It’s Time for a 2016 NBA Re-Draft
Does Ben Simmons still go #1? Just how good are Pascal Siakam and Brandon Ingram? Let’s redraft the full 2016 NBA draft lottery.
THE 2016 NBA DRAFT FEELS SO LONG AGO NOW. Ben Simmons has already had four rookie seasons, Dragan Bender and Georgios Papagiannis have washed out of the league, and undrafted Freddy VanVleet is an NBA champion. A lot can happen in three years and change.
This draft is back in the NBA conversation again since all of these players are entering the final year of their rookie deals, and just a couple weeks ago, so many of them just signed big rookie deal extensions. That makes it as good a time as any to go back to 2016 and do a full NBA Re-Draft.
If every player from the 2016 draft was available on a new contract today, who would go number one? Would it still be Ben Simmons, or would guys like Jamal Murray or Pascal Siakam push him at the top? Buddy Hield and Domantas Sabonis broke out last season — where do they fit in? Let’s redraft the full 2016 lottery and break down each player’s prospects moving forward. Buckle up, it’s gonna be a bumpy ride…
TIER I — THE FRANCHISE CORNERSTONES
1. Ben Simmons (Actual draft pick: 1) 2. Pascal Siakam (27)
I thought I was going to spend this section arguing why Pascal Siakam is in fact the #2 player in this draft and why he does belong there next to Ben Simmons at the top of the class. And then, on a whim, I ran this poll:
Well, okay, then.
The people are in on Pascal Siakam. A couple weeks ago when Siakam got his max extension, it felt like there were a lot of questions. I was not one of them. The Siakam we saw win Most Improved Player last year, the #2 guy on an NBA champion last summer — that player was always worth a max, even if he didn’t take a leap forward.
And then the season started and Siakam averaged 28 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists over the first four games, hitting 44% of his 5+ threes a game for 62.6% true shooting while playing outstanding defense, all despite stepping into a star role that saw his usage leap from 21 to 33%.
It sure looks like Pascal Siakam is a star. Like, a capital-S Superstar. At this point, the only question about Siakam’s max contract is whether it will actually cost more than $130 million over the next four years. If Siakam makes 2nd Team All-NBA, that number goes up, and that looks like a serious possibility. You know Giannis, LeBron, and Kawhi are finishing ahead of Siakam at forward, but is anyone else a lock? Durant is out. Paul George and Blake Griffin are hurt. Anthony Davis isn’t injured… yet. It’s still a murderer’s row, but the way Siakam is playing, he has an excellent shot at All-NBA and could contend for 2nd Team and a pay raise. Toronto will be ecstatic to give it to him.
Pascal Siakam is a superstar.
But so is Ben Simmons.
Simmons just turned 23, so he’s still just beginning to find his way in the NBA. He’s also a point guard, the position that historically takes longest for guys to figure out and often takes until age 25 or later. You know what other skill often comes around later for players? Shooting.
And that’s good, cuz Simmons can’t shoot right now. He’s made one NBA three in his life, and it was a buzzer beater at the end of a quarter in a blowout preseason game. But it’s not just threes. Simmons shot 10.5% on long twos last season. He’s under 30% for his career from 10 to 16 feet. He’s still only 58% from the line, and none of those numbers have really improved.
Even worse, Simmons won’t shoot and doesn’t want to shoot and has turned this non-story into the only story. Teams are backing off, daring him to shoot, and Simmons shies away from the rim at times because he doesn’t want to get sent to the line. Late in games, he still can’t have the ball in his hands because he won’t shoot and won’t drive, and teams will happily foul him if he tries.
Ben. Simmons. Can’t. Shoot.
Whatever hand he’s using, that’s just a true fact right now. But it’s also staring at one ugly tree at the expense of the magical Ben Simmons forest.
Let’s talk about all the things Ben Simmons can do. Simmons is already an elite game-changing defensive guard when locked in. He has the size to guard one to five, one of maybe five or 10 such players in the entire NBA. Simmons is a monster in transition and an outstanding playmaker, averaging eight assists a game for his career. He’s a terrific rebounder too — even more of those than assists. Simmons is a versatile jackknife in the era of positionless basketball.
Ben Simmons is so good at so many other things that, if he ever adds a three pointer, he’ll be a perennial top-5 MVP candidate.
And it’s not like other stars were always great shooters. At Simmons’ age, LeBron was under 33% on threes. Giannis was under 28%. Those guys aren’t exactly shooters now, but they can take and make a shot. Simmons is ahead of both at age 23 on two-point efficiency, hitting 56% versus 53% for Giannis and 49% for LeBron, one of the most efficient two-point scorers of all time.
But those numbers are deceiving, too. Simmons’ percentage is high in part because he’s so unwilling to shoot outside the paint. LeBron and Giannis were at least trying. Teams had to at least pretend to guard them beyond the arc. And both LeBron and Giannis were making over 73% of their free throws, showing at least a little shooting potential, versus 58% for Simmons. Those numbers matter. You don’t just suddenly learn to shoot overnight without ever trying or ever showing touch.
There’s almost no reason to believe Simmons will ever be a three point shooter. But we at least need him to make free throws and hit a 15-footer. Otherwise Simmons is just a center that can pass, and even that’s not fair — most NBA centers can shoot in 2019 now, too.
So, after all that, why Simmons ahead of Siakam?
Because I still believe there’s a version of Ben Simmons that can win MVP and be the best player on a championship contender, the type of mega star that changes everything for an NBA franchise. And as great as Pascal Siakam is, he’s not quite that guy.
Give me Simmons in a lineup with Josh Richardson, Matisse Thybulle, Tobias Harris, and Al Horford. Imagine that — an NBA attack with four shooters spacing the court so Simmons actually has room to drive to the rim and kick it out, rather than Joel Embiid clogging the paint and pounding the ball into oblivion in the post. Embiid still can’t shoot either (30% on threes the last two years). These two franchise players just don’t make sense on the same franchise. We still haven’t seen Ben Simmons, franchise player. We maybe never will, until he leaves Philly.
In the end, it probably depends on the team. If you’re starting a franchise and building a team from the foundation up, give me Simmons. Just know that we’re going to have to build a very specific roster around him to be successful — just like we’d need to for LeBron or Giannis or Steph or any other star. If you’ve already got your superstar, or if we already have a good team and are just trying to add a piece, now you might talk me into Siakam instead. He’s a much easier building block that works on almost any team in any system, and there’s real value to that.
Would Philadelphia be better if you swapped Siakam for Simmons? He fits a heck of a lot better next to Embiid, that’s for sure. What if the Sixers had traded Simmons for Siakam and then signed Kemba or Kyrie instead of Al Horford? Would you be intrigued by a roster of Kemba or Kyrie, JRich, Tobias, Siakam, and Embiid? It certainly makes a lot more sense. The defense has a clear weak link now, but the offense can actually breathe.
Alas, we have supersized Philly instead and Simmons in a second banana role he’s never going to be perfect for. Pascal Siakam looks like the second banana any team would die for. In the end, perhaps it’s just dealer’s choice.
TIER II — THE FRANCHISE BUILDING BLOCKS
3. Jamal Murray (7)
Strangely enough, Jamal Murray at #3 might be the surest pick in our redraft. He’s definitely not going ahead of Simmons or Siakam, but he’s also not going behind anyone else left on the board.
Jamal Murray might be both overrated and underrated all at once.
Murray’s numbers are underwhelming. His 18 points, 4 boards, and 5 assists a game are fine for a starting point guard in 2019. His 37% three is good, not great. His 48% on twos is decent. His 55% true shooting is meh.
Murray ranks sixth in the draft in win shares. He’s seventh in VORP, ninth in Box Plus/Minus (actually negative for his career), and sixteenth in win shares per 48 minutes. These are not the numbers of a star. They’re the numbers of Malcolm Brogdon. Worse, actually.
At the same time, the numbers will never tell the whole Jamal Murray story because they obscure how great Murray is with Nikola Jokic. The two play with such synergy, and Murray’s counting numbers suffer because of Jokic’s playmaking and Denver’s egalitarian offense.
He’s also one of the youngest players in the draft. Murray is still only 22 until after the All-Star break, and remember, point guards often break out around age 25. Murray should continue to improve for another three or four years. And he needs to, because Denver just gave Jamal Murray the full boat five-year max extension, a whopping $168 million with no outs. Murray will make $38 million in the final year of that deal.
He’s not worth anything close to that right now. As things stand, Murray is not a top 10 point guard. His trajectory should get him there at some point, but he feels more like a bottom-of-the-top-10 guy than a top-5 one. Will Jamal Murray ever make an All-NBA team? He’s never going to be a good defender, and it’s hard to see him being that good on offense, like Dame Lillard good. Maybe Murray is Kemba Walker?
It turns out, Dame and Kemba had pretty comparable numbers to Murray at the same age. Dame, in particular, is a near carbon copy with one important distinction: Lillard was a rookie at the same age Murray is now, in his fourth year in the NBA.
Jamal Murray is still so young. He has a long ways to go but still might get there. Murray is the one player in this draft that could eventually challenge Simmons or Siakam for that tip-top tier. But he could end up fifth or seventh best if he doesn’t keep taking steps forward.
Denver is betting $168 million on the former. And since they’ll keep Murray for his ages 23-to-28 seasons, history says it’s a pretty defensible bet.
TIER III — THE BIG HOME RUN SWINGS
4. Brandon Ingram (2) 5. Jaylen Brown (3) 6. Dejounte Murray (29)
When I did these rankings over the summer and settled on Brandon Ingram at #4, it looked like a scary pick. Ingram was still a long-term project more than anything. He had a breakout month as a sophomore and another great month last year but had otherwise been frustrating and inconsistent. Add in the serious health concerns and the fact that the Lakers felt no real need to keep Ingram around, and there was plenty to worry about.
And then the first two weeks of the season happened.
Ingram is averaging 27 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists. The list of guys to do that last season is just LeBron, Giannis, PG, and Embiid. More important is how he’s getting those numbers. Ingram is shooting the daylights out of the ball. He’s made 50% of his 32 threes, and the second number is even more important than the first. Ingram averaged two three-point attempts per game as a Laker. He’s taking 6.4 per game now, shooting confidently and hitting them with consistency. His true shooting is up from 52% in L.A. to over 62% in New Orleans, despite getting to the line less. His assist percentage has doubled. His rebounding rate is up over 50%.
Ingram is making the leap. In many ways, the Zion injury (Jrue too) might have been the best thing to happen to Brandon Ingram. He was always at his best in L.A. as The Guy, and now he’s taken the spotlight and run with it.
Ingram is the only player in this top 10 without a contract extension. Makes sense. For all the Zion hype, all the excitement for Lonzo and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and even for the playoff hopes in New Orleans, I always thought the development of Brandon Ingram was by far the most important thing for the Pelicans this season. Flash for a month then disappear like the last couple years and New Orleans might feel pressure to pay up to keep Ingram around as the centerpiece of the Anthony Davis trade, and suddenly they might have stuck Zion with his very own Andrew Wiggins contract.
This Brandon Ingram is no Andrew Wiggins. Ingram’s scored at least 22 points in all five games. Wiggins has only had four such streaks in his entire career, and scoring is literally the only thing Wiggins is good at. This Brandon Ingram is absolutely 100% getting a max contract next summer. Might Atlanta be interested in a 3-and-D playmaking wing to round out the lineup? Could the Grizz look at adding Ingram to Ja, Clarke, and JJJ? Would the Knicks like an actually talented player?
In the span of two weeks, Brandon Ingram just became the top free agent on the market next summer. And by the way, he just turned 22.
Ingram will definitely get more money than Jaylen Brown, and Brown just got an overstuffed $108-million extension he has little chance of living up to. Brown’s only 23, but doesn’t it feel like he’s played in the absolute perfect ecosystem to maximize his strengths and hide his weaknesses? What part of Jaylen Brown is scalable?
He’s a quality team defender but not an elite wing stopper. He’s an average shooter at best, 34% or below from deep in all but one season. He’s not a volume scorer and doesn’t have any creation equity. He doesn’t finish well. He doesn’t start well. He’s a very nice fourth-or-fifth-best rotation player.
And look, every great team needs a nice fourth or fifth player, and every team in the NBA would find wing minutes for Jaylen Brown. If Boston didn’t give him that $108 million, plenty of other teams would have. Supply and demand. Being a quality rotation wing makes Brown a top-5 player in this draft. But it doesn’t mean you want to be on the hook for $29.6 million in the final year of that deal.
My favorite rookie deal by far was Dejounte Murray. Murray quietly signed for four years at $64 million and everyone collectively shrugged. Maybe that’s because we haven’t seen Dejounte play for a year and kind of forgot that he was the best guard defender in the NBA by a sizable margin. Murray has filthy defensive numbers, like possible contention for Defensive Player of the Year numbers. That’s not supposed to happen for a point guard.
Is Dejounte Murray a point guard? That remains to be seen. He was under three assists a game when we last saw him, but he’s at 13 points, 8 boards, and 5 dimes this year. Five is fine, especially considering it’s the Spurs and Tony Parker averaged like five or six assists a game his entire Hall of Fame career. Murray’s free throw rate is way up, and his true shooting has skyrocketed from 49 to 59% thanks especially to incredible finishing at the rim (81%). Murray still can’t shoot — he’s literally made two shots outside six feet all season — but a boost to 79% at the line is encouraging.
All that touch means Murray should shoot eventually, and when he adds shooting to quality playmaking and terrorizing defense, Dejounte Murray will be a stud. He’s the exact sort of guy that will be perpetually underpaid and one that fits especially well next to the increasing number of playmaking wings around the league.
Dejounte just turned 23, so he’s much younger than the guys listed below him. Those point guard skills are still coming, and the Spurs have him locked up on a contract that pays him around one-eighth of the cap for four more years. If he figures things out offensively, he will end up one of the best bargain contracts in the entire NBA.
TIER IV — QUALITY NBA STARTERS
7. Buddy Hield (6) 8. Caris LeVert (20) 9. Malcolm Brogdon (36) 10. Domantas Sabonis (11)
I’m sure you think it’s crazy to rank one or two of these guys below Jaylen, Ingram, and Dejounte. You think your guy is straight up better right now, and frankly, you might not be wrong.
But there’s one really important factor you’re overlooking: age. The three guys just turned 22 and 23. The guys in this tier are 25 and older, and Buddy Hield literally aged two years last season. It’s not just that this tier has less athletic prime — like three years less. What’s more important is that there’s a good chance we already know what these players are, while Ingram, Jaylen, and Dejounte are still just scratching the surface. This tier could also have been called WE KNOW WHAT YOU ARE.
And what these guys are is quality NBA starters, but they’re not stars. The NBA is about stars. Ingram, Jaylen, and Dejounte might be stars. They might not, and they won’t all be, and maybe only one of them will be, but in this league you draft upside over sure thing rotation guys.
And I know — you think your guy is more than just a rotation guy. You think your favorite is even a potential All-Star. And maybe they are… once. On the right team, in the right year, with the right opportunity. That’s nice. That might make them top-40 or 50, but it doesn’t make them a game-changing star. In the NBA draft, you always gamble on stardom.
Buddy Hield is top of the tier, and you could argue he ought to be up in that Jamal Murray tier because shooting is just that valuable. But shooters who only shoot have only so much value. We haven’t seen Buddy defend with any competency or add much offense outside of his shooting. He’s an elite knockdown shooter, and I love the guy so much I wrote multiple articles about him coming out of college.
But if you give back just as much on defense as you score on the other end, how valuable are you really? How much will you play in the Conference Semis or beyond? How can you be a star if you’re the worst player on the court on D and ideally the third-best player on offense? It’s an archetype problem. Buddy is an awesome version of the score-first-score-only guard, but I don’t see that archetype as a winning player. His $94-million extension is solid for his type. He’d have gotten more from another team. I’m just not sure he’s going to show up on a real winning team at that price.
Caris LeVert signed his extension months ago, and his agent should probably be fired. He basically got the same money as Taurean Prince plus a few million and a third year he can’t opt out of. Zach Lowe repeatedly calls LeVert a future All-Star, and he was my pick for this season’s Most Improved Player award. LeVert is a jack-of-all-trades master-of-none. He doesn’t have the single-skill hook Buddy does, but he also doesn’t do anything that gets him taken off the court when it matters. If he can just shoot a little better, he might be the perfect third Nets star.
I didn’t love the Malcolm Brogdon deal. Indiana traded a first-round pick and paid $85 million for a guy that was perfect as the fifth-best player on a title contender. Brogdon is smart. He defends. He shoots at an elite level — 50/40/90 last year, albeit on limited attempts. He can play on or off the ball. He was perfect next to Giannis and will be great next to Victor Oladipo.
And you know what? He might just be really good. Brogdon is averaging 22 points and 11 assists and looks like a potential All-Star. I didn’t see that coming, but point guards blossom last, and Brogdon might still have a leap in him at age 26. There’s still a real path to Brogdon ending up something like the third or fourth best player in this draft and making good on that faux Rookie of the Year title after all.
I like Domantas Sabonis, but it’s another archetype problem. Sabonis is never going to be a great or probably even good defender. He’s clearly good on offense but not great and certainly not elite. If you’re a center that’s not top-10 on D or not top-5 on offense, then in 2019, you’re just another guy.
I love Sabonis mashing off the bench. As a starter, he’s below average, and that’s just not worth $74 million. Unlike the others in this tier, Sabonis is still youngish at 23. But big men typically mature earlier, and I’m not sure Sabonis is suddenly going to learn to play great D. Maybe he starts shooting threes a lot and makes good on that deal. It might be in another jersey.
TIER V — FLAGS FLY FOREVER
11. Fred VanVleet (undrafted)
VanVleet used to be in the tier above, but no matter how many times I rearranged those four names above him, FVV was always last. The others are all just a little bit better.
Don’t forget, Fred VanVleet wasn’t even drafted. Now he’s an NBA champion who showed out in the biggest games of his life. Dude got a Finals MVP vote. If that’s all that ever happens, that’s already a grand slam that puts him among the greatest undrafted players of all time.
Of course, FVV looks better than ever. He’s averaging 17 points a game, hitting 40% of his threes, and playing pesky D. He’s also drawing way more free throws this year, though guys really need to stop fouling him cuz he can’t finish at the rim to save his life.
Fred VanVleet is a champion, and everything else is gravy — but FVV plays in Canada, and they take their poutine seriously.
TIER V I— WELL THAT FELL OFF A CLIFF
12. Derrick Jones Jr. (undrafted) 13. Jakob Pöltl (9) 14. Malik Beasley (19)
There’s another reason Freddy gets his own tier — because holy cow does this draft fall off a cliff after him. We needed a tier break to show just how drastic it is. Everyone in the top 11 is a definite NBA player and probably a starter. From here forward, it’s bit role guys or shots in the dark.
I’m still shooting with Derrick Jones Jr. and betting on Miami development. Airplane Mode is a freak athlete that needs another crack at the dunk contest, but he might still be something more. I’ll always take a shot on an uber-athletic wing. We’ll see if he can shoot or add any value on offense.
Jakob Pöltl actually ranks third in this entire draft in VORP, which is nuts considering three guys in this class already have a max contract and no one even bothered offering Pöltl an extension. Pöltl is… fine. He’s a useful rotation big that’s looked good in two systems where big men usually look good. Everyone needs a Jakob Pöltl, but no one’s too excited to find one.
Malik Beasley is a lot more exciting. Many Nuggets looked like deer in the headlights during the playoffs, but I always wanted the ball in Beasley’s hands because I could tell he did too. Beasley is a classic gunner. He’s a microwave bench scorer and that’s it, and that’s fine. He’s about to be one of the top-20 free agents next summer and get $40 million from some lottery team, so just prepare yourself for it now.
TIER VII — HONORABLE MENTIONS
Kris Dunn (5) Jake Layman (47) Taurean Prince (12) Ivica Zubac (32)
Feel free to sub any of these guys into the bottom of the lottery. I’m not sure there’s anyone else of real consequence.
Kris Dunn is a filthy guard defender who can’t find enough offense to stay on the court. He should be a perfect fit next to Zach LaVine but might need to get to San Antonio and learn how to shoot if he wants to stick around the league.
Taurean Prince is fine. He’s whatever. Everyone thinks he’s a good defender, but the truth is he’s just a “3-and” guy. 3-and-nothing. He hasn’t bothered defending since his rookie year, and I have no idea why Brooklyn wanted to pay him $14.5 million each of the next two years. I’d rather have Jake Layman straight up, and he makes less than that the next three years combined.
Ivica Zubac feels like just a guy, but Jerry West disagrees so I imagine I’m wrong. I have zero expectation of him playing meaningful playoff minutes for the Clippers unless they just need him to bang bodies with Embiid or Jokic. I’m not sure what he does that’s much better than a minimum guy, but he’ll clip $28.5 million the next four years. Maybe L.A. just needed a middling salary to throw into a deal in a couple months.
I’d probably rather take a shot on a wing like DeAndre’ Bembry or Dorian Finney-Smith, if I’m being honest.
Shouts to my guys Zhou Qi and Skal Labissiere. Summer League crushes never say die.
TIER DCLXVI — DEAD LAST
5983982283. Henry Ellenson (18)
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