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Abstract

   </figure></iframe></div></div></figure><h2 id="66d1">2. LB Devin White TB</h2><p id="40f5">The other Devin linebacker was drafted five spots earlier, at #5 overall. Tampa Bay had one of the worst defenses in the league last year, and like Bush, White steps into a role that has never really been replaced once Kwon Alexander left. White may be even better, and he has the chance to rack up a ton of tackles like Indianapolis LB Darius Leonard, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Alexander led the entire NFL in solo tackles his sophomore year, and Tampa’s defense will be on the field a lot, so there’s big opportunity here.</p><h2 id="4c9b">1. Josh Allen JAX</h2><p id="d2ec">Every now and then, a new star pass rusher hits the NFL scene and we know it almost immediately. It happened with Von Miller, who had 11.5 sacks and made a Pro Bowl for a great Broncos defense his rookie year, and Josh Allen could be next. Allen was one of the most tantalizing prospects in the draft with his blend of size and speed, and he’s been tearing it up in the preseason. <a href="https://twitter.com/NFL_DovKleiman/status/1164717241201545216?s=20">Allen was in the Dolphins backfield</a> almost as much as Miami’s quarterback in one game. The Jaguars were the league’s #1 defense two years ago, and Allen’s presence could vault them back to that status this fall. He’s a big part of why the Jaguars are <a href="https://readmedium.com/worst-to-first-nfl-team-division-winner-2019-football-jets-jaguars-giants-cardinals-raiders-lions-bengals-6285ad6892d3?source=friends_link&amp;sk=85101d01c1cc551fa3d867129f362c01">my pick as this year’s worst-to-first division winner</a>, and at +1600, he’s a great winning bet for Defensive Rookie of the Year.</p><div id="8bfe" class="link-block">
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            <h2>Who Is This Year’s Worst to First NFL Team?</h2>
            <div><h3>Which 2018 bottom feeder will shock everyone by turning things around and winning its division in 2019?</h3></div>
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    </div><h1 id="2d23">OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR LADDER</h1><h2 id="40b0">Honorable mentions</h2><p id="20e0">My research shows that Offensive Rookie of the Year almost always goes to a quarterback or running back, with 16 of the 19 awards this century given out to one of those two positions. No tight end has won it, so as much as I like Detroit’s <b>T.J. Hockenson </b>and Denver’s<b> Noah Fant</b> long term, they’re not in the running this year.</p><p id="fd26">Rookie of the Year also isn’t typically a wide receiver award, with only three such winners this century, and this was a particularly weak WR draft. Baltimore’s <b>Marquise Brown</b> and New England’s <b>N’Keal Harry</b> were the only two taken in the first round, and both have struggled through preseason injuries and already fallen behind. This probably will not be the year to buck the QBs-or-RBs-only trend.</p><p id="10a1">Washington’s <b>Dwayne Haskins</b> fits the bill, since most quarterback ROYs are first-round picks, but I’m not sure I see him getting enough opportunity or having enough help to perform well even if he does. One other honorable mention is Rams RB <b>Darrell Henderson</b>, who could absolutely win this thing if Todd Gurley really is washed, but if Henderson is more of a change of pace home run hitter, he won’t get enough touches.</p><h2 id="4b07">7. RB Darwin Thompson KC</h2><p id="a971">Darwin Thompson reminds me of Brian Westbrook, and that’s never a bad thing when you’re playing for Andy Reid. He and fellow rookie WR Mecole Hardman, a Tyreek Hill clone, are just more weapons for this offense. Neither will likely get enough touches to win ROY, but they’ll both pop on NFL Red Zone a few times either way.</p><h2 id="ac6b">6. RB Miles Sanders PHI</h2><p id="705b">I actually really like Miles Sanders as a great fit for the Eagles, a well-rounded player that runs well, catches passes, and can potentially play all three downs. The problem is Doug Pederson seems to have no interest in doing that with his running backs, and with Jordan Howard, Darren Sproles, Chase Clement, and others around, I’m not sure Sanders will get the volume he needs to be properly recognized, even if he really helps the team.</p><h2 id="4d19">5. QB Daniel Jones NYG</h2><p id="6ccb">Jones was one of the biggest buzz guys this preseason, and I was really impressed every time I saw him. It’s only preseason, but he still made a lot of reads and throws I never saw from him at Duke. The question now is when Jones will take the reins from Eli Manning. If he takes over by Week 3 or 4, he could have a shot at Rookie of the Year, but he’ll need a lot of New York media hype. His team is unlikely to win much, and most QB ROYs push their teams into the playoff mix. Jones is likely to be a buzz name in November and December but not one that ultimately pushes for the big award.</p>
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<img class="ratio" src="http://placehold.it/16x9"> <iframe class="" src="https://cdn.embedly.com/widgets/media.html?type=text%2Fhtml&key=a19fcc184b9711e1b4764040d3dc5c07&schema=twitter&url=https%3A//twitter.com/wheatonbrando/status/1164966843855048705&image=https%3A//i.embed.ly/1/image%3Furl%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fpbs.twimg.com%252Fprofile_images%252F929093466612752384%252FOBDBtkML_400x400.jpg%26key%3Da19fcc184b9711e1b4764040d3dc5c07" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="281" width="500"> </div> </div> </figure></iframe></div></div></figure><h2 id="9a6f">4. RB Josh Jacobs OAK</h2><p id="4d22">Jacobs is an obvious ROY pick, the one RB taken in the first round at #24 overall. He steps into an obvious starting role for a team that hasn’t had a bell cow running back for years. The problem is Oakland is a disaster, as we’ve all seen on <i>Hard Knocks</i>. Their line isn’t very good anymore, and the team is running outdated schemes and concepts. Jacobs is a nice player and will probably post good enough numbers, but I have a hard time seeing him stand out.</p><h2 id="be60">3. RB Tony Pollard DAL</h2><p id="f439">Look, this is actually a pretty dumb hedge. Pollard will not finish third in the Rookie of the Year race. He’ll either win it or be so off the radar that most people won’t even remember he exists in two months. That’s because Pollard is Ezekiel Elliott’s backup in Dallas, and he looked good in preseason action. The Cowboys still have one of the league’s best lines, and Zeke has averaged about 1750 yards and 11 TDs in his three years with Dallas. If Zeke ends up sitting out the whole year and Pollard gets anything close to his role, he <i>will </i>win Rookie of the Year, and he’ll win you your fantasy league too.</p><h2 id="023e">2. QB Kyler Murray ARI</h2><p id="4034">Murray is <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nfl/who-will-win-nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year/91962/">the heavy betting favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year at +170</a>, and he ought to be. Murray was the #1 pick after a dazzling Heisman campaign, and he puts up highlight reel numbers in the air and on the ground. He fits perfectly into the mold of previous ROY winners — a high-profile top-3 pick that should put up huge numbers, especially with the presumed volume he’ll see under Kliff Kingsbury’s up-tempo attack. The only question is how much voters will penalize Murray if the Cardinals remain irrelevant and win only 4 to 6 games, rendering his numbers mostly meaningless. But <a href="https://readmedium.com/kyler-murray-better-than-josh-allen-nfl-preseason-analysis-arizona-cardinals-buffalo-bills-quarterback-36f18ad3c990?source=friends_link&sk=79e184fb252e6c0da35350024ace769b">he’s a rookie you’ll want to watch</a> either way.</p><h2 id="4e47">1. RB David Montgomery CHI</h2><p id="4aa7">Montgomery is my Rookie of the Year pick, and while he opened at +2000, he’s been bet up to +1000 after a strong preseason showing. Montgomery does a little bit of everything. He’s looked good in pass protection and can catch the ball, so that affords him a potential three-down role. <a href="https://twitter.com/PFF_Fantasy/status/1165987074467606529?s=20">PFF grades Montgomery</a> as the best RB in their database history at forcing missed tackles, typically a great measure of future success, and the Bears have already said they expect to use Tarik Cohen less this season, not more, even with Jordan Howard gone. Montgomery could be the centerpiece of this Bears offense by midseason, and he’s my early leader for Offensive Rookie of the Year. ■</p> <figure id="f1eb"> <div> <div> <img class="ratio" src="http://placehold.it/16x9"> <iframe class="" src="https://cdn.embedly.com/widgets/media.html?type=text%2Fhtml&key=a19fcc184b9711e1b4764040d3dc5c07&schema=twitter&url=https%3A//twitter.com/pff_fantasy/status/1165987074467606529&image=https%3A//i.embed.ly/1/image%3Furl%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fpbs.twimg.com%252Fprofile_images%252F1011704080778039296%252FPaDLMks7_400x400.jpg%26key%3Da19fcc184b9711e1b4764040d3dc5c07" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="281" width="500"> </div> </div> </figure></iframe></div></div></figure><p id="44e0"><i>Read my full-length analysis for <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nfl/who-will-win-nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year/91962/">Offensive ROY</a> and <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nfl/who-will-win-2019-ap-nfl-defensive-rookie-of-the-year/91869/">Defensive ROY</a> at SportsBook Review. Follow Brandon on Medium or <a href="https://twitter.com/wheatonbrando">@wheatonbrando</a> for more sports, TV, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s <a href="https://readmedium.com/brandon-anderson-writing-archives-6b3ee1a29301#.6cteu050v">writing archives here</a>.</i></p><figure id="3b76"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*YnbtD8IipCsqVjNwkjtY8w.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure id="2ba5"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*d318hSQDEA-NP2sgKkTINw.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure id="0963"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*jwbMPAfFsxT_PGFz7US69Q.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure></article></body>

Who Will Win NFL Rookie of the Year in 2019?

Saquon Barkley and Baker Mayfield lit up the NFL last year. Will Kyler Murray follow in their footsteps, or will another rookie grab the spotlight?

ONE OF THE MOST FUN PARTS OF EVERY NFL SEASON is the discovery of the new rookie stars that year. Last season, Giants rookie Saquon Barkley dazzled crowds with over 2000 rushing and receiving yards along with 15 touchdowns, while Baker Mayfield had everyone talking about the Cleveland Browns as the season went along, setting the rookie record for passing TDs. In 2017, Alvin Kamara came out of nowhere to electrify the Saints, averaging 7.7 yards per touch and racking up 13 TDs. The year before that, Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott showed up in Dallas and took the Cowboys from 4–12 in 2015 to 13–3 and the NFC 1-seed.

A single great rookie can make all the difference, and no matter how much studying and draft prep we do, no one really knows what a rookie will look like on the big stage until the bright lights come on. Preseason can only tell us so much. It’s time for the big show.

So who will be this year’s breakout rookie? The NFL actually awards two Rookie of the Year awards, one for offense and one for defense, and technically the Associated Press is the one giving out the awards. Let’s do a quick preseason Rookie of the Year ladder for both sides of the ball.

You can read a more in-depth look at Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year in my long-form analysis at SportsBook Review.

Why Kyler Murray Is Better Than He Looks This Preseason… and Why Josh Allen Might Be Worse

Numbers don’t tell the whole story. Murray is much closer to being a successful NFL quarterback than Allen.

DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR LADDER

7. DE Nick Bosa SF

Bosa’s brother Joey won this award three years ago for the Chargers, and baby bro might be even more talented. The #2 pick in the draft is a big time pass rusher, but he’s already dealing with preseason ankle and leg injuries and reportedly around 50/50 to be ready for the opener. That puts him behind the 8-ball and could mean a longer learning curve, despite the obvious talent.

6. DT Ed Oliver BUF

Oliver was a beast for Houston, but his size and lack of competition caused him to slide out of the top 10. He’s been good so far and should see a lot of single teams with plenty of talent around him in Buffalo, but it’s tough for a defensive tackle to stand out and Oliver will need to earn his stripes.

5. S Darnell Savage GB

No safety has won Defensive Rookie of the Year this decade, though Darwin James probably should have last year. Savage steps in as an immediate strong safety starter next to new Packer Adrian Amos. The two could transform the Packers defense and help put Green Bay back on track in the NFC North.

4. DT Quinnen Williams NYJ

Williams was the best player in the draft and should make an impact right away for the Jets, but again, it’s tough for a defensive tackle to stand out. Williams may not rack up eye-popping numbers, but his presence will have a ripple effect on the entire defense. The Jets are a team on the rise, but Sam Darnold and Le’Veon Bell may get more of the credit for that rise.

3. LB Devin Bush PIT

Bush is the Bovada betting favorite for this award at +500, and it’s easy to see why. Bush was one of the slam dunk picks on draft day, a perfect fit to slide right into the hole at inside linebacker that Ryan Shazier has left. Pittsburgh is no longer Linebacker U, and its defense is hardly a Steel Curtain. Bush will hope to change that, but he’s going to have to be the centerpiece. He already looks like an elite run defender.

2. LB Devin White TB

The other Devin linebacker was drafted five spots earlier, at #5 overall. Tampa Bay had one of the worst defenses in the league last year, and like Bush, White steps into a role that has never really been replaced once Kwon Alexander left. White may be even better, and he has the chance to rack up a ton of tackles like Indianapolis LB Darius Leonard, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Alexander led the entire NFL in solo tackles his sophomore year, and Tampa’s defense will be on the field a lot, so there’s big opportunity here.

1. Josh Allen JAX

Every now and then, a new star pass rusher hits the NFL scene and we know it almost immediately. It happened with Von Miller, who had 11.5 sacks and made a Pro Bowl for a great Broncos defense his rookie year, and Josh Allen could be next. Allen was one of the most tantalizing prospects in the draft with his blend of size and speed, and he’s been tearing it up in the preseason. Allen was in the Dolphins backfield almost as much as Miami’s quarterback in one game. The Jaguars were the league’s #1 defense two years ago, and Allen’s presence could vault them back to that status this fall. He’s a big part of why the Jaguars are my pick as this year’s worst-to-first division winner, and at +1600, he’s a great winning bet for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Who Is This Year’s Worst to First NFL Team?

Which 2018 bottom feeder will shock everyone by turning things around and winning its division in 2019?

OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR LADDER

Honorable mentions

My research shows that Offensive Rookie of the Year almost always goes to a quarterback or running back, with 16 of the 19 awards this century given out to one of those two positions. No tight end has won it, so as much as I like Detroit’s T.J. Hockenson and Denver’s Noah Fant long term, they’re not in the running this year.

Rookie of the Year also isn’t typically a wide receiver award, with only three such winners this century, and this was a particularly weak WR draft. Baltimore’s Marquise Brown and New England’s N’Keal Harry were the only two taken in the first round, and both have struggled through preseason injuries and already fallen behind. This probably will not be the year to buck the QBs-or-RBs-only trend.

Washington’s Dwayne Haskins fits the bill, since most quarterback ROYs are first-round picks, but I’m not sure I see him getting enough opportunity or having enough help to perform well even if he does. One other honorable mention is Rams RB Darrell Henderson, who could absolutely win this thing if Todd Gurley really is washed, but if Henderson is more of a change of pace home run hitter, he won’t get enough touches.

7. RB Darwin Thompson KC

Darwin Thompson reminds me of Brian Westbrook, and that’s never a bad thing when you’re playing for Andy Reid. He and fellow rookie WR Mecole Hardman, a Tyreek Hill clone, are just more weapons for this offense. Neither will likely get enough touches to win ROY, but they’ll both pop on NFL Red Zone a few times either way.

6. RB Miles Sanders PHI

I actually really like Miles Sanders as a great fit for the Eagles, a well-rounded player that runs well, catches passes, and can potentially play all three downs. The problem is Doug Pederson seems to have no interest in doing that with his running backs, and with Jordan Howard, Darren Sproles, Chase Clement, and others around, I’m not sure Sanders will get the volume he needs to be properly recognized, even if he really helps the team.

5. QB Daniel Jones NYG

Jones was one of the biggest buzz guys this preseason, and I was really impressed every time I saw him. It’s only preseason, but he still made a lot of reads and throws I never saw from him at Duke. The question now is when Jones will take the reins from Eli Manning. If he takes over by Week 3 or 4, he could have a shot at Rookie of the Year, but he’ll need a lot of New York media hype. His team is unlikely to win much, and most QB ROYs push their teams into the playoff mix. Jones is likely to be a buzz name in November and December but not one that ultimately pushes for the big award.

4. RB Josh Jacobs OAK

Jacobs is an obvious ROY pick, the one RB taken in the first round at #24 overall. He steps into an obvious starting role for a team that hasn’t had a bell cow running back for years. The problem is Oakland is a disaster, as we’ve all seen on Hard Knocks. Their line isn’t very good anymore, and the team is running outdated schemes and concepts. Jacobs is a nice player and will probably post good enough numbers, but I have a hard time seeing him stand out.

3. RB Tony Pollard DAL

Look, this is actually a pretty dumb hedge. Pollard will not finish third in the Rookie of the Year race. He’ll either win it or be so off the radar that most people won’t even remember he exists in two months. That’s because Pollard is Ezekiel Elliott’s backup in Dallas, and he looked good in preseason action. The Cowboys still have one of the league’s best lines, and Zeke has averaged about 1750 yards and 11 TDs in his three years with Dallas. If Zeke ends up sitting out the whole year and Pollard gets anything close to his role, he will win Rookie of the Year, and he’ll win you your fantasy league too.

2. QB Kyler Murray ARI

Murray is the heavy betting favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year at +170, and he ought to be. Murray was the #1 pick after a dazzling Heisman campaign, and he puts up highlight reel numbers in the air and on the ground. He fits perfectly into the mold of previous ROY winners — a high-profile top-3 pick that should put up huge numbers, especially with the presumed volume he’ll see under Kliff Kingsbury’s up-tempo attack. The only question is how much voters will penalize Murray if the Cardinals remain irrelevant and win only 4 to 6 games, rendering his numbers mostly meaningless. But he’s a rookie you’ll want to watch either way.

1. RB David Montgomery CHI

Montgomery is my Rookie of the Year pick, and while he opened at +2000, he’s been bet up to +1000 after a strong preseason showing. Montgomery does a little bit of everything. He’s looked good in pass protection and can catch the ball, so that affords him a potential three-down role. PFF grades Montgomery as the best RB in their database history at forcing missed tackles, typically a great measure of future success, and the Bears have already said they expect to use Tarik Cohen less this season, not more, even with Jordan Howard gone. Montgomery could be the centerpiece of this Bears offense by midseason, and he’s my early leader for Offensive Rookie of the Year. ■

Read my full-length analysis for Offensive ROY and Defensive ROY at SportsBook Review. Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, TV, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.