Ukraine War
There’s No Easy Out for Putin
And that’s a big problem for the West — we should beware the cornered mad dog
Putin is in a strategic corner, not only of Europe, but a geopolitical one of his own building. All his options for ending the conflict are extremely unattractive.
Exit strategies
There are several possible exit strategies that Putin could pursue in order to end the war in Ukraine.
- One option would be a full withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine, with a commitment to not interfere in Ukrainian affairs in the future. This would likely require significant concessions from Russia, such as withdrawing its support for separatist groups in Ukraine and recognizing the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government.
- Another option would be a negotiated settlement between Russia and Ukraine, which would likely involve the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukrainian territory and a commitment by Russia not to interfere in Ukrainian affairs in the future. This option would likely require compromises from both Russia and Ukraine, and could be difficult to achieve.
- Putin could choose to intensify the war effort in Ukraine, in an attempt to gain more territory and force a settlement on Russia’s terms. However, this option would lead to hugely increased bloodshed and further damage to Ukraine’s (he doesn’t care about that) — and Russia’s — economy.
- He could open another front (that’s what Hitler did), but not in the geographical sense — a new front in cyberspace. Most observers think that he would be reluctant to do this because the boundaries of such a conflict would be difficult to manage, and could rebound on Russia itself. There is little doubt that the Ukraine has a strong cyberwarfare capability but appears to be ‘keeping its powder dry’ at present. As to ‘why?’ — that’s a good question.
- The use of chemical or biological weapons to intensify the war and create an even bigger exodus of refugees westward is a possibility. Russia has used these weapons inside its own territory — Chechnya — in 1999. Using them outside the boundaries of Russia would be a serious escalation.
- Putin could also choose to escalate the conflict by using nuclear weapons. This ultimate option is highly risky and could lead to a nuclear war between Russia and the United States.
Analysis paralysis
So, Putin has several possible exit strategies for the war in Ukraine. He could withdraw Russian forces, negotiate a settlement, or intensify the conflict. However, each of these options has its own risks and drawbacks, and it is unclear which option Putin will choose, but I cannot see a negotiated settlement as an outcome.
For the moment it seems he is pushing ahead with the invasion and mounting casualties. The hits he is taking to Red Army personnel include the deaths of senior general staff officers (Major General Vitaly Gerasimov and Major General Andrei Sukhovetsky) who have been on the front line trying to gee-up the morale of their troops, many of whom are disaffected conscripts deserting in droves.
Ultimately, Putin will have to decide which exit strategy is best for Russia and its interests in Ukraine. While any of these options could potentially lead to an end to the war, none of them are without huge risk or complication. He could probably ‘get away with’ the use of chemical weapons.
We need the veterinarian
However, I fear that Vlad the Invader is akin to a mad dog in an increasingly tight corner, and that does not bode well for world peace.
The final solution for Putin is the best one.
Will anyone step up to the plate in the Kremlin?
About me: I write on a variety of topics including humor, tech and travel, together with daily news events and the minutiae of daily life on a boat. I also write techno-thrillers…and about…
…that fucking cretin Putin and his mad ‘special military operation’ in the Ukraine. It’s a fucking war!
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