NBA FREE AGENCY 2023

Well, That Was Quick — the End of the Denver Nuggets Dynasty

Bruce Brown and anonymity might have been the real MVPs of the Nuggets’ title run

A week after this year’s Finals, the talking heads anointed the 53-win Denver Nuggets as a dynasty and maybe it was my fault.

Thousands and thousands of fans viewed my article “How the Denver Nuggets Turned Into the Golden State Warriors.” But they ignored the part where I wrote, “I’m not saying the Nuggets are as good as the Warriors, they followed the same model.”

Even worse, only 24 people viewed my analysis of the NBA Conference Finals, where I wrote that Denver’s great luck with team health helped them dominate the most mediocre Western Conference in 25 years.

A week after that, the Nuggets drank as deep from the Kool-Aid as any team I’ve ever seen.

On June 15, they had a huge parade, and estimated 750,000 people showed up. That’s more than the city’s population of 711,463. Even their fans are giving 105%!

Denver local talking-head Vic Lombardi trolled the Lakers again at the beginning of this video. How it is possible that a city with bears roaming around hasn’t learned the lesson about poking them?

Lombardi then introduced OG Mickey, the trolling Denver coach, replete with tilted cap and neck bling. First, he talked about repeating. Then he brought Bruce Brown to the podium and asked, “Is Brucey B going anywere? Hell no.” Finally, he finished off his four minutes of fame with chants of “dynasty, dynasty, dynasty.”

That lasted all of eighteen minutes into the start of free agency.

How good is Bruce Brown and why would his leaving hurt Denver’s chances?

Bruce Brown filled the role of Manu Ginobli for the Nuggets.

Usually the sixth man on an NBA team is a guy who can score a lot of points to keep the team afloat when the starters are out. But the reason the guys come off the bench is because they are defensive liabilities that get exposed in the playoffs. The only exceptions are Malcolm Brogdon (2023), Lamar Odor (2011) and Manu Ginobli (2008).

Brown was good enough to be a starter, but led the bench unit. But depending on the match up, he was the guy who played in crunch time.

Brown could play as a point guard to set up the offense but could also spread the floor with some streaky shooting (.358 3P% this season and .367 3P% against the Lakers and Heat). More importantly, he is a strong defender and an excellent rebounder, unafraid to mix it up with much bigger players.

During the regular season, Denver had the second to worst bench in the NBA, with a minus-6.1 point differential.

But in the last two rounds of the playoffs, Brown upped his game to stay even or win the minutes when either Jokic or Murray rested.

Guess who scored the game-wining last basket at the end of Game 5 in the Finals? Bruce Brown on an offensive rebound put back.

And guess who absolutely killed the Lakers as Denver took a 3–0 series lead?

GAME 1: Brown came in for Jamal Murray with Denver up 24–14. Jokic left the game with Denver up 34–23, and came back with Denver up 44–32. Brown came out for Murray with Denver up 54–41. In that shift, he scored 14 points on 5 for 9 shooting, with 4 rebounds, and played tough physical defense against L.A.’s guards. Brown ended up with the highest +/- on the team at +16

GAME 2: At 5:51 in the third quarter, Brown game in for Murray with Denver down 68–62. He stayed on the court the final 17:51 with Denver winning by 5. He hit two huge 3-pointers, assisted on another, and blocked Schroder’s three-point attempt near the end of the 3rd quarter with the Lakers up by 5.

GAME 3: Brown came in with Denver up by 2 and played the entire fourth quarter. With Denver trailing 93–94, he passed to Jeff Green for a corner three, made a huge three, and then passed to Murray for a third consecutive three-pointer that essentially put the game away, 102–94.

Brown’s strength and athleticism on defense hindered the Lakers’ guards and killed them when he got the ball in transition.

Per NBA.Com, the 5-man data from the Western Conference Finals showed his value. Here are the ratings when Brown played with the starters and one with three starters and Jeff Green.

Jokic, Murray, Gordon and MPJ: +35.6

Jokic, Murray, Gordon and KCP: +21

Jokic, Gordon, MPJ and KCP: +38.5

Jokic, Murray, MPJ and Green: +46.8

With these lineups, Bruce Brown was on the floor for 15.75 minutes per game with an average net rating of +34.9

For context, Denver’s starters had a +11.3 net rating.

Only one non-Brown lineup with the starters had a positive net rating, but they were only together for two minutes.

Every other lineup featuring Jeff Green and/or Christian Braun was a disaster. In 49 minutes, these lineups averaged a net rating of minus-56.4.

Even Jeff Green with Murray, Gordon, KCP, and MPJ had a net rating of minus-25.

Without Brown, the non-staring units for the Nuggets played 43 minutes and had a negative average net rating (-48.29) in the series against the Lakers. For context, the 22-win San Antonio Spurs had a collective net rating of minus-9.9.

Brown was the perfect role player for a charmed season.

In the first two rounds, Anthony Edwards and Devin Booker were a bad match up for Brown, but Denver didn’t need him. They were way too good for Minnesota and Phoenix

But in the last two rounds, which required both physical and mental toughness, he was the perfect guy to play crunch time against the Lakers and Heat.

Brown destroyed D’Angelo Russell, who didn’t have the speed or strength to get past his defender. Brown and KCP pushed D’Lo off his spots and forced him to shoot off balance and out of rhythm. Russell shot 13.3% on three-pointers in the series.

Unfortunately, rookie head coach Darvin Ham refused to bench his starting point guard despite the damning evidence. He made no adjustments and I don’t know why he wasn’t crucified by the fans or fired by the front office for this quote.

“Sometimes the greatest adjustment is just to play better. Play harder. Play better. Sometimes that’s the most key adjustment.” — A still employed NBA coach

At basketball’s highest levels, one role player can either kill a team’s chances or save their season.

Let’s look again at Ham’s flawed decision to play a guy who can defend and also shot 13.3% from deep in the series.

Per NBA.Com 5-man lineups, Russell was part of 18 different 5-man lineups. Four lineups totaling 10 minutes produced a positive net rating. Two lineups totaling 6 minutes produced a zero net rating. And twelve lineups totaling 79 minutes produced a negative net rating. (Note: I did not count lineups that played zero minutes, so the total team minutes add up to less than 48.)

D’Lo was on the floor for 95 total minutes, with an average net rating of minus-13.6. The Lakers lost by an average of six points, despite having either a fourth quarter lead or a chance to tie the game in the last minute in every game.

Without Russell, the Lakers had 10 lineups that played a total of 98 minutes with an average net rating of plus-11.6. Remember, Denver’s starters had a net rating of plus-11.3. That’s how close these teams were when they fielded their most effective players.

Now imagine how the series would have gone if D’Lo and Bruce Brown changed places.

Denver is still the current betting favorite to win the title next year, but the West got a lot better in free agency.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS

The Lakers’ took a flawed roster that came together after the trade deadline and turned into one of the best teams in the league. But they had no continuity, as LeBron and D’Lo were often injured during those 24 regular season games.

For the upcoming season, the Lakers will bring back their core players (LeBron, Anthony Davis, Austin Reaves, Jarred Vanderbuilt, Rui Hachimura, and D’Angelo Russell), along with holdovers Max Christie and Wenyen Gabriel. Depending on the contract negotiations, they might also bring back Lonnie Walker IV, Mo Bamba and Malik Beasley.

To this group they added Gabe Vincent, whose size, strength, floor spacing and fighting spirit make him an upgrade over Dennis Schroder.

In addition, they added another 3-and-D wing in Taurean Prince, a rim-protecting center in Jaxson Hayes, and a gamble on former top 10 draft pick Cam Reddish.

Finally, the Lakers found solid draft picks in big guard Jalen Hood-Shafino, forward Maxwell Lewis, and some interesting two-way players.

Perhaps the biggest news of all is the departure of Ham-favorite Dennis Schroder. Without him, Ham can’t play the small three-guard lineups that killed the team like clockwork.

PHOENIX SUNS

The Suns traded for Bradley Beal, giving them the best 1–2–3 punch in the league. They will have to figure out how to fill out their roster and get DeAndre Ayton back to his 2021 form.

The Suns hired a new coach in Frank Vogel, a defensive genius with a championship pedigree. If he can squeeze enough defense out of their stars, he may be the perfect choice for the Suns to make a Finals run.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

The Grizzlies replaced a guy who became a locker room cancer with Marcus Smart, a tough, experienced veteran who is one of the best two-way guards in the league. He is the big, strong defensive guard Memphis needed to complement Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Luke Kennard. Memphis learned their lesson as they watched Austin Reaves and D’Angelo Russell destroy their pick and roll defense.

If Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke recover their form after season-ending injuries, Memphis will be bigger and more versatile in the front court than Denver, as Adams will body up Jokic, allowing Jaren Jackson Jr. to protect the rim. And they have the depth to match Aaron Gordon on the boards with Brandon Clarke and Xavier Tillman, but can spread the floor with Santi Aldama and David Roddy.

Before Adams got hurt, Memphis was #1 in the NBA in offensive rebound rate and they are elite at running the floor. With Ja Morant speed, they can put tremendous pressure on Jamal Murray as a defender, the best way to limit his offensive output.

GOLDEN STATE

Because of their age and salary cap problems, the Warriors are almost an after thought. But they got rid of Jordon Poole’s contract which is a huge relief, both financially and for the morale of the team. I don’t think he, or the team chemistry ever recovered from the Draymond Green punch.

If Klay Thompson recovers his shooting touch and Chris Paul can adapt to his new role as a backup to Stephen Curry, Golden State still has their championship DNA. One hot-shooting streak and they could knock off the Nuggets.

THE FIELD

With five excellent teams fighting for home court in the first round, there may not be room for anyone else. But the Clippers, Mavericks, Timberwolves, Pelicans and Thunder all have the talent to knock off a higher seed if…

The Clippers dynamic duo can stay healthy.

The Mavs figure out how to play defense with a Doncic-Irving back court.

The Timberwolves turn the team over to Anthony Edwards and turn Karl Anthony Towns into an elite two-way wing.

The Pelicans can finally get Zion Williamson healthy for a playoff run.

The Thunder can gain enough experience for their young, talented core to reach the playoffs.

THE BUILDERS

Utah, Houston, San Antonio and Portland should be the bottom teams in the Western Conference, but will start the season looking to gain experience for their young players. There will be no easy outs in the West this year.

As champions, Denver will have the target on their backs now.

Denver had the second worst bench in the league last season, but somehow won five of the twelve games that Jokic sat out.

Next season, every bad team is going to play Denver like it is a playoff game and every good team is going to play their stars when the Nuggets are in town.

This season, Denver cruised to the #1 seed in the West and rested their players for the last two weeks of the season. This allowed Jokic to jump from 33.7 minutes per game in the regular season to 39.5. Against the Lakers, he played over over 42 minutes per game except for Game 3 when he sat with early foul trouble. In the Finals, he averaged over 41 minutes per game.

As the regular season race heats up next year, Denver won’t get the same rest advantages. They may not get home court throughout the playoffs. And they probably won’t see Jokic shoot better in these playoffs (.461 3P%) than Stephen Curry (career best .422 3P% in 2015 playoffs, .455 in 2012 regular season).

Last season, Denver was one of the healthiest teams in the NBA. Michael Porter Jr., the guy with the worst back in the league, still played in more games than LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Any injury set backs will create huge problems because of Denver’s lack of depth.

Finally, Denver will have to learn to deal with the media’s constant efforts to probe for a story and find cracks in the team psyche. OG Mickey will start complaining about why the media is now fixated on Denver’s problems.

Be careful what you wish for.

Thanks for reading!

If you are not a Medium member, sign up with the link below to support me at no additional cost to you and read unlimited articles on Medium.