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ock"> <a href="https://the-cauldron.com/waiting-for-the-other-shoe-to-drop-f271fe74ca15"> <div> <div> <h2>Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop — A Cubs Life</h2> <div><h3>On the Cubs and Vikings and brokenheartedness and hope…</h3></div> <div><p>the-cauldron.com</p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/1*ZDyxN7SjqdQoyoC-UbDolg.jpeg)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><figure id="920b"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*j_6EqfBLNsMmhdSp_Mf4Mg.jpeg"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><h1 id="7a2f">OUTFIELD AND UTILITY GUYS</h1><h2 id="e06d">Kyle Schwarber</h2><p id="a687">Sound the alarm, Schwarber is hitting over .200! Fine, just .201 but still… baby steps. He’s been better this past month, but better is still relative. The homers are still there, as they always are, but he’s still whiffing more than once a game and has become a three true outcomes guy. Forty of his 84 plate appearances this month have ended in a homer (6), walk (9), or strikeout (25). His average during that span is all the way up to .233, which is not exactly something to call home about, but it’s a heck of a lot better than Aaron Judge’s .171, 35 strikeouts, and only two home runs over the same stretch.</p><h2 id="22ad">Jason Heyward</h2><p id="fb3c">Heyward’s season-long uptick in patience started to pay off over the past month as he struck out just nine times in 72 at-bats, fewest among all Cubs regulars, and as many times as he walked. He is starting to see his hits fall in with a .292 average over the past month but has becomes a singles only hitter with just two extra-base hits in the past month. That’s a pretty rough .347 slugging percentage, so thank God for defense and rain delay speeches.</p><h2 id="4f59">Albert Almora Jr.</h2><p id="ee93">Almora continues to play very well, just not very often. He’s only played most or all of the game in nine of the last 27 games despite continuing to swing a hot bat, with .367 in that stretch. Almora has become a real question in the Cubs lineup. Is he continuing to play well because Maddon is limiting him to the right matchups and keeping him fresh, or is his strong play a sign that he should get more and more playing time as the team moves forward? Either way, Almora could be the long-term answer in center field.</p><div id="49ee" class="link-block"> <a href="https://readmedium.com/checking-in-on-the-cubs-through-the-second-trimester-d43579f1b19c"> <div> <div> <h2>Checking in on the Cubs through the Second Trimester</h2> <div><h3>A deep dive through the numbers as we hit the home stretch </h3></div> <div><p>Wrigley Rapport</p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/1*qYTTPqnkT0CBWd5FbaBnuA.jpeg)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><h2 id="59ee">Ben Zobrist</h2><p id="4cc6">Zobrist has finally gotten a little more consistent playing time over the last month with all the injuries, but even the extra time in the lineup still hasn’t gotten him going much. The hits still aren’t coming too often (.240 average this month) but it’s a good sign that the power is starting to return. BenZo has four doubles, a triple, and two homers in his past 18 hits. That’s a nudge in the right direction but, with so many other bats blazing, it sure looks like Zobrist could be the odd man out once all the injured guys return.</p><h2 id="b3c5">Ian Happ</h2><p id="0017">A month ago, it sure looked like Happ had hit the rookie wall. He’d hit just .196 with three extra-base hits in 58 plate appearances over the previous month. He’s bounced back quite well since with a .288 average over the past month and six home runs with plenty of power. The strikeouts are still piling up for Happ at almost 39% in the last month, though he’s starting to draw more walks too. Happ has played a lot of second base in August with Baez playing short and he’s done so without an error. He’s going to be a real wildcard for Maddon in October.</p><h2 id="828b">John Jay</h2><p id="fe66">Jay is playing almost twice as much as Almora and didn’t have the most spectacular month, mostly more of the same with a bit of a down tick in batting average (.269), but he looks like the best answer to Chicago’s lead-off struggles this season. He’s only hitting .252 with a .320 OBP there, not exactly making any of us forget Dexter Fowler, but he looks like the best answer the Cubs are going to have there in 2017.</p><h2 id="0943">Alex Avila</h2><p id="e588">Well Avila has certainly been all Cubs fans could have hoped for. He’s already had three homers and 15 RBI in his one month as a Cub, continuing to show that 5% home run burst he was flashing for Detroit. Avila is batting .258 in Chicago with a 109 OPS+ continuing what might have been an All-Star season, and his wildly lucky BABIP streak continues with his fourth month over .400 this season. Like just about everyone else on the roster, Avila is striking out like a madman with a 42% K rate, though his walks are up too at 15%. He looks like a more than capable spot starter who can keep Contreras rested and keep his bat in the lineup at the same time.</p><div id="ef79" class="link-block"> <a href="https://readmedium.com/the-cub-we-forgot-to-celebrate-8528bfdd04dc"> <div> <div>

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   <h2>The Cub We Forgot to Celebrate</h2>
            <div><h3>Remembering the tragic rise and fall of Starlin Castro </h3></div>
            <div><p>medium.com</p></div>
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    </div><figure id="e830"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*j_6EqfBLNsMmhdSp_Mf4Mg.jpeg"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><h1 id="892a">THE PITCHING STAFF</h1><h2 id="d934">Jon Lester</h2><p id="4b70">Lester is back! Or is he? Lester returned from two missed starts on the DL with fatigue in his throwing arm and showed plenty of rust Saturday. He allowed eight hits and four runs across five innings, including a season-high three home runs. The Cubs won a 14–12 shootout anyway, but let’s be glad we have another month to get Lester back into top form before the games really matter. He’s had some bad luck with over .400 BABIP his last few starts, but his strikeout rate had been trending up before the injury. Let’s hope some time resting the arm was what was needed to get him ready for October.</p><h2 id="7f23">Jake Arrieta</h2><p id="2551">That disastrous start in Washington with six runs and seven steals allowed in four innings feels like forever ago. Since that game, Jake’s ERA has dropped in 11 straight starts, all the way down to 3.36. He’s only allowed two steals since that fateful Montero start. Arrieta has allowed two earned runs or less in nine straight starts, with a sparkling 1.59 ERA and just a .189 batting average allowed during that span. He is absolutely dealing. The hits are back down, the homers are down, and about the only complaint now is that we consistently get about six innings and out. But the way he’s pitching now, his next start in Washington might be for Game 1 of the NLDS.</p><h2 id="add4">Jose Quintana</h2><p id="c189">Quintana’s season as a Cub has continued at much the same rate as across town with the White Sox, and that’s not a great thing. His 4.50 ERA as a Cub matches the 4.49 Sox rate, and he’s still allowing a career-high home run rate. But it looks like Chris Bosio is already having an impact as Quintana’s hit and strikeout rates are the best of his career during these two months as a Cub, at 7.8 and 10.7 per nine innings respectively.</p><p id="bb14">The problem is Quintana has really only had one great start, his first one in Baltimore. He’s allowed three or more runs in five of eight starts since with a pair of ugly six-run games. There’s not really any particular signs of bad luck. Quintana is throwing a ton of pitches to rack up those strikeouts, and the hits in between are hard. One possible silver lining? August is the worst month of Quintana’s career, so hopefully the best is yet to come.</p><h2 id="d88a">Kyle Hendricks</h2><p id="4b26">Like Arrieta, Kyle’s slow start is beginning to feel like a long time ago. He’s allowed only eight runs in five starts over the last month, with a 2.08 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 30.1 innings pitched. Hendricks still isn’t quite hitting the strike zone like he did last year with just 65% of his pitches strikes, and his walk rate has jumped to 3.6 per nine innings during this stretch. That’s not quite the control we hope for, but as long as it comes with everything else, it’ll do just fine. That’s one heck of a fourth pitcher to roll out there.</p><h2 id="fd0b">John Lackey</h2><p id="f9ef">Lackey threw a gem with seven shutout innings against the Braves, but he continues to be something of a grab bag after a strong July matching his usual best month of his career. Lackey has a 4.45 ERA over his last five starts and is basically good for chewing up five innings with a strikeout an inning, a home run somewhere along the way, and a random die roll of runs. That’s not great, but his job at this point is to use up 25 more innings over five more starts and then root on the team from the bench in October. He’ll do.</p><h2 id="9300">The Bullpen</h2><p id="221e">The bullpen isn’t as dominant as it once was, but they already did their job this season, keeping the Cubs around while the starters found their groove and the hitters got the bats heating up. Wade Davis is still perfect as the closer, and Brian Duensing and Mike Montgomery continue to be the two unsung heroes for the Cubs this season doing a little bit of everything as needed. The 8th inning has become a bit of a problem of late, but Carl Edwards and Pedro Strop still look pretty reliable there. The big disappointment of late has been newcomer Justin Wilson. His 5.56 ERA in 14 Cubs appearances has been ugly, and his 11 walks in 11.1 innings has been even worse. If he can’t get his 1.941 WHIP down in the next month, he may not even make the postseason roster.</p><figure id="4890"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*ZC0bHyx_PgAfjNtQ4apYOA.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure id="a46b"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*[email protected]"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><p id="6626"><i>If you enjoyed this, please give it a bunch of claps so others can too. Follow Brandon <a href="https://upscri.be/6e365d/">on Medium</a> or <a href="https://twitter.com/wheatonbrando">@wheatonbrando</a> for more sports, humor, pop culture, &amp; life musings. Visit Brandon’s <a href="https://readmedium.com/brandon-anderson-writing-archives-6b3ee1a29301#.6cteu050v">writing archives here</a>. Thanks to <a href="undefined">Baseball Reference</a>.</i></p></article></body>

One Final Cubs Check-In with Only a Month to Go

A deep dive through the numbers as we head toward the playoffs

The Chicago Cubs have played 135 games (through Saturday). That’s exactly five-sixths of the way through the season and just leaves one final set of 27 games before the Cubbies head to the playoffs. And for the first time this season, we can say that with some amount of verisimilitude rather than with a hopeful twinkle in our eyes. The playoffs are happening, and the Cubs will almost certainly be part of them.

A sixth straight win Saturday left the Cubs 75–60 with an ever growing National League Central lead. The Milwaukee Brewers are now 4.5 games back while the St. Louis Cardinals are seven behind. Both are closer to the second wildcard spot now than catching Chicago. All of that puts the Cubs at over 96% likelihood to win the division and almost 99% to make the playoffs.

The odds of Chicago missing the playoffs are now down to about 1 in 72. Go grab a pair of dice and a coin, and give them all a flip. If you manage to roll a pair of sixes and a tails, the Cubs miss the playoffs — any other combination of die rolls and coin flips and the Cubbies are in.

FanGraphs has the Cubs as the favorite in a likely NLDS series against Washington and gives Chicago a 30% chance of making the World Series and a 1-in-7 shot at winning it all again. That gives Chicago the third best odds of any team in baseball (behind the Dodgers and Astros), despite the fact that the Cubs would probably be on the road all postseason.

The Cubs are back, and #WeAreGood again. After Saturday’s 14-run outburst, Chicago has scored the fourth best offense in the league at 5.12 runs per game, trailing only the Astros, Nationals, and Yankees. The Cubs have gone 18–9 this half-trimester with 191 runs scored. That’s a whopping 7.1 runs per game and includes 12 games of 7+ runs and five with 13+, without a single time being shut out.

The Cubs are rounding into form and ready for October. Let’s go around the roster one final time for the season and see where everyone stands…

AROUND THE INFIELD

Willson Contreras

Contreras has been out almost a month, so there’s no real update since last time except that he’s still third on the team in WAR, behind only Bryant and Rizzo. Avila has more than filled in for Contreras, and our only real concern was that Willson might burn out with all the work he was getting. Problem solved. He should be back in a week or two and fresh for the playoffs.

Anthony Rizzo

Rizzo has been on fire, tearing the cover off the ball with a .379 average and a .455 OBP over this past month. He’s clocking in at a 1.118 OPS putting up MVP numbers right now and firing on all cylinders. During this last half-trimester, Rizzo has more extra-base hits (16) than he does strikeouts (14). He actually has more than twice as many RBI (30) as strikeouts. That’s a hitter that has found his zone, set up camp, and made is his baby. Remember Rizzo’s early season struggles? He’s now at a career-best OPS and slugging, one away from tying his career high in homers, and already in triple digit RBI.

Javy Baez

Nothing about Javy’s numbers stand out much over the past month. He’s hitting .278 and still striking out plenty, everything in line with the rest of his season numbers. He’s added six more home runs and is up to 21 now on the season, one of six Cubs with 20+. But it feels like the old Javy is back again, the one that sparkles in the field and makes a game-changing play just about every night. He’s filled in spectacularly at shortstop with Russell sidelined.

Addison Russell

Russell hasn’t played since August 2, so there’s no real update since the last one. A recent setback means Addy may be out another three weeks, basically putting him back just in time for the playoffs. Let’s hope he does get to play that final week of the season just to shake the rust off and also to give Javy Baez a much needed break. Despite his month-long injury absence, Russell is still top five on the Cubs in WAR.

Kris Bryant

Bryant’s eye continues to improve. He’s knocked his strikeout rate down to 20% this month and has walked almost as many times (16) as striking out (17). All that discipline means pitchers are being forced to give Bryant something to go after, and he’s been coming through with a .353 average and 13 extra-base hits in his last 30 so the power is trending back up too. The Cubs have finally looked like the old Cubs right during the same stretch that Bryzzo finally started playing like Bryzzo again. Coincidence? Probably not.

Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop — A Cubs Life

On the Cubs and Vikings and brokenheartedness and hope…

the-cauldron.com

OUTFIELD AND UTILITY GUYS

Kyle Schwarber

Sound the alarm, Schwarber is hitting over .200! Fine, just .201 but still… baby steps. He’s been better this past month, but better is still relative. The homers are still there, as they always are, but he’s still whiffing more than once a game and has become a three true outcomes guy. Forty of his 84 plate appearances this month have ended in a homer (6), walk (9), or strikeout (25). His average during that span is all the way up to .233, which is not exactly something to call home about, but it’s a heck of a lot better than Aaron Judge’s .171, 35 strikeouts, and only two home runs over the same stretch.

Jason Heyward

Heyward’s season-long uptick in patience started to pay off over the past month as he struck out just nine times in 72 at-bats, fewest among all Cubs regulars, and as many times as he walked. He is starting to see his hits fall in with a .292 average over the past month but has becomes a singles only hitter with just two extra-base hits in the past month. That’s a pretty rough .347 slugging percentage, so thank God for defense and rain delay speeches.

Albert Almora Jr.

Almora continues to play very well, just not very often. He’s only played most or all of the game in nine of the last 27 games despite continuing to swing a hot bat, with .367 in that stretch. Almora has become a real question in the Cubs lineup. Is he continuing to play well because Maddon is limiting him to the right matchups and keeping him fresh, or is his strong play a sign that he should get more and more playing time as the team moves forward? Either way, Almora could be the long-term answer in center field.

Checking in on the Cubs through the Second Trimester

A deep dive through the numbers as we hit the home stretch

Wrigley Rapport

Ben Zobrist

Zobrist has finally gotten a little more consistent playing time over the last month with all the injuries, but even the extra time in the lineup still hasn’t gotten him going much. The hits still aren’t coming too often (.240 average this month) but it’s a good sign that the power is starting to return. BenZo has four doubles, a triple, and two homers in his past 18 hits. That’s a nudge in the right direction but, with so many other bats blazing, it sure looks like Zobrist could be the odd man out once all the injured guys return.

Ian Happ

A month ago, it sure looked like Happ had hit the rookie wall. He’d hit just .196 with three extra-base hits in 58 plate appearances over the previous month. He’s bounced back quite well since with a .288 average over the past month and six home runs with plenty of power. The strikeouts are still piling up for Happ at almost 39% in the last month, though he’s starting to draw more walks too. Happ has played a lot of second base in August with Baez playing short and he’s done so without an error. He’s going to be a real wildcard for Maddon in October.

John Jay

Jay is playing almost twice as much as Almora and didn’t have the most spectacular month, mostly more of the same with a bit of a down tick in batting average (.269), but he looks like the best answer to Chicago’s lead-off struggles this season. He’s only hitting .252 with a .320 OBP there, not exactly making any of us forget Dexter Fowler, but he looks like the best answer the Cubs are going to have there in 2017.

Alex Avila

Well Avila has certainly been all Cubs fans could have hoped for. He’s already had three homers and 15 RBI in his one month as a Cub, continuing to show that 5% home run burst he was flashing for Detroit. Avila is batting .258 in Chicago with a 109 OPS+ continuing what might have been an All-Star season, and his wildly lucky BABIP streak continues with his fourth month over .400 this season. Like just about everyone else on the roster, Avila is striking out like a madman with a 42% K rate, though his walks are up too at 15%. He looks like a more than capable spot starter who can keep Contreras rested and keep his bat in the lineup at the same time.

The Cub We Forgot to Celebrate

Remembering the tragic rise and fall of Starlin Castro

medium.com

THE PITCHING STAFF

Jon Lester

Lester is back! Or is he? Lester returned from two missed starts on the DL with fatigue in his throwing arm and showed plenty of rust Saturday. He allowed eight hits and four runs across five innings, including a season-high three home runs. The Cubs won a 14–12 shootout anyway, but let’s be glad we have another month to get Lester back into top form before the games really matter. He’s had some bad luck with over .400 BABIP his last few starts, but his strikeout rate had been trending up before the injury. Let’s hope some time resting the arm was what was needed to get him ready for October.

Jake Arrieta

That disastrous start in Washington with six runs and seven steals allowed in four innings feels like forever ago. Since that game, Jake’s ERA has dropped in 11 straight starts, all the way down to 3.36. He’s only allowed two steals since that fateful Montero start. Arrieta has allowed two earned runs or less in nine straight starts, with a sparkling 1.59 ERA and just a .189 batting average allowed during that span. He is absolutely dealing. The hits are back down, the homers are down, and about the only complaint now is that we consistently get about six innings and out. But the way he’s pitching now, his next start in Washington might be for Game 1 of the NLDS.

Jose Quintana

Quintana’s season as a Cub has continued at much the same rate as across town with the White Sox, and that’s not a great thing. His 4.50 ERA as a Cub matches the 4.49 Sox rate, and he’s still allowing a career-high home run rate. But it looks like Chris Bosio is already having an impact as Quintana’s hit and strikeout rates are the best of his career during these two months as a Cub, at 7.8 and 10.7 per nine innings respectively.

The problem is Quintana has really only had one great start, his first one in Baltimore. He’s allowed three or more runs in five of eight starts since with a pair of ugly six-run games. There’s not really any particular signs of bad luck. Quintana is throwing a ton of pitches to rack up those strikeouts, and the hits in between are hard. One possible silver lining? August is the worst month of Quintana’s career, so hopefully the best is yet to come.

Kyle Hendricks

Like Arrieta, Kyle’s slow start is beginning to feel like a long time ago. He’s allowed only eight runs in five starts over the last month, with a 2.08 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 30.1 innings pitched. Hendricks still isn’t quite hitting the strike zone like he did last year with just 65% of his pitches strikes, and his walk rate has jumped to 3.6 per nine innings during this stretch. That’s not quite the control we hope for, but as long as it comes with everything else, it’ll do just fine. That’s one heck of a fourth pitcher to roll out there.

John Lackey

Lackey threw a gem with seven shutout innings against the Braves, but he continues to be something of a grab bag after a strong July matching his usual best month of his career. Lackey has a 4.45 ERA over his last five starts and is basically good for chewing up five innings with a strikeout an inning, a home run somewhere along the way, and a random die roll of runs. That’s not great, but his job at this point is to use up 25 more innings over five more starts and then root on the team from the bench in October. He’ll do.

The Bullpen

The bullpen isn’t as dominant as it once was, but they already did their job this season, keeping the Cubs around while the starters found their groove and the hitters got the bats heating up. Wade Davis is still perfect as the closer, and Brian Duensing and Mike Montgomery continue to be the two unsung heroes for the Cubs this season doing a little bit of everything as needed. The 8th inning has become a bit of a problem of late, but Carl Edwards and Pedro Strop still look pretty reliable there. The big disappointment of late has been newcomer Justin Wilson. His 5.56 ERA in 14 Cubs appearances has been ugly, and his 11 walks in 11.1 innings has been even worse. If he can’t get his 1.941 WHIP down in the next month, he may not even make the postseason roster.

If you enjoyed this, please give it a bunch of claps so others can too. Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, humor, pop culture, & life musings. Visit Brandon’s writing archives here. Thanks to Baseball Reference.