2020 NBA Draft Big Board 1.0 as the Season Concludes
March Madness may be cancelled, but that doesn’t mean we can’t check in on the 2020 NBA Draft class to see where things stand…
WE WERE SUPPOSED TO BE WATCHING MARCH MADNESS RIGHT NOW. Just one week ago, conference tournaments were starting to heat up, and the most fun month of the college basketball season was at our fingertips. Instead, the season ended abruptly at the hands of the coronavirus and took March Madness with it. College basketball is cancelled.
For NBA teams and scouts, this was an especially painful cancellation. Most players were about to have their three or four biggest tests of the season in a playoff setting. March is a real opportunity for players to boost their stock, even solidify a spot in the first round. Now we’re not even sure when the 2020 NBA Draft will take place or what the lead-up will look like.
My original plan was to release Big Board 1.0 a week ago, with where things stood heading into March Madness and which players and skills I’d have my eye on. Alas. I still have plenty of games on the DVR, and we should get measurements and some sort of Combine and interviews at some point. There’s still more to learn. But it’s helpful to see where things stand for now.
A few quick ground rules, and let’s get to the Big Board…
- Hold everything below loosely for now. The games may be done, but plenty will still change. This is just to give us a place to start from.
- That’s especially true within tiers. It should be pretty rare that a player jumps multiple tiers up or down, but they could very fluidly move up or down within that tier.
- I haven’t done as much work on the overseas guys yet, so they’re more likely to move around. The NCAA guys I’m more confident in my opinion.
- It’s a positionless league, but positions help orient us. The positions below are based on what position (or size, really) I expect the player to guard.
- This is 100% my own Big Board. All scouting and observation are mine, not based on intel or hearsay. This is just what I think.
TIER I — THE POSSIBLE STARS
1. SG Anthony Edwards, Georgia 2. PG LaMelo Ball, overseas
Let’s just say it would be a lot more accurate if Tier I was empty, or if just said TRADE DOWN in big letters. Neither of these guys would’ve ranked in my top three in any of the last five drafts, but this is what we’re working with.
Edwards and Ball are the two players in this draft with genuine star equity, but I’m not sold on either getting there and wouldn’t want to stake my claim on them. I need to see more of Ball; I’ve already seen way too much Edwards. I find myself feeling how I felt after every R.J. Barrett game last year. So much natural ability, so many obvious flaws I’m not convinced he can overcome.
Unfortunately, if you’re a bad team atop the draft, you have to take a shot at superstar upside, and these are this year’s best shots. I like the next tier guys all more, really, but none of them move the needle for a team like the Knicks, Cavs, or Pistons that is building upon nothing right now. Better off shooting for the stars, and at least when you miss, you’ll get to try again next year.
TIER II — THE 16-GAMERS
3. PG Tyrese Haliburton, Iowa State 4. SF Isaac Okoro, Auburn 5. SG Tyrese Maxey, Kentucky 6. C Onyeka Okongwu, USC 7. PG Killian Hayes, overseas 8. SG Devin Vassell, Florida State
It was Draymond Green who delineated the difference between 16-gamers and 82-gamers. Some guys play a perfectly fine role in the regular season, but the 16-gamers are the ones you want with everything on the line. They’re versatile, multipositional, and help almost any team. In a word, they’re winners. They’re glue guys, the guys you want on your side.
Haliburton and Okoro lead the way. In a season where almost every major prospect disappointed, those two impressed all season. I love their winning mentality and they showed significant improvement. They’re good defenders and team players that elevate their teammates. Low-usage players don’t typically go so high in a draft, but this is an unusual draft. Those are unquestionably the two players I’d target for the Warriors.
Maxey was #1 on my board before the season tipped, when I knew very little. I still love him, even if he’s dropped a few spots. I love Vassell too but his player type has a little less upside. A team like Minnesota or Phoenix with some franchise pieces already in place should be ecstatic to land a player from this tier, even ahead of the tier above.
Draft Twitter is really high on Hayes and Okongwu, even putting those two atop their boards in some instances. I can’t quite get there on Okongwu. I like all his strengths and he’s clearly the top big man in the draft, but an all-around big that’s good-not-great at everything can only be so valuable. Hayes feels a point guard version of that, in many ways. Both seem like very positive NBA players but I’m not sure I see them at #1 — but then again, who is?
TIER III — DEFINITELY NBA PLAYERS, BUT STARTERS?
9. PG Nico Mannion, Arizona 10. PG Cole Anthony, North Carolina 11. PG Kira Lewis, Alabama 12. PF Patrick Williams, Florida State 13. SF Aaron Nesmith, Vanderbilt 14. PF Obi Toppin, Dayton 15. SF Deni Avdija, overseas
Most of these names have bounced all over the place on my draft board already. None of them particularly excite me as lottery picks, but that’s what happens when we’re missing a true top-five — everything else gets pushed up.
I adore Nico Mannion but he’s already fallen from my top-five and I feel him sliding farther soon. Even now, #9 feels too high. He’s a basketball genius, but I’m just not sure he’s athletic enough to start. Cole Anthony only ranks this high because of his pre-UNC pedigree and what I’ve seen from other reliable draftniks. I’ve liked little that I’ve seen and have a longer piece on him coming soon. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Kira Lewis ended up as the best point guard of the three in a decade.
Williams and Nesmith are effectively an extension of the 16-Gamers list, just not quite as valuable or certain. Williams is one guy I could see ending up much higher on this list in five years, once he blossoms. Those two I definitely like — I’m just not positive how much yet.
I haven’t made a full decision on Toppin or Avdija yet, so this is a bit of a hedge. Not sure if Toppin can be more than an awesome sixth man scorer, and not sure Avdija has that go-to skill to hang his hat on. Like the others in this tier, I see definite NBA players here but not necessarily starters.
TIER IV — UPSIDE PLAYS
16. SG Josh Green, Arizona 17. SF Saddiq Bey, Villanova 18. C James Wiseman, Memphis 29. SG Jahmi’us Ramsey, Texas Tech 20. PF Aleksej Pokusevski, overseas 21. SF Tyler Bey, Colorado 22. PF Paul Reed, DePaul 23. PG Theo Maledon, overseas
We’ve reached my most volatile tier. By June, several of these guys will end up in my lottery, while others may drop out of my first round entirely. The rest might stay in this range as dart throws, guys we just don’t know how they’ll turn out, but in a draft so light, you have to take a chance at some point.
Green, Bey, and Reed can be defensive studs, but we need to see if they can find a role on offense. Defense isn’t valuable if it’s on the bench.
I watch Saddiq Bey and like him, in theory, but not fringe-of-lottery like him. I’d feel pretty good about him at the end of the first round, Theo Maledon too. But where they’re projected to go? I’m not sure there’s much value.
Wiseman, Jahmi’us, and Pokusevski in a row is pretty wild, but here we are. Wiseman is top three on national boards, and most people haven’t even heard of Poku. All three are wildly raw, oozing with potential and untapped talent. Hit, and they’re top-five talents. Miss, and they’re out of the league.
Those 23 names are effectively my players with a first-round grade right now. That number makes sense, considering there might not be any true “top-five” guys in this class.
TIER V — ROTATION GUYS
24. PG Tre Jones, Duke 25. PF Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Villanova 26. SG Cassius Stanley, Duke 27. PG Tyrell Terry, Stanford 28. SG R.J. Hampton, overseas
This next tier goes from 24 to 42, so it’s a huge swath of players and the order will change a lot by the draft. These are the five names with the best chance of rising up my board, maybe even toward the lottery.
I truly love Tre Jones and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl as winning players that do the little stuff, but I’m not positive they have the size or upside to hang. I love both as rotation guy fighters. Cassius Stanley is a bit smaller than I’d hope too, but he’s my favorite of a bunch of 3-and-D wings in this grouping.
Tyrell Terry feels like a 2021 lottery pick, so it makes sense for a team to promise him now with a later pick and develop him in their system. R.J. Hampton is probably a lottery pick now, but I’m not excited about him yet.
29. PF Killian Tillie, Gonzaga 30. PF Xavier Tillman, Michigan State 31. PG Carlos Alocén, overseas 33. SF Joel Ayayi, Gonzaga 32. PF Jaden McDaniels, Washington
We’ve reached the Very Solid Second Round Plays. These are limited upside guys that probably won’t be starters, but smart, hard-working players I want in my rotation. And then there’s Jaden McDaniels, who is none of those things and who I’m basically out on by ranking him this far down my board.
34. SF Aaron Henry, Michigan State 35. SG Mason Jones, Arkansas 36. PF Precious Achiuwa, Memphis 37. C Isaiah Stewart, Washington 38. C Zeke Nnaji, Arizona
There’s really only one true big I’d take in the first round this year (Okongwu) considering where they’ll likely be drafted, but we’ve come to a bunch of big men I’m happy to throw a high second at. Achiuwa and Stewart are defenders. Nnaji is an offensive option.
Aaron Henry is another 3-and-D wing, and my opinion on him changes every game. He could move 15 spots in either direction still. Mason Jones is just a baller. He was the best player in the SEC and does a bit of everything.
39. PG Cassius Winston, Michigan State 40. SF Scottie Lewis, Florida 41. PG Grant Riller, Charleston 42. C Jalen Smith, Maryland
Winston looks like a classic second-round veteran bench unit point guard. I really think he might have left a champion, given the chance. Scottie Lewis can’t do anything but defend yet, but he’s had some flashes. He should really go back for another year.
Grant Riller can flat out score. Can he do against the tougher competition? Jalen Smith is a big man I could see leaping the group ahead of him. He has a rare combination of shooting plus rim protection and could fit that new Brook Lopez role.
OTHER NAMES POTENTIALLY IN THE MIX
Initially this was supposed to a list of players to watch in March Madness.
RIP.
Instead I’ll run quickly through about a dozen or so other names I’m still sifting through, and many of these guys I just haven’t seen much yet. They’re candidates to jump into that 30-to-40 range, maybe even bottom of the first. These names are in no real particular order.
Neemias Queta was one of my favorite sleepers a year ago. I had him just outside the lottery in a much better draft. Unfortunately he got hurt over the summer and looked awful most of this season, bad enough that he wouldn’t be on my draft board at all. Queta is all defense, while Vernon Carey is the opposite. He’s a great college player but without size, defense, or shooting, I’m not sure I see an NBA role.
There’s a whole slew of ball handlers in this range. That makes all of them less valuable, since I can wait and grab an undrafted free agent I like almost as much, using my second rounder on a wing or athlete I can’t get later. Devon Dotson is near the top of that range but I’m not sure I see one particular skill for him to hang his hat on. Jared Butler seemed like the best player on the court in the biggest game of the season, and that stuck with me. Ayo Dosunmu just looks like an NBA player, but that doesn’t mean he is one.
Most of the intriguing names here aren’t point guards are centers, where bench guys are so fungible they’re not particularly valuable. I’d rather take a shot on a wing or forward. Romeo Weems was a disaster this year, but his package of size, athleticism, and defensive ability is rare. Keyontae Johnson and Robert Woodard look like useful 3-and-D wings, especially the former. Desmond Bane and Skylar Mays are well-rounded do-everything guards that feel like quality 8th men. Trendon Watford usually looked good when I saw him, but I didn’t watch much LSU yet. Terrence Shannon is really raw, and I’m starting to doubt those Texas Tech wings.
If you’re looking for other obvious names, here’s a handful of guys I don’t find myself that interested in: Jordan Nwora, Ashton Hagans, Daniel Oturu, Myles Powell, David Johnson, Payton Pritchard, Isaiah Joe, Oscar Tshiebwe, Spencer Jones, Mamadi Diakite, Markus Howard, Immanuel Quickley, Malachi Flynn, and Kaleb Wesson. They’d all be another tier down, a mostly irrelevant one to my board. Mostly they feel like AAAA players. I’d be happy to give them a chance undrafted but prefer to spend a draft pick on upside elsewhere. ■
Questions? Comments? Disagreements? Loud noises!? Let’s hear about it in the comments section below!
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