2019 NFL Power Rankings at the Quarter Pole

Taking stock of every NFL team around the league as the playoffs round into focus, plus ATS picks for every Week 14 game…

DECEMBER IS HERE, AND DOWN THE STRETCH THEY COME!! There’s a lot of misuse of the term “quarter pole” these days. Quarter pole is a horse racing term, and horse racing measures the race by how much is still remaining, not by how much has already been run, always looking forward. This week marks the 2019 NFL quarter pole, with just one quarter of the regular season remaining. Three-fourths of the race has been run; we’re finally hitting the home stretch with the finish line in sight.

And what a week of football we have ahead of us, maybe the best week of the entire regular season! The Chiefs-Patriots rematch is finally here, and the Saints and 49ers battle for the NFC 1-seed. The scorching hot Ravens travel to Buffalo, while the Rams play for their lives against the Seahawks. That’s eight of the top 11 teams in the NFL playing one another this weekend in what could very well be a Divisional Round preview.

So as 32 teams round the quarter pole and enter the home stretch, it’s time to take stock once more around the league with an NFL power rankings. What have we learned about every team after 12 games? Let’s take a deep dive on every team and make some Week 14 picks…

TIER I — CLEAR FAVORITES NOW

1. Baltimore Ravens 10–2 (Last week: 1)

The Ravens are finally the #1 DVOA team, and they’re simply a tier above everyone else at this point. In fact, Baltimore is the eighth best team ever (since 1985) through 12 games, going by DVOA scores. The Ravens are tied with four other teams at 10–2 but they rank top five on offense, defense, and special teams. Those latter two are annual John Harbaugh traditions, but add in the #1 offense and this team is unbeatable until proven otherwise. They have dominant wins the last two months against the 49ers, Seahawks, and Patriots — oh hey, speaking of which…!

TIER II — THE TOP CONTENDERS… QUESTION MARK?

2. San Francisco 49ers 10–2 (2) 3. Seattle Seahawks 10–2 (4) 4. New England Patriots 10–2 (3)

Baltimore is definitely #1, but it’s anyone’s guess who’s second right now. All three of these teams suddenly appear vulnerable, despite all being 10–2.

I’m still not sold on Seattle. They repeatedly get in close games and repeatedly pull it out of their butt late, Pete Carroll style. Seattle is 9–1 in one-score games, and everything we know tells us that isn’t sustainable. Except Seattle never gets blown out, so if they’re always close late and they have the MVP at quarterback so… maybe this works?

San Francisco and New England have been a Spiderman meme all year. They’ve dominated on defense, been mediocre on offense, and done it against a pretty weak schedule. That’s about to change for both. San Fran has the Saints, Falcons, Rams, and Seahawks to close out the season, and they just dropped to the 5-seed. You’re kidding yourself if you think Jimmy Garoppolo can win three road playoff games. They need that bye.

And that may actually be true of 42-year-old Tom Brady at this point, too. Are we sure New England is elite? They’re not just the NFL version of the San Antonio Spurs, gaming the regular season by thrashing bad teams with lots of defense? The Pats barely beat the Eagles and Cowboys recently, and those teams are terrible. They got crushed in their two biggest games on the road against the Ravens and Texans. Sure, the metrics look great, but they’re boosted by five blowout wins against teams in the bottom tier of our power rankings. New England plays those teams twice more still but also Buffalo and Kansas City.

Look, we’ve seen this before, and New England always finds a way. They probably will again… or they’ll get blown out by Patrick Mahomes, fall to the 5-seed behind Buffalo, lose another road game against the Chiefs or Texans, and the dynasty will be over. It’s in play. They have no offensive weapons, can’t run the football, and Brady looks very average. How many other NFL quarterbacks could you give New England the rest of the season and feel just as good about their chances? Over or under 10? It’s happening… maybe.

TIER III — HIGH CEILINGS + AN OCCASIONAL TURD

5. Kansas City Chiefs 8–4 (5) 6. New Orleans Saints 10–2 (6) 7. Minnesota Vikings 8–4 (5) 8. Green Bay Packers 9–3 (7)

Call me crazy, but I feel better about one of these teams winning the Super Bowl than the tier above them. I like the ultimate ceiling better, even if each of them has had a bumpy road along the way.

The Chiefs are finally healthy again for the most part, as healthy as they’ve been all season, and they looked the part against the Raiders. The Patrick Mahomes injuries probably cost them a shot at a bye, but they’ll be dangerous against anyone in January. The Saints are the sleeping giant. If you asked someone to name all five 10–2 teams, New Orleans would be the last one they’d think of. The Saints haven’t even played particularly great yet this year, outside of Michael Thomas and the surprisingly good defense. They’re in a great position to grab the 1-seed and would still be my NFC Super Bowl pick.

The Vikings and Packers are jostling for position behind them and need the NFC West teams to cannibalize each other to have a shot at a bye. I’m convinced the Vikings are better than the Packers, and heresy or not, they may even have the better quarterback this season. They’ll have the chance to prove it in a few weeks.

TIER IV — PLAYOFFS BUT THEN WHAT

9. Houston Texans 8–4 (10) 10. Buffalo Bills 9–3 (11) 11. Los Angeles Rams 7–5 (16) 12. Tennessee Titans 7–5 (13)

How many teams do you think have a real genuine chance of winning the Super Bowl this season? I’m not sure any of these teams make the cut. This feels like a tier of teams hoping to pull off one playoff win.

The Texans have a high ceiling if Deshaun Watson shows up, but there are still too many clunkers. They still play the Titans twice, and Houston is no playoff lock just yet. Tennessee has one of the league’s hottest offenses with a lot of Derrick Henry and a system that’s made Ryan Tannehill look like a Pro Bowler (seriously). Neither of these teams is a playoff pushover. The Titans still have a very real path to the 3-seed.

The Bills have surely locked a playoff spot up at this point. Josh Allen has improved a lot — he’s still not good, but he’s at least passable now, and the defense is still doing enough. Buffalo still feels like a pretty average team, and they have the metrics of a 6–6 team instead of the 9–3 record they sport, but they’re coming off their two best games of the season and the coaches are getting the most out of this roster. The Bills have the Ravens, Steelers, and Patriots next, so let’s see how far they’ve come.

That’s certainly not true for the Rams, who should never belong in a tier with these teams. L.A.’s roster is so loaded and just hasn’t figured things out, and time might be up. They host Seattle on Sunday night before traveling to Dallas and San Francisco. They’re certainly talented enough to win all three, and at this point, they probably have to. Sean McVay and Jared Goff, where you at??

TIER V — SO VERY MEDIOCRE

13. Dallas Cowboys 6–6 (9) 14. Pittsburgh Steelers 7–5 (19) 15. Indianapolis Colts 6–6 (12) 16. Chicago Bears 6–6 (16) 17. Oakland Raiders 6–6 (18)

These were the rankings before Thursday night, so sure, feel free to swap Chicago and Dallas. They’re both still mediocre and forgettable, and the NFC East is an absolute disaster.

I still can’t figure out what to make of the Steelers. Their win over the Browns last week knocked Cleveland out of any real contention, and they’ve now won six of seven, but all but one of those wins were by one score and they have three road games left plus a visit from Buffalo. Credit Mike Tomlin for how he’s turned this defense around and kept a dude named Duck in playoff contention, but it might not be enough to matter.

The Raiders and Colts remain in the mix, because math, but Indy just can’t get healthy and Oakland lost by about 300 the last two weeks.

TIER VI — AIN’T THEIR YEAR

18. Philadelphia Eagles 5–7 (15) 19. Los Angeles Chargers 4–8 (20) 20. Cleveland Browns 5–7 (14) 21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5–7 (25)

Is there anything left to say about these teams? They just keep finding ways to lose and embarrass themselves.

In Tampa’s case, the real embarrassment is that they just earned their way up to this tier. In Philly’s, it’s an acknowledgement that this team has been downright mediocre ever since they sold their soul for a Nick Foles Super Bowl run. Flags fly forever.

TIER VII — THERE WAS A MOMENT

22. Denver Broncos 4–8 (27) 23. Carolina Panthers 5–7 (23) 24. Arizona Cardinals 3–8–1 (22) 25. Atlanta Falcons 3–9 (24) 26. Jacksonville Jaguars 4–8 (26) 27. Detroit Lions 3–8–1 (28)

These teams all had their moments. Denver has a playoff defense. Arizona should be happy with Kyler Murray’s development. Jacksonville would be in the playoff race if they’d stuck with Gardner Minshew all year. Alas. Everyone here is looking forward to 2020, though at least with some reason for hope.

TIER VIII — THE FISH TANK

28. Washington Haskins 3–9 (28) 29. Miami Dolphins 3–9 (31) 30. New York Giants 2–10 (29) 31. Cincinnati Bengals 1–11 (32) 32. New York Jets 4–8 (23)

Do they Jets deserve to be ranked last? They did just win three games in a row… but they also lost to winless Miami and Cincinnati teams in the past month, becoming the first team in NFL history to lose to two 0–7 or worse teams in the same season. They get the #32 spot for a week.

There’s not much else here, but credit to Brian Flores for coaching a Division III squad to three NFL wins somehow. That fake field goal touchdown was the play of the season. The Dolphins still play three more teams from this tier, too, so they may not be done yet. RIP, Fish Tank.

Let’s make some Week 14 picks…

THURSDAY NIGHT

Chicago 31, Dallas 24

Thanksgiving travels threw my week off and I forgot to make a pick here. Good on Mitchell Trubisky playing just well enough to keep his job another year and keep the Bears safely irrelevant.

THE STAY AWAYS

Jacksonville +3 vs Los Angeles Chargers

There’s just no reason to bet on a game like this, where there’s literally nothing at stake for either team. I’m sorry — some stay aways are really worth staying away from. Tickets are available for $14. Seriously.

Atlanta -2 vs Carolina

Looks like the Panthers are starting over at both coach and quarterback. The Falcons might be too, if you get a whiff of their cap. Atlanta’s won four in a row and seven of the last eight against Carolina and the Falcons are better, barring a dead Panther bounce.

Miami +6 at New York Jets

Just when I was ready to write Miami back off, they went and beat the Eagles, while the Jets lost to the Bungles. New York is the league’s highest variance team, so they’ll either win this game by 30 or lose outright.

HANGING AROUND THE FRINGES

Cincinnati +8 at Cleveland

The Browns are more mediocre than bad, and maybe that was always the next step. Cleveland hasn’t been over .500 for a single second since December 13, 2014. They’ll celebrate their fifth year of losing football in a week.

Pittsburgh -2 at Arizona

I really want to make this a best bet but just can’t put that much stock into Duck Hodges yet. Arizona has been competitive in most of their games, and Pittsburgh’s offense isn’t reliable enough, especially on the road. This game will tell us if the Steelers really have a shot down the stretch.

Indianapolis +3 at Tampa Bay

Would you believe the Bucs are actually top-10 on defense but bottom-10 on offense? It’s true. The Colts keep playing close games, so that means trying to decide if you trust Jameis Winston in a close game late. Spoiler: you don’t.

Tennessee -2.5 at Oakland

These are two of the five highest variance teams in the NFL, so you just don’t know what you’re getting. What we do know is that the Raiders defense stinks, and the Titans sure seem to be rolling on offense. If the teams from the last couple weeks show up, the Tennessee should win by a couple TDs.

THE BIG HOME FAVORITES

Denver +9 at Houston

There’s another timeline out there where the Broncos catch all the luck and are the defense-first 9–3 team instead of Buffalo, but alas, it has not happened. Drew Lock making his first road start should be enough to take Houston, but the Texans like to play down to their competition.

Detroit +14 at Minnesota

Speaking of playing down to their competition, the Vikings have made a living in my lifetime out of turning absolutely nothingburger quarterbacks into career days. Hope David Blough is ready for 325 yards and a couple scores.

Green Bay -12.5 vs Washington

The Packers aren’t that great but they’re 9–3 anyways with Washington and Chicago coming to town and a Week 17 Lions game to boot. Thanks, scheduling gods. I’m really tempted to take Washington, but the thought of NFL Redzone flipping to Dwayne Haskins at snowy Lambeau down 14 late going for a backdoor cover makes me want to vomit.

FOUR MONSTER WEEK 14 GAMES

New Orleans -2 vs San Francisco

This is quietly the game I’m most intrigued by this week, so of course it’s not on TV. Special. Both at 10–2, the winner is in the driver’s seat for the NFC 1-seed. I gotta side with Drew Brees at home until proven otherwise, but it feels like we’re going to learn a lot about these two teams.

Los Angeles Rams PK vs Seattle (Sunday night)

These teams always play close, weird games. Seven of their last nine have been one-score affairs. You’d think that should favor Russell Wilson, but the Rams are 5–2 in those games and desperately need this to keep any playoff hopes alive. I can’t believe I’m picking Jared Goff over Russell Wilson.

Baltimore -5.5 at Buffalo

Get ready for a lot of talk about “exciting young running quarterbacks” and a “playoff preview.” I don’t buy it. Only one of these QBs is exciting, and the only playoff preview here will be of Buffalo getting dominated by a really good team that’s a lot better than them.

New England -3 vs Kansas City

The Chiefs took the Pats to the wire twice last year, losing 43–40 and 37–31 in overtime, and you know Andy Reid has had this one circled. The Patriots have been awful in their two biggest games and just don’t seem that good. And yet… we’ve seen New England play this exact game at this exact point of the season 15 times before, and they win every single time. The Patriots are 12–4 under Bill Belichick as home favorites of three points or less, and they’re like 87–3 after a loss. New England always wins this game. They just do.

WEEK 14 BEST BETS

Baltimore -5.5 at Buffalo New England -3 vs Kansas City New York Giants +8.5 at Philadelphia (Monday)

Eli Manning comes off the bench for a heroic Monday night win, then reels off three more Ws against Washington, Miami, and Philly again and the Giants sneak into the playoffs as 6–10 NFC East champs?! This sets up all too well for an Eli swan song. The Eagles stink, and the Giants have played them to a one-score game in seven of the last 10 matchups. Philly has covered this line only twice all season. They’ll probably win and move into a tie for first place in the NFC East at 6–7, but that doesn’t mean you have to watch. ■

Last week: 9–7 Season total: 101–89–1 Best bets: 20–19–1

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