What’s Real or Fake for Every NBA Team after 15 Games?

Almost 20% of the way through the NBA season, it’s time to take stock around the league. What have we learned so far?

IT’S HARD TO BELIEVE, BUT WE’RE ALREADY OVER ONE SIXTH OF THE WAY THROUGH THE 2019–20 NBA REGULAR SEASON. We’ve already got 239 games in the book, exactly 18.7% of the way there, and every team in the league has played at least 15 games. We’re still a long way from the playoffs, but the league is starting to take shape. Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Los Angeles teams rule the league, and the rest of the playoff picture already makes sense for the most part.

Fifteen games is enough to have a real sample on where these teams are headed, but it’s also little enough to trick us into thinking one thing when another is true. So what’s real and what’s fake for every NBA team thus far?

Let’s go around the league with 30 seconds for 30 teams, starting with the best in the NBA and working our way to the Warriors. Yep, that’s still weird…

TIER I — THE TITLE CONTENDERS

1. Milwaukee Bucks 13–3

The Bucks already have 10 wins by eight or more points. They’re top-6 in both offense and defense, the league’s best team despite giving away Malcolm Brogdon and getting basically nothing from Khris Middleton so far.

The scary thing is the Bucks might be even better than this. They’re taking the second most threes and free throws but rank 23rd and 29th in shooting percentages. Some of that bad shooting is Antetokounmpo, but they’ll be even better once guys like Middleton and Brook Lopez start hitting.

Giannis is on pace for a 9.7 VORP season. That would rank top-20 all time and top-5 this decade. He is unquestionably the MVP thus far, whether that’s a fun narrative or not.

2. Los Angeles Lakers 14–2

The Lakers defense is real. There were shades of that last year and now they added Anthony Davis, Dwight Howard, and an engaged LeBron. L.A. leads the league in blocks, forces a lot of turnovers, dominates the boards, and plays four plus defenders much of the game.

The offense may be a bit of a mirage, though. The Lakers are in the bottom quartile on both three point and free throw attempts. They’re relying heavily on James on offense. Davis has taken a step back offensively after a breakout campaign, and no one else on this team can do much unless LeBron serves it up on a platter.

The truth is this team is a lot like what we thought the 76ers would be, with the same strengths and flaws. When the games matter and this team has to sacrifice size and defense for half-court offense, will they find the right balance?

3. Los Angeles Clippers 12–5

The Clippers rank top-10 on both offense and defense, and that’s pretty impressive considering L.A. has played 16 but gotten just 16 games combined from Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. PG’s been better than ever since returning, and Kawhi is back to being The Klaw on defense.

But the reality is Montrezl Harrell, Patrick Beverley, and Lou Williams have carried this team so far, each taking on a huge load. There’s not a ton of depth on this team, and the Clips need to make sure they don’t burn those three out in their efforts to keep PG and Kawhi load-managed.

TIER II — CHALLENGERS TO THE THRONE

4. Philadelphia 76ers 11–5

So far the 76ers have been… sort of exactly what we expected. We knew they were huge, and Philly is crushing opponents on the boards. They’re using all that length to limit opponent threes, #1 in the league in both makes and attempts allowed.

We knew they wouldn’t shoot, and they’re league average on 3% but 25th in attempts. They’re not drawing fouls either, so it’s tough to have an efficient offense that way. We also knew they had no bench, and that’s been true too, outside of rookie Matisse Thybulle being an absolute monster on defense (and even uglier ogre on offense). The Sixers are who we thought they were. We just don’t know if that’s good enough yet.

5. Denver Nuggets 12–3

The Nuggets own the NBA’s third best record, despite getting little buzz. These aren’t the Nugs you expect. They’re bottom-10 in offense but #3 on defense, and Gary Harris is starting to get some All-Defense buzz.

Denver has found its starting five — Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap, and Jokic are all at least +11 on/off — but a team that was supposed to be one of the league’s deepest is really struggling off the bench. Jerami Grant hasn’t fit in, and Monte Morris and Malik Beasley have gone ice cold. Denver’s defense will regress some from shooting luck, but their offense should improve a lot, too.

6. Boston Celtics 11–4

The Celtics have the fewest turnovers in the league and get hammered on the boards, but you probably know both of those things. Boston may need to find a way to get Robert Williams on the court more. His advanced metrics are off the charts, and he’s second on the team in VORP despite playing the ninth most minutes.

Boston’s top-5 defense is due for some regression, since they’re also top-5 in both field goal and three point percentage allowed. Look for a Celtics regression with Kemba Walker and Gordon Hayward out awhile.

7. Toronto Raptors 11–4

Look, it’s not that Pascal Siakam is overrated. I’ve been on the Siakam train for a year. He’s amazing, and his continued improvement is a lot of fun. But we are doing a disservice by pretending Siakam is in the MVP race — a disservice to Pascal’s teammates who have also been so good.

OG Anunoby has been a wing stopper and the second best Raptor while he’s hitting 50% of his threes. Fred VanVleet is getting to the line more and his assist rate is way up. And then guys like Terence Davis, Chris Boucher, and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson are mashing off the bench out of nowhere. Let’s give Siakam credit, but let’s not forget about the other guys.

TIER III — DEFINITE PLAYOFF TEAMS

8. Houston Rockets 11–6

The Rockets profile looks a lot like James Harden as an entire team, which is basically what Houston is. The Rox somehow rank #1 in both three point and free throw attempt rate. That’s kind of crazy, if you think about it.

Houston is winning almost exclusively with math. They’re average on defense and not particularly great at shooting; they’re just taking more valuable shots than everyone else. Houston’s #1 in threes at 45.6 attempts per game but makes only 34%, bottom-5 in the league.

Russell Westbrook is hitting a putrid 22% on six threes a game. Westbrook’s true shooting is worse than ever at 49%, and he’s doing less of the thing he’s best at: creating. Westbrook’s rebounding is down too, so fewer transition buckets. He’s on pace for a sub-2 VORP, compared to 12.4 three years ago. So long, triple-double threat. Hello, worst contract in the NBA?

9. Utah Jazz 11–5

Remember how Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic were supposed to transform this offense but leave some question marks defensively? Utah ranks 22nd on offense and #1 on D. Welp. The Jazz are eschewing offensive boards to get back on D. They’re also turning it over a lot without forcing many turnovers of their own. That’s a lot of missing possessions this offense isn’t getting.

But it’s not just that. Spida and Bojan have been the only two positives on offense. Gobert isn’t getting as many easy looks, and Conley and Joe Ingles have looked old and inefficient. It’s the same old Utah until they make some improvements on offense.

10. Miami Heat 11–4

The Heat are the league’s biggest surprise, but there’s some offensive regression coming. Miami has four guys hitting two 3s a game at 38% or better, and they rank #1 in effective field goal percentage. Despite all that shooting, they’re barely above league average offensively, and they’ve had a few ugly losses when the shooting regression hits hard. That could be more of a problem going forward.

Jimmy Butler is quietly having an MVP-ballot kind of start in Miami. His free throw and assist rates are way up, and his defense is better than ever. He’s found his home. Also, these? These are definitely real:

11. Dallas Mavericks 11–5

I want to write about something other than Luka Doncic, but also I don’t. The Mavs have the league’s #1 offense, and there’s exactly one reason why. Luka is four assists away from averaging 30/10/10 one-fifth of the way through the season at age 20!!

Doncic is on pace for a top-5 all-time VORP season. He has the second best OBPM in NBA history right now, behind only Stephen Curry’s 2016 unanimous MVP season. Will he keep those numbers up? Probably not. But the fact that we have to include the word “probably” comparing 20-year-old Luka to the best seasons in NBA history is absolutely bonkers.

We need to stop pretending like both the Mavs and Hawks won the draft trade. Trae Young is an All-Star and future All-NBA player. Luka looks like a Hall of Fame multi-time MVP that could be the greatest European player of all time.

12. Indiana Pacers 9–6

So many East teams have surprised that people are really overlooking the Pacers. Indiana already looks as good as the team we hoped they’d become — but they’ve lost 28 games from their top four, including all 15 from Victor Oladipo, of course.

Indiana is getting an All-Star season from Malcolm Brogdon and looks like a team that could make a run once they get healthy. But they need to work on finding more valuable shots. The Pacers are second to last in threes attempted and dead last in free throws.

TIER IV — STARTING TO BELIEVE JUST A LITTLE…

13. Phoenix Suns 8–8

The Suns are slowing down, losing six of nine, but still rank top 12 on both offense and defense. It’s no coincidence that their regression has coincided with the absence of Ricky Rubio and Aron Baynes.

The Suns are an elite shooting team. They’re top-10 in free throw rate and %, as well as three point rate and %. That will lead to a lot of good offense. But Dario Saric and Frank Kaminsky aren’t producing efficient offense, while Kelly Oubre and Mikal Bridges have been good and need more time on the court. How will Phoenix get them out there, and what will they do with Baynes once Ayton’s suspension ends in 10 games?

14. Minnesota Timberwolves 8–8

The Wolves took the 26th most threes in the NBA last year. They’ve taken third most this year. They allowed the 24th most three point attempts last season but the seventh fewest this year. That’s the sort of change Gersson Rosas has brought to this organization, even if the results haven’t exactly worked yet — Minnesota ranks 29th in the NBA at 31.1% shooting from deep and 28th on D at 38.8% allowed.

The Wolves are trusting the process and assuming the numbers will come later. No one outside of Towns and Wiggins (!!) is really contributing offensively, and the truth is there’s just not a ton of talent on the roster. Just goes to show how much coaching alone can improve a team.

15. Brooklyn Nets 8–8

The Nets are an average team that looks the part so far, outside of Kyrie Irving. Caris LeVert has been bad and is out another month. Taurean Prince isn’t adding any efficient offense. Spencer Dinwiddie is, but he’s getting killed on defense.

The bench is underwhelming. And the center platoon is still a major question, as DeAndre Jordan has far better advanced metrics but doesn’t get to play with Kyrie much so Jarrett Allen’s on/off metrics dominate. This team is average. Good thing that’s enough in the East.

16. New Orleans Pelicans 6–11

It might be time to start taking the New Orleans Pelicans seriously. The Pels have hung around despite almost everything going wrong out of the gates. They faced a brutal opening schedule and got a rough start from Jrue Holiday and Derrick Favors, plus a slew of injuries to almost everyone on the team.

Despite all that, they’re only two wins out of the 8-seed. The Pels are top-5 in threes and getting real breakouts from Brandon Ingram and glue guys Kenrich Williams and Josh Hart. The defense is bad but improving, and will only get better as Holiday and Favors get healthy. Oh, and Zion Williamson is on track to make his debut in a few weeks. The Pelicans are coming.

TIER V — STILL SOME PLAYOFF HOPES, I GUESS??

17. San Antonio Spurs 6–11

The Spurs eight-game losing streak is finally over, and they’re still only two wins back from the 8-seed. San Antonio is top-5 on offense but bottom-5 on D… wait, what? This despite the Spurs ranking dead last in threes, thanks to an old school profile, winning the turnovers game and destroying on the glass.

It’s the D that’s letting them down, and that should give Spurs fans hope because you know Pop will make the defense work. DeMar DeRozan is a big part of the problem. He’s having his best offensive Spurs year but his D is worse than ever, in part because he’s playing small forward next to Bryn Forbes. The Spurs are finally starting Jakob Poltl, and that should help, but they need to get Derrick White out there, too.

18. Orlando Magic 6–9

For better or worse, the Magic are almost the exact same team we got last year. They’re really bad at offense (bottom 5), top-10 on D, last in pace, and tough to watch. They dominate the boards but can’t shoot to save their lives, dead last in both field goal and three point percentage.

Last year’s team got breakout offensive campaigns from Nikola Vucevic and D.J. Augustin. Those two have regressed hard, and now Vooch is out a month, but Evan Fournier is this year’s breakout player on offense, and Jonny Isaac is a DPOY candidate carrying the other end.

19. Oklahoma City Thunder 5–10

The Thunder are more average than bad, but they’ve lost seven games by five or fewer points without a close win. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is getting all the attention, averaging almost 20/5/3 on over 40% from deep, but the advanced metrics are pretty average — which is fine at age 21.

But the truth is that even a CP3 and Danilo Gallinari are still this team’s best players and its intriguing trade candidates. Gallo is nearly matching last year’s All-Star level production, and Chris Paul may not be Point God anymore but he’s still top-25 in OBPM.

20. Portland Trail Blazers 5–12

The Blazers look bad. They’re much worse than last year on both offense and defense. They’re getting murdered on the boards, and they’re last in assists. Truthfully, it’s taken an MVP start from Damian Lillard to even stay at this level.

CJ McCollum is taking more twos (at 46%) and fewer free throws than ever. He leads the NBA in minutes and just isn’t as good as you think. No Blazer other than Dame projects to even a 1.0 VORP this season, and there’s no timetable for Jusuf Nurkic or Zach Collins. It’s time to be very worried — and maybe to wonder what McCollum might look like in another jersey.

21. Detroit Pistons 5–11

I really want to give credit to Andre Drummond, whose 18.5 points and 16.7 rebounds a game and towering defense are hard to ignore. But here’s the thing: Detroit is still below average on both defense and rebounding.

Really, they’re below average at almost everything except for 3%, where they’re randomly second best at 39% (regression alert!). Blake Griffin has only played four games, but unless he totally changes this team, they’re just not really good at anything in particular.

22. Sacramento Kings 7–8

The Kings have clawed back into contention, but their metrics remain pretty weak. They’re below average in most metrics and look more like a 5–10 team than a 7–8 one, but they’re hanging in there without De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley.

The truth is neither Fox nor Bagley have been good anyway. Bagley only got one game but was awful and Fox looked bad early. If the Kings can stay afloat and get those two back and better than ever, maybe they can turn this around. For now, go ahead and sell this year’s Kings stock.

23. Washington Wizards 5–9

Did anyone see the Wizards contending for best offense in the league? They’re #2 right now. We should probably be paying more attention to Bradley Beal, the 30/5/7 engine of such an unexpectedly good offense, but it’s not just him.

This team is just composed of guys that are good at shooting and scoring. Washington is #1 in the league in field goal percentage, and they rank top-5 in two, three, and free throw percentage. Guys like Davis Bertans, Thomas Bryant, and Rui Hachimura just score the rock. Of course, the Wizards are dead last defensively too, so don’t get too excited.

Fun fact: the Wizards are the only team in the NBA yet to play 15 games. Fine, that’s not fun, but it’s a fact nevertheless.

TIER VI — STOP KIDDING YOURSELF, EVEN OUT EAST

24. Charlotte Hornets 6–11

The Hornets are not particularly good or interesting — they’re just a little less not particularly good or interesting than everyone expected. The defense is well coached (few free throws allowed and plenty of TOs forced) but bad overall (terrible shot profile and rebounding).

Devonte’ Graham can’t keep shooting like this forever, but he and PJ Washington both look like something real, and that’s two more somethings real Charlotte has than a month ago.

25. Cleveland Cavaliers 5–11

John Beilein’s fingerprints are all over this team. It’s quite impressive. The Cavs are top-10 in fewest turnovers, and they’re #1 in fewest free throws allowed defensively. Those are marks of good coaching, both Beilein staples from all his college teams.

If you don’t give the opponent easy points, it turns out the game is much easier. That’s all the more impressive for a team entirely built around two young lead guards in Collin Sexton and Darius Garland, who have been bad and abysmal so far.

26. Chicago Bulls 6–11

The Bulls can’t shoot, get killed on the glass, and foul more than any team. They’re 6–11 despite a gift of an opening schedule. It doesn’t help that they’ve gotten nothing from their best player so far — yes, that’s Otto Porter.

The Bulls actually be even worse than they look. They’re somehow above league average on defense right now, playing an uber aggressive D that leads the league in turnovers forced but always leaves them out of position. What happens when the soft schedule ends, teams stop turning it over, and the Bulls can’t score or stop anyone? Jim Boylen gets fired, hopefully.

27. Atlanta Hawks 4–12

The Hawks are atrocious — but don’t blame Trae Young. Trae has been amazing offensively, but he hasn’t gotten any help. John Collins has barely played, and Kevin Huerter has really struggled returning from injury. Rookie wings De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish have been bad and abhorrent.

All you need to know is that Jabari Parker has played the third most minutes on the team, and he’s probably been Atlanta’s second best player. Woof.

TIER VII — BRING ON THE TANK

28. Memphis Grizzlies 5–10

Memphis ranks dead last on offense and has lost six times by more than 15 points. The Grizzlies rank bottom-5 in both three point and free throw attempts, and the defense is still pretty bad. They’re going to lose a lot.

But this year’s draft looks legit. Ja Morant has shown impressive passing chops and is scoring quite efficiently for a rookie point guard, and Brandon Clarke already looks like a massive steal at 67% true shooting, 4.2% block percentage, and the best advanced metrics of any rookie. It’s been a disappointing sophomore start for Jaren Jackson Jr., but Memphis’s future is bright with those three around.

29. New York Knicks 4–13

The Knicks can’t shoot to save their lives. They’re making only 45.7% of their field goals and 67.5% of their free throws, both dead last in the NBA. Four of their top five players in minutes are under 50% true shooting. That’s really, really bad.

Rookie RJ Barrett leads the way there, of course. His 15 points, 5-and-a-half boards, and 3-and-a-half dimes look nice enough until you see the brutal 43% on twos and 49% from the line. Also, New York is somehow bottom-5 in pace. Knicks, WYD? Let the kids run.

30. Golden State Warriors 3–14

The Warriors are horrifyingly awful. They’re terrible on offense and worse on defense. Golden State already has 12 losses by more than five points. They’re not even competitive, and only the Knicks could stop them from the league’s worst record.

The Warriors are bottom-5 in threes and dead last in efg% allowed. Jordan Poole is a one-man tanking machine at 38% true shooting and 3.6 PER. Draymond’s numbers are terrible and would be a huge red flag if these games weren’t utterly meaningless. They can sell this as a development year, but there’s precious little to bother developing. Bring on James Wiseman. ■

All stats and numbers updated through November 23 from Basketball Reference. Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.