers conference champions.

Having said that, Utah ranks behind one-loss LSU and Ohio State, even with that criteria. They just haven’t beaten anyone, and Oregon isn’t going to move the needle enough to change that. I can’t see Utah getting in over the SEC, Big Ten, or Big XII champion. That means their only real path is probably hoping the favorites win there and then praying for a Clemson loss to open a spot.

Clemson is almost certainly out with a loss, which has been true all season in the awful ACC. They would need a very specific set of results to have a shot. In fact, let’s look at some of the scenarios and which four teams make the playoffs in each…

CFP SCENARIOS

LSU misses playoffs if…

L to Georgia (1) + Ohio State W (2) + Clemson W (3) + OU/Baylor (4)

Ohio State misses playoffs if…

L to Wisconsin + Georgia over LSU (1, 2) + Clemson W (3) + OU/Baylor (4)

Clemson misses playoffs if…

L to UVA + LSU W (1) + Ohio State (2) + OU/Baylor (3) + Utah W (4) OR L to UVA + Georgia over LSU (1, 2) + Ohio State (3) + OU/Baylor (4)

Utah makes playoffs if…

Utah W (1) + LSU W (2) + Ohio State W (3) + Clemson L + OU/Baylor (4)

Oklahoma/Baylor winner misses playoffs if…

They don’t. Oklahoma and Baylor win and they’re in.

MAJOR BOWL PROJECTIONS

Sugar Bowl

Auburn vs Baylor

Rose Bowl

Utah vs Penn State

Orange Bowl

Virginia vs Florida

Cotton Bowl

Memphis vs Alabama

Fiesta Bowl national semifinal

(2) Ohio State vs (3) Clemson

Chick-fil-A Bowl national semifinal

(1) LSU vs (4) Oklahoma ■

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