Who Will Win NFL Coach of the Year, and Who Will Get Fired Instead?

Which 2019 NFL head coach will exceed expectations the most, and who will take the fall for a season gone awry?

HOW MUCH DOES COACHING MATTER IN THE NFL? Everyone has a different opinion. It matters a bunch, considering the fact that Bill Belichick has had the Patriots in the AFC Championship eight consecutive seasons, or the fact that anyone who’s ever had a ham sandwich with Rams coach Sean McVay got scooped up this offseason.

Coaches matter. Schemes matter. Talent matters too, but talent needs a system for everything to work. Coaches are the fall guys, but they’re also the unsung heroes when everything works. Every year some NFL coaches surprise everyone by exceeding expectations, and one of them wins Coach of the Year. But plenty of them disappoint too, and more than a few are shown the door.

So which coaches are the most likely to do each of those things this season?

THREE COACH OF THE YEAR PICKS

If you look at the recent Coach of the Year winners, a clear pattern emerges. Last year’s winner was Matt Nagy, the first-year coach that took the Bears from 5–11 to 12–4. The previous winner, Sean McVay, helped the Rams improve from 4–12 to 11–5 in his first year in Los Angeles, flipping the offense from #32 to #1 in the league. The year before, Jason Garrett pushed the Cowboys from 4–12 to 13–3.

My study for SportsBook Review shows that the average Coach of the Year this decade wins 12.4 games and improves their team almost double, up from 6.3 wins the previous season. Plus four of the past eight COY winners won the award in their first year with the team. So we need a team that was average this year that could be great this season, and all the better if the coach is new.

Coach of the Year is about exceeding expectations. Here are three likely 2019 winners.

Vic Fangio DEN +2000

Fangio sort of won the award already a year ago, since he was on Nagy’s staff in Chicago. A defensive wizard, Fangio has masterminded great defenses for years. Now he finally gets his shot at a head coaching gig at age 61, and he gets a whole lot of defensive weapons too.

Von Miller and Bradley Chubb will be a fearsome pass rushing duo, and Denver has great corners. They also have a strong run game and added a veteran QB in Joe Flacco that knows how to manage games and let the defense win. The Broncos should improve a lot from last year’s 6–10 finish. Can they improve by enough for Fangio to win?

Doug Marrone JAX +2500

Speaking of defense, Jacksonville has plenty of it. Many of the names are still there from 2017’s #1 defense, and rookie Josh Allen adds a fearsome pass rush to the mix. Everything went wrong for last year’s Jaguars at 5–11, but now they get a fresh start with a dominant D and a division without Andrew Luck.

They also swap Blake Bortles for, well, pretty much anyone not named Bortles is an upgrade, and Nick Foles is a Super Bowl winner. Can’t you look at the Jaguars and see last year’s Bears? The AFC South is there for the taking, and Marrone is a club favorite. He’s half these odds (+1200) to be the first coach fired, but he might have a better chance of winning Coach of the Year if he takes the Jags from worst to first in the division.

Matt LaFleur GB +2000

LaFleur is the best bet for Coach of the Year. He has all the makings. Green Bay fell apart last year and won only 6 games, finally moving on from Mike McCarthy after over a decade together. Now they get a fresh start and a new more modern offensive system around their MVP quarterback, Aaron Rodgers.

They’ll also get a lot of help on defense, where they ranked bottom-5 a year ago. Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage are a dynamic new pair of safeties, and the line is good. A little improvement from the linebackers or corners could help this unit be above average. A horrible 2018 Packers season means a long overdue fresh start and a gift of a schedule.

If the Packers jump from 6 to 12 wins and grab an NFC bye, Rodgers will be in MVP contention, and Matt LaFleur will be a Coach of the Year front runner. The voters love a shiny, new coach and a narrative. Green Bay has a higher ceiling than Denver and Jacksonville, and the most obvious change from a season ago is replacing McCarthy with LaFleur. He could be the story.

THREE COACHES WHO MAY GET FIRED FIRST

Of course, only one guy can win Coach of the Year, and quite a few more of them will be on the hot seat.

There’s no magic formula to pick which coach might be fired first. They just need to lose, a lot, and they need to be able to look like the fall guy. These are the three coaches that could be first to get the hook this fall:

Jason Garrett DAL +1500

Somehow Garrett has become one of the longest tenured NFL coaches. He’s been there since 2010 and feels like he’s been on the hot seat every year, even though Dallas has only finished below .500 once under Garrett. Jerry Jones is always itching to make a move, and he’s reportedly infatuated with new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.

Dallas has a dream opening schedule against the Giants, Redskins, and Dolphins, but that also sets Garrett up to fail if he goes anything less than 3–0. And remember, he might be missing Ezekiel Elliott for some or all of those. After that, the schedule gets ugly quickly: Saints, Packers, Jets, and Eagles. If Dallas loses an easy one early and then goes on a 3+ game losing streak, it might finally be curtains for Garrett.

Dan Quinn ATL +1200

Quinn has won 7+ games all four years in Atlanta and took the Falcons to the Super Bowl two-and-a-half years ago, but they melted down in the second half and have really never gotten over that hangover. Atlanta won 10 games the next year and only 7 last season. Quinn is supposed to be a defensive expert, but the defense has never measured up.

The Falcons have a brutal schedule to open the season: Vikings, Eagles, Colts, Titans, Texans, Cardinals, Rams, and Seahawks. They could lose any of those games and could easily fall to 3–5 or 2–6 in a daunting division. Atlanta might just feel like they need a fresh start.

Bill O’Brien HOU +1200

Houston has gone all-in on this season, and they’ve done so with O’Brien essentially playing general manager and making a huge series of trades that could cripple the franchise long-term, even if they pay off now. The Texans finally got a left tackle in Laremy Tunsil, but he’s not even a great one, and he can’t play offensive line on his own.

O’Brien’s name comes up every year anyway, and now the pressure is on. The AFC South suddenly feels wide open without Andrew Luck, and O’Brien’s trades signal this team is ready to win now. But the opening schedule is brutal. Houston begins the year at New Orleans on Monday night, then follows that up with the Jaguars, Chargers, Panthers, Falcons, and Chiefs.

The Texans could lose any one of those games. What if they start 2–4 or 1–5? What if the team still can’t block anyone or run the football and the trades aren’t magically fixing everything? Houston has no choice but to continue to push all-in this year, and they’d need to pick a fall guy.

Do you pick the coach or the GM? In Houston’s case, it won’t matter. O’Brien might be gone either way. ■

Check out my in-depth analysis of all 32 coaches for each award at SportsBook Review. Follow me on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of my writing archives here.