2019 NFL Preview Week
The 8 NFL Sleepers Heading in the Right Direction in 2019
Our NFL season preview of all 32 teams continues, with 8 teams set to surprise everyone in 2019…
NFL SEASON PREVIEW WEEK HAS REACHED THE SLEEPERS, eight overlooked teams ready to take a step forward in 2019. We already ruled out the eight worst teams in the league and dumped on eight more moving in the wrong direction. Now it’s time to get hyped about eight teams ready to take a serious step forward in a league of parity and constant change.
No team on this list won more than eight games in 2018. Together they won 47 games and lost 80, and they all finished in the bottom half of the division. But this year, things are looking up! I’ve already written about a couple of these teams looking for this year’s worst-to-first division winner, and two or three of these sleepers should even make the 2019–20 playoffs.
Last year’s sleepers included the Bears, Browns, and Texans. The Browns improved from 0 to 7 wins. The Texans leapt from 4 wins to 11 and won the AFC South. The Bears jumped from 5–11 to 12–4 and won the NFC North as the league’s breakout sleeper. Every big 2018 sleeper hit made our list.
Remember, this isn’t a power rankings. Yesterday’s overrated Chargers and Bears are not worse than some of these teams, but they’re all stuck in the middle together, and at least they’re all ahead of the eight bottom feeders.
So who is this year’s big sleeper? It’s one of these eight teams…
San Francisco 49ers
It’s starting to feel like the 49ers might just stay sleeping forever. San Francisco has been a popular sleeper pick two years in a row before winning just six and four games, but last year they had some obvious excuses when they lost Jimmy Garoppolo, Jerick McKinnon, and Marquise Goodwin to injury all by Week 3. Not many teams can lose their top QB, RB, and WR and live to fight another day.
Garoppolo is healthy and the 49ers have reloaded and will surely win more than four games this year. The one sure thing on offense is George Kittle, but now guys like Tevin Coleman, Dante Pettis, and Deebo Samuel have joined the mix to give the 49ers plenty of weapons. They also have Nick Mullens at QB, who was almost as successful as Jimmy G once he settled in. This offense has had everything go wrong two straight years and still finished around league average. That’s a testament to Kyle Shanahan’s brilliance.
The defense is the reason this team still isn’t ready to make a big leap. For all they’ve invested there, the pieces haven’t quite come together. Hopefully #2 pick Nick Bosa will help. He’s the fourth first-round pick the 49ers have spent on this D-line in five years, so it’s time to see some production.
Last year’s 49ers were my pick to go worst-to-first in the division. Oops. This year, let’s just see if they can get to around average.
Under 8 — play
New York Jets
Like the 49ers, the Jets will definitely be better in 2019, and they’ll definitely win more than four games. Heck, they might win four games in the division alone with the Dolphins and Bills around.
Sam Darnold had a rough start. He threw a pick-6 on his first pass as a pro, then racked up 14 interceptions in his first 10 starts before missing a month injured. But he looked like a different player upon his return. His completion percentage jumped from 55 to 64%, and his QB rating leapt from 68 to 99. He threw six TDs in four games with just one pick, and the Jets looked and played much better. Add in a Pro Bowl caliber RB in Le’Veon Bell plus some underrated receivers and this offense could really do something.
The Jets offense ranked 29th in offensive DVOA last year, but this year’s crew should finish closer to league average. The defense is tough up the middle but weak around the edges. This was better than a 4-win team a year ago and probably should have won 5.9 games based on the underlying numbers. Instead they were one of the league’s highest-variance teams, which is the sort of thing that happens with an erratic rookie quarterback.
Bet on Darnold to take a big step forward this fall. And when he does, the entire team should go with him.
Over 7.5 — play
Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions are better than you think. The weird thing is they have been for awhile. Detroit went 6–10 last year. In the five years before that, the Lions won 9, 9, 7, 11, and 7 games. Since 2013, the Lions are 49–47. They’re over .500! Who knew?! They’re even better in the division, a robust 23–13 against tough NFC North foes during that stretch. Are the Lions… kinda good?
Yes, they’re exactly that: kinda good. No more, no less. The offense in particular is extremely kinda good. The offensive line is slightly above league average. Matt Stafford is a slightly above average quarterback. The skill players, too. The offense is mostly kinda good. And so is the defense! The line is just actually good, no qualifier needed, and so are the corners. The rest of the defense needs work, but hey, no one’s perfect.
The Lions are a very kinda good team. They just happen to play in a loaded division where all four teams might have gotten better. In another division, Detroit might be a sneaky bet to win a few close games and steal the division. In the NFC North, they may have to play spoiler.
Of course… that’s what I ultimately decided about the Bears last year too.
Over 6.5 — LOCK
Denver Broncos
The Broncos went 6–10 last year but might have been the league’s biggest underachiever. Denver was solid all season but couldn’t catch a break. They played one of the league’s toughest schedules and got miserable special teams luck despite a top-5 defense. Football Outsider metrics suggest the Broncos should have won 8.8 games, even in a brutal division with the AFC’s two best records.
The two big changes this year come at quarterback and head coach, and they’re both positive steps. Vic Fangio finally gets his shot after years masterminding a terrific Bears defense and he has almost as many toys, including stud pass rushers Von Miller and Bradley Chubb and an excellent set of corners. Joe Flacco is not a lot of things anymore, but he is better than career retread Case Keenum. Flacco is the ultimate game manager. He knows how to get the ball to his talented skill players and let the defense do the rest.
Denver is more than than just a foil to the Chiefs and Chargers. They have the goods to finish ahead of at least one of those teams in the AFC West this fall and push for a wildcard spot.
Over 7 — play
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers may be the NFL’s most schizophrenic team. Their win total the last seven seasons resembles the heart monitor their fans must be feeling: 7, 11, 6, 15, 7, 12, 7. This team just can’t get things right two years in a row.
It’s not a coincidence Cam Newton’s played four healthy seasons in that stretch and three of them were in those win-spike years. As Cam goes, so go the Panthers. Newton had offseason shoulder surgery and barely played in preseason before leaving in a walking boot, but the team swears he’s healthy and ready to start the season.
The Panthers are an old-school team that wins in the trenches, running the ball and stopping the run. The O-line is good and the defensive front seven is great. Christian McCaffrey is a stud that does everything. The run game is strong; the pass game, not so much. Newton has never been particularly accurate and relies on tall receivers snagging balls, and D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel don’t exactly fit the bill. The secondary is the weakest spot on the team. Carolina is an excellent front runner but struggles to play catch up.
This might be the most unpredictable team on the board. Carolina will probably win 6 or 11 games and not much in between. Keep an eye on Cam Newton to figure out which direction their season is heading.
Over 7.5 — pass
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons tied those Panthers at 7–9, and it was a disaster of a season that began with a heartbreaking loss on Opening Night and was immediately complicated by the injury of two key Pro Bowl defenders for almost the entire season. Atlanta was a popular Super Bowl pick one year ago like this year’s Eagles, wonderful the previous year before an off year, but many were picking them to get back. This year, everyone seems to have moved on.
Matt Ryan has been in Atlanta 11 seasons. Last season was only his third ever below .500. Ryan averages 9.3 wins, almost always in contention. The Falcons have had a top-10 offense four years running, and now they get Devonta Freeman back, but the offense has never been the problem. Atlanta’s had a bottom-10 DVOA defense each of the last three years and ranked #31 last year without Deion Jones and Keanu Neal. That pair returns healthy this fall but the defense is still below average.
How much below average? That will determine the fate of this team. An average D puts the Falcons back in the playoffs. Below average and they’re on the cusp. Flat out bad again, and Dan Quinn will be looking for a new job.
Over 9 — pass
Jacksonville Jaguars
Two years ago, the Jaguars had the #1 defense with an offense that did just enough to get this team to 10–6 and win the AFC South. Last year the defense was great instead of elite, the offense collapsed, and the bottom fell out en route to a 5–11 finish. This year the Jaguars profile as the most likely worst-to-first division winner with a return to their winning 2017 formula.
It all starts with defense. All the best pieces remain, from Jalen Ramsey to Calais Campbell to A.J. Bouye, and they’ve added my Defensive Rookie of the Year pick, pass rusher, Josh Allen. Jacksonville could be back atop the league in defense again, or at least close.
The offense just needs to be better than the dumpster fire it was a year ago. A healthy Leonard Fournette should help, but not as much as the upgrade from Blake Bortles to Nick Foles. If you’re drowning in the ocean and someone throws you a life jacket, you may not survive for long, but it’s better than them tossing you a stick. Blake Bortles was a stick, and he’s finally gone. Nick Foles just needs to stay healthy and out of the way.
The Jaguars play in the league’s most wide open division with the league’s most ferocious defense. They were a fourth quarter collapse away from the Super Bowl just 20 months ago. They have the defense to get back there if Foles and co. can do enough.
Over 8 — LOCK
Minnesota Vikings
My beloved Vikings were a sad late addition to this column, bumped out of my Super Bowl contenders when I came to the sad conclusion that Kirk Cousins simply isn’t a Super Bowl winner. Cousins can take this team to the NFC Championship Game. He could even win a Matt Ryan-type MVP in the right offensive system with everything clicking around him. But I’m not sure I believe he can win that last game or two, and if he can’t, then this team is still, eternally, one quarterback short.
The rest of the roster looks ready. The defense is loaded, returning all but one starter from a top-3 defense. Mike Zimmer will have that crew flying, and that keeps Minnesota in any game. Few teams can match Minnesota’s skill players. Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are as good as any receiver duo, and Dalvin Cook finally looks healthy again, ready to add another dimension to this offense — so too new OC Kevin Stefanski and his revised Kubiak system.
But there are two key flaws on this team, and they remain a deadly combination. The offensive line should be improved but still isn’t close to average, and that bad line means a pressured Kirk Cousins. Cousins is as good as any quarterback when he can stand in a clean pocket and make his reads. Under pressure, he melts, and he’s going to face a lot of pressure amidst a difficult 2019 schedule.
Minnesota could be awesome. They have the weapons of a top-10 offense along with a top-5 defense, and that could even turn into 12 wins and a first-round bye if everything clicks. But when the games get their biggest, that O-line will rear its ugly head and Cousins will have yet another chance to prove himself in the spotlight. We’re still waiting.
Under 9 — pass
Be sure to check out the full season preview: 8 teams fighting for the #1 pick, 8 teams taking a step back this year, and 8 Super Bowl contenders, all published this week at SportsRaid! ■
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