The 2020 NBA Midseason Awards

Who is the MVP at the All-Star Break, and what players lead the other major award races as we hit the home stretch?

THE NBA ALL-STAR BREAK HAS COME AND GONE, and suddenly we’re less than two months away from the playoffs. We often think of the All-Star Game as the season’s midpoint, but the truth is we’re already almost two-thirds of the way through the regular season and careening quickly toward the start of the playoffs.

Still, the All-Star Break is a natural spot to catch our breath and check in on where everything stands, so let’s give out some 2020 Midseason Awards. These are not predictions of where things will end up in June. These are the awards we’d give out if the season ended today.

So who is MVP or Rookie of the Year, who wins Defensive Player of the Year, and which 15 guys make All-NBA? Let’s take a look at the races…

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

1. Ja Morant 2. Brandon Clarke 3. Zion Williamson

Honorable mentions — Matisse Thybulle, Terence Davis, Michael Porter Jr.

Ja Morant is your 2019–20 Rookie of the Year unless two things happen: Morant suffers a season-ending injury soon, ending his campaign and sending Memphis tumbling without him, and Zion Williamson stays healthy and has a monster final 30 games and gets New Orleans into the playoffs.

Not sure I buy all of that happening. The Pelicans are 5.5 games out of the playoff hunt, a very significant margin, and if they slip any further out of the race, you can bet they’ll be cautious with Zion’s minutes and workload. And it would be foolish to bet on a Morant injury, let alone a season-ending one.

Morant has been awesome at over 17 points and 7 assists a game. Rookie point guards simply aren’t supposed to be this good. I genuinely think his rookie teammate Brandon Clarke has been even more valuable, and the advanced metrics play that out, but Rookie of the Year needs to represent that rookie class, and Morant is this year’s most worthy representative.

I do think Zion will be on most ballots. There just aren’t other serious competitors. Names like Kendrick Nunn, Tyler Herro, Jarrett Culver, and Rui Hachimura will make the All-Rookie teams, where volume is king, but they’ve been mostly fine. Guys like Terence Davis and Matisse Thybulle have been much more impactful, while Michael Porter Jr. looks like the biggest rookie difference maker in the playoff picture.

There are a lot of obvious disappointments here, with R.J. Barrett not surprisingly leading the way, but it’s been a disappointing rookie class overall.

Shouts to Ben Simmons, as always.

SOPHOMORE OF THE YEAR

1. Luka Doncic 2. Trae Young 3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 4. Devonte’ Graham 5. Duncan Robinson

Honorable mentions — Mikal Bridges, Donte DiVincenzo, De’Anthony Melton

This obviously isn’t a real award, but it’s been a much more interesting class because of the surprise development of a lot of these names outside the obvious top two of Luka Doncic and Trae Young.

No one is too surprised by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s development. He looks like a future star. But look at the rest of those names above. Devonte’ Graham and De’Anthony Melton were forgotten second rounders. Many draftniks doubted whether either would even stick on an NBA roster, and now they’re both playing key roles and look like they’ll be around a long time. Donte DiVincenzo looked like a lost draft investment for Milwaukee, and suddenly he’s playing terrific defense and is a key rotation piece for the league’s best team. And Duncan Robinson is raining straight fire in Miami, playing so well that I just named him to my Second-Team NBA All Stars.

Last year’s draft was highlighted by big men at the top, but those haven’t been the names standing out yet this season. Jaren Jackson Jr. has been fine but he’s already just one of the young core guys in Memphis. Mitchell Robinson remains an analytics darling but can’t get himself a start. Deandre Ayton missed half the season so far but has shown some nice development lately, though he has a long way to go as a #1 pick. Marvin Bagley at #2 is already teetering on the edge of bust territory, easily the most disappointing sophomore so far.

A few other disappointments are worth mentioning. The Clippers spent a lottery pick on Jerome Robinson just one draft ago and thought so little of him that they shipped him off to Washington at the trade deadline and no one even noticed. Anfernee Simons had been one of the hot young names for Portland but rates as one of the worst players in the league by many catch-all stats. Kevin Knox has been at the bottom all along and ain’t going anywhere anytime soon.

We may not see a lot of significant rookie contributions in this year’s playoffs. The sophomores? That’s another story altogether, even if it’s not the guys we expected.

COACH OF THE YEAR

1. Nick Nurse 2. Erik Spoelstra 3. Mike Budenholzer

Honorable mentions — Brad Stevens, Taylor Jenkins, Frank Vogel

All four of those coaches on my ballot are in the East, and Brad Stevens would be my next choice too. Those four have put on a coaching clinic this season, though it’s hard to leave Taylor Jenkins and Frank Vogel off the ballot.

I just wrote a whole column on coaches, so I’ll let you read the rest of my defense there. We really should be picking All-Star coaches, too.

SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR

1. Montrezl Harrell 2. Dennis Schroder 3. Davis Bertans

Honorable mentions — George Hill, Justin Holiday, Derrick Rose, Lou Williams

This is never a particularly interesting award, if only because it just tends to go to a high volume sixth man each season without a ton of thought. This year that will likely be Montrezl Harrell or Lou Williams again, especially considering the way the Clippers continue to rest their three most important players (yes, including Patrick Beverley) so they’re ready for May and June.

Harrell and Williams are just getting too many minutes and too much usage and shine to lose out on 6MOY. Can anyone else jump in and steal this award?

Derrick Rose could have the best chance. He’s having the most productive per-minute season of his career, and he could be in for a huge closing stretch now that Reggie Jackson is gone. Rose could put up some monster albeit meaningless numbers for a team that doesn’t matter. If Detroit keeps bringing him off the bench too, he could make a late push.

I could see Dennis Schroder having a huge impact down the stretch too, for better or for worse. I worry about Chris Paul staying healthy all season, and what will happen to Oklahoma City if Schroder has to start with SGA instead of dominating off the bench? He’s quietly had a great season but hasn’t been successful as a starter.

MOST IMPROVED PLAYER

1. Bam Adebayo 2. Devonte’ Graham 3. Brandon Ingram

Honorable mentions — Luka Doncic, Fred VanVleet, Duncan Robinson

Now this award looks very interesting indeed. And with respect to those three names in the honorable mentions, MIP looks like a clear three-man race, and one that could go any direction.

I don’t see it for Brandon Ingram. He’s going to see a continued reduced role now with Zion back, and Williamson will get a lot of the shine if the Pelicans make a late push. It’ll be very interesting to see how these two play together with Ingram’s likely max contract extension looming this summer.

My MIP would be Bam Adebayo, but I am perfectly content recognizing Devonte’ Graham. It just depends on what improvement you wish to reward. Graham isn’t playing meaningful minutes since Charlotte is so bad, but he basically went from is-he-even-an-NBA-player to being the Hornets best player overnight. How much improvement does it take to leap from being on the cusp of dropping out of the league to turning into a team’s best player?

Adebayo was a lottery pick, so he was supposed to be good, but no one expected this. Everyone waited to see if Miami would add a second star next to Jimmy Butler, but it turned out they already had one, one good enough that Butler might actually be the second star. Remember a few months ago when we were debating Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, and De’Aaron Fox as the crown jewels of the 2017 draft class? Bam wasn’t even in that conversation, and now he’d likely be taken ahead of at least one of those names.

Which leap is harder, from no-name to quality NBA starter or from fringe starter to All-Star and potential franchise player? I’ll go with the latter.

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo 2. Brook Lopez 3. Rudy Gobert

Honorable mentions — Marc Gasol, Anthony Davis, Patrick Beverley

Defensive Player of the Year is a two-man race for me, and both men are on the same team. Per Cleaning the Glass, Milwaukee is the league’s #1 defense, and they’re further ahead of #2 (Toronto) than the Raptors are from league average. The Bucks defense has absolutely stifled opponents, both the bad ones and the good ones. Milwaukee already has at least one win against every presumed contender, and their defense is swallowing opponents whole.

My vote goes to Giannis Antetokounmpo over Brook Lopez because the Greek Freak’s length, instincts, and recoverability are what unlock this defense to me, allowing BroLo to drop and focus on menacing opponents at the rim. But this award has got to go to Milwaukee when their defense is that much better than everyone else.

The race for third on the ballot is wide open but irrelevant. Jonathan Isaac would’ve been my pick with absurdly strong defensive metrics, but the injury leaves him on the outs. Toronto has the league’s #2 defense and Marc Gasol is their best defender, but he’s also seventh on the team in minutes. That’s a whole team effort over there.

That’s the case for the Lakers too, and that’s why none of them make my ballot. L.A. has a top-five defense but it’s not just Anthony Davis. LeBron is playing much better defense than usual for the regular season, and Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee have been terrific. Sorry, but Davis just can’t be DPOY when he’s playing most of his minutes at the four and has that much help around him.

And no, I’m not rewarding anyone on the lethargic Sixers defense either.

ALL-NBA TEAMS

FIRST TEAM James Harden Luka Doncic Giannis Antetokounmpo LeBron James Nikola Jokic

SECOND TEAM Damian Lillard Ben Simmons Kawhi Leonard Anthony Davis Bam Adebayo

THIRD TEAM Chris Paul Kemba Walker Jimmy Butler Pascal Siakam Karl-Anthony Towns

It feels like First-Team All-NBA is already on lock. Kawhi just hasn’t played enough to push Giannis or LeBron at forward, and Dame has been awesome but won’t jump Luka or Beard without a key injury. Anthony Davis is the only one I could see making the team, but it would be a mistake. Davis isn’t a center, and he hasn’t been as good as Jokic anyway.

The more interesting conversation is at the end of this list. I’ve got 12 All-NBA locks, barring major injuries: everyone on my First- and Second-Team, plus Chris Paul and Jimmy Butler. But the last guard, forward, and center spot look totally up for grabs.

Karl-Anthony Towns is the easiest pick of the three for me, though I recognize my bias. Rudy Gobert and Joel Embiid just haven’t been impressive enough to push him, and he’s having a transcendent offensive season.

The forward spot is very interesting, especially since we could gain another pick or two if Davis or Butler end up listed at other positions. I assume most people would have Pascal Siakam as an All-NBA lock, but I’m not sure he is. The numbers have fallen off a lot since that torrid start, and his reputation outweighs his production for now. Toronto is a team success, not a star story. Paul George looms large in the conversation, but Jayson Tatum and Khris Middleton are both super hot and could make strong pushes.

I’m not that excited about Kemba Walker but couldn’t talk myself into Trae Young or Bradley Beal. Honestly, I think this could end up being Russell Westbrook if he keeps playing like he has over the past month since Houston has gone all-in on small ball. He might even end up Second-Team. I don’t think Trae, Beal, or Devin Booker make the cut. That leaves Kemba or Kyle Lowry, neither as deserving top 15 players but both as representatives of outstanding teams worth recognizing.

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo 2. LeBron James 3. James Harden 4. Luka Doncic 5. Nikola Jokic

Honorable mentions — Damian Lillard, Jimmy Butler, Anthony Davis

This award should be on lock. Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best player on the league’s best team, both by a wide margin. In what was supposed to be a wide open season, Milwaukee is absolutely throttling teams, and they’re doing so with only one top-25 player. Giannis is averaging 30 points, 13 boards, and 5 dimes plus a steal and a block, and he’s doing all that in barely 30 minutes a night because he’s so good in those 30 minutes the Bucks coast to the finish line most nights. He is, at worst, a top-five player in the league on both offense and defense, and he’s my DPOY too.

The Bucks are on pace for 70 wins. We’ve had only four 30/12/5 seasons in NBA history (Oscar, Elgin, and Wilt x2), and each of those guys played at least 43 minutes a game in their historic season. Giannis is barely playing 30! He’d be more like 45/18/8 if he matched the minutes of one of those Hall of Famers every game. It’s over. Giannis is king.

Except… what if he’s not?

Only one man could steal MVP from Giannis, and his name is LeBron James. It’ll depend on the media narrative.

What if the Bucks coast in at 66 or 67 wins and the Lakers finish close behind in the low 60s? What if Giannis plays even fewer minutes down the stretch, falls below that magic 30ppg round number, missing a few games too? What if the media starts hyping LeBron’s “best year ever” in his first season leading the league in assists and a “last chance” for him to tie MJ with a fifth MVP? What if the Lakers have a few clutch late wins with everyone watching and there are a couple key quotes and moments about how much Bron has heroically pulled the team together with all the difficult emotion surrounding this Lakers season? This is Kobe’s season now. Kobe got the career legacy MVP at one point. What if this is LeBron’s turn?

James is certainly having a deserving MVP season. He’s just doing it the same year as one of the most obvious MVP winners in recent memory.

But what if we get numbers that look a little like this by season’s end:

• Giannis: 28/12/6 in 69 games, 67 wins
• LeBron: 26/8/11 in 77 games, 63 wins

Antetokounmpo would still be the most deserving winner. But it’s easier to make a LeBron case than you’d think, and you can bet the media will make that case if there’s any opportunity.

It’s hard to see anyone but Giannis and LeBron finishing top two, but everything else is probably up for grabs. Harden is starting to slip down the ballot some, and Doncic feels more like a get-on-the-ballot guy than a contender this year.

One name I think will end up on a lot of ballots is Nikola Jokic. He took the Nuggets to the 2-seed last year and has them right back there this season, even after a slow start, even with a bunch of Denver injuries and no teammate even worth listing among the All-Star snubs. He deserves to make the ballot. We’ll see who else joins him.

And that’s a wrap on the 2020 NBA Midseason Awards. Now bring on the basketball… and in just two months, the NBA playoffs… ■

Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.