How Far Can Tom Brady Take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

Strange as it may seem, Tom Brady is signing with the Bucs. Exactly how good can this Tampa Bay team be?

TB IS HEADED TO TB. Tom Brady is really signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It’s still strange to type, and it will be for a long time. After 20 seasons and six Super Bowl championships, Brady announced his decision to move on from the New England Patriots on Tuesday morning. Later that day, the surreal became reality. Brady will sign with the Bucs.

The signing isn’t yet official, but it sounds like the 43-year-old Greatest Of All Time quarterback will sign for around $30 million with the Buccaneers. It’s been a wild start to 2020 NFL Free Agency and a welcome break from the coronavirus scare over the last week, but few things in sports are more jarring than imagining Tom Brady in creamsicle orange and pewter.

But as the reality of Tom Brady in Tampa Bay settled in, another reality started to hit me. These Bucs might be pretty darn good…

What would make this successful for Tampa?

So what would make the Tom Brady experiment a success for the Bucs? Let’s just say the bar is not particularly high.

As far as I can tell, the best Tampa quarterback season of all time is probably 2002 Brad Johnson, 2007 Jeff Garcia, 2010 Josh Freeman, or 2019 Jameis Winston. Winston just threw for 5000+ yards and 30 TDs, but he also led the league with an ungodly 30 interceptions. The other three were all under 3500 yards with 25 or fewer TDs, and none of the four won more than 10 games. In fact, no Bucs QB ever has.

So, to have the best Buccaneers QB season of all time, it would mean Brady having at least 10 wins with 3500 yards and 24 TDs. Tom Brady has literally done that in each of his last 14 healthy seasons in a row.

Fine, but what about playoff success? Brady isn’t here to put up regular season numbers.

Tampa Bay has six playoff wins. Like, six ever. Their last playoff appearance was January 2008. Their last playoff win was the Super Bowl in 2003, so long ago that when the Bucs last won a playoff game, Tom Brady had only played in one playoffs. He has 26 playoff wins himself since Tampa last won a single playoff game. Only the Bengals and Texans have fewer playoff wins.

Tampa’s career franchise winning percentage is 0.387. It’s basically the equivalent of going 6–10, every year, forever. That’s the lowest of all NFL teams, so low it’s almost a full win per season worse than the next worst team. The Bucs won a playoff game in 1979, 1997, and 1999 before winning three in 2003. Their playoff winning quarterbacks are Doug Williams, Brad Johnson, Shaun King, and Trent Dilfer.

Tampa Bay has six playoff wins. Tom Brady has six Super Bowl rings.

A good comparison would be if LeBron James randomly joined the Minnesota Timberwolves like five years from now. The Wolves rank dead last in NBA win percentage at .398 and have won a playoff series in only one season ever. They have 18 franchise playoff wins; it takes 16 just to win one ring.

LeBron just joined the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It’s weird.

The bar is pretty low here. Even a healthy, moderately successful season as something like the 15th best QB in the league plus nine or 10 wins and a first-round playoff loss would be one of the greatest Bucs seasons of all time.

So it won’t take much for this to be successful. But what are the expectations for this Bucs season? And exactly how good was last year’s 7–9 team?

The Bucs are already pretty darn good

If Brady shows up and the Bucs win 10 or 11, he’s going to get a ton of credit. But the reality is this Tampa team was already really quite good.

The Bucs ranked top-3 in the NFL in both yardage and points on offense. The passing offense in particular was fantastic. Tampa was top-5 in passing yards, attempts, TDs, and yards per attempt. Chris Godwin broke out, and Jameis Winston had career highs in basically every stat possible.

The defense was pretty good too. The run defense in particular was elite. Tampa led the entire NFL in rushing yards allowed and yards per carry, allowing a meager 3.3ypc on the season. That wasn’t just best in the NFL this season. The folks at Football Outsiders measured this as the sixth greatest rushing defense in NFL history.

The Bucs ranked top-6 in the NFL in both red zone offense and defense. They were the #5 defense on third downs. Tampa forced 28 turnovers on defense, top-5 in the league. Todd Bowles turned this defense around. They finished as the #5 overall defense in PFF’s rankings, all the way up from dead last the previous season. A miracle, really.

It wasn’t a perfect team, obviously, or they wouldn’t have gone 7–9.

The Bucs rushing offense was fine, probably a bit below average, though they didn’t need to bother with it as good as their passing attack was. The weakest spot on the team was the secondary. Though no longer historically bad like in 2018, Tampa’s secondary got rocked, ranking bottom-3 in passing attempts and yards allowed. Even still, they finished right around league average in total yardage and points allowed per drive.

So, wait. If the Bucs could pass so well and if their defense was average or even great at times, then what exactly was the problem? And how is Tom Brady going to fix it?

Tampa’s huge 2019 problem that ruined everything

So the Bucs passed the ball effectively, completely took away the opponents’ run game, and played pretty strong football overall. So why 7–9?

In a word: turnovers.

Tampa turned the ball over 41 times last season, an incredible number. That’s more than two-and-a-half turnovers every game, and it basically ruined everything else positive the team was accomplishing.

Tampa had three or more turnovers in half of their games, including games with five and seven TOs. They were 2–6 in those games. In the rest of their games, they were a modest 5–3 team. If the Bucs just didn’t give the ball away all game, they were a playoff team.

Remember how the Bucs had an elite run defense and finished around league average in yards allowed, even with a terrible secondary? They also allowed the fourth most points in the NFL somehow. How does that happen?

It happens when your very good defense is constantly put in terrible positions all game long.

The Bucs turned the ball over on 20.7% of their drives this season. That ranks worst in the NFL, and it means more than one in every five times Tampa got the ball, the defense was rushed back out onto the field with not enough rest, often with their backs against the goal line in terrible field position.

Tampa’s defense had the third worst starting position in the NFL, as opponents averaged starting outside their own 30. The Bucs defense ranked top-7 in the NFL in yards, plays, and time allowed per drive. They got the job done quite often. But they were out there on the field far too often, and too many times they had just barely gotten off the field from the last stop and were suddenly in terrible defensive field position.

As you can imagine, Jameis Winston is the biggest root of that problem.

Winston led the NFL with 30 interceptions this season. Those 30 picks were the seventh most in league history and the most in the NFL in over 30 years since, and this will probably not be a shock at this point, Tampa’s own Vinny Testaverde in 1988.

Winston threw 30 interceptions last season. That’s more interceptions than Tom Brady has thrown in the last four seasons combined. It’s almost as many as Brady has in 41 career playoff games. It’s horrendous.

Winston has always been a turnover machine. And while Tom Brady may be old and his skills may be fading, one thing he’s always been is careful with the football. He has 11 or fewer interceptions in eight straight seasons and a career 1.8% interception rate, about a third of Winston’s 4.8% this season.

Jameis had 10 games this year with at least two interceptions, and 3+ picks five times. Tom Brady has eight games his entire career with 3+ interceptions.

Winston had SEVEN pick-sixes this season, including one on his final pass as a Buccaneer, an all-time NFL record. That’s 42 free points Winston gave to the opponent. Brady’s final pass as a Patriot was a pick-six too, so I guess that’s one thing these two have in common.

It’s not just the interception number either. Winston is a sack-eating machine. He was sacked 47 times this year, over 7% of his dropbacks. Sacks are a quarterback stat. The line matters, but good quarterbacks know how to throw the ball away rather than taking a loss. Brady’s career sack rate is under 5%, and it’s closer to 4% over the past half a decade.

Can Tom Brady still make the big throw down the seam to hit these receivers at age 43? That remains to be seen. But one thing we know for sure is that he’s going to make far, far fewer mistakes than Jameis Winston.

And just eliminating those killer mistakes could be the difference between a losing season and a playoff team.

The team around Brady is pretty good!

Brady won’t have to do this alone. In fact, he might have more help offensively than he’s ever had.

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are as good as any pair of receivers in football. Whichever of those guys is WR2 is easily the most talented WR2 Brady’s ever had. Both are more talented wide receivers than anyone Brady’s played with not named Randy.

Think about it. Who’s the best WR Brady’s ever played with, outside of that record-breaking Moss season? Brandin Cooks? A few games of Josh Gordon? One with Antonio Brown? It’s pretty much old faithful slot men Wes Welker and Julian Edelman. And Mike Evans and Chris Godwin ain’t Welker and Edelman.

O.J. Howard is a monster at tight end, and Cameron Brate is pretty good too. Howard is going to love Brady. Just ask Rob Gronkowski. Howard and Brate are the most talented tight end combo Brady’s played with since Gronk and Aaron Hernandez.

Ronald Jones came into his own over the second half of his sophomore season. He averaged 5.1 yards per touch and over 10 yards per catch, and he’s going to have a lot of space in this offense. Jones also had a high broken tackle percentage, which bodes well for his future. He’s not great, but he’s fine.

The offensive line was terrific. PFF graded Tampa as the #7 offensive line in football, with an especially strong pass blocking unit on the interior. The Patriots were #10, for reference.

The team will need a slot receiver. Chis Hogan and Philip Dorsett are free agents, or Breshard Perriman could return. The rumor today is that Brady wants to bring Antonio Brown with him. I suppose he would suffice. They’ll need a more physical running back too, but that’s easy to find.

The defensive front seven is terrific and doesn’t need much help, though you can always use more pass rushing. The secondary needs a ton of work. Cornerback will be a major priority in the rest of free agency and the draft, and the Bucs should try to improve their special teams too.

It’s not a perfect team, but it’s a pretty talented roster. Maybe even more talented than New England’s on paper. The Bucs pick 14th in the draft and have an extra fourth rounder this season. They’ll have opportunities to help their secondary, maybe to add another runner or an offensive tackle.

On paper, this team can easily be a top-10 roster heading into the season. And that’s only even counting Brady as an average quarterback. If he plays anything close to what he’s capable, they could be as good as anyone.

So just how good could Tampa Bay be?

Talent or not, it won’t be easy.

Teams don’t average 6–10 over four decades without finding creative ways to lose, and we’ve never been here before with a 43-year-old quarterback.

It’s a pretty tough schedule, too. The Bucs will have to play the Saints and Falcons twice each within their division, and they also play the NFC North and AFC West. That means games against the Chiefs, Packers, and Vikings plus added road trips to Denver and Chicago.

The Bucs are probably only clear favorites five times this season — against the Panthers (twice), Giants, Lions, and Raiders. The Saints are still division favorites, which means fighting for a wildcard berth and probably playing on the road the entire playoffs, though remember, seven NFC teams make the playoffs now.

The Bucs probably need nine wins to make the playoffs. Going 5–1 in the NFC South would probably do it, but 4–2 is more likely, with splits against Atlanta and New Orleans. Add in those five easy wins and you’re at nine, maybe 10 or 11 if you grab another 50/50 game.

Nine wins very likely makes the playoffs now, with expansion. And though Brady could have to play on the road, many likely NFC destinations are either warm weather or indoors. The Bucs will certainly hope to avoid a January trip to Green Bay, Philadelphia, or Chicago for their quadragenarian, but then again, it’s not like Brady’s never played in snow before.

The Bucs were 3–6 in one-score games last season. They had close losses in New Orleans and Seattle and a big win on the road against the Rams. History tells us one-score games are mostly random. Flip those results to 6–3 and the Bucs are 10–6 and in the playoffs. History also tells us turnover luck tends to even out over time. The Bucs were already a team that was in good position for an upswing this season.

Now replace Jameis Winston with Tom Brady, add a reliable third receiver, and give Brady an incredible array of weapons all season in Evans, Godwin, Howard, Brate, and Jones, plus a terrific defense at his back. What’s this team’s ceiling?

Could Tampa finish with something like a top-5 offense and top-10 on D? That would be a pretty similar profile to the Saints each of the last two years. That’s a top Super Bowl contender. A slightly worse version of that means this year’s Packers or Seahawks. Not the best team in the NFL, but still a clear playoff team with a real chance.

Maybe it’s too much to expect all that from Brady, and the reality is that I don’t expect him to put up MVP numbers or anything close to it. I’m not sure he has to. Brady can be something like the 12th best quarterback in the NFL and that’s still a huge, massive improvement on this team, especially with the expected swing in turnovers. He doesn’t have to be Drew Brees. He can be Kirk Cousins.

In fact, maybe that’s a more realistic outcome for these Bucs. Perhaps top-10 is more realistic than top-5 on offense. But don’t forget, the Bucs were already the #5 defense in DVOA a year ago, even while put in terrible position all year. Why couldn’t they be top-5 again… or better?

Now you have the Vikings from the few years, a terrific defense with great offensive weapons that can go as far as their quarterback takes them. But instead of Case Keenum or Kirk Cousins, you get Tom Brady.

Maybe LeBron James really did just come to Minnesota.

So what do you get if you start with an elite passing offense and run defense plus a brilliant head coach in Bruce Arians, then subtract the turnover problem and add in Brady’s upside?

You might have a real shot at 11 or 12 wins, maybe even more.

Maybe even a real, bonafide Super Bowl contender. ■

Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.