One Last Cubs Deep Dive as We Prepare to Defend the Title

A deep dive through the numbers as we settle in for a long October

Well, we made it. Both literally and figuratively, we made it through this long 162-game slog of a season and came out right where we expected to all along — in the playoffs with a chance to defend our world title just like we did the last time we won it.

It’s been an up and down Chicago Cubs season to say the least, but a huge second half surge has left the team riding high entering a wide open NL playoffs with the dreaded five-game NLDS against the Washington Nationals, hopefully followed by an NLCS against some NL West foe. Unlike last year, the Cubs won’t have home field advantage in any series, but this team is battle tested and ready to win.

So with the real season finally set to start, let’s take one last look back at the season, with a special look at the season’s final month, and see where everyone came on this long journey together.

AROUND THE INFIELD

Willson Contreras

Is Contreras a top five catcher already? It’s hard to come up with five guys better than him. He finished third in the majors among catchers with 3.9 WAR, and that was in 117 games. Willson has struggled coming back from injury. He’s hitting .289 but the power is MIA with a solitary double his only extra base hit in 38 at bats. The good news is he may have taken a huge step forward seeing pitches as a hitter. Since returning from the DL, his walk rate has spiked from 9 to 24% with his strikeouts dropping from 27 to 18%. That’s a great sign going forward, but we really need that third power bat in the middle of the lineups to make a run.

Anthony Rizzo

Rizzo finished the year with more walks than strikeouts for the first time ever. He finished 2017 with career high walks, OBP, runs, homers, and RBIs, and that crappy .194 May feels like forever ago. That early miserable BABIP evened out with a .313 second half, though Rizzo is still hitting a worrying .228 on the road with a .213 BABIP for the season. Rizzo ignited the Cubs run in August as Chicago pulled out ahead. Now it’s time for him to be the veteran in this year’s playoff run.

Javy Baez

Baez may have somehow been the bedrock of the Cubs 2017 campaign, adding 23 homers and 75 RBIs to his steady average and speed, and making a big play or two every night that ignites the team. He filled in admirably for Addy during his injury recovery, and it seems like that sparked Javy’s own defensive renaissance the second half in the numbers. The strikeouts are still way too high at 31% and he drew only 15 non-intentional walks all season. Everyone in the league knows that down and away 0–2 pitch is coming at this point, and with everyone finally healthy, he’s going to have to earn playoff at bats.

Addison Russell

After all that, Russell finished right at his career .239 batting average and saw his power bounce back to almost last year’s pace, though the counting numbers were not kind at 110 games. Russell has struggled to get it going since coming off the DL, hitting just .212 with a .722 OPS. He didn’t exactly have a future MVP year on or off the field in 2017, and it’ll be interesting to see how confident Maddon is in him this postseason.

Kris Bryant

Hey, remember when KB was struggling and not an All Star? He finished the year top five in National League WAR and is going to be on a lot of NL MVP ballots for his third straight year (you know, all of his big league years). Bryant dropped his strikeout rate to a career low 23% with a career high average and OPS, both of which led the team. He carried the Cubs across the finish line in September, hitting .329 with four homers and a couple game-changing season-saving plays. More of that in October, please.

THE OUTFIELDERS

Kyle Schwarber

Schwarber finished the season with 30 home runs, second on the team ahead of Kris Bryant. Only two other players in the majors hit as many homers as him in as few at bats. He hit .253 in the second half with an .894 OPS and looks like he is starting to figure it out, though all but three of his homers have come against righties so expect a heavy playoff platoon. Schwarber has seen his BABIP rebound to normal levels in the second half. That’s pushed his average in the right direction, and the power has never gone anywhere. At the end of the day, the dude played passable defense and hit 30 homers in his first full season in the majors while coming off a major knee injury. Not too shabby. His numbers have gotten better four straight months now. If that holds true into October, he might well add to his legend.

John Jay

Jay has been just what the Cubs needed this season, a consistent near-.300 bat that can play any outfield spot and a guy that’s fit comfortably enough into Chicago’s vacant leadoff spot as the season has gone on. He continues to see a lot of pitches, and his steady veteran presence could be just what the team needs at the top of the lineup.

Albert Almora Jr.

Almora ended up with the best Cubs batting average of any player with 50+ at bats at .298. He’s been tearing the cover off the ball over the last month with an even 1.000 OPS and eight extra base hits in 48 at bats, though he’s only played seven full games in that run. His splits still heavily favor him at home and versus lefties, but that gets a little more valuable in the playoffs and makes him a valuable bench play with his glove and lefty platoon potential.

Jason Heyward

As we’ve said all year, Heyward finished the year right around his career averages. That early-career power is long gone, but .259 and 11 HR is going to be fine if he remains as valuable in the field and clubhouse. Heyward improved his eye this year to a career low 16% strikeout rate, and his numbers ticked up a bit in the second half with his best month of the year in September. He may only be marginally better than last season, but he’s marginally better in a lot of areas and that’s enough.

THE SWISS ARMY KNIVES

Ian Happ

Happ finished the year hitting .253 with 24 HR, numbers only 20 others in baseball history have hit as a rookie. Happ just basically equaled Kris Bryant’s rookie season, and he did it in only two-thirds of the season. He’d be a runaway Rookie of the Year in a world without Cody Bellinger. There’s been no rookie wall either, as Happ has gotten better in the second half. The one thing Happ hasn’t been good at is coming off the bench, hitting .200 with only one homer in 26 appearances. That presents an October conundrum — start the rookie or keep his powerful bat for a key spot late in the game? Happ is the best hitting outfielder on the team, so here’s guessing Maddon will find a way to get him into the lineup.

Ben Zobrist

Zobrist finished the season below the Mendoza line against lefties and on the road, but he bounced back to hit .249 in the second half and had a strong August before fading again in September. He might not be healthy, or he might just have lost a step to age that he won’t get back. Zobrist never got it going in 2017, and his biggest value at this point is probably his versatility off the bench that gives Joe a ton of options late in games.

THE PITCHING STAFF

Jon Lester

Lester continues to be a mixed bag. In six September starts, he gave up four runs combined in four of them, then four and seven in the other two. His walk rate is up, especially late in the season, and he hasn’t pitched into the seventh inning in two months. But he’s still lights out against lefties with an 11.6 K/BB ratio and a .205 batting average allowed, and that makes him incredibly important against the powerful lefties in the Washington and Los Angeles lineups. He’s been better against the Nats than almost any team in his career.

Jake Arrieta

Arrieta led the Cubs with 14 wins, and he was far better in the second half with his ERA dropping from 4.35 to 2.28. And that’s all fine in good, but that was in August before Jake’s stint on the DL, and now we have no idea what pitcher we’ve got. He pitched only 10.1 innings in September with 15 hits and nine runs allowed, a terrible 6.10 ERA. He skipped his last start and looks like a possible Game 3 or 4 starter, and he’s a complete wildcard at this point. This is almost certainly it for Jake in a Cubs uniform. Let’s hope he goes out in style.

Jose Quintana

Quintana finished the season with a career high strikeout total and a career low in hits allowed, but he also allowed the most walks, runs, and homers of his career. He rebounded from a poor August with a sparkling 2.51 ERA in an unbeaten September. He walked only four men in five starts with just one home run allowed, and he continues to dominate lefty batters. Could Quintana be a surprise X factor in October and finally win us over?

Kyle Hendricks

The Professor has been lights out since returning from a month on the DL, with a 3.8 K/BB ratio and a dominant 2.19 ERA line. Those numbers should be surprising, but they’re basically right in line with his numbers from all of 2016 when Hendricks led the league in ERA so there’s good reason to believe it’s not a fluke. Like Quintana, his walks are down in October after a September spike. Last year Cubs fans didn’t even know if Hendricks should be the fifth starter — now many are clamoring for him to start the playoff opener.

John Lackey

Thank you for your service. Now go get a haircut.

Bullpen

The bullpen is small sample size theater as always, but Wade Davis, Brian Duensing, Carl Edwards, and Pedro Strop have been spectacular all season. Mike Montgomery has been really valuable in long relief, and he’s a great option to bring out of the pen in case someone like Lester or Arrieta struggles early some game. It’s hard to know what to expect from Hector Rondon or most of the other relievers at this point, but we’ll see what Joe thinks when he selects the playoff roster. Lackey and Rondon will surely be on the team, plus another two or three options, but we know who will be out there when it matters.

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