2019 NFL Preview Week

The 8 NFL Super Bowl Contenders in 2019

The finale of our 4-part NFL season preview of all 32 teams, with 8 Super Bowl contenders vying to win it all in 2019…

WE FINALLY MADE IT. The 2019 NFL season is here at last. The Green Bay Packers kick off Thursday night against the Chicago Bears. Both begin the season with clear Super Bowl aspirations, but only one of them is among the eight true Super Bowl contenders.

We spent NFL Season Preview Week 2019 breaking down all 32 NFL teams into four blocks of eight. We began first with the eight bottom feeders fighting for the #1 pick, considered eight teams headed in the wrong direction, then pondered eight sleepers ready to surprise.

But there are no more surprises here. These eight teams already have one hand on the Lombardi, and this season is Super Bowl or bust. Let’s take a look at the top eight contenders to the crown…

Cleveland Browns

It’s possible for a team to be both over-hyped and good all at once, and the Cleveland Browns are both. The Browns won the offseason with the Odell Beckham Jr. trade and all sorts of buzz as they push for their first winning season since… *checks notes*… 2007?! The Browns have averaged five wins a year since, never even cracking nine wins in any two-year stretch of that run.

These Browns may be different. Baker Mayfield had one of the all-time great rookie quarterback seasons. He is the brash leader this team needs and the confidence that changed everything. Now he has a stud receiver in OBJ, and Nick Chubb could be the next great running back. Cleveland has its triplets.

Cleveland has the big names now, but there’s a distinct lack of balance amidst the glitz and glamour. The offensive line is suspect, and the defense is remarkably average outside of a few top names like Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward. This team will face some growing pains amidst all the expectations.

Cleveland lost every possible way to start last season, and that’s saying something for the Browns, but they started to get the bounces late. They even almost made it over .500 for the first time since December 14, 2014.

The Browns were among my sleeper teams on their way up until a late swap gave them the Vikings’ place among the Super Bowl contenders. Minnesota is the better team now, but they might not be by the end of December. Are the Browns ready for the big show?

Over 9 — pass

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are my sleeper Super Bowl contender. I love how this team is coming together. Lamar Jackson was quietly quite good as a rookie QB, a high-end version of a game manager that didn’t make many mistakes and threw in occasional flashy plays with his legs. He’ll get help this year from RB Mark Ingram, the perfect fit for this team, and rookies Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin give him some targets to grow with. Baltimore’s offense is a work in progress, but they’re progressing.

The defense faces a bit of a reset after a few departures, but they’ve also added Earl Thomas to anchor the secondary. Baltimore can stack their secondary up against anyone, and John Harbaugh always keeps this team’s defense and special teams near the top of the league. Both units have ranked top 6 in DVOA three years in a row, and the offense was actually above league average last year too.

If Jackson takes another step forward with the new weapons around him and the defense takes its shape amidst new faces, Baltimore could contend for another division crown or even a bye. This team looks built for a January run. Baltimore has its formula, and they know what they are. The rest of the NFL may find out soon, too.

Over 8.5 — LOCK

Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers is a cheat code. Rodgers has won 11, 10, 14, 11, 12, 10, 10, and 6 games in healthy seasons since his first year on the job. Normally Rodgers wins at least 60% of his starts. Sixty percent means 10 wins, 10 wins means playoffs, and playoffs with Rodgers means Super Bowl contender. The problem is the cheat code might be broken. Rodgers won only 38% of his games last year and is coming off the first two-year stretch of his career without a playoff win. Is Aaron Rodgers washed?

Doubtful. Rodgers is 35, child’s play compared to the other quarterbacks atop the league. The truth is he just hasn’t had much help, and he’ll get a lot more of it this year. That starts with my Coach of the Year pick, Matt LaFleur, who learned under both Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay and should add some real wrinkles to this offense. Add in a good O-line and weapons Rodgers always makes better, and the offense will be great.

Of course, offense is never really the problem. The Packers ranked 29th last year in both defense and special teams DVOA. The defense should be much better. New safeties Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage will set the tone, and Jaire Alexander looks ready to step forward as a lock-down corner. If Green Bay’s defense can be at least average, this team will contend again, just like they always do with Rodgers.

Over 9.5 — pass

Kansas City Chiefs

Last year’s final four featured the Chiefs, Rams, Saints, and Patriots, and those four are near the top of just about everyone’s contender list. But history says only one or two teams return to the Conference Finals. The Chiefs open as Super Bowl favorites but may actually be the most vulnerable of the four.

It’ll be hard for the offense to live up to last year. Patrick Mahomes threw for 5000 yards and 50 TDs in his first year as starter, coasting to an MVP. Tyreek Hill made a huge play every game, Travis Kelce was steady week after week, and Damien Williams stepped in late at running back. The Chiefs should be the most watchable team in football again when they have the ball.

It’s when they don’t have the ball that the questions kick in. The Chiefs spent big this offseason upgrading the D, trading for Frank Clark and signing Tyrann Mathieu and a handful of other veterans. The defense will look a lot different this year — but will it matter? The line is solid now but the secondary is the worst of any contender. The defense is still Kansas City’s Waterloo.

What if the Chiefs offense is just great instead of historically elite this season? The last two #1 DVOA offenses regressed to #5 and #9 the following year. If Kansas City does that and can’t improve their defense, they could be at risk of missing the playoffs, or at least being extremely flawed once they get there.

Andy Reid and a consistently great special teams are a great security blanket, but the Chiefs feels a lot like the old Saints teams, with all sorts of weapons but little defense or balance. Patrick Mahomes might have to win every game on his own.

Under 10.5 — play

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams might actually be better this season. That’s hard to imagine for a team that went 13–3 and made the Super Bowl, but that team was missing WR Cooper Kupp for half the season, the key to their passing game, and now they’ve added stud safety Eric Weddle. He makes gives L.A. the best secondary in the league, and Aaron Donald is the best defender in football. As scary as it sounds, the Rams defense might even be better than its offense in 2019.

But rest assured the offense will be just fine. Sean McVay will make sure of that. Kupp’s return will help, and Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods round out one of the league’s best receiving corps. The O-line is tough. Todd Gurley is one of the best running backs in the league when healthy, and rookie Darrell Henderson adds a spark. Jared Goff is the pilot behind it all.

If the team has any questions this fall, they may come on offense. Gurley and Kupp are at questionable health. LT Andrew Whitworth is ancient. Goff has been a question mark on the road and in the playoffs, and the questions will grow if he struggles, with his fat new contract extension. Could there be a Super Bowl hangover for a team that scored only three points in the biggest game of their lives?

Over 10.5 — pass

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have the deepest and most versatile roster in football plus an MVP quarterback and one of the best coaching staffs in football. If you squint a little, you might even see the New England Patriots.

No single running back or receiver is particularly scary, but the whole is greater than the sum. DeSean Jackson stretches the field. Darren Sproles makes guys miss. Alshon Jeffery hits the big plays. Jordan Howard does the dirty work. Rookie RB Miles Sanders does a bit of everything. Zach Ertz might be the best tight end in football. Every week it’s someone new, depending on that week’s game plan. And it’s all held together by an outstanding O-line and an MVP-level quarterback. Sounds familiar, right?

Last years was the season from hell for Philadelphia as they suffered injuries up and down the trenches and got devastated at cornerback. Carson Wentz missed the start and end of the season injured. And in that season from hell? Philly still went 9–7, almost won the division, and won a road playoff game.

Wentz finally looks healthy again, and the defensive front seven remains dominant. The one weak spot on the roster is at corner. Even so, the Eagles should look much like a typical Patriots season, gliding through a weak East division on cruise control and gearing up for another deep playoff run.

Over 9.5 — LOCK

New Orleans Saints

It’s really hard to make the case against the Saints. Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas are as good as any player at their position. The offensive line is terrific. The coaching staff is brilliant and experienced. The defense is good at every position. They have a Hall of Fame quarterback still seemingly at his peak. New Orleans was rolling into the playoffs each of the last two seasons. Then the Minneapolis Miracle and the pass interference no-call happened.

In another timeline, the Saints are defending back-to-back Super Bowl champions, Drew Brees has an MVP trophy, and New Orleans is the undisputed number one. They might be anyway.

The defense is more good than great, and they struggled early last season before settling in. The team psyche could falter a bit with those two heartbreaking losses to end dream seasons. Atlanta and Carolina could prove to be equally daunting divisional foes. But really, the only way this falls apart is if Drew Brees finally turns into a pumpkin at age 40 or gets hurt, and even if he does,Teddy Bridgewater is one of the best backups in the league.

The guess here is that Drew Brees finally wins another trophy this season — either the long-awaited MVP or the shiny gold one in February.

Over 10.5 — pass

New England Patriots

Death, taxes, and the New England Patriots coasting to a first-round bye and playing in the AFC Championship Game every January. It has literally happened in eight straight seasons. The last time the Pats didn’t play in the AFC title game, it involved Mark Sanchez, Rex Ryan, LaDainian Tomlinson, and rookie tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

New England won at least 14 games every single season this decade. What’s even left to preview? Just pencil the Patriots into a home game in the conference semis and go from there.

It’s easy to forget after yet another Super Bowl win, but this team is slowly getting worse. The defense ranked 16th in DVOA last year and is pretty forgettable outside of the secondary. The offensive skill players are nothing too exciting, especially now that Rob Gronkowski is retired. The offensive line is the one great spot on this team.

Well, that and at quarterback and coaching. Take away Brady and Belichick, and how excited are you for this roster? Give the Pats Kirk Cousins and Mike Zimmer, or Matts Stafford and Patricia. Now how many games are you picking New England to win? Are they even making the playoffs?

This is not a dominant roster, and if Brady ever realizes his age, things could crumble quickly. But they haven’t yet, and they know how to do enough to get to the postseason and peak when they get there, so what else is there to say?

Over 11 — pass

PRESEASON POWER RANKINGS

Here’s everyone! Catch my full Power Rankings at SportsBook Review.

32. Miami Dolphins — under 4.5, LOCK 31. Oakland Raiders — under 6, play 30. New York Giants — over 6, pass 29. Arizona Cardinals — under 5, pass 28. Washington Redskins — under 6.5, pass 27. Buffalo Bills — under 6.5, play 26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — under 6.5, play 25. Cincinnati Bengals — under 6, pass 24. Indianapolis Colts — under 6.5, play 23. Tennessee Titans — under 8, pass 22. Detroit Lions — over 6.5, LOCK 21. New York Jets — over 7.5, play 20. San Francisco 49ers — under 8, play 19. Denver Broncos — over 7, play 18. Dallas Cowboys — under 9, pass 17. Seattle Seahawks — over 8.5, pass 16. Pittsburgh Steelers — under 9, pass 15. Carolina Panthers — over 7.5, play 14. Houston Texans — under 8.5, play 13. Atlanta Falcons — over 9, pass 12. Jacksonville Jaguars — over 8, LOCK 11. Baltimore Ravens — over 8.5, LOCK 10. Green Bay Packers — over 9.5, pass 9. Minnesota Vikings — under 9, pass 8. Chicago Bears — under 9, play 7. Los Angeles Chargers — under 9.5, LOCK 6. Cleveland Browns — over 9, play 5. Kansas City Chiefs — under 10.5, play 4. Los Angeles Rams — over 10.5, pass 3. Philadelphia Eagles — over 9.5, LOCK 2. New Orleans Saints — over 10.5, pass 1. New England Patriots — over 11, pass

Thursday night opener

Green Bay +3 at Chicago

The Bears are 4–15 against the Packers this decade. Aaron Rodgers is 16–5 lifetime against the Bears, including 8–3 in Chicago. These are the facts, and the facts are undisputed.

These teams played a memorable season opener last fall, with Rodgers leaving with what looked like a serious injury, only to return in the second half and put up 21 fourth quarter points to secure a 24–23 comeback win. That turned out to be the only highlight of the season for the Packers, bookending a brilliant Bears season with two heartbreaking losses.

The pick here is easy. We’re in on the Packers and out on the Bears, and a Green Bay win here flips the entire 2018 narrative for both teams.

Rodgers will find a way. He always does.

Be sure to check out the full season preview: 8 teams fighting for the #1 pick, 8 teams taking a step back this year, and 8 sleepers headed in the right direction, all published this week at SportsRaid! ■

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