Ukraine War

Will Putin Do What Hitler Did?

Open a second front to split and push NATO? But where?

Bogged down

It was hardly a blitzkrieg attack. The West knew it was going to happen.

Putin expected Ukraine to fall within a week.

And now Putin is bogged down militarily and diplomatically almost a month after he gave the invasion order. His image as a master of chess and geopolitics has been trashed.

There is no easy out for him.

So, what next?

There is talk of a diplomatic resolution. Short of total, unequivocal defeat a diplomatic solution is always the outcome of a war.

However, any form of diplomatic solution now would still be seen as a defeat for Putin. Any sane and informed person sees this as a loss for him.

So what other options could he have — and be crazy enough to select?

Let’s turn to history for a lesson.

France, 1941

Hitler was stalled. His armies had driven the British Expeditionary Force out of France at Dunkirk. He was in control of the bulk of mainland Europe. He visited the French coastline and looked across the Channel at the White Cliffs of Dover.

Then he went home to Berlin, abandoned plans to invade England and turned eastward, opening a Second Front against Russia and Stalin, with whom he’d signed a non-aggression pact in 1939.

It would prove to fatal for Hitler.

But could Putin try the same, open a second front?

A Second Front for Putin in the Baltic?

He’d be mad to try?

Well, I think he’s more than demonstrated his lack of credentials in the sanity department.

Incursions

But there is some disturbing evidence coming to light. For instance, Russian aircraft have been carrying out incursions into Swedish airspace.

Janes.com reported incursions on 2nd March 2022 into Swedish airspace :

Russian combat aircraft entered Swedish airspace on 2 March, close to the island of Gotland in the Baltic Sea.

Announced by the Swedish Armed Forces, the incursion saw a pair of Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) Sukhoi Su-27/30-series ‘Flanker’ multirole combat aircraft and two Sukhoi Su-24 ‘Fencer’ strike aircraft enter national airspace during bilateral Swedish and Finnish exercises in the area.

Non-NATO, but EU members

Sweden is a member state of the EU but not a member of NATO.

As, indeed, is Finland.

The governments of both countries are increasingly nervous and their populations are starting to see NATO membership as desirable, according to opinion polls. And their governments appear to be warming — slowly — to the idea.

Putin could attack these countries without crossing the NATO tripwire.

However, Russia has attacked Finland in the past and come away with a bloody nose — the so-called Winter War which started in November 1939.

NATO and EU members in the Baltic States

The former Soviet republics of Estonia and Latvia each have borders with the Russian Federation, Lithuania has a border with Belarus. The states are members of NATO and the EU. Putin has long raged about those memberships.

As members of NATO they subscribe to the ‘All for one, One for all’ commitment of NATO members.

Putin may well think that if he has to take on NATO at some point it might as well be there, close to his home city of St Petersburg — or Leningrad as I am sure he would prefer it to be known again.

A possible feint at Finland with a heavy punch into the Baltic States could well be an option he is considering to draw attention away from the Ukraine bog.

Invasion plans?

Video footage of a discussion aired on Russian state television about seizing the Baltic States has recently been uncovered.

A retired high-ranking officer in the Putin’s military issued a frightening scenario for NATO countries Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, as well as neutral Sweden, in which his army would take over.

According to The Sun, Colonel Igor Korotchenko, formerly of the Russian General Staff and Air Force and currently a reserve officer, outlined the following scenario on Russia’s state television station Rossiya 1:

…at the beginning “a massive Russian radio-electronic strike is inflicted” as “all NATO radars go blind and see nothing”.

“At this time, on the Swedish island Gotland, Russian military planes land, delivering S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems, and Bastion coastal anti-ship systems,” he continued.

“They are deployed — and for now no-one knows or sees anything. The West wonders: ‘Why do we see nothing? What happened to our radars?’”

Korotchenko then describes how the Russian troops would push out from the enclave of Kaliningrad towards the Suwalki corridor, to block access to reinforcements from Poland.

Finally, in the aftermath of a Russian victory, Korotchenko imagines an Estonia that has pledged allegiance to Moscow and Sweden agreeing to permanent neutrality and a 99-year lease on Gotland.

The Russian government has yet to recognize the videos, despite their showing in Ukraine at the end of 2021. Anton Herashchenko, a government adviser for Ukraine, published them on his website.

The only link to the video that I have been able to locate is here.

Truth is the first casualty of war, but the scenario does feed the ideas that Putin has publicly espoused.

The best laid plans of mice and men…

Now Putin is stalled in Ukraine. NATO has had time to rethink, refinance via Germany’s military about-turn, and re-plan.

Secretary-General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, has said that new plans are being prepared to deal with the “new reality.”

NATO exercises have been underway, including Arctic war games with troops from 27 nations, 200 aircrafts, and 50 ships. The aim is to examine how NATO members would operate together on land, air, and sea in accordance with the charter of Article 5.

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