Arms Deals & Defense Cooperation During Russia-Ukraine War Reveal A Critical Shift In The Black Sea

There’s a critical shift happening in Eastern Europe. Romania and Bulgaria are advancing their capabilities as NATO partners. On the Black Sea, the two countries already serve as key links for defense and security cooperation with other NATO members. Now, it appears that the two countries are expanding on their capabilities in arms deals and defense cooperation as a response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Here are some of the latest agreements:

• Bulgaria and Poland’s Wojskowe Zaklady Lotnicze signed an overhaul agreement of six MIG-29 jet engines to improve operational capabilities with the F-16 Block 70 combat platform.
• Romania announced plans to build a Patriot missile production plant in cooperation with American Raytheon to produce Skyceptor interceptor missiles for the Patriot SAM program.

In fact, Bulgaria already announced a significant weapons deal with Ukraine on July 22 after he newly-formed Bulgarian parliament approved to send weapons to Ukraine for the first time. This is also a significant issues in the country’s domestic politics, since there are pro-Russian political parties in Sofia.

Under Rumen Radev, Bulgaria had refused to be one of the contributing NATO members in the cause of supporting Ukraine to defend itself against the Russian Federation.

But the newly formed government under the leadership of Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov in Sofia appears to be more “pro-Western” on the issue of Ukraine and Russia.

Following the announcement to send weapons to Ukraine, the Bulgarian Parliament said: “This equipment is no longer necessary for the needs of Bulgaria, and it can be of serious support to Ukraine in its battle to preserve the country’s independence and territorial integrity after the unjustified and unprovoked Russian aggression.” AP News

Of course what everyone is paying attention to right now are the elevated attacks from both sides on the Russian and Ukrainian mainlands. The latest attacks have been ongoing since the Black Sea Grain Initiative — or Black Sea Grain Deal depending on where you are reading about it — have stumbled into the land of misopportunities for peace.

Here’s a condensed version of some of the attacks from Russia and Ukraine after the Black Sea Grain Deal’s failure:

• July 25 — Russia launches drones striking on Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv
• July 24 — Ukraine claims done attack on Russia’s capital Moscow and Crimea
• July 20 — In an attempt to retake Bakhmut, Ukraine seeks to capture previously-claimed areas by pro-Russian Wagner Group
• July 19 — After announcing the termination of the Black Sea Grain Deal, Russia launches massive attacks on Ukraine’s Black Sea port

What this esclation of attacks symbolize do not live up to how these events are affecting Russian and Ukrainian people and interests. Though from the perspective of the entire escalation, this puts geopolitical risk on a alarmingly high alert, as the Black Sea Grain Initiative was the only diplomatic tool in place to halt such large-scale attacks from both sides.

What follows in the aftermath of these latest attacks raises the level of uncertainty in the maritime domain of the Black Sea. This goes for all European governments, NATO members and private business interests operating in the European region. Ukraine is attempting to make a new corridor, along with the help of other countries on the Black Sea, to allow foreign ships a safe passage out of Ukrainian ports.

The current situation in the Black Sea is abysmal for global markets. It is also causing more countries to invest in advanced warfare tech. For instance, USA- based Palantir has been supplying some of Ukraine’s most advanced software capabilities with the intent to gather evidence for the prosecution of Russia’s alleged war crimes.

What exactly is Palantir supplying Ukraine? Well, only the most advanced modern technologies in today’s changing landscape of international conflict, such as satellite imagery and IT solutions. Satelittle imagery has been a controversial topic in its own right, as the technology has been used to investigate China for its alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang.

As for the war in Ukraine, Andriy Kostin, the prosecutor general for Ukraine, said: “Analyzing this amount of evidence would be virtually impossible without modern IT solutions.”

While modern IT has become crucial to the international judiciary process, and apparently for waging war, there are still many hurdles to overcome for the ICC’s case against president Putin.

Thus, it is likely that more advanced technologies will be employed around the Black Sea for military and humanitarian purposes.

Several companies and non-profit foundations are already serving Ukraine for humanitarian reasons. For example, one of the biggest players in the area of global food security is Howard Buffet, Chairman and and CEO of The Howard G. Buffet Foundation.

Howard Buffet spoke to Bloomberg on Wall Street Week about how the company’s working on the frontlines of Ukraine’s farming industry, in addition to his meetings with Ukrainian people and President Zelensky.

When asked about the Black Sea Grain Deal, he said: “If you did not have the Black Sea Grain Initiative still operating, which it’s sluggish, but it’s operating, you’d see a lot bigger problems than what we’re seeing today.”

He quickly shifted the discussion to how one aspect of the war itself is the greatest risk to rebuilding Ukraine’s agriculture production: land mines. Forbes published a report about the land mines why they are threatening the philanthropy work being carried out in the country by Buffet’s foundation.

Buffet also mentions how much damage has been done to Ukraine’s agriculture industry by shelling, which is one of the factors that must be taken into consideration when investing in Ukraine’s rebuilding.

With enhanced NATO defense and security cooperation, Romania and Bulgaria have a greater national intersest in protecting the security of Ukraine. Luckily, the U.S. government got prepared before Russia’s invasion. On October 18, 2021, a security pact was signed between U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Georgia’s Defense Minister Juansher Burchladze, in response to Russia’s expansion in the Black Sea.

The meeting came after the Biden Administration approved foreign military sales (FMS) to Georgia worth $30 million, including Javelin anti-tank missiles and launchers. As the US had already been providing military assistance to Ukraine, the FMS to these countries proves that the United States was taking the Russian threat to Eastern Europe very seriously.

Military assistance might not be enough to deter Russia’s actions in the future. That’s why it has been the Biden Administration’s strategy to compel Russia by both military and economic means — a combination of military assistance to Russia’s neighbors, as well as forcefully applying economic sanctions on Russian individuals, entities and business sectors. The G7 also implemented a price cap on Russia’s energy exports which have had limited success so far.

EU officials have called Russia’s demands for Ukraine to “demilitarize” unreasonable and that Ukraine needed more military assistance to stop the Russian invasion. At the same time, analysts have argued that a “proxy way” is being initiated by countries outside of Ukraine in response to Russia’s so-called “special military operation.”

Proxy wars have been defined as a way to de-escalate conflict and increase leverage over the disadvantaged country in a conflict. In this case, Ukraine is the country seeking leverage at the negotiating table with Russia. In fact, former CIA director Leon Panetta is confident that this is a proxy war between USA and Russia, “[USA] are engaged in a conflict here. It’s a proxy war with Russia.”

George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures claims that Russia is likely to expand on its efforts to divide NATO countries in the Black Sea on a settlement for peace between Russia and Ukraine. I offer that this appears to be less likely in light of current events. Bulgaria and Romania are the two strongest links to Black Sea security in Eastern Europe. A critical shift in the Black Sea is underway: militarization and re-building programs for Ukraine are all focused on the maritime domain.

If you want to know more about the relevant events in the Russia-Ukraine war, follow the publication Areas & Producers. See some of the recent content from The Weekend Brief (TWB) newsletter below:

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