2022 NBA Crystal Ball Predictions

Which NBA teams will rise to the top by 2022? What player will win MVP, and who will win the championship? Let’s gaze into our NBA crystal ball and take a look at the future of basketball…

WHAT WILL THE NBA LOOK LIKE IN 2022? It’s a relatively simple question with a long and complicated answer.

Will Giannis Antetokounmpo still be in Milwaukee? Will Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid still be 76ers? Will Kawhi Leonard and Paul George still be Clippers? Will LeBron James even still be playing basketball?! Next year will likely look a lot like this season, but summer 2021 looms as the next huge free agency period that could totally reshape the league by 2021–22.

2022 appears to be an NBA crossroads. Most of the players at the top of the league are hitting the down slope of their careers, and two years from now, they may not have much left. Meanwhile young stars like Zion Williamson, Luka Doncic, Trae Young, and Jayson Tatum will be on their way up but still in their early 20s, so it may be too soon to dominate.

Will today’s superstars age out of relevance by 2022? Will the next generation be ready to make their mark on the league? Let’s gaze into our NBA crystal ball and take a look at each team’s future two seasons from now…

2022 EASTERN TEAM OUTLOOKS

Atlanta Hawks

The entire Hawks core should still be there, though I wonder if John Collins sees his long-term future in Atlanta. Trae Young is an All-Star and should only get better. He’ll be 23, just beginning to enter his prime. The Hawks should be a playoff team, but probably a first-round loser. If they’re closer to the top of the East, Trae could be an MVP long shot, but that’s probably too soon.

Boston Celtics

The Celtics are an interesting mix of youth and veterans. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are already among the league’s best wing duos, but Kemba Walker will be 31, and small guards do not age well. Gordon Hayward will be 31 too and could be gone by then. With Brad Stevens, Tatum, Brown, Marcus Smart, and the usual Celtics player development machine, this team should continue to stay near the top of the East. But with Kemba declining and no real way to add high-end talent to the roster, I wonder if the ceiling is something akin to the last half decade of Raptors, pre-Kawhi.

Brooklyn Nets

This one’s tough to imagine because we’re already imagining the team as it is. Both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving will still be under contract, but will either be healthy or whole? How many playoff runs will those two ever get together with both healthy at the same time? KD will be 33, Kyrie 29, edging toward the end of their peaks if not already past. This team is theoretically near the top of the East, but we’ll have to see if it’s ever more than just theory.

Charlotte Hornets

How many players currently on Charlotte’s roster are definite NBA starters? Are any? Devonte’ Graham and P.J. Washington are at least quality rotation players. Cody Zeller, Terry Rozier, Miles Bridges, whatever. There’s just not much upside here, and they’re not a free agent destination and not bad enough to earn a top draft pick. It’s ugly.

Chicago Bulls

What you think about the 2022 Bulls reflects whatever you think about them now. Zach LaVine, Coby White, and Wendell Carter should all still be there and still getting better, and the team should have cap room to add talent next summer in a major market. Chicago should be on its way up — but that’s been hypothetically true several seasons in a row now.

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs will still owe 33-year-old Kevin Love $60 million, and I’m not convinced they’ll realize they need to move him in time to find a taker. Love may barely be playable by then, and we don’t know yet if any of Collin Sexton, Kevin Porter Jr., Darius Garland, et al will be ready to step up. Cleveland could have a lot of intriguing assets in 2022 and a much rosier outlook, but the present will probably still be ugly.

Detroit Pistons

Blake Griffin has a $39-million player option for 2022 and, uhh, he’ll be picking that up. The good news is Detroit isn’t committed to much beyond that. The bad news is there’s really nothing at all to build on here, unless you’re a huge Sekou Doumbouya believer. The Pistons are finally ready to enter rebuilding mode, but it could be a long road ahead.

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers will be something similar to what they are right now: a feisty upper-middle class East team with a clear glass ceiling. Malcolm Brogdon, Domantas Sabonis, and Myles Turner will all still be under contract, though I doubt both big men are still around. But Victor Oladipo will be a free agent next summer, and he hasn’t really chosen his home yet in the NBA. He seems like the sort of guy to stick around, but there’s some variability here, with a safe floor but a somewhat limited ceiling.

Miami Heat

The key Heat name is Jimmy Butler, who will be 32 and worn down after years of playing with Thibs. Guys like Noah and Deng were almost unplayable at 32, and Butler has never been a beacon of health. Bam Adebayo is a star, but the rest of those fun Miami pieces are mostly role players in the right team ecosystem. The Heat are always a potential free agent destination and they’ll have big 2021 plans, but that depends on things looking rosy with Butler, and I really worry how that contract will age.

Milwaukee Bucks

Giannis Antetokounmpo is a free agent in summer 2021. Maybe you’ve heard. For now, the Bucks are title favorites, with an elite defense and a 70-win pace. Giannis 2022 will be 27, at the peak of his powers, but Khris Middleton will be 30 and Eric Bledsoe and Brook Lopez will be under contract but declining in their early 30s. If the Bucks can’t win now and Giannis recognizes he’s stuck with that core that can only get worse… well, that’s a column for another day. For now, we can only assume the Bucks will still be at the top of the conference, possibly with a 3-time reigning MVP.

New York Knicks

All those veterans will finally be gone, though the Knicks will no doubt have loaded up with new third-tier free agents after striking out in summer 2021. Maybe by then, R.J. Barrett and Mitchell Robinson will look good enough on dirt-cheap contracts to entice free agents to come, and maybe Leon Rose will have turned the franchise around. Sorry, but I’m just going to assume the worst with New York until proven otherwise.

Orlando Magic

The Magic remind me some of the pre-Butler Heat era. They had a nice run last year, surprised their way into a quick playoff exit, then locked themselves into a roster whose ceiling doesn’t excite me that much. The upside here is Markelle Fultz truly returning to form or my guy Jonathan Isaac making a Siakam-type leap on offense, and then maybe Orlando leaps to a 3- or 4-seed. Feels like a team that has locked themselves into the middle.

Philadelphia 76ers

Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons will be 27 and 25. Will they still be here? Will Al Horford or Tobias Harris? Will Philly finally figure out how to build a roster around their two stars? There’s a ton of money committed here, but I’m optimistic. Philly is starting to find some key role players like Matisse Thybulle and Shake Milton that will still be cheap in 2022. I think the starting lineup will look very different, but I also think Ben and Joel will still be there and that this team will finally be among the East’s true elite.

Toronto Raptors

Pascal Siakam will be in Toronto. Beyond that… who knows? Kyle Lowry, Marc Gasol, and Serge Ibaka will be gone or too old to matter. Fred FanVleet could leave this summer. OG Anunoby should be around, but he’ll have a nice raise by then. This team has real hopes of signing Antetokounmpo in summer 2021, and I’ll never put it past Masai Ujiri. But if they don’t, what does a team look like with Siakam as its best player without all the underrated supporting cast he has now? I’m not sure it’s as rosy as people think.

Washington Wizards

The Wizards will owe John Wall and Bradley Beal a whopping $78 million in 2022 with Beal age 28 and Wall entering his 30s. Woof. I do think Wall will play again but I’m skeptical how good he can be without that elite athleticism after an Achilles tear, and there’s not much reason to get excited about Rui Hachimura and Thomas Bryant. Maybe Wall figures things out and this team runs and outscores a bunch of teams. I remain a pessimist.

2022 Eastern Playoff Picture

Title contenders

1. Philadelphia 2. Milwaukee

Playoffs but what’s the ceiling?

3. Brooklyn 4. Boston 5. Miami 6. Indiana

Edge of playoff contention

7. Orlando 8. Atlanta 9. Toronto 10. Washington 11. Chicago

Lottery teams

12. New York 13. Detroit 14. Charlotte 15. Cleveland

Look familiar? It’s not a whole lot different from now, outside of Toronto aging out of the top tier. Maybe the Nets really are elite. Maybe the Celtics take that next step. Maybe Giannis leaves or the Sixers blow up Embiid-Simmons. Until one of those things happens, it looks like mostly status quo the next few years in the East.

2022 WESTERN TEAM OUTLOOKS

Dallas Mavericks

Somehow, the Mavs will still have Luka Doncic on a rookie contract in 2022, an MVP front runner at age 22. Kristaps Porzingis has looked like a max player since his move to center, and quality role players like Maxi Kleber, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Jalen Brunson are still under contract for almost nothing. Add in Mark Cuban, Rick Carlisle, and some serious cap room in a state with no income tax and a chance to play with the league’s brightest young star? The future is pretty bright in Dallas — but Porzingis might be the key. If he keeps playing like he has lately, they could be a title contender by 2022.

Denver Nuggets

So you know how the Nuggets have that continuity thing going this season? Well, they can still have almost this exact same rotation in 2022, minus Paul Millsap and Jerami Grant at the four. Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Will Barton, Gary Harris (unfortunately), and Michael Porter Jr. are all still under contract, and they’ll be 27, 25, 31, 27, and 23. That’s a heck of a playoff core, but the question is the same as the one right now — what’s the ceiling? That depends on a leap from Murray or MPJ.

Golden State Warriors

Steph will be 33, Klay and Draymond 32. That trio alone will make $110 million in 2022, basically eating up the cap, and they can only possibly be worse than they are right now. Curry and Thompson should age somewhat gracefully if they can stay healthy. Green may be a different story. Will 26-year-old Andrew Wiggins (another $30 million) still be around? Can he develop enough to be the team’s second best player by then? I have very serious doubts about both. I don’t buy this as a championship roster, not at that age, not at that price.

Houston Rockets

James Harden and Russell Westbrook will be 32 and 33. They’ll make $88 million in 2022. Robert Covington will still be on that cheap contract, but at age 31, he might not be so valuable. Eric Gordon hasn’t been good this year anyway, and I’m not excited about the 33-year old version. P.J. Tucker is a beast, but what can he give at age 36? I’m not sure anyone but Harden is a positive player in 2022, and even he could have a rough aging curve ahead with his foul-drawing style. I’m not buying Daryl Morey or Mike D’Antoni still being around to change up this roster every year either. Honestly, I think it could be getting ugly.

Los Angeles Clippers

This roster is a complete wildcard since both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George will be free agents in summer 2021, but both of them chose L.A. so for now, I’m going to assume they stick around. They’ll be 30 and 31 for this season and already struggle with health, and this is a pretty old roster without many draft picks. They still have Jerry West and L.A. to offer, and they could be a champion by then, making them a very attractive free agent destination. Or Kawhi and PG could leave a roster that never totally worked and this team could be among the worst in the league. There aren’t a ton of in-betweens.

Los Angeles Lakers

I honestly think Anthony Davis sees his future in L.A., and I don’t expect LeBron to go anywhere. Those two will be 28 and 37, both probably a little worse than now, but who knows with LeBron? No one else on this roster will still be around and there are no draft assets, but when has that ever stopped the Lakers before? If the Lakers enter the summer with a blank roster around an MVP big man and the world’s best role player in LeBron, they’ll have a pretty strong chance of adding a key free agent or two staying in contention.

Memphis Grizzlies

You’re expecting the Grizzlies to break out by 2022, but let’s remember last year’s cautionary Kings tale. Growth is not linear. The 22 Grizz will feature Ja Morant (22), Jaren Jackson Jr. (22), Brandon Clarke (25), Dillon Brooks (26), and Justise Winslow (25). That’s a lot of young talent, but the two key players are still really young and may not be superstars yet, and this team doesn’t have as much cap flexibility as you think. The Grizzlies should be rising but this thing will take awhile unless someone makes a superstar leap.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Don’t buy into the KAT drama. Karl-Anthony Towns is under contract four more seasons, and he and D’Angelo Russell should be hitting their primes together at 26 and 25. Both are on max contracts but they’re lower maxes because of their age, totaling only $61 million in 2022. Minnesota is a tough free agent destination, but Gersson Rosas is making moves. Add in 24-year-old Malik Beasley who appears to be breaking out, Jarrett Culver (22), and this year’s high draft pick, and this should absolutely be a playoff team in 2022. If they’re not then, then you can definitely buy the KAT drama.

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans future is bright, but it might not necessarily look like you imagine. Brandon Ingram probably signs an extension this summer but Jrue Holiday, Lonzo Ball, and Josh Hart could all be gone. Ingram will be 24, Zion Williamson 21, and the team has a glut of draft assets and possibilities to go with those two All Stars. A lot of paths for this team look very good, but there are some real injury questions about both Zion and Ingram, and this team needs a new coach, some defense, and a plan. This is another team that’s really hard to imagine. If Ingram keeps improving and Zion is a superstar by then, they could be a top-3 seed. If they stagnate a bit, this could still be a borderline playoff team.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have been unexpectedly good this season, but their 2022 roster looks like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the corpse of Chris Paul, and a million draft picks. We’ll think about the 2022 Thunder like we see the Grizzlies or Kings right now. There will be some youth and buzz but also plenty of Ls.

Phoenix Suns

Welcome to the West version of the Bulls. Do you believe in the Suns right now? Then you probably like their future. I’m still not there. This team should be hitting its peak with Devin Booker (25), Deandre Ayton (23), Mikal Bridges (25), and Kelly Oubre Jr. (25), and they could even add a key player or two to that mix with Ayton and Bridges still on the final year of their rookie deal. I’m just not sure I buy that group as a playoff core until the top of the West craters.

Portland Trail Blazers

Will Damian Lillard (31) and C.J. McCollum (30) still be together? The pair will be owed $75 million and they don’t have a ton of help. Hopefully Jusuf Nurkic makes a full recovery but the team badly needs players like Zach Collins and Anfernee Simons to take a big development step. Dame and C.J. won’t be too old in 2022, but they should be worse than now when Portland is a fringe playoff contender, so what’s the ceiling here?

Sacramento Kings

I didn’t buy this Kings core heading into the season and I still don’t. Sorry, not every West team can magically be a playoff squad. De’Aaron Fox, Marvin Bagley, Buddy Hield, and Bogdan Bogdanovic feel just good enough to ruin their chances of adding a true superstar in the draft but not quite good enough to put together a serious playoff contender.

San Antonio Spurs

I hate to say it, but it’s hard for me to see anything but a really bleak Spurs future. Derrick White and Dejounte Murray are as good as it gets for prospects, and they look like role players. DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge will finally be gone, and it sure seems like Gregg Popovich will be too. It looks like the playoff streak will finally end next month, and this team is going to get worse before it start getting better.

Utah Jazz

Call it a hunch, but I don’t feel great about the 2022 Jazz. Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert will be 25 and 29, but neither is under contract for that season. The team would have matching rights on Mitchell, but I’m not positive I buy his ultimate upside and I’m not sure I see it happening in Utah if he does get there. Gobert should be on the downside at that age, while the Jazz wings will be old and unreliable. If Spida or Rudy are as good as we want them to be, I think one or both could leave. If they’re not, maybe they stay, but then what?

Western Playoff Picture

Title contenders

1. L.A. Lakers 2. Dallas

How will the superstars age?

4. L.A. Clippers 6. Golden State

Young teams on the rise

3. Denver 5. New Orleans 7. Minnesota 9. Memphis 11. Phoenix

The wrong side of playoff contention

8. Portland 10. Houston 12. Utah

Lottery teams

13. Sacramento 14. Oklahoma City 15. San Antonio

Unlike the East, this looks completely different from right now. There are only three teams I’m willing to count out totally from playoff contention and only three I feel pretty good about. Everything in between is up for grabs. The tiers don’t split perfectly, so I numbered the seeds in order but grouped the teams how I’d break them down.

Leaving the Clippers and Warriors as the 4- and 5-seeds is a hedge. I’d guess there’s a better chance of one of them in the top two and the other out of the playoffs. I like the Pelicans and Wolves immediate future more than the Grizzlies or Suns. I don’t love the direction the Rockets, Blazers, and Jazz are headed. And, frankly, I’d happily put all those teams about 6th or 7th in the East, but the West is the West and this is where we’re at.

Push the crystal ball another year or two ahead and things change. LeBron, Steph, Klay, Dray, Kawhi, PG, Dame, C.J. Harden, Russ, and Gobert are all definitely aged out by then, potentially taking the Lakers, Ws, Clips, Rockets, Blazers, and Jazz with them. Those extra couple years are also enough time for the Mavs, Pels, and Grizz to see their young stars really hit that next level.

But the 2022 season feels like it could be stuck right in the middle.

So where does that leave things in the 2022 MVP race, the All-NBA teams, and the playoffs? Let’s take a look…

2022 MVP RACE

1. Luka Doncic 2. Giannis Antetokounmpo 3. Anthony Davis 4. Ben Simmons 5. Joel Embiid

2022 ALL-NBA TEAMS

1st Team

Luka Doncic Ben Simmons Giannis Antetokounmpo Anthony Davis Joel Embiid

2nd Team

Steph Curry Trae Young Kevin Durant Jayson Tatum Karl-Anthony Towns

3rd Team

James Harden Damian Lillard Kawhi Leonard Zion Williamson Nikola Jokic

2022 NBA PLAYOFFS

Conference semis

Sixers over Celtics in 5 Nets over Bucks in 6 Lakers over Clippers in 6 Mavs over Warriors in 7

Conference Finals

Sixers over Nets in 6 Lakers over Mavs in 5

NBA Finals

Sixers over Lakers in 6 ■

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