The optics of drafting an NFL quarterback

Which QB should your favorite team draft in the first round? The answer may be none of the above

The last eight drafts have seen 22 quarterbacks drafted in the first round, almost three per year. That includes nine quarterbacks among the top-2 picks and 14 in the top-10. Almost half the NFL has selected a QB in the first round over these past eight drafts: the Eagles, Bills, Colts, Redskins, Dolphins, Panthers, Lions, Jets, and two each for the Rams, Broncos, Bucs, Titans, Jaguars, Browns, and Vikings.

Read that list again, and this time think about how many of those 15 teams are happy with their quarterback situation heading into the 2017 season. There’s probably six, and that’s only because we still feel good about Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, and Carson Wentz. Otherwise there’s Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford, and then it gets pretty rough.

First-round QB success is a mixed bag — at best

Here’s the whole first-round QB list, with pick number in parenthesis:

2016 — Jared Goff* (1), Carson Wentz* (2), Paxton Lynch* (26) 2015 — Jameis Winston (1), Marcus Mariota (2) 2014 — Blake Bortles (3), Johnny Manziel* (22), Teddy Bridgewater* (32) 2013 — EJ Manuel (16) 2012 — Andrew Luck (1), Robert Griffin* (2), Ryan Tannehill (8), Brandon Weeden (22) 2011 — Cam Newton (1), Jake Locker (8), Blaine Gabbert* (10), Christian Ponder (12) 2010 — Sam Bradford (1), Tim Tebow* (25) 2009 — Matthew Stafford (1), Mark Sanchez* (6), Josh Freeman* (17)

It’s an ugly list. Newton and Luck are the two big success stories, though even they’ve had their struggles. Newton has only two winning seasons in six, though one of those was spectacular and led to a Super Bowl berth. Luck has been better at 43–27 but has struggled through a couple of injury-plagued playoff-less seasons. Stafford is the only other really good starter. He’s 51–58 in his career with one Pro Bowl and an 0–3 playoff record. All three of them were number one picks everyone agreed on.

Winston and Mariota look like wins, for now. Wentz too, though it’s too early on him. Heck the fourth surest thing in that entire list is probably Ryan Tannehill, and he’s been the definition of a replacement starter for the Dolphins with Mendoza-line stats year after .500 year. Sam Bradford is still a starter, even though he’s never had a winning season in seven tries. Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow won a few postseason games, or at least were present when their defenses did so. Robert Griffin was awesome for one season before injuries derailed him. It’s an ugly list.

But it gets worse. Scroll back up and look at all the guys with an asterisk (*) next to their name. GMs loved the asterisks so much they were compelled to trade up to ensure they got their guy. That list includes Goff, Wentz, Lynch, Bridgewater, Griffin, Manziel, Gabbert, Tebow, Sanchez, and Freeman. New general managers should get a rule book with a cover that reads in all-caps DO NOT TRADE UP FOR A FIRST ROUND QUARTERBACK.

That’s ten first-round QBs, but it’s more than ten first-round picks. In addition to those picks, teams also paid 4 first-round, 6 second-round, 5 third-round, and 3 fourth-round picks in trades. That’s twenty picks from the first two rounds plus some spare change for a big pile of nothing. We don’t know about Goff, Wentz, and Lynch yet, but that sure isn’t a nice list for them to be on.

Sunk cost fallacy

There’s another big problem with drafting a QB in the first round. Teams do not seem to understand the economic principle of Sunk Cost Fallacy. A sunk cost is a cost that has already been paid and cannot be recovered. The Sunk Cost Fallacy shows that humans repeatedly make irrational decisions tainted by past decisions and costs already paid.

Sunk Cost Fallacy happens everywhere. You chase a poker pot you know you’re going to lose because you’ve already invested so many chips. You choke down a meal you hate at a restaurant because of how much you paid for it. You wear that brand new pair of jeans you bought even though they don’t fit and went out of style two weeks later. Humans make irrational decisions.

NFL teams that draft a quarterback in the first round have paid a steep price. Seventeen of the 22 quarterbacks above either cost a team a top-three pick or multiple picks, both in some cases. That’s a huge cost, compounded by the number of years invested developing the QB and building the team around him, getting the right coaching staff in place, selling the fans on the player, and more. The cost of drafting a quarterback in the first round is immense.

And that causes teams to chase value years after they should have admitted sunk cost and moved on. Look how many chances the Jets gave Mark Sanchez. The Jaguars have wasted a decade going nowhere with Blaine Gabbert and Blake Bortles when neither is any good. The Dolphins are sticking with Ryan Tannehill a sixth straight year despite consistently mediocre results. Sam Bradford is still getting traded for first-round picks, and we are still paying attention to Tim Tebow even though we’ve all known he sucks at professional football for half a decade. Even terrible players like Weeden, Sanchez, Freeman, and Ponder are still bouncing around the league as highly paid backup quarterbacks, just because they have that first-round tag.

Teams invest so much in their first-round quarterbacks that they chase value long after they should have given up and moved on. Being a first-round quarterback has name brand value. Notice how you didn’t even think twice about who any of those guys were or what team they were drafted by? It’s just common knowledge.

Quarterbacks drafted in the first round are assumed to be franchise players, and they often cost teams years and years of development. Winston, Mariota, Goff, and Wentz may or may not be franchise quarterbacks that lead their teams to the promised land, but you better believe they’re going to get plenty of chances to find out because their teams will keep on feeding them opportunities even though the draft cost has already been spent.

Drafting a QB after the first-round is smarter

The problem is you have to have a good quarterback to be a successful NFL team, and the best QB prospects get selected near the top of the draft. So if you need a quarterback but you’re not supposed to pick one in the first round, what are teams to do?

Let’s take a look at another list of quarterbacks, this time including the guys taken in rounds two, three, and four over those same last eight drafts.

2016 — Christian Hackenberg (2), Jacoby Brissett (3), Cody Kessler (3), Connor Cook (4), Dak Prescott (4) 2015 — Garrett Grayson (3), Sean Mannion (3), Bryce Petty (4) 2014 — Derek Carr (2), Jimmy Garoppolo (2), Tom Savage (4) 2013 — Geno Smith (2), Mike Glennon (3) 2012 — Brock Osweiler (2), Russell Wilson (3), Nick Foles (3), Kirk Cousins (4) 2011 — Andy Dalton (2), Colin Kaepernick (2), Ryan Mallett (3) 2010 — Jimmy Clauson (2), Colt McCoy (3) 2009 — Pat White (2), Stephen McGee (4)

That’s not a great list, but remember, neither was the list of first-round quarterbacks. It’s really hard to find a good NFL quarterback, after all.

This list includes Super Bowl winner Russell Wilson, as good as anyone on the first-round list. It also includes 2016 MVP candidates Dak Prescott and Derek Carr along with a couple of other quality starters in Andy Dalton and Kirk Cousins. There’s new Bears starter Mike Glennon and new Texans starter Tom Savage plus starter-to-be Jimmy Garoppolo. That’s a pretty talented list, and it doesn’t even include guys like Tyrod Taylor and Trevor Siemian who have been successful from the sixth and seventh rounds of the draft.

Do you know what you don’t see on that list? There are no busts.

Oh there are failed players. Jimmy Clausen went 1–13 in his career. Connor Cook was one of the worst quarterbacks ever to play in a playoff game. Geno Smith went 4–10 after a promising rookie season. Many of the other names are guys you’ve totally forgotten or never even heard of because they never really got their chance.

But none of them are viewed as busts. Why is that? It’s all about the optics.

Draft optics matter

Taking a quarterback in the first round — especially in the first few picks or after you’ve traded multiple picks to get your guy — is a signal to your fans. This is the guy! This is the one who will turn the franchise around! Fans buy jerseys and dream about Lombardi trophies.

No one gets hyped about a quarterback taken in the third round. Your buddy that claims he knew all along just how good Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott would be is lying. QBs drafted in the second and third round are viewed as prospects. They’re just guys. They’re not franchise changers, and there’s no huge sunk cost of draft value or coaching development. They’re one of 75 guys fighting to make the roster. They’re guys you play in the preseason, give a shot for a few years, and move on if there’s nothing there.

Tom Savage may not end up being any good for the Texans. So what? If he stinks, they’ll just cut him and move on to the next quarterback. He can’t be any worse than Brock Osweiler, and that guy just cost them tens of millions of dollars and a second-round pick just to get rid of him.

Teams that draft a QB in the second, third, or fourth round are simply taking a shot. If they’re right, they have a player more valuable than almost anyone in professional sports — a good NFL player at the most important position in sports on a dirt-cheap contract that allows them to use cap space elsewhere to stack the team around them, a la Russell Wilson. If they’re wrong, they cut the prospect and move on to the next guy.

Who is the best team in football for the past decade? The New England Patriots, no doubt, in large part to great coaching and a Hall of Fame quarterback. But they got that quarterback by taking a flyer late in a draft when they already had a presumed Hall of Fame QB in Drew Bledsoe, and they haven’t stopped drafting quarterbacks either. No team in football has had a surer bet at quarterback the past eight seasons, yet New England leads the league with three QBs drafted in rounds two, three, and four in these past eight drafts.

One was a complete nothing in Ryan Mallett. Jacoby Brissett won the Patriots a game last year when they had no other options. And Jimmy Garoppolo won two games of his own and looks like a quarterback of the future, either for the Patriots or for whatever team trades New England a first round pick for him. Seems like this strategy is working out all right for the Patriots. Maybe other teams should pay attention.

So what should you root for watching the draft?

Drafting a quarterback is hard. There’s no more important position in sports, and teams invest everything to fill the position at any cost. Year after year, top picks are spent on quarterbacks that rarely pan out while others throw loads of picks to move up and get the apple of their eye. It almost never works out.

No one has any idea what to expect in the 2017 NFL Draft. Some still think UNC’s Mitchell Trubisky may go first in the draft to the Cleveland Browns. Others think Trubisky could be the third or fourth quarterback selected and fall out of the first round altogether. Some mock drafts have four or five QBs going in the first round.

Maybe Trubisky will be the next big thing. Or maybe it will be the fast-rising Patrick Mahomes or national champion Deshaun Watson. Maybe the California Bears will have a first-round QB in back-to-back drafts if the pundits are right about how quickly Davis Webb is shooting up draft boards.

Most likely, though, the answer will be none of the above. Perhaps one of those guys becomes an adequate starter for a few years. But all of them will cost their team a lot of draft capital and plenty of contract money, and they could set your team back for years as you watch your team continue to play a QB everyone but your general manager has admitted defeat on.

You’re much better off rooting for your team to pick up a more surefire starter at another position in the first round, then gamble on a QB one of the next few rounds. Maybe DeShone Kizer slips to the second and lives up to the hype. Perhaps Chad Kelly is as good as the Sports Science guys think. I personally like Joshua Dobbs as a late sleeper. I’d love to see my Vikings spend a third or fourth round pick on the guy.

But they won’t. Because they’re already pot-committed to Teddy Bridgewater and now Sam Bradford too, since he’s the Vikings’ 2017 first-round pick. Now Minnesota is a prisoner to Sunk Cost Fallacy like so many teams before them. They still don’t have a QB, but darn it if they won’t try those same guys again another season or two, trying to make a couple square pegs fit a round hole.

Second and third round picks are valuable too. An NFL team needs dozens of good players to be a real contender, so you can’t just throw high picks at quarterbacks year after year.

But history tells us that you’re much better off taking a shot at a quarterback in the second, third, or fourth round than going all-in on anyone in the first.

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