Final 2019–20 NFL Power Rankings and Season Review

Let’s take one last look at the 2019 NFL season and see what we learned about all 32 teams before free agency and the draft…

PATRICK MAHOMES, ANDY REID, AND THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ARE NFL CHAMPIONS. What a world! I’m still not sure which of the three I’m happiest for. It was a wild run for the Chiefs, who needed comebacks over the Texans, Titans, and 49ers to win that ring, and that capped off a crazy season that unexpectedly featured the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers atop the standings much of the year.

We’re only a week away from free agency and barely a month from the 2020 NFL Draft, but before we turn the page to the new season, it’s worth taking one last look at the 2019 NFL season that was. Which teams were the most or successful relative to expectations, how do the final Power Rankings shape up, and what all did we learn about teach team along the way?

TIER I — THE CHAMPS

1. Kansas City Chiefs 12–4 (3)

Under 10.5 — MISS

I thought the Chiefs would take a step back from last season, and the reality is that they did. The offense was nowhere near what it was in 2018, and Patrick Mahomes dropped from 50 to 26 TDs in a season beset by injuries. Until the final couple weeks of the season, it just never really felt like their year.

Still, I was never out on the Chiefs. I still ranked them among my SB contenders and kept them between 2 and 5 in my Power Rankings most of the season, always in the top 10 even when Mahomes was out awhile, but never quite at the top.

The Chiefs are deserving champs and that’s all that matters now, but a lot of balls bounced right for them to get there. Tom Brady lost to Ryans Fitzpatrick and Tannehill consecutively, bouncing the Pats and giving the Chiefs a bye week, and Kansas City needed three straight huge Mahomes comebacks to win it all. This was really, really close to not happening, any number of times.

None of that matters now. Flags fly forever.

TIER II — MAYBE IN AN ALTERNATE TIMELINE

2. San Francisco 49ers 13–3 (2)

Under 8 — MISS

The 49ers were my big 2018 sleeper and I couldn’t talk my way back into them this season. I listed them among my teams moving in the right direction but didn’t think the defense was ready, stupidly calling them the most likely 3–0 team to miss the playoffs even when they looked great early. I started San Fran at 20 in my Power Rankings and still had them at 12 at that point.

By Week 6 I had moved the 49ers into my top 3, and they never left again. The incredible defense slowed down some as the season went along, but Kyle Shanahan worked his magic on the offense as they caught up. The 49ers were a force to be reckoned with.

3. Baltimore Ravens 14–2 (1)

Over 8.5 — HIT (lock)

The Ravens were my big Super Bowl sleeper at +4000 odds, and they were my best call of the season, even if they came up short. Most of my best futures bets this season came on Baltimore.

Look, playoffs are great and all, but it’s worth remembering that weird stuff happens in the playoffs. The Ravens were the best team in the NFL this season, and it wasn’t even really that close. They finished the year with a +249 point differential, by far best in the league, and Lamar Jackson crushed his laughable over/under-14.5 passing TDs, leading the league with 36 and winning MVP in a breakout second season.

The Ravens were awesome on every side of the ball. The offense was unlike any other in the league, running over, around, and right through teams, and the defense and special teams were championship caliber. The Chiefs are the champs, but this was the Ravens’ season, and that’s worth remembering too.

4. New Orleans Saints 13–3 (4)

Over 10.5 — HIT

Another great season ending in heartbreak for the Saints. New Orleans has been the best non-Patriots team in football the last three years at 37–11 but has somehow won only one playoff game over that stretch. Just sheer rotten luck for a team that should’ve made at least one Super Bowl in that span.

New Orleans was in the 2-to-4 range of my Power Rankings 11 times but never quite made it to 1… much like the team. Looks like they have one more chance.

TIER III — WE HAD A GOOD RUN

5. New England Patriots 12–4 (5)

Over 11 — HIT

The fact that this feels like such a disappointing Patriots season is really all you need to know about this franchise being the best in football by a mile.

The Patriots were #1 in the Power Rankings the first nine weeks before I slowly started to lose belief in this team. They began a slow fade to #5 and never went up again. And yet it still took a complete collapse over their final two games just to keep them to “only” 12–4, a millionth straight division title, a top-5 finish, and their first season since 2010 to miss the AFC Conference Championship game.

New England was just fine this year. But if Tom Brady really leaves, the writing might already be on the wall for the rest of this roster…

6. Green Bay Packers 13–3 (6)

Over 9.5 — HIT

The Packers were the lowest variance team in my Power Rankings, falling in the 6-to-8 range all but a few weeks. They were consistently good and never great, finishing the season with a meager +63 point differential, much more of a 10-win team than a 13–3 behemoth.

If Aaron Rodgers stays healthy, the Packers almost always win 10+ games, and I had their alternate over-10.5 line as one of my favorite bets at +215 and picked Matt LaFleur as my Coach of the Year, expecting a big turnaround.

The truth is that this team felt a little disappointing to me, in the end. They never felt like a serious threat to win it all, and Rodgers’ window may be closing quickly along with Brees and Brady.

7. Minnesota Vikings 10–6 (9)

Under 9 — MISS

I guess it’s only appropriate the Vikings finish at 7, since I ranked them #7 six times during the season too. Minnesota had a successful season, as Kirk Cousins quietly had the best year of his career, but the team never really put everything together. The run game, passing attack, and defense were each great at times and MIA at others, and they never found all three at once.

8. Seattle Seahawks 11–5 (7)

Over 8.5 — HIT

Seattle finished with a +7 point differential. They won 11 games by one score, including their one playoff win. They were a good team at times, but mostly a doggone lucky team that probably stole the Rams’ playoff spot.

TIER IV — DANGEROUS IF EVERYTHING CLICKED

9. Tennessee Titans 9–7 (11)

Under 8 — MISS

Fun fact: the Tennessee Titans have finished 9–7 four straight seasons.

Somehow, astonishingly, that’s true. The Titans have never been particularly relevant at any point in that stretch either, right up until they ended the incredible Baltimore season and possibly the Tom Brady era too.

So was that Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill thing for real? I have my doubts. Tennessee was in the 19-to-23 range in my Power Rankings for over half the season before everything clicked late. I’m not sure they’ll catch lightning in a bottle again, but I suppose we’ll revisit this when they 9–7 yet again next fall.

10. Buffalo Bills 10–6 (8)

Under 6.5 — MISS

The Bills were a big miss for me. I ranked them among my eight worst teams and started them bottom-5 in my Power Rankings, eventually moving them middle of the pack and into the 8-to-10 range by season’s end.

Still, I never really believed. Buffalo’s defense was terrific, but the offense was a sham, and I’m still out on Josh Allen. He improved by leaps and bounds this year, but he had a long way to improve. Buffalo has the right culture and defense, but the offense still doesn’t make sense to me.

11. Houston Texans 10–6 (10)

Under 8.5 — MISS

The Texans were the AFC version of the Seahawks, finishing with a -7 point differential despite winning the division. They were a consistently above average team, ranking 10 to 15 all but one week. Basically, they were exactly what we saw against the Chiefs in the playoffs — good enough to go up 24–0 on even the best teams, and bad enough to blow it anytime anywhere.

12. Los Angeles Rams 9–7 (12)

Under 10.5 — MISS

In Week 3, I ranked the Rams as the safest 3–0 team to make the playoffs. They lost three straight games after that, dropped to #14 in my Power Rankings, and never made it back to the top 10 again.

The weird thing is… I’m not totally sure what went wrong. If you ran the season back again 100 times and gave the Rams a 3–0 head start, I think they miss the playoffs in only a handful of scenarios. Sean McVay and Jared Goff never really got the offense humming at peak level, but this was still a dangerous team every week that should be as good as any again next season.

TIER V — STUCK IN THE MIDDLE

13. Atlanta Falcons 7–9 (13)

Over 9 — MISS

Okay, we’re hitting the gooey middle here, so let’s pick up the pace.

The Falcons are another team that probably finished on the lower end of their potential outcomes. They were a pretty solid all around team, even if they were never really important enough for anyone to notice.

14. Philadelphia Eagles 9–7 (15)

Under 9.5 — MISS (lock)

The Eagles were my Super Bowl winner pick, but they just never got healthy. Carson Wentz finally stayed healthy the one year everyone else got hurt. You can’t do much about injuries, and honestly, it’s pretty remarkable they still won the division despite it all.

15. Dallas Cowboys 8–8 (16)

Under 9 — HIT

The Cowboys were among the league’s most disappointing teams, but the reality is that they were quite good until their coach had to make some key decisions. Dallas started the year on fire, leaping from 18 to 4 in my Power Rankings by Week 3, then falling almost all the way back. They finished with a +113 point differential, more like a 12-win team than a .500 squad. That’s the sort of thing that happens when you win seven games by double digits but go 1–6 in one-score games. Your move, Mike McCarthy.

16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7–9 (14)

Under 6.5 — MISS

The Bucs made a slow rise to respectability at the end of the season, rising from #28 after Week 12 to 25, 21, 18, 16, and 14 in order. They had a shockingly good defense but were done in by Jameis Winston’s first ever 5000–30–30 season. At least we made some easy money grabbing Jameis at +750 to lead the league in interceptions.

17. Denver Broncos 7–9 (25)

Over 7 — PUSH

The Broncos are another late riser thanks to a strong close under rookie QB Drew Lock. They were 24 to 27 in the Power Rankings all but three weeks but won four of their final five. Let’s see if they can carry that momentum into next season.

18. New York Jets 7–9 (20)

Over 7.5 — MISS

The Jets had their season derailed early when Sam Darnold caught kissing disease but got to 7–9 anyway. Their season grade ends up something like an incomplete, though the strong finish might be the worst thing that happened since it means them keeping Adam Gase at head coach.

TIER VI — IT WASN’T SUPPOSED TO GO THIS WAY

19. Chicago Bears 8–8 (22)

Under 9 — HIT

The Bears typically don’t perform well when there are expectations, and this season was no different. I had Chicago among my eight teams taking a step back once the defense inevitably regressed, and that’s pretty much exactly how the season went. The Bears badly need to get Mitchell Trubisky some competition at QB. The glass ceiling is far too obvious.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers 8–8 (17)

Under 9 — HIT

The Steelers essentially lost their entire big three on offense with LeVeon Bell leaving in free agency, Ben Roethlisberger getting hurt, and Antonio Brown… doing whatever Antonio Brown does. They’re another team I saw taking a step back, and they did, but they also finished one game out of the AFC playoffs. Assuming Big Ben comes back healthy, the team culture and defense should put them right back in the mix next year.

21. Indianapolis Colts 7–9 (19)

Under 6.5 — MISS

I was out on the Colts early, even before Andrew Luck’s shock retirement, but then slowly talked myself into them. Indianapolis opened at #24 in the Power Rankings and rose all the way to #6 for one brief week before fading right about back to where I started them. Yes, QB really is that important. I’m sorry you had to find out this way.

22. Oakland Raiders 7–9 (18)

Under 6 — MISS

Jon Gruden got more out of this offense than I expected, so there’s that. I genuinely don’t know how this team won seven games this year. The Raiders had the third worst point differential in the entire AFC.

23. Arizona Cardinals 5–10–1 (24)

Under 5 — PUSH

The Cardinals were never any good, but they were a fun watch anyway under rookie QB Kyler Murray and new coach Kliff Kingsbury. I loved their over-304.5 points at +130 and they scored 360 instead, even without getting much all season from David Johnson. This offense could be a candidate to take a serious leap in Year 2, maybe a la Baltimore.

TIER VII — WELL THAT WAS UNEXPECTED

24. Los Angeles Chargers 5–11 (23)

Under 9.5 — HIT (lock)

The Chargers were my biggest fade of the year, and I was dead right about them. While most pundits listed them among their Super Bowl contenders, I called their alternate under-8.5 at +220 my favorite bet on the board, and the Chargers didn’t even get close.

Their 5–11 record was an embarrassment considering all their talent, but it’s also misleading. The Chargers finished with a -8 point differential but went 2–9 in one-score games. Flip the results of all those games and the Chargers are 12–4 instead with a first-round bye. Alas. Now L.A. is moving on from Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon, and Russell Okung, and the rebuild is on.

25. Miami Dolphins 5–11 (28)

Under 4.5 — MISS

In some ways, the Dolphins had one of the most surprisingly successful seasons in the NFL. The way they were trading all their talent away and tanking, most expected them to win a game or two at best. Instead they went 5–4 over the second half of the season and changed the Patriots dynasty forever when they shocked them Week 17, knocking them out of the bye.

26. Cleveland Browns 6–10 (21)

Over 9 — MISS

There’s little question that the Browns were NFL’s single biggest disappointment. I must admit I bought into the hype. I listed the Browns among my eight Super Bowl contenders, and it seems so foolish now to think I believed they were a better bet to win 10+ games than 8 or fewer, after all we’ve known about Cleveland over the years.

So what exactly went wrong for Cleveland? In a word, nearly everything. Nick Chubb had the breakout season many envisioned, and he came one huge Derrick Henry game away from paying off my +1800 rushing title pick, but almost everything else in Cleveland was a disaster. The offensive line and defense never measured up, and Baker Mayfield took a huge step backwards.

Freddie Kitchens was an abject disaster and was fired after one season. Up next, it’s Kevin Stefanski. The Browns still haven’t been over .500 for even one second since December 7, 2014. Maybe we should start there next season.

TIER VIII — CONSISTENTLY MEH

27. Jacksonville Jaguars 6–10 (26)

Over 8 — MISS (lock)

The Jaguars were one of my biggest misses. I never totally believed in Jacksonville because of Nick Foles, but I jumped whole hog into Minshew Mania. Truthfully, I picked Jacksonville largely for one reason — an NFL bottom feeder had won the division in 15 of the last 16 years, and I didn’t like any of the other options. I talked myself into Jacksonville and even backed them as the most likely 0–2 team to flip the script and make the playoffs. It turns out neither one of those things happened this year. The bad teams pretty much just stayed bad.

28. Carolina Panthers 5–11 (27)

Under 7.5 — HIT

The Panthers were always one of the most volatile teams to predict because of Cam Newton’s health, and when Newton went out after two games, so did Carolina’s chances. Matt Rhule gets the reins now, and we’ll see exactly how much of a restart this turns out to be.

29. New York Giants 4–12 (29)

Over 6 — MISS

I took the Giants over under the premise that someone in the NFC East had to win some games, but that pretty much turned out to be false. What a terrible division. The Eli Manning era is over. Your show now, Daniel Jones.

TIER IX — THE FISH TANK

30. Detroit Lions 3–12–1 (30)

Over 6.5 — MISS (lock)

No one really cares about the Lions enough to notice, but they were quietly one of the most disappointing teams this season. Do you realize this team started the year 2–0–1? Forgot didn’t you. They only won one more game after that and finished on a nine-game losing streak, starting something called David Blough five times at quarterback. I thought the Lions were more mediocre than bad, and they were 3–4–1 with Matt Stafford, but the bottom fell out fast once he got hurt.

31. Washington Haskins 3–13 (31)

Under 6.5 — HIT

Washington was in the bottom five of my Power Rankings all but one week. They sucked and weren’t even relevant. Washington was the only NFL team without a win against a team with more than five wins all season.

32. Cincinnati Bengals 2–14 (32)

Under 6 — HIT

There was always a risk of the bottom falling out on this team. I had the Bengals as one of the four most likely teams to end up picking #1 at +900 odds, and Joe Burrow should go a long way toward turning this team around. But he’s going to need a lot of help.

OVERALL RESULTS

On the whole, it was a season of close but no cigar for me.

I finished 13–17–2 on over/unders, including 2–3 on locks, though my biggest plays were on the Ravens and Chargers and those paid off big. Five teams entered Week 17 with their over/under in play. I lost all of them.

My final four teams before the season were the Eagles, Rams, Ravens, and Patriots. None of them made the Conference Championship. Instead those games featured the 49ers and Titans, two teams I had projected at 7–9. To my credit, I did jump in on both of those teams as the season progressed.

My weekly picks were better. I finished the regular season 140–111–2 (55.8%), with best bets going 28–23–1 (54.9%). Hey, not bad!

Baltimore at +4000 to win it all looked like a golden ticket in December, but that’s sports. You win some, and you lose some.

Unless, of course, you’re the Browns…

Then you pretty much just always lose. ■

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