What to watch for in a wild 2018 NFL Draft

Quarterbacks aplenty, Cleveland Browns noise, and New York buzz in a Dallas draft that’s sure to be crazy

Finally, the 2018 NFL Draft is here! It’s been a long time without football, real football, but we finally get a taste of the pigskin. The draft is in Dallas for the first time ever, and you know Jerry Jones is going to make a show of it. The draft is airing on national television for the first time ever, with coverage on FOX coupled with wall-to-wall draft talk at ESPN and NFL Network. Draft season is here at last, and we’ve reached the main event.

So what should we expect from a 2018 draft that promises to be filled with fireworks? There’s going to be a lot of early quarterback picks, plenty of talk about the Browns, and Saquon Barkley highlights galore. Here’s everything you need to know to get ready for the 2018 NFL Draft …

1. The quarterbacks

It’s hard to imagine anything but the quarterbacks dominating all the early story lines. No position in sports is more important. The Minnesota Vikings gave out $84 million in guaranteed salary to good-not-great Kirk Cousins. The San Francisco 49ers traded for Jimmy Garoppolo midseason, then dropped a 5-year $137-million deal in his lap. The Washington Redskins gave Alex Smith — Alex Smith!! — a whopping $94 million.

But not everyone got a ride on the quarterback merry-go-round. The Cleveland Browns traded for Tyrod Taylor but still need a long-term solution and are surely going to take a quarterback with two top-four picks in tow. The New York Giants at 2 need a long-term replacement for Eli Manning. Everyone in the AFC East needs a quarterback, including the New York Jets at 3. And they’re in luck, because there are four marquee names that could go early.

Sam Darnold is the face of a franchise, the easy pick. He looks the part and already played the glamour role for USC. Crosstown rival Josh Rosen was more up and down for UCLA and carries a more sophisticated profile. Brash Baker Mayfield walked on at Oklahoma before winning the Heisman and leading his team to the playoff. And all three of them could go behind little-known Josh Allen of Wyoming, the kid with the cannon arm you’ve never seen play. And oh yeah, last year’s Heisman winner Lamar Jackson of Louisville is a complete wild card too.

The quarterbacks will be the story, so much so that some mock drafts have QBs going 1–2–3–4–5 atop the draft. The Browns are sure to take one, and the Jets paid a ransom to move up to 3. The other destinations aren’t as clear. The Giants and Broncos at 2 and 5 could take a quarterback but don’t seem as interested. The Bills and Dolphins are candidates to take a QB that slides or move up for their choice. Teams in the middle like the Cardinals, Ravens, or Chargers could grab their future if the right guy falls.

The quarterbacks will certainly be the story of the 2018 draft. So which one will go 1? We can’t tell you that. But we can tell you which one should … and which one definitely shouldn’t.

2. The Cleveland Browns

If the quarterbacks somehow aren’t the story of the 2018 draft, the Browns certainly will be. Cleveland is armed with the first and fourth picks along with a trio of second rounders at 33, 35, and 64. Those first two are basically first rounders at that spot, so the Browns appear poised to cash in on a loaded cache of draft stock. They could easily trade back into the bottom of the first tonight too.

All signs point to the Browns taking some quarterback at 1, but no one knows whom. The latest buzz is Baker Mayfield, but that could be an attempt to stir up trade interest. The favorite is Sam Darnold, but most of the recent draft talk has centered around Cleveland taking Josh Allen. Almost no one thinks they’ll take Josh Rosen, so maybe he’s the guy. Either way, with all those picks and no need to trade down, it’s finally time to take a quarterback.

Could they take a second one at 4? It’s a wild strategy no one has really tried before, but don’t the Browns need to try something new? Why not cash in this bonus pick for a second bite of the apple and take two potential franchise quarterbacks? Only around 30 or 40% of first-round quarterbacks actually hit. Why not double your odds?

It probably won’t happen, but it could — and it’s the Browns, so you know it’ll turn out poorly no matter what they do. The more likely picks at 4 appear to be North Carolina State pass rusher Bradley Chubb or do-everything Penn State running back Saquon Barkley, widely regarded as the draft’s top two overall talents. And of course, the Browns could always trade down again. Whatever Cleveland does, the first hour of the draft belongs to them.

3. Saquon Barkley

There’s no more obviously talented player in the draft than Penn State’s Saquon Barkley. Barkley is the whole package. He’s a running back that does a bit of everything. Barkley is shifty and powerful. He’s both quick and fast. He hurdles defenders or plows them over, stiff arms them or leaves them grasping air in his wake. Barkley catches passes and returns kicks. He has burst and strength and everything you look for in a feature running back. And he was even better than expected at the Combine.

So why isn’t he the #1 pick? Because it’s 2018, and running back has become the most fungible throwaway position in football.

Look no further than the Super Bowl, where the Patriots and Eagles brought a cadre of castoffs and leftovers at running back and did just fine all year. Few teams have or even want a feature running back anymore. Like NBA big men, most NFL teams appear content to rotate three or four guys with varying skill sets and focus their cash and draft stock elsewhere. All the more so considering running backs have the shortest shelf life in the game.

Saquon Barkley is a sure thing, a once-in-a-generation running back. But so was Leonard Fournette a year ago and Ezekiel Elliott the year before that. Remember Trent Richardson? He was a generational talent runner too. Lately, we get the next Adrian Peterson just about every year.

Saquon Barkley will be the #1 pick in every dynasty rookie draft, and he could be a first-round pick in fantasy football drafts this fall. He’s the guy one team’s fans will be most excited to nab tonight — no matter how much recent history has warned against using a high draft pick on a runner.

4. Jets and Bills pre-draft trade ups

If you’re just catching up, you already missed two big trades. The Jets paid a king’s ransom to move from 6 to 3, giving up one second-round pick for each draft slot they jumped. Buffalo’s move was quieter. They gave up tackle Cordy Glenn to climb from 22 to 12. Teams don’t move up in the draft unless they have a target in mind, and they don’t typically give up a ton of stock unless they’re swinging for a big name. That’s why most draftniks have the Jets and Bills looking at quarterback.

What complicates things is that both teams made their moves so early, before even knowing which players will be there. Oftentimes that means a team has locked onto a particular player they may be slightly overvaluing.

For the Jets, it has to be a quarterback. You don’t give up three second-round picks to move up three spots and not get your franchise QB. But how do you make that move when the teams in front of you may both take a quarterback too? Maybe because all the talk at 1 and 2 is about Allen, Darnold, and Rosen and you have your gaze set on another player. Could Baker Mayfield be the Jets’ choice at 3? It makes sense. Perhaps that’s why Cleveland is suddenly so “interested” in Mayfield at 1, trying to force one more Jets trade.

What about the Bills? A lot of mock drafts have them taking whichever quarterback slides, but that doesn’t hold logic. You don’t trade up before the draft to hope a player slides, to hope you get the leftover QB no one else wanted. Maybe that trade up was a precursor to a second move. The Bills own picks 12, 22, 53, 56, and 65, so they have plenty of ammo to make another trade. But if the plan is to stay put at 12, could it be Lamar Jackson they have their eye on? Could be, but even he may not make it out of the top-10.

One long shot? Late rising Oklahoma State quarterback Mason Rudolph could be a shock pick, maybe even if some of the other quarterbacks are still there. Teams trading up don’t always get the best value. Sometimes they just spot a guy that can’t get away from.

5. Colts and Bengals pre-draft trade downs

Of course, the Jets and Bills didn’t act alone. Like moving up, trading down can also lead to suspicious picks at times.

Sometimes a team trading down just sees too much trade value to pass up. That could be the case for Indianapolis, who doesn’t need a QB and got three top-50 picks to move down three spots — only one or two spots really since the Colts weren’t touching the QBs anyway. Other times a team moves down because there’s simply no one they like or because they can’t make up their mind.

But sometimes a team knows exactly who they want — and that their guy will be available much later. Sometimes those teams move down a little bit but still make a big reach. That may or may not happen with Indianapolis and Cincinnati, but if you’re looking for a couple picks that could be total wild cards, watch out for Indy’s 6 and Cincy’s 22.

6. Colts, Bucs, and Bears in good shape at 6, 7, and 8

If the draftniks are right and the top few picks are full of quarterbacks, no teams will be happier than these three sitting just outside the top-5. The Colts, Bucs, and Bears are set at quarterback with Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston, and Mitch Trubisky. They’d love four or five QBs to go in the top-5 picks. None of those guys are even on their draft boards.

When Indianapolis picks at 6, it’s possible only one or two non-QBs will have been selected. Depending on who those guys are, the Colts could get the top guy on their entire draft board. Same with the Bucs at 7. The Bears are farther down but can cross another name off their board in Saquon Barkley, considering how good Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen look. Chicago picks at 8, but if Barkley and a quartet of quarterbacks are already gone, that’s basically a top-3 pick.

The Colts in particular could have a chance to turn around their franchise. Their pick at 6 could be the top non-QB in the draft, and they also own 36, 37, and 49. It was a lost year in Indy, but if they get a healthy Andrew Luck back plus four top-50 picks, they could turn things around in a hurry.

7. Possible trade ups into the 6 to 10 range

Expect some fireworks from picks in the 6 to 10 range. If one of the top quarterbacks slides, any team in this range could trade down with someone like Buffalo, Miami, or Arizona, a chance to pick up a second first-round pick But if the top QBs all go early, the fireworks could really go off in this range. Many years, Bradley Chubb or Saquon Barkley might be the #1 pick. This year one of them could slide to this 6 to 10 range and offer one of these teams an awesome value or a chance to trade out for a ransom.

What about a team like the Packers at 14? They don’t normally pick that high, and they obviously don’t need a quarterback. But what if four or five quarterbacks go early and Green Bay sees their favorite player in the draft sitting there 9 or 10, suddenly only a few picks away? The Packers could make a rare trade up and add a prized piece.

The Chargers could make a huge swing at 17 to get Los Angeles buzzing. Could the home team Dallas send the draft crowd into a tizzy with a move up? These teams had failed 2017 campaigns, and this unique draft could be a chance to move up for a star and change set the tone for the new season.

8. Dolphins and Bills at 11 and 12, both needing a QB

The most obvious teams to make a big move up for a quarterback are Miami and Buffalo. The Dolphins have Ryan Tannehill, but he hasn’t played since 2016. The Bills have only A.J. McCarron and Nathan Peterman, the worst quarterback duo in the league. Miami and Buffalo sit at 11 and 12, right behind those five teams that don’t need a quarterback.

The Bills were the team left standing in the game of QB free agency musical chairs. Names like Sam Bradford, Case Keenum, and Kirk Cousins all found new homes, and Buffalo was left to clean up the scraps. But the Bills are armed with essentially five picks in the first two rounds at 12, 22, 53, 56, and 65. They already moved up once. Could they move again?

They might have to, because they’re fighting two division rivals for the same quarterbacks. Miami needs a QB and sits just ahead of Buffalo, and the Bills have to move all the way up to 2 if they want to jump in front of the Jets. It’s one giant AFC East battle for quarterback positioning.

9. The New England Patriots

It turns out the Patriots had the two best quarterbacks in the division last fall. Jimmy Garoppolo is gone now, but the Pats could be the real winners of all the QB buzz as their three division “rivals” (used lightly here) try to outbid each other to overpay for a 21-year-old lottery ticket.

Meanwhile, the Pats are sitting on 23, 31, and 43 ready to make a run at another Super Bowl. They picked up two picks in the Garoppolo and Cooks deals. Could they use one on their quarterback of the future? Many seem to think so, but doesn’t it seem like this team is pushing all its chips in on Tom Brady? He may only have a year or two left, and now they have three top-50 picks to add to one of the best rosters in football.

The Patriots should enter the year as Super Bowl favorites. What else is new?

10. Not a lot of pass catchers to be found

If you’re paying attention, you’ve heard a lot of quarterbacks names along with a stud running back but no receivers. In a league built entirely around passing, there’s not a surefire first-round receiver pick in the bunch. The first round is loaded with guys to cover them, names like Minkah Fitzpatrick, Derwin James, and Denzel Ward. There are stud offensive linemen like Quenton Nelson and Mike McGlinchey. The one position no one seems to be talking about is receiver.

Alabama’s Calvin Ridley has been atop this receiving class for years, but his stock appears to be sliding. Maryland’s D.J. Moore has been a high riser, the classic Combine guy with ideal size and speed despite a lack of high-end production. The best receiver in college was Texas A&M’s Christian Kirk, but he’s a smaller slot receiver and isn’t expected to go in the first round. And there isn’t a stud tight end specimen in the class either.

A couple receivers could sneak into the first round when all is said and done, but tonight’s draft will be about the guys throwing to them, the ones protecting them, and the ones trying to stop them.

Let’s draft!

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