Areas: Bulgaria Sends Weapons To Ukraine & Black Sea Grain Initiative Targets Central & Eastern Europe’s Strength To Defend Grain Exports
I had to dig for this one: the newly-formed Bulgarian parliament approved to send weapons to Ukraine on 22 July 2022.
In the fray of online narratives about the war in Ukraine, and all the side-show theatrics of political wrangling, it would have been very difficult to find this information about the latest NATO-member to send arms supplies to Ukraine. Under Rumen Radev, Bulgaria had refused to be one of the contributing NATO members in the cause of supporting Ukraine to defend itself against the Russian Federation.
But the newly formed government under the leadership of Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov in Sofia appears to be more “pro-Western” on the issue of Ukraine and Russia.
Following the announcement to send weapons to Ukraine, the Bulgarian Parliament said: “This equipment is no longer necessary for the needs of Bulgaria, and it can be of serious support to Ukraine in its battle to preserve the country’s independence and territorial integrity after the unjustified and unprovoked Russian aggression.” AP News
Of course what everyone is paying attention to right now are the elevated attacks from both sides on the Russian and Ukrainian mainlands. The latest attacks have been ongoing since the Black Sea Grain Initiative — or Black Sea Grain Deal depending on where you are reading about it — have stumbled into the land of misopportunities.
Here’s a condensed version of some of the latest attacks on Russia and Ukraine:
- July 25 — Russia launches drones striking on Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv
- July 24 — Ukraine claims done attack on Russia’s capital Moscow and Crimea
- July 20 — In an attempt to retake Bakhmut, Ukraine seeks to capture previously-claimed areas by pro-Russian Wagner Group
- July 19 — After announcing the termination of the Black Sea Grain Deal, Russia launches massive attacks on Ukraine’s Black Sea port
What this esclation of attacks symbolize do not live up to how these events are affecting Russian and Ukrainian people and interests. Though from the perspective of the entire escalation, this puts geopolitical risk on a alarmingly high alert, as the Black Sea Grain Initiative was the only diplomatic tool in place to halt such large-scale attacks by Russia.
What follows in the aftermath of these latest attacks raises the level of uncertainty more than ever before. This goes for all European governments, NATO members and private business interests operating in the region.
And to get the full picture of this geopolitical risk scenario, it’s vital to look at what’s happening across other parts of Central and Eastern Europe…
Before diving into the Black Sea Grain Deal it’s important to know the latest updates on the important NATO Summit being held in Vilnius, Lithuania.
While ongoing talks over Sweden’s membership to NATO have concerned Turkey and other members since last year’s NATO Summit in Madrid, Spain, this year’s main focus is understandably on Ukraine’s future in the NATO alliance. According to reports and interviews by CNBC, Lithuanian’s president Gitanas Nauseda referred to Ukraine’s membership to NATO as an “achieveable goal.”
“I think it’s [an] achievable goal and this is a very important goal, too.”
Meanwhile, what’s going on simultaneously is, in my view, directly linked to the outcomes of this NATO Summit in Vilnius.
Although Euronews covers the Hungarian government’s position on Sweden’s accession to NATO extensively in their channels, I was surprised to find that there weren’t any reports or updates following the Hungarian farm minister’s visit to Turkey to discuss details about the Black Sea Grain Deal this week.
Reportedly, Hungarian leaders represented five of the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) group of countries — Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia — by visiting Turkey to meet with government officials about the Black Sea Grain Deal.
Istvan Nagy, Farm Minisiter of Hungary, visited Ankara, Turkey, on 11 July 2023, to discuss the deal made jointly by Russia, Turkey and the United Nations (UN) to allow for exports of energy, food and fertilizer through Black Sea ports of Ukraine.
TRT World, a channel based in Istanbul, covers topics related to World Affairs and other developments in Turkish politics. They have highlighted all of the most recent and relevant details about the Black Sea Grain deal to date.
I am delighted that they did. Because the success or failure of this Black Sea Grain Deal is critical to emerging markets and global commodities. As a majority of grain and fertilizers transporting through Ukrainian territory is destined for developing countries through Africa and the Middle East.
The outcomes of this deal will also affect outcomes related to energy and food security, which will cause disruptions to the global economy, not only from the perspective of emerging markets.
For instance, Ukraine was forced to shift its grain exports to land-based infrastructure, due to the conflict with Russia which had reached a dangerous level of military conflict in the Black Sea. By moving exports on land, rather than by sea, it disrupted the supply chain networks on top of rising prices and volatile commodities markets.
It might seem that everyone would want to get on board for many of the developing world countries. But that’s just not the case. As the report by BNN-Foreign Affairs elegantly put it: “the corridor has not been functioning well, and Ukrainian grain has flooded the Central European market, creating difficulties for local farmers and producers.”
The Black Sea Grain Deal was initially extended for a second time on 18 May 2023 as the world waited with anticipation and fear during major escalations between Russia and Ukraine in their military conflict.
To know more about the Black Sea Grain Deal and what it means for geopolitical trends and global commodities markets, read this full story in the publication Areas & Producers: