Why Some Latinos Vote Republican

The overwhelming majority of Latin American voters backed Democratic candidates nationally in 2016 and 2018. But the percentage of Latinos who backed Republicans in those same election years is at least double the percentage of Black voters who supported Republican candidates.

It may come as a surprise that many Americans of Latin American descent remain aligned with Republicans in the Donald Trump era. However, it’s worth noting that about half (48%) say Democrats show more concern for the Latino community, while just 14% say Republicans have more concern (about 32% say there is no difference between parties). Over the last two decades, the GOP has been able to count on at about 25% of the Hispanic vote.

That is unlikely to change

The most recent high of Latin American citizens that said Democrats had more concern for them was in 2015 when 59% of Latin American registered voters said the Democratic Party had more concern for the community (an 11 point drop in just three years). Meanwhile, the percentage of Latin American voters who see no difference between parties has jumped from 22% in 2015, to 32% in 2018 according to Pew Research. Many Hispanics base this viewpoint on the policy decisions of previous administrations.

Of the various reasons many in the Latin American community still support Trump, is the growing evangelical base within Hispanic communities. However, the vast majority of the Latin Americans are staunch Catholics who remain largely progressive. If this trend continues, Democrats will maintain the larger share of support of Hispanic voters. There is still a smaller, but large enough contingent of Latin Americans that remain staunch Republican supporters.

“There is a growing evangelical share among Hispanics, and that may be an important part of the story for Republican Latinos.” — Mark Hugo Lopez, Pew’s director of Hispanic research tells FiveThirtyEight

Republicans are successful in states like Florida because of their extensive spending to engage with the Latin American community. Democrats have typically made less of an effort to hear Hispanics out. Florida will always remain an issue of contention with Latin Americans who reside outside of the state. Those who no longer reside in Florida find themselves at odds with those within the state who seemingly vote against their own interests. A large portion of Latin American voters still finds themselves disgruntled with Barack Obama’s immigration policies, which led to the deportation of millions of immigrants.

Many Hispanics in Southern states remain supporters of Republicans as a direct result of the effort put forth by the GOP to spend millions of dollars on outreach in those communities. Commentators argue this is the main reason Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott won their elections in the 2018 midterms. The same is being said about Ted Cruz and Greg Abbott in Texas. This strategy is how Republicans win enough of the Hispanic vote to get elected.

Going a little further back in history, we can see the many policies of Republican administrations benefitted Latin American communities and their undocumented family members.

Ronald Reagan signed into law the Immigration Reform and Control Act on November 6, 1986, providing amnesty to nearly 3 million undocumented immigrants who could prove that they were in the United States prior to January 1, 1982. Then in 1987, Reagan’s Immigration and Naturalization Service commissioner announced that minor children of parents granted amnesty by the law would get protection from deportation as well.

Then in 1989, George H.W. Bush would also granted amnesty to about 1.5 million additional unauthorized immigrants (40%) through the Immigration and Naturalization Service. Bush put in place a new “family fairness” policy that Congress would later pass into law by the end of that year as part of broader immigration legislation.

While these policies generated much support from the Latin American community, when Barack Obama attempted to provide amnesty for the same percentage of undocumented immigrants — about 5 million — Republicans were unwilling to support the policy. Instead, they thwarted his attempts by using the power of the purse in Congress to stop him. Ultimately, a split-decision by an eight-member Supreme Court would deal a crushing blow to President Obama’s executive actions on immigration.

While Republicans once retained higher support from the Hispanic community, it appears they can always depend on a small, but an impactful, portion (+/-25%) of those votes. However, Democrats must make a much stronger effort and be willing to spend the extra money to counter the strategy of the Republican Party. Not only do Democrats need to connect with the Latin American community more, but they also need to follow-through on their promises as well.

By and large, Latin Americans are no longer willing to be used as pawns by either party to win elections. Despite all of the spending by the Republican hate machine to promote outreach in Hispanic communities, the GOP’s platform no longer represents even a fragment of Latin American issues. The exceptions, of course, are evangelicals, anti-abortionists, and party loyalists — similar to other demographics.

Of the Hispanics who support Donald Trump’s policies, significant portions were born in the United States and/or are several generations removed from their immigrant roots. Such is the case for the vast majority of Republican Latin Americans through the past few decades.

Republicans will always have the support of some in minority communities. That will likely never change. Marginalized groups are like any other group. We arguably have the same level of willful ignorance, misunderstanding, and bigotry as any other demographic.

And we can’t fix that.