Will the recent tensions between Iran and the US trigger World War 3?
With the recent developments in the Middle East after the United States assassinating Qassem Soleimani, the Commander in Chief of Quds Force in the Baghdad International Airport, Iraq where Total of 12 people were killed, including the chief of Popular Mobilisation Unit (PMU), Abdul Mahdi.
On 3rd January 2020, after the world celebrated a New Year with new aspirations and new expectations.
On 8th January, the day completion of Funeral of Soleimani, Iran attacked largest of American military bases in Al Asad and Erbil of Iraq as potential revenge. Iranian State Media claims that 80 soldiers were killed in the attack, using 15 ballistic missiles.
What had happened?
Since mid-December, protests began to rage against the incumbent Prime Minister. One of the major demands of the protesters included freeing the country of foreign troops stationed.
Why are the troops stationed? They are stationed in order to help the Iraqi army and the Kurdish Peshmerga against Secteraian crisis post-2003 invasion of Iraq and later the fight against ISIS or ISIL. The major foreign players in Iraq include- Iran Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Quds Force (a subsidiary of IRGC), The US Military, NATO-allied forces.
The protests earlier mentioned, was going out of control, and reached the Green Zone of Baghdad- Highly secured Area of Baghdad, which houses Government Offices, Foreign Offices and the US embassy as well. US embassy was the favourite target and through a security breach, the protesters entered into its premises. The protests were allegedly termed as pro-Iranian.
The US was alarmed at this security breached and called upon Iraq, who should have protected the office. But this call died down, as Trump did not waste this opportunity to target Iran for promoting, funding and supporting the protests. The US, later on, sent more troops to secure the US embassy. US airforce also did multiple airstrikes on various Shia Militia installations around Baghdad.
By 1 AM Local time, a drone strike took place in Baghdad International Airport, killing 12 people including Qassem Soleimani, and Abdul Mahdi. Qassem Soleimani’s body was torn apart in the airstrike. His body was identified just because his hand had a red ring. Post attack, US asked all its citizens to leave Iraq.
Iran after declaring state-wide mourning and vowed to take revenge against the United States. On the other hand, Trump claimed it to be his achievement and has openly called for retaliation against Iranian revenge. He exclaimed it to be a golden feather-like Obama’s Operation Geronimo which killed Osama Bin Laden.
In retaliation, IRGC targeted several US bases in Iraq as mentioned above. The US in response stopped flights to the Persian Gulf and advisory to trade ships in Strait of Hormuz. On 9th January, the US announced that it is ready for negotiations with Iran. US media claims that Iran’s tactical moves may avoid a war.
Who was Qassem Soleimani and why was he a controversial face?
Solemani was born into a family in Kerman, Iran. He worked in the construction industry before joining IRGC in 1979 (post revolution).
1979, was the turning point in the history of Iran and the Middle East. Pro-American Secular Shah Imperial regime was thrown out and replaced by the Islamic Republic through the 1979 Islamic Revolution led by Ruhollah Khameini. Post that IRGC was formed to protect the Islamic Identity of Iran and also guard its frontiers.
Since then Iran has taken a 100% pro-Palestinian stance. It started to support Hamas resistance movement and later it spread out to various Shia Militias proxies across the Middle East. The notable one being Hezbollah of Lebanon, which is known for war against Israel in 2006, which was a stalemate. Iran and Iraq fought for 8 years for no reason and one of the main commanders was Solomeini. Post-2005, the chief of IRGC is Soleimani, often said by Media as the second man of Iran and the strongest Military Commander of the Middle East.
Since 2011, Syria entered into civil war with an uprising against Bashar Al Assad who is an Alawite (An offshoot of Shia Islam). Iran supported it through Hezbollah and later through Quds Force. Post-2014, fight against ISIS in Iraq is also spearheaded by commander Soleimani. Along with Quds Force, you have Shia Militias like Popular Mobilisation Units(PMU), which worked as a buffer between both US and Iran but later the US decided to abandon it so it started to work on behalf of Quds Force. All operations in and around the Middle East by Iran and its allies were planned and calculated under his leadership. If ISIS is dead in Iraq and Syria, then the person who made it possible is him.
Ever since Trump took office, the US was at loggerheads with Iran. This is alleged to the pressure of Israeli and Saudi lobby. In 2018, US-designated Soleimani as a terrorist. On 3rd January 1 am, near to Baghdad International Airport, saw a drone Strike that killed Commander Solemani. The US alleged that he was planning more attacks at US embassy and US troops stationed across Iraq and that the US has put to end terrorists who took the life of innocents.
The Republic of Iran declared 3 days of mourning, and his funeral saw millions of people pouring in. Whether its Baghdad, Tehran or his home town, the crowd couldn’t be controlled. If he was a terrorist for America then he is a hero for every Iranian.
Ismail Ghaani now has taken over has the commander of IRGC.
Is the action of America on killing Soleimani justified?
Pentagon, the US military HQ said that Donald Trump was the one who commanded such a military operation. Pentagon said he was adamant on this risky and most dangerous step which could lead to bigger chaos in the Middle East, where peace has just been restored after 9 years of war. American law states that Military operation has to be approved by Congress, but that didn’t happen. Soleimani was not a terrorist designated by the United Nations nor by the majority of countries except the US and Israel. Unlike Osama Bin Laden, he was a commander in chief of IRGC, a reputed military force. He has no criminal records nor has killed anyone in a terror attack. Even US law doesn’t allow a designated terrorist to be killed through a military operation, but it has only right to freeze his assets or annexe weapons.
The drone strike was carried out by the world’s largest professional military in a prominent place like the international airport of Baghdad, an important and secure point, in a capital city of a sovereign country, which is a violation of the UN charter. Just imagine the plight of International travellers, tourists and locals nearby. Such arbitrary decisions put us- visitors, tourists or travellers, local residents in danger. Tomorrow it will be an excuse to attack Delhi, Paris, Islamabad, Tehran or anywhere else.
A short profile of Iran
Iran is an Islamic Republic in the Levant region of the Middle East. It is bordered by Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkey, Iraq, and Russia. Its major religion is Shia Islam. It has two strong military divisions- Iran Republican Army and the IRGC. The Prime Minister of Iran is Hassan Rouhani. The capital of Iran in Tehran, also its largest city. Iran is an OPEC member and is one of the largest petroleum and natural gas producers. The head of Iran is also known as the Supreme Leader, and he is Aythollah Khameili. He is also known as the Pope of Shia Islam and is worshipped by Shias across the world. The other Shia major state in the neighbourhood is Iraq, and Bahrain while there is a large Shia minority in Pakistan, India, Oman, Saudi Arabia etc. Iran had in past stopped nuclear energy post-1979 and later restarted in 2009, for generating power. Iran is a strong country and a big influencer. Despite that, it couldn’t spread its influence to neighbouring Afghanistan because they are Sunni nations and also the strength of Pakistan both as a military power as well as a buffer to Saudi Arabia.
Coming to foreign relations, post-1979, as said earlier Iran had a strong stance against the United States. Since then, it has come into very good terms with Russia and its allies. Apart from Russia, it has strong ties with Iraq, Syria, Lebanon. It has also seen moderate terms with neighbours Turkey, Pakistan, and India. In a breakthrough in 2014, Barack Obama tried to reduce its tensions with Iran through dialogue and created the landmark nuclear deal in 2015 along with P5, which Donald Trump unilaterally exited in 2018.
The situation in the Middle East and the involvement of Iran
Being an Islamic republic, it always tried to dominate the region. Its biggest rival in the neighbourhood is Saudi Arabia. Since 2011, Saudi Arabia has been playing a proxy was against Iran in various Arab neighbours. Since 2016, Saudi Arabia and Iran have no diplomatic ties, after Iranians rammed into the Saudi embassy in Tehran. Saudi has been misusing platforms like the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation.
In Syria, since the Arab Spring, Iran is defending the Assad Regime. All help like ammunitions, machinery, troops is being supplied to suppress the rebels. But in Yemen, there is a reverse game of Iran by supporting the Houthi rebels against Saudi puppet Mansour Hadi. In Iraq, Iran is the dominant force supporting Shia militias against Sunni Rebels and Sunni extremist ISIS. It also supported Kurdish Peshmerga in the past against Sadam Hussian and now against ISIS. In 2018, the US also declared IRGC as a terrorist organisation. Iran is the strongest critic of the Jewish state of Israel threatening to flatten Tel Aviv in a misadventure.
Recently Iran has seen more countries like Qatar and China coming up in its diplomatic list.
Iran-US Relations
The tough relations with the US and later a thaw in the mid-2000s but relations were broken after restarting the Nuclear Programme in 2009. Despite Iran’s claim of peaceful use, US put tough economic sanctions. It was only in 2015, the nuclear deal was brought to effect, and in return removing all sanctions. This was one of the best diplomatic strategies of Obama.
Read more on Iran Nuclear Deal and Why Trump exited the deal
Today, as we speak Trump withdrew from the deal and the relations have turned out to be warlike. Tough sanctions are in place, Iran is not able to sell oil and its economy is crippling. On 6th August, Iran confirmed their official exit from Iran Nuclear Deal and they won’t comply with any of its nuclear parameters on Uranium Centrifuges. Several times, US and Iranian troops in Iran came on a direct conflict but restraint was followed. There is still no diplomatic relations between the US and Iran, the talks between them happen through Switzerland, the country which is diplomatic to all. Pakistan is country representative of Iran to the US.
On 7th January, the US denied VISA to Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif Mohammed. He was to attend the UNSC meeting at UNSC. Despite UN HQ being in an International Zone, but just because near airport lies to be in New Zork City, the VISA was rejected. After the Iranian response, it's pretty clear that the chapter of this escalations and tensions will not subside down easily. On 7th January, Iranian Parliament passed a bill designated the US army as a terrorist organisation.
Consequences of the attack
Iraq is now the playground of Iranian and American show of strength. Despite, Iraq asking the US troops to leave, the US is asking Iraq to pay the bills of US troops. While Iran has said that all military checkpoints of the US are under its radar. With two bases already attacked, the US will try to retaliate as well.
The major allegation still stays on Donald Trump that he is trying to save his face, by this move suppressing his impeachment news and a push for him to get re-elected this year. Again, he is misusing the US military for his personal gains.
Saudi Arabia amongst all of this is the biggest loser. Despite spending billions of Dollar in Syrian rebels and Billions of dollars for airstrikes in Yemen, both games have already declared Iran as the winner. Despite hiring Pakistani Pilots to train Saudi Military personal, no effect is seen on the ground. After all, when the attack on Soleimani happened, conflict is about to restart and Saudi as no role to play.
Read more on MUNNER’s Daily’s analysis- Yemeni crisis
Oil Prices have already shot up by 4% after 3rd January. It rose by more3 than 10% post 8th January. Gold prices are also on an upward curve.
The most probable response of Iran ranges attacking US bases to blocking US ships in Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, which will hurt global trade and shoot up oil prices further. India issued a travel advisory for travelling in Iraq.
Will there be a world war?
It has been 72 years since a World War took place. Its effects are still thriving in Japan, where nuclear radiation of atom bombs dropped still persist. It is very hard any International Analyst or for MUNNER’s Daily to predict if a war will happen or not. Today as we speak, there is no denial of the fact that nuclear war or even a conventional war will be more catastrophic than what we have seen in the past.
There are 10 incidents which brought the world to the brink of WW3 but was averted by people with a proper presence of mind.
Even during the Cold War, the only thing which prevents a world war was the NATO treaty. Even today, NATO is strong but there is disagreement amongst various allies on Trump’s foreign policy. Even now, the majority of US allies don’t support US unilateral action on Iran Nuclear Deal and the Attack on Soleimani. Pakistan and Afghanistan despite being US bases said that they won’t allow their land to be used against anyone. Thus the nearest US bases useful will be in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Iraq, Israel and Kuwait. It is unlikely that a NATO country like Turkey will ditch Iran.
The main playground of the war will decide the fate of it will escalate to an all-out WW. If it is Iraq then Iran has the upper hand. The American ground forces will have to ship from the US, which may take days. Coming into Navy and Arial combat, clearly, the US has a massive lead. The economy of Iran is not in good shape to keep it fighting. A spark might also lead Israel into the fray, making things even worse. If at a break of war can turn deadly will be the Russian entry to defend Iran, and the former can also bring in China, and it will trigger a WW3. The safest regions in the world, during a time of WW3, will be Canada, Switzerland, New Zealand, Japan, and Iceland.
Morality is on neither side. US has had a bad name for intervefering in all wars. Starting from 2003 Iraqi Invasion which sparked the tensions to today, where it reignited Iran, US is responsible atleast at every stage. US was also involved in Iran-Iraq war, Iraq-Kuwait war, Palestine-Israel negotiation etc. Iran is trying make itself a big brother in the neighbourhood.
The war in middle east won’t end, as the US said that there won’t be an easy withdrawal from Iraq, while Iran still has major leverage over Iraq, Syria, Lebanon etc and still continue to defeat the US presence hook or crook. Caught between rivals, Iraq is still paying a big price. Let us hope that no war takes place amongst the United States and Iran and maximum restraint be in place even during a sudden escalation.
MUNNER’s Daily as always stands of the fact that peace is the ultimate achievement for humanity. Restraint is the biggest thing for both sides to do now. Only through peaceful resolution and dialogue can bring down the problem. There must be an immediate UN intervention and a UNSC meeting to cool down the situation. We hope that the UN will be successful in bringing the arch-rivals together. Let us responsible members of the global community not fall into social media rejoice like WW3 trending on twitter and memes being circulated taking the situation lightly.
If you believe that you believe that you can perform well in the arena of Indian diplomacy then surely try for a career in International Relations, then surely for that. This is a guide for you, do read.
Disclaimer: We are a platform which allows all views to be represented without bias or discrimination. This piece is not to be judged upon as the final stance of MUNner’s daily or MEC MUN Society.
.
.
.
Follow us on medium for more for similar stories. Follow us on Social media to stay in the loop- Facebook| Instagram|Telegram Channel |Youtube|Twitter. We also invite guest writers to publish their material via this blog!.
