NBA FINALS PREVIEW
How the Denver Nuggets Turned Into the Golden State Warriors
The Nuggets surrounded offensive unicorn Nikola Jokic with the most complete two-way roster in the NBA
Let me be the first one to congratulate the Denver Nuggets and admit I was wrong about them.
Last December, I explained why I didn’t think Denver could win a title.
The most important change since the 3-point shot revolutionized basketball in 2011 is the need for two-way players...
When a player can’t defend at an average level, they will be hunted and forced to defend until they get pulled from the game. These teams won’t win a title because their biggest strength is also their biggest weakness.
As good as the Nuggets are on offense, Jokic is not a good defender and needs to be surrounded by stout, physical defenders. While they made a great trade to get Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, KCP has a very specific skill set that only works against smaller guards. The problem is their core stars — Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr. — are all defensive liabilities. This team will never win a game by defending, so they always have to be on fire from the outside.
Look at the superstars who have won titles since the three-point revolution. Here is a list of NBA Finals MVPs over the last decade.
- LeBron James (4 times)
- Kawhi Leonard (2 times)
- Kevin Durant (2 times)
- Andre Iguodala
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Stephen Curry
Somehow, I forgot about Curry.
They surrounded him with great two-way players. Remember the original Death lineup? Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, and Harrison Barnes could all defend, shoot, and run the floor.
When they upgraded Barnes with Kevin Durant, the NBA turned into the National Boredom Association. Everyone knew who was going to win the title before the first day of the season started.
While I’m not saying the Nuggets are as good as the Warriors, they followed the same model. Jokic is a generational offensive talent, but he needed teammates who could play on both ends of the floor.
The Denver Nuggets rebuilt their team to beat their biggest rival.
In 2020, Denver reached the Western Conference Finals (WCF) with their core of Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr. (MPJ).
They had an amazing run in the playoffs until they got destroyed by their nemesis, the embodiment of evil.
Well, that’s a little harsh. It’s not like the Nuggets ever faced the Boston Celtics in a playoff series.
I won’t name the team, because the name transforms coach Michael Malone into Mickey Mouse Malone, well-known internet troll, claiming his team is an underdog because they don’t get enough media attention.
Denver’s fans and local media homers suffer from selective amnesia when it comes to the critical lesson Denver learned three years ago. All they do in response to hearing the name of that other team is punch walls, push NBA conspiracy theories, and blame the refs for the series’ 139–142 free-throw disadvantage.
But their new general manager did pay attention in the fall of 2020.
Calvin Booth was the one person who saw the cold hard truth of the 2020 playoffs and did something about it. He became the NBA’s Captain Ahab in his pursuit of the Great Purple and Gold Whale. And he succeeded.
Booth saw the 3–1 deficit against Utah when Donovan Mitchell destroyed his guards. Then he saw the 3–1 deficit against the Clippers when Kawhi Leonard destroyed his primary wing defenders. They won those series with the offensive brilliance of Jokic and Murray, but the flaws were clear.
In the WCF, he saw the cracks in his team exposed by LeBron James and Anthony Davis, a throttling defense, and their fearsome transition offense.
Booth rebuilt Denver’s roster to beat the champions in three steps:
1. Booth figured out that Aaron Gordon is as good a guy as you will find to defend the best wing players in the league.
2. Denver needed defense, speed, and floor spacing at the shooting guard position. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (KCP) is one of the best in the league at chasing guards around screens. It is a critical skill needed to defend elite shooters like Stephen Curry and Damian Lillard.
3. Denver lacked physicality and two-way play off the bench. Bruce Brown was a huge improvement over Monte Morris. He dominated smaller guards by crashing the offensive boards and attacking in transition. Jeff Green was another huge upgrade. He is athletic, and stretch big who can defend, space the floor, and attack the offensive boards
The combined speed and athleticism of Gordon, KCP, and Brown were critical in transforming Denver’s transition game. In 2020, they were in the bottom 10; in this year’s playoffs, they are #3 in PPP and #5 in points.
Think of Denver’s 2020 rotation players and where they are now: Paul Millsap, Gary Harris, Monte Morris, Torrey Craig, Mason Plumlee, and PJ Dozier. Jeremy Grant was the only guy who could stay on the floor that year, but he wanted out of Denver.
That’s all thanks to Calvin Booth.
And don’t forget about the job Michael Malone and the coaching staff did to improve their three stars.
Up until 2020, Jamal Murray seemed to model his career after James Harden — at least as a defender. Traffic cones might have provided more of an obstacle to the basket.
This year, Murray became a responsible team defender who tries even when targeted by the opposing team’s stars. As a big, strong guard (6'4", 215 lb), it is much harder to punish him on defense, the way other teams target guys like Trae Young.
MPJ changed from the guy who wanted to be a star to the guy who wants to star in his role. In 2020, his minutes got cut in each series because he was such a huge defensive liability.
- Round 1 vs Utah, Game 1 (31:11), Game 7 (17:05)
- Round 2 vs the Clippers, Game 1 (23:21), Game 7 (14:47)
- WCF, Game 1 (28:59), Game 5 (17:07)
MPJ’s improvement in defense and on the boards keeps him in games to kill teams with his three-point shooting.
In 2023, his minutes increased as games became more critical. (Note: Games 5 and 6 against Phoenix were blowouts, so he didn’t play in the fourth quarter.)
- Round 1 vs Minnesota, Game 1 (31:11), Game 5 (38:55)
- Round 2 vs Phoenix, Game 1 (30:51), Game 4 (40:49)
- WCF, Game 1 (34:33), Game 5 (40:57)
But the final piece of the puzzle has been Jokic’s improved conditioning.
I don’t know how it happened, but it was a shock to see Jokic beat Anthony Davis down the floor in transition over and over again in a game last January.
At the time, I didn’t understand what I was seeing and thought it was a physical problem with Davis.
Instead, this year’s WCF revealed the truth.
The Nuggets finally stuck gold because they ran those Purple and Gold Devils off the court.
In that five-game 2020 WCF series, that unnamed opponent was +31 in transition points, an advantage of 6.2 points per game.
In 2023, Denver not only neutralized their nemesis’ transition game but ended up +9 in fast break points that killed rallies or extended leads.
At the crucial start of the WCF, Denver was +6 in fast break points in Game 1 and won by 6. Then Denver came back from double-digit deficits to win Game 2 by 5. They finished with +1 in fast break points because LeBron James missed two layups and an uncontested dunk.
In 2023, Denver ended with 2.25 points per game advantage or a turnaround of 8.45 points per game.
The average margin of victory in the WCF was 6 points per game.
Enjoy the Finals!
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