College Football Top 25 Power Rankings & the Latest Playoff Picture

LSU is a clear #1, but who’s #4 now, and what does the NCAAF playoff picture look like after a wild college football weekend?

WE WAITED ALL YEAR FOR THE BIGGEST WEEKEND IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL, AND IT DID NOT DISAPPOINT. LSU and Alabama played the Game of the Year in Tuscaloosa, and the Tigers thrashed the Crimson Tide. The final score was a deceiving 46–41, but LSU was up 20 and scored on Bama’s vaunted defense anytime they wanted, coasting to victory on the road. Meanwhile, Minnesota survived a late push by Penn State to remain undefeated, and Baylor needed triple overtime to stay unbeaten on a wild Saturday of football.

All of that left us with a clear top three atop the polls, but it is an absolute mess after that, and with only half a month left in the 2019 college football regular season. One month from right now, we will have our College Football Playoff (CFP) set. So what do the new Top 25 Power Rankings look like, and what in the world does the playoff picture look like going forward?

TIER I — A LEVEL ABOVE THE REST

1. LSU 9–0 (Last week: 1) 2. Ohio State 9–0 (2)

Is there any real question which two teams are the best in college football this season? Sorry Clemson, but there’s just no argument at this point.

As much fun as it is to debate the College Football Playoff, this is shaping up to be a year where the good old BCS would’ve done. Hopefully we get to see LSU and Ohio State play on January 13, and it’s looking like that would pit the top-two Heisman finishers too in Joe Burrow and Justin Fields.

LSU now has wins over Texas, Florida, Auburn, and Alabama. Bama and UT were on the road, and LSU led all four opponent by double digits in the fourth quarter (before late Texas and Alabama garbage-time TDs). If LSU isn’t #1 in the new CFP rankings, it’s time to find a new system.

TIER II — WHAT A MESS

3. Clemson 10–0 (5) 4. Georgia 8–1 (6) 5. North Dakota State 10–0 (7) 6. Baylor 9–0 (9) 7. Oregon 8–1 (8) 8. Minnesota 9–0 (12) 9. Penn State 8–1 (3)

Clemson is #3, but they’re closer to the rest of the pack than the top two. There’s a reason Clemson was fifth in the initial CFP rankings. The ACC sucks, and the Tigers just haven’t played anyone worth noting. This week’s Top 25 has only Clemson ranked, and no one else was particularly close. Clemson is the defending national champion, and there’s 0.00% chance of them missing the playoffs at 13–0, but they’ll be mostly untested if and when they arrive.

The real question begins at #4 in the rankings, and I think Georgia is a clear pick there. Only LSU has a more impressive pair of victories than UGA’s two against Notre Dame and Florida. Georgia will solidify its hold on #4 with a win this weekend. They visit Auburn, so it won’t be easy. A win also puts them in the SEC title game.

I ranked my NDSU Bison at #25 to start the season as sort of a tongue-in-cheek shout to my boys, and then when they kept beating great teams, I kept moving them up accordingly. North Dakota State plays in the FCS version of the SEC. They already have seven wins over Top 25 teams, four of which were top 10 at the time of the game. They’ve won those games by a combined score of 274 to 95, an average score of 39–14. I genuinely think NDSU would hold their own and probably beat any team ranked below them. Why not give them a shot in the CFP with the big boys?

Baylor is severely underranked and disrespected at this point. They may not have a single marquee win, but they’ve won at Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and TCU. Road victories over good Big 12 bowl teams are about as quality as a home victory against #10 or 15. Baylor has won five games by only one score, but none of that matters if they keep on winning. And about that marquee win? Bring on Oklahoma and College GameDay this Saturday.

Oregon really needed to take care of business in the season opener against Auburn. Instead they’ll have to hope 12–1 is good enough, and in a mediocre PAC-12, it might not be. Oregon is basically Clemson, but the Tigers beat Texas A&M in their one marquee game and UO lost theirs. All the PAC-12 teams around them keep beating each other, making every Oregon win less and less valuable.

Minnesota survived against Penn State and jumps them into the top 10 for the first time. The Gophers still have to play Iowa and Wisconsin, and then Ohio State if they survive those. It was a great weekend for Minnesota football. Let’s do it again soon.

Shame on the voters for dropping Alabama one spot but crushing Penn State in the rankings. Alabama got manhandled and exposed at home, and if you think otherwise, then you weren’t watching. Penn State lost in the final minutes of a toss-up game on the road against a top-10 team that got every single call. You could argue Penn State may not even deserve to drop after that. There’s no question they should rank ahead of Alabama.

TIER III — GREAT TEAMS BUT YOU GOTTA WIN

10. Oklahoma 8–1 (10) 11. Auburn 7–2 (13) 12. Alabama 8–1 (4) 13. Florida 8–2 (14)

Do I really think the nine teams above Tier III are better teams than these four? Would they really beat them head to head? Would they even be favored?!

It honestly doesn’t matter. I believe the Golden State Warriors were the best team in NBA history in 2016, but they didn’t win the championship, and flags fly forever. You play to win the game. You don’t play to look good and have everything think you were the best, even though you didn’t actually win when it mattered. These four teams are really, really good. But rankings are about resumes, and at some point, you gotta beat the schedule in front of you.

Oklahoma has struggled in three of their last four, and their defense can’t stop anyone anymore. Should the Sooners make the playoffs if they win out and finish 12–1? That’s an irrelevant question. The way this team is playing, there’s just no way they’re winning at Baylor and Oklahoma State and then winning a Big 12 title game too.

Auburn and Florida are by far the best 2-loss teams. The Gators beat Auburn, but the Tigers beat Oregon and won at A&M. Auburn no longer has a realistic path to the playoffs, but they could play kingmaker or destroyer over the next few weeks as they host both Georgia and Alabama. Even by winning out, Auburn is still 10–2 and has no real shot at the SEC Championship Game, so they’d need an awful lot of shenanigans to have a CFP case.

Alabama’s best win is at A&M, the same win Auburn had. Both teams lost to LSU, but Auburn lost a close one in Baton Rouge and Bama got dominated at home. Auburn has that second loss at Florida, but they also have the Oregon win. And while all of that is absolutely true, if you don’t think I slid Auburn one spot in front of Alabama fans just to troll, you just don’t know me too well.

TIER IV — THE BEST OF THE REST

14. Utah 8–1 (11) 15. Michigan 7–2 (15) 16. Texas 6–3 (23) 17. Wisconsin 7–2 (18) 18. Notre Dame 7–2 (17)

These teams will all play in some interesting bowl game, but we’ve reached the end of teams that have any realistic shout for the playoffs.

Utah is Clemson but without the A&M win or even Oregon’s close Auburn loss, and without the pedigree or history. Utah’s only chance at a meaningful win is against an 11–1 Oregon in a potential PAC-12 Championship Game. Even that probably won’t be enough, but we’ll get to that below.

Michigan, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame are good but not great, just like pretty much every other year. It was fun while it lasted. Texas is the best 3-loss team by a pretty wide margin. They lost by a TD to LSU and Oklahoma, and they beat Kansas State and Oklahoma State, both of whom are in the conversation for second best 3-loss team. None of that matters, of course. Just know that the Longhorns have just as good a chance to win in Baylor as the Sooners.

TIER V — THE GROUP OF FIVE RACE

19. Memphis 8–1 (19) 20. SMU 9–1 (20) 21. Kansas State 6–3 (16) 22. Appalachian State 8–1 (NR) 23. Boise State 8–1 (NR) 24. Navy 7–1 (25) 25. Cincinnati (24)

We know the best team from the Group of Five gets one of the New Years Six bowls, and this year we actually have a race. There will be no undefeated UCF or Boise State clamoring for a playoff spot, but the race for that big bowl game should be close and intense.

Except maybe it’s not really all that up for grabs. You’re forgiven for not knowing your Group of Five conference breakdowns, but let me point out that Memphis, SMU, Navy, and Cincinnati are all in the American Athletic Conference (AAC). So are UCF, Temple, and Tulane, three other definitely-good-already-bowl-eligible teams.

The AAC has been terrific this fall. Memphis beat Ole Miss. Temple beat Maryland. UCF beat Stanford. Cincinnati beat UCLA. None of those opponents are that special, but it shows you the AAC’s quality. Are we sure the AAC champion isn’t just as quality as a PAC-12 champ or an ACC champ this fall? If Memphis, SMU, Navy, or Cincy win out and finish 12–1 as AAC champs, they will also be worthy of a top 10 ranking and a clear Group of Five winner. But it won’t be easy; every one of them would have to beat two of each other to do so.

If none of them do it, the honors should fall to Appalachian State or Boise State. Boise has certainly had the tougher schedule in the Mountain West, but all respect to App State, who now has road victories against both North and South Carolina. Remember, that’s same SC that won at Georgia and the same UNC that lost by only a point to Clemson.

Kansas State doesn’t fit this tier’s theme, but they do stay in the top 25 even after a third loss. I’m not particularly interested in Indiana or Wake Forest at this point, each with two losses and neither with even a top-50 win. Texas A&M will get votes at 6–3 in the SEC, but they’ve beaten no one, and Oklahoma State has the much better 6–3 resume. Honestly, I’d rank 6–4 USC over any of them. They might quietly be second best in the PAC-12.

THE PLAYOFF PICTURE GOING FORWARD

Okay, so what’s it all mean?

Only four teams can make the College Football Playoff. Let’s look at best-case scenarios for all the relevant teams and order them by playoff chances.

Right now, after all the weekend chaos, there are six teams that still control their destiny (barring something super crazy). Here are the hypothetical CFP rankings going forward:

6 teams control their destiny

1. 13–0 LSU 2. 13–0 Ohio State 3. 13–0 Minnesota 4. 12–1 SEC champ Georgia 5. 12–1 SEC champ LSU 6. 13–0 Clemson 7. 12–1 B10 champ Penn State 8. 12–1 B10 champ Ohio State 9. 12–1 LSU with a loss in the SEC title game

If Clemson wins out, they’re in. No matter how weak the ACC has been, you’re not leaving out an unbeaten defending national champion. Though I wouldn’t be surprised if they end up ranked #4 behind one of those one-loss teams.

The SEC champ is in, in almost any scenario. That’s just how this works. LSU is almost a lock to make the playoffs at this point. They’re not going to lose to Ole Miss or Arkansas (which eliminates Alabama or Auburn from making the SEC Championship), so they’d need to lose at A&M and again in the SEC title game to miss out. Georgia winning out would do the trick too. That’s two.

The Big 10 champ is just as safe. Those two conferences stand above the rest, and the committee isn’t leaving their champion out. Ohio State can lose a game and still make the B10 title game, unless that loss is to Penn State. The Nittany Lions still control their own fate by winning out, and obviously Minnesota controls its undefeated fate.

The fourth “team” that controls its destiny at this point is LSU, again. If LSU goes 12–0 but loses to Georgia in the SEC title game, they get the fourth spot. Yes, above any Big 12 or PAC-12 team. Yes, even an undefeated Baylor. Unless LSU gets absolutely blown out, or Burrow gets hurt or something, they’re in at this point, even with a loss.

4 teams that need to win out and get a little help

10. 13–0 B12 champ Baylor 11. 12–1 B10 champ Minnesota with a close loss to Iowa or Wisconsin 12. 11–2 SEC champ Florida (Georgia would have to lose twice) 13. 12–1 B12 champ Oklahoma 14. 12–1 P12 champ Oregon over 11–2 Utah

The Big 10 is so strong at this point that Minnesota could probably afford a loss the next few weeks and still make the playoffs if they beat 12–0 Ohio State in the B10 Championship. Maybe not if it’s 11–1 Penn State again, but even then, Minnesota would be in good shape. Again: the Big Ten champ is getting in, in almost any scenario.

These other four just need to pretend that they control their own destiny, and root for LSU to win out. An LSU loss probably doesn’t knock the Tigers out, so all it really does is help someone else. If LSU goes 13–0, then only three of the above spots are taken and one of these teams controls its destiny. It’s awfully hard to imagine a 13–0 Baylor team left out. A four-team playoff without an undefeated Big 12 champ? Not very likely. You know what else isn’t very likely? Baylor beating Oklahoma twice, plus Texas, plus LSU and Georgia winning out before UGA wins a close one, plus Minnesota and Clemson winning out. That’s the scenario we’re talking about here. Baylor is fine — they just need to win the games in front of them.

The Florida scenario is a pretty sizable long shot. They’d need to win out, have Georgia lose at Auburn and vs A&M, and then win the SEC title game — preferably in dominant fashion over a 12–0 LSU.

Neither of those scenarios is probable, which means both Oklahoma and Oregon should feel pretty good about their chances if they keep on winning. Who should feel better? My bet would be Oklahoma. They’d arguably have three wins (Baylor twice and Texas) better than anything Oregon has. Notice that Oregon’s case is so flimsy that they need to win out and have Utah keep winning until the Ducks beat them.

Help! I need somebody (Help!)

15. 12–1 Ohio State with a loss in the B10 title game 16. 10–2 Auburn shut out of SEC title game 17. 11–1 Ohio State with a close loss to Penn State or Michigan 18. 11–1 Alabama shut out of SEC title game 19. 12–1 B12 champ Baylor loses to Oklahoma this week but wins rematch 20. 12–1 P12 champ Oregon over anything but 11–2 Utah 21. 12–1 ACC champ Clemson with a close home loss to Wake Forest 22. 12–1 P12 champ Utah with a win over 11–2 Oregon

We’ve veered into the ridiculous at this point, but let’s note a few points nonetheless. The easiest way we start to get into some of these scenarios is with any Clemson loss going forward. They basically need to go undefeated to keep their spot. Lose and suddenly we’ve got an SEC champ, a B10 champ, and maybe two spots up for grabs. In the tier above this, those spots get grabbed by a B12 champ that wins out or by Oregon, probably.

So this scenario probably now assumes a Clemson loss plus another loss by Oregon, Baylor, and Oklahoma — which is all pretty reasonable, honestly.

Ohio State is in pretty strong shape. Notice they still have a pretty good case as long as their one presumed loss is close.

It would take absolute chaos for Auburn to make the SEC Championship, but a 10–2 Auburn resume would still be awfully strong. They’d have recent wins over Georgia and Alabama and would have be the SEC #2 (as long as LSU wins out). I think they have the best shot of any team at winning out and making the playoffs even without a conference title.

Alabama would need two LSU losses to make the SEC title game, and LSU is a 21-point favorite at Ole Miss this week and about a 500-point favorite against Arkansas. It’s not happening. Alabama will need to win out and get to 11–1, adding a win over Auburn as its only top-25 win of the season. Look, that team simply does not have a real case for the playoffs. This was not a close loss to LSU. It was never in doubt, at home, with a defense that absolutely could not make a stop or get off the field. If it were up to me, I’d slide Alabama down another four or more spots in these rankings. Sorry, but the jersey alone is not enough. This team isn’t good enough. I’d vote for any Power Five conference champion over 11–1 Alabama.

Chaos reigns!!!

23. 12–2 B12 champ Oklahoma with revenge win over Baylor 24. 11–2 Georgia with a loss in the SEC title game 25. 12–1 Minnesota with a close loss in B10 championship 26. 12–1 Clemson with a loss in the ACC title game 27. 11–2 Penn State with a close loss to Minnesota in B10 championship

These are the last even remotely realistic playoff shouts, so we may as well include them. Oklahoma’s resume is pretty weak with two losses in a good-not-great Big 12. The other four teams here would have lost their most recent game, and historically the committee prefers conference champs and teams coming in at their peak. Basically, none of these scenarios happen unless all hell breaks loose the next few weeks.

So you’re telling me there’s a chance… ■

Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.