2017 NFL week 5 picks against the spread

A bunch of terrible games plus Packers-Cowboys and Chiefs-Texans

The bye weeks are here, and boy do they leave a wasteland in their wake. The Saints, Falcons, Broncos, and Redskins get the week off and leave us with one of the most unwatchable early slate of NFL games in memory. The more we watch this season, the less we seem to know, with Vegas setting a line at three points or less on 11 of the 14 games this week.

We’re rolling now with 10–6 our best week yet, and our best bets are 9–5 and have yet to have a losing week. With all the close lines this week, it’s a chance to jump on a team you really like or bet heavily against someone you think is overrated. So make some money early on the garbage games, then settle in late for wonderful matchups between the Packers and Cowboys late afternoon and Chiefs and Texans in the nightcap.

The Stay Aways

New York Giants -3 vs Los Angeles Chargers

It’s hilarious that these teams are 0–8 with losses by 2, 2, 2, 3, and 3. The Chargers could pretty easily be 3–1, and the Giants probably should’ve won on the road the last two weeks. Still, when their backs are up against the wall, both of these teams consistently find a way to lose. Can we just root for a tie? Cuz this game is like making out with your sister.

New York Jets PK at Cleveland

Remember when I wrote about what 0–2 teams could still sneak into the playoffs? I ranked the Jets second to last and talked myself into the Browns. Since then the Jets are 2–0, and the Browns have been dominated by the Colts and Bengals. Oops. And still Cleveland opened this game as a favorite somehow. Maybe watch New York and Cleveland play baseball instead.

Oakland -2.5 vs Baltimore

These teams started 2–0 and on track for the playoffs before losing four games by a combined score of 113 to 36. Life comes at you fast. Both offenses have gone MIA, and now Oakland has to live without Derek Carr again. The over/under for this game is 39.5. Which of these teams is scoring 20? Stay away from betting, and stay away from watching any of of these three. Watch baseball playoffs, World Cup qualifying, college football, hockey, NBA preseason, anything else really. Dealer’s choice.

Stick with Your Preseason Read

Tennessee -3 at Miami

Will Marcus Mariota play? Perhaps the better question is whether it will even matter. The Dolphins look every bit as bad as I expected, and they’re one garbage time play from being shut out in consecutive weeks by the vaunted Jets and Saints. Miami declined a bye week after its trip to London. Check out Baltimore and Jacksonville last week for how that tends to work out. They probably should’ve just stayed there.

Carolina +2.5 at Detroit

One of these teams will be 4–1 in pole position for the NFC 1-seed, but are you really sold on either team? The problem is you’re thinking of the wrong side of the ball. Both teams have been much better on defense than offense, and that could keep this one low scoring and tight. This is not the Carolina team I expected but I had them among the NFC favorites nonetheless, with Detroit on the other end. It’s still early enough to stick with the preseason read here and give the Panthers the benefit of the doubt.

Seattle +1 at Los Angeles Rams

The Rams have won three of four against Seattle and four of five against the Seahawks at home. On the one hand, that was with a better home crowd in St. Louis against a Seattle team that struggled flying east. On the other hand, these Rams might actually be good and they’re no longer coached by Jeff Fisher. Jared Goff and L.A. have lived a charmed life with the league’s #1 offense so far but Seattle is a different animal. Is Seattle really letting the Rams take a 2.5 game division lead? Don’t count on it. They’ll find a way.

They Don’t Know We *Know* They Know We Know!

Buffalo +3 at Cincinnati

This was the shocking line of the week, with the 1–3 Bengals actually giving points to the division-leading 3–1 Bills. Buffalo has only allowed one passing touchdown all season, and the Bengals still haven’t been able to run the ball. Cincinnati has one measly win against the Browns, and the Bills might actually be legit. They’re just better… unless, of course, they’re not.

Jacksonville +8.5 at Pittsburgh

Is Pittsburgh good? Is Jacksonville bad? Honestly, who knows at this point? Pittsburgh is allowing under 15ppg but has done it against Cleveland, Minnesota, Chicago, and Baltimore. Jacksonville’s defense might actually be better. These are the two best pass defenses in the league so far, allowing an average of 174 yards a game, so this one may be close and ugly. When the line’s this high and you’re not sure, just take the points.

Chicago +3.5 vs Minnesota (Monday)

It’s the unveiling of Mitchell Trubisky Chicago’s clamored for but won’t be watching against Cubs-Nationals NLDS Game 3. Minnesota’s bad injury luck continues — Peterson, Bridgewater, Bradford, and Cook knee injuries in the past year — and the Vikings have lost 14 of their last 16 trips to Chicago. The last time Minnesota won there by more than three, the quarterbacks were Daunte Culpepper and Cade McNown, and Trubisky was six. This feels like the perfect way for Minnesota’s season to fall off the rails for good. Then again, I’m 0–4 against the spread picking my Vikings, so you figure it out.

Now That’s What I Call Football!

Green Bay +2 at Dallas

If you aren’t in a coma from the early slog of games, the NFL gods reward us with two great ones late. Packers-Cowboys is a classic, and there should be plenty of points in this one. Dallas finally has their offense rolling but the defense has been terrible, and Aaron Rodgers should pick them apart. Rodgers has dominated Dallas of late, winning six of his last seven. Arlington offers no real home field advantage, so just pick the better team, and that looks like the Packers. It might just be whichever team has the ball last.

Houston +1 vs Kansas City

For once this doesn’t feel like the terrible AFC Wildcard game that kicks off NFL playoff opening Saturday. The Chiefs are the last unbeaten team in the league, and Houston hung 90 on the Patriots and Titans the last two weeks. Kansas City has struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks, and Deshaun Watson looks better every week. With two stout defenses, this may come down to a couple of key plays, and I’m banking on Watson making them in prime time like he usually does.

Week Five Best Bets

New England -4 at Tampa Bay (Thursday)

We lucked into one Thursday, thanks mostly to Tampa Folking it up. Jameis Winston just makes too many bad throws to pick him against the Patriots on a short week, but Tampa Bay probably should have had this one.

Indianapolis -1.5 vs San Francisco

It’s a battle of two teams that aren’t as bad as you think. San Francisco’s defense has held up pretty well, and Jacoby Brissett has given the Colts a spark and kept their season alive. This is a must win for Indy, who can bounce back to 2–3 with Andrew Luck just a game or two away. The home crowd will be buzzing as Manning’s jersey gets retired. They’ll also unveil Peyton’s statue… although we already saw that for a couple seasons in Denver.

Philadelphia -6 vs Arizona

Vegas continues to overrate the terrible Cardinals, so we’ll keep picking against them and enjoy our spoils. Arizona could easily be 0–4 if not for a couple ugly overtime wins against bad Colts and 49ers squads, and their offense is struggling mightily without David Johnson. The Eagles pass rush will give Arizona fits, and Carson Wentz should find plenty of room against a leaky Cardinals secondary. Philly should win by double digits.

Week 4 record: 10–6 Season record: 26–35–3 Best bets: 8–5 Locks: 1–0

If you enjoyed this piece, give it a few claps 👏 👏 so others see it too! Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports and humor. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.