Why are Armenia and Azerbaijan fighting a war right now?
A tale of the disputed territory of Nagorno Karabakh post-Soviet era.
We have recently come across fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan ever since 27th September. Even though it made International headlines, most of us aren’t aware of this conflict and are also quite unfamiliar about these two countries. On 9th October both parties had agreed for a ceasefire to stop fighting. On 10th October both sides accused each other of violating the truce and heavy shelling was reported on the ground. The entire situation is more or like India-Pakistan for many years over Kashmir.
Let's know both Armenia and Azerbaijan
Both the nations were part of the USSR till it collapsed in 1991. Armenia is a landlocked country while Azerbaijan is on the coast of the Caspian Sea. Armenia is a Catholic Christian state, on the other hand, Azerbaijan is a Muslim major state but a secular country. Armenia is presently a democracy post its fight against dictatorship a few years back. Azerbaijan even today is a dictatorship. Azerbaijan is an oil-rich country and it’s major revenue comes from oil.
Talking about Allies, Armenia’s main allies are Iran, the European Union, and the US. Azerbaijan has close relations with Turkey, who is the primary foe of Armenia, due to the Armenian genocide by Ottoman Turks. Azerbaijan is also one of the few Muslim major countries to have good relations with Israel. Pakistan has also come in support of Azerbaijan due to its closeness with Turkey. The most important player in the picture is Russia who is an ally of both nations. Given Russia’s support for Catholic Christians, it is also interpreted that it will take the side of Armenia. The situation is exactly similar to the Syrian Civil War where Turkey and Russia are at loggerheads.
Read about the Conflict in Syria
History of Conflict: Nagorno Karabakh
The main reason for the fighting is in the geographical region of Nagorno Karabakh which is enclosed inside Azerbaijan. This is a disputed region between both nations ever since their independence from USSR.
Karabakh is made up of a majority of Ethnic Armenians and claims this land to be theirs. This region is known as the Republic of Artshak. Ethnic Azerbaijanis (minority) had boycotted the referendum while locals wanted to join Armenia instead of Azerbaijan, and the demand was put forward to the Soviets. The region despite being under Azerbaijani control is an autonomous territory ruled by Armenia backed Separatist groups. Even the international community recognises Azerbaijani sovereignty over the region.
A 1994 ceasefire called Bikshek Protocol was made which was the main reason for stability till now. In 2016 there was a brief clash between two sides for four days but came into a truce. It was only in 2020 that there was a massive escalation into war. Throughout the history of the dispute, thousands have been displaced and are not able to enjoy peaceful lives. in 2008, there was a UN General Assembly vote asking Armenia to withdraw its troops.
Starting from 1994, both sides are at loggerheads spreading propaganda and hatred against each other, just like India and Pakistan. People then try to mix up religions and ethnicity as the cause of dispute, but there is no substantial evidence to show that religion is the reason for it.
What is happening at Present?
Post establishment of democracy in Armenia, both nations had decided to de-escalate tensions, by establishing military hotlines.
In July 2020, there was a minor clash on the border with casualties from both sides which increased the tensions. The establishment in Baku decided to fuel it up using public anger. The dictatorial regime in Baku has been on a shaky chair post-covid-19 and decreasing oil prices. It is now trying to up the nationalistic sentiments amongst people and trying to keep his power intact. Azerbaijan military is well trained and equipped with the strong backing of Turkey. It has also invested a lot in Israeli defence systems.
Read about the politics of Oil
On 27th September, the fighting escalated with Armenia declaring Martial Law and troop mobilisation. Azerbaijan hit back by declaring a state of war on Armenia. The European Council, UN Security Council and leaders of various states like Emanuel Macron have warned both states to show some restraint. Vladimir Putin also requested both sides to stop fighting.
The fighting extended to towns of Susha and Stepanakert in Karabakh and later in the city of Ganja in Azerbaijan. There seemed to be no end to the fighting until both sides started to talk and resolve. Armenia was ready to negotiate but Azerbaijan kept on insisting to continue fighting unless Armenia withdraws its troops from the disputed region.
On 9th October, Russia had called for a marathon talks in Moscow between both the nations and presenting itself as the mediator. After 10 hours, the two parties agreed on a temporary ceasefire. Within minutes after it came to affect both sides claimed each other of violating it by shelling in Civilian areas. Fighting is taking place informally these areas and no one knows what exactly the future has for them. As on paper, the situation is in favour of Azerbaijan but foreign involvement of the West and Russia can overturn the tables in Armenia’s favour. It has already claimed that those regions Armenian forces had occupied were liberated by Azerbaijan Army.
From an Indian perspective, the Indian Government has called for restraint and calm. Although, Indians in Armenia and sections of Indians at home support Armenia, seeing Turkish and Pakistani support for Azerbaijan. As such, there has been no official stance taken by India on the recent clashes. India as always had recognised Nagorno Karabakh to be a part of Azerbaijan.
What is in for future?
Both sides have their own claims and perspectives. It is very hard to pinpoint out flaws or support for anyone side. Let us all hope that the ceasefire will be respected and peace will prevail.
Azerbaijani victory
Despite the fight from both sides, Azerbaijan has gained the ground and Armenia has surrendered. A ceasefire has been created with Russia as the mediator.
We also hope that the International Community promotes peace and mediate between the two sides to resolve the tensions.
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