Week 17 NFL picks against the spread
It’s all about motivation in Week 17 with many teams already on holiday, but the Colts should roll in a de facto playoff game
Merry Christmas, happy Hanukkah, great Kwanzaa to all, and a Festivus for the rest of us. Holiday football is here, and the NFL playoffs are just around the corner. We finally made it to Week 17, and almost everything is still up for grabs. Only three playoff spots are still available as we’re down to 15 teams for 12 spots, but only two of those seeds are totally locked in.
That means it’s all about motivation again, and that fared well for us last week with our best week of the season at 11–3–2 including 3–0 best bets. Some of these teams badly need a win or they risk ending their season prematurely, while other teams have already packed it in and are ready to hibernate. Some teams are a risk for resting their usual starters too, while every game on the schedule is a division rivalry so that adds a little extra layer of motivation.
It’s the last weekend of the regular season, and it’s all on the line. So check those playoff scenarios for each team and let’s make some picks.
Stay far away, these are effectively preseason games
Note: we always have stay-aways, but stay far away from these games. They’re completely meaningless for both teams so you’re effectively betting on preseason football. We’ll make picks but won’t bet any of them.
Miami +3.5 at Buffalo
The Dolphins have won seven games this season, all by one score. They beat Buffalo by four a month ago, and the last three seasons this rivalry has been a sweep. Miami is the better team despite the injuries, so we’ll take the points.
Carolina +9 at New Orleans
Quick, who will lead this game in passing yards? It won’t be Cam Newton on injured reserve, and it surely won’t be Drew Brees who has no reason to play more than a series in this game. It won’t be Taylor Heinecke either, who got injured in his first start for Carolina leaving Texas A&M rookie Kyle Allen to make his first start in Week 17. He’ll probably be up against Vikings castoff folk hero Teddy Bridgewater. Nine points is too much for an exhibition game.
New York Giants -6 vs Dallas
The Cowboys are locked into the 4-seed and have to play next week, so they have every incentive to sit the starters and rest up. Is Dallas actually good? They have only one win by more than one score, and the Giants have had the best NFC East profile since the season’s midpoint. Eli Manning has done just enough to keep his job yet one more year, and another win should put them out of range of a top draft pick for a replacement QB anyway.
Tampa Bay PK vs Atlanta
Jameis Winston is another QB who may keep his job a year longer than expected. Since he took the job back six games ago, Winston has completed 65% of his passes for an impressive 7.9 yards per attempt with 9 TDs and only 3 interceptions. He’s done a much better job taking care of the ball lately, and that’s the real key with Jameis. A strong finish in Week 17 could help both him and head coach Dirk Koetter keep their jobs.
Green Bay -7 vs Detroit
If you must bet one of these throwaway games, make it this one. I said last week that Aaron Rodgers is awesome in meaningless games and then he had the best fantasy playoff game by a QB in NFL history. Rodgers sports a career 37–6 TD-INT ratio against the Lions, and Detroit has played nine straight games without crossing the 20-point barrier. Maybe a big Packers win in the finale will help Joe Philbin keep his new job. Fingers crossed.
Three heavy favorites, three bad opponents
Pittsburgh -14 vs Cincinnati
The Steelers need a win and a Baltimore loss to sneak into the playoffs after losing their season over the last month. They’re obviously far better than the Bengals and have beaten them 10 of 11 times, but you’ve gotta pick your preferred narrative here. Does Pittsburgh collapse one last time against a bad team, failing to show up and ultimately costing Mike Tomlin his job? Or do the Steelers blow the doors off Cincinnati and show us all what they can do, the proverbial team no one wants to play and then doesn’t have to because they’re sitting at home? I’m going with the latter in a home game against a defense that has allowed 29 ppg since the bye week.
Seattle -13.5 vs Arizona
These teams both have a little something at stake. Seattle should be the 5-seed and headed to Dallas, but a loss combined with a Minnesota win sends them to Chicago instead, and Seattle may want to avoid that nasty weather and pass rush. Arizona should be happy to comply, since the Cardinals lock in their first #1 pick in the modern era with a loss. Remember how Byron Leftwich was supposed to fix this offense? The Cards are averaging 13.6 ppg with him as offensive coordinator, and this is now the third-worst offense in NFL history. Seattle’s tough enough at home they have a real shot at #1.
New York Jets +14 at New England
I continue to not believe in the Patriots, but they have six wins by 12+ points and are 7–0 at home, and a win here gets them yet another bye week and at least one home playoff game. Remember when this was a decent rivalry? It’s not anymore. New England has won five straight against the Jets and 13 of 15. So why take the Jets? Because Sam Darnold has been surprisingly solid since returning from injury, completing 66% of his passes for 7.9 YPA with 6 TDs and only 1 pick, and the Jets have played four straight one-score games, mostly against decent teams like the Texans, Titans, and Packers. New England never blows a game like this, but the Jets could keep it close.
The huge win-or-go-home toss-ups
Cleveland +6.5 at Baltimore
This is low-key my favorite game of the weekend. The Browns and Ravens are more than just division rivals — Baltimore is the team that stole the Browns from Cleveland, so these teams hate each other. The Ravens clinch the division with a win, and you know the Browns would love to end their season instead. It’s also a chance for Cleveland to go above .500 (8–7–1!) for the first time since 2014 and finish a season over .500 for only the third time this century. Make no mistake about it: both teams want this one. And both teams are playing really good football. Lamar Jackson’s Ravens are 5–1 with defense and a run-heavy offense that slows the game down and controls possession. The Browns are 5–2 since the coaching makeover with losses to only the Chiefs and Texans, and they have one of the league’s hottest offenses. Both teams rank in the top four DVOA teams the last six weeks. Cleveland has been a top five run defense during that stretch, so this will be the toughest test Lamar Jackson has faced. I think the Browns keep it interesting, and they’re +225 outright if you think they win it.
Houston -6.5 vs Jacksonville
Remember when the Jaguars started 3–1? They’re 2–9 since, scoring 14.3 ppg. Houston has dominated Jacksonville this decade, winning 12 of 16, and the games aren’t usually close, with only two of those 16 under a six-point margin. Houston needs this win badly, even though they’re technically already a playoff team. They could still get a bye if New England stumbles, but a win at least secures a home game while a loss drops them to the 2-seed and puts them on the road next week. Teams that desperate find a way against Blake Bortles, Cody Kessler, or any other turd Jacksonville throws out there.
Philadelphia -6 at Washington
I’ve been picking against both of these teams over the last month, but the Eagles have earned their way out of the dumpster. They’re 4–1 over the last month and have played the Cowboys, Rams, and Texans to a draw in their last three games as the offense has found its rhythm. Their passing defense is still getting shredded, but Washington has yet to score more than 16 points with Josh Johnson and are 1–5 since Alex Smith got hurt, so they may not be able to take advantage. All the 7–8 Redskins have going for them now is sheer momentum toward a seemingly inevitable .500 finish, but even that isn’t enough as the defending Super Bowl champs try for one last run.
Chicago +6.5 at Minnesota
Vikings fans keep checking all week for news of the Bears resting their starters this weekend, but I’m not sure it’s going to happen. Chicago has a lot of motivation to win. A win gives them a shot at the 2-seed. That means a bye week and keeping the rematch against the Rams at home, so they have to go all out for it, even if it’s unlikely because it requires L.A. to lose at home to the 49ers. But it’s not just that. Lose in Minnesota this week and these Vikings come to visit next weekend. If Chicago knocks Minnesota off, they may get Nick Foles and all of Philadelphia’s eighth-string cornerbacks instead. That’s a far better matchup for Chicago and also means avoiding facing a division rival for an always-difficult third time and knocking them out instead. I think Chicago wants this game. The Bears are good — all four of their losses are pretty fluky — and the Vikings are 0–5 against current playoff teams and weren’t competitive in any of them. That includes one against these Bears in which they were thoroughly dominated. As a Vikings fan, I am very worried.
Week 17 best bets
Denver +6.5 vs Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers still theoretically have a shot at the AFC 1-seed, but that’s only if the Chiefs somehow choke at home against the Raiders. Kansas City could be way up by halftime and it would be easy to see the Chargers calling off the dogs and resting up for a likely game next week. Denver is always tough at home. They played an absolute murderer’s row in Colorado this year (Rams, Chiefs, Texans, Steelers, Seahawks, Browns, and now Chargers) but kept all seven to one-score games, and the Broncos have beaten the Chargers five times in a row in Denver. The Broncos are +250 to win outright.
Kansas City -13.5 vs Oakland
Don’t think too hard on this one. The Chiefs still have the best offense in football, the Raiders still suck, and Kansas City needs this to secure the 1-seed, a bye week, and home field throughout the AFC playoffs. The Chiefs have won 9 of 11 against the Raiders, including five in K.C., and Oakland has lost by this margin eight times already this season. The sad news is this is the last time we can pick against Oakland this season; the good news is Jon Gruden’s still got another nine years and $90 million to go.
Los Angeles Rams -9.5 vs San Francisco
Somehow Vegas hasn’t caught on yet to the fact that nobody’s teams can front-run like Sean McVay’s Rams. Los Angeles blew out all the bad teams last year and they’ve continued that trend this year. Against Oakland, Arizona (twice), and these 49ers, they’ve won by 20, 22, 29, and 34, and they still need to win this one to secure a bye week and make sure the Chicago rematch happens in the L.A. warmth. They won’t mess around.
Indianapolis -3 at Tennessee
This is a playoff game, with the winner getting the 6-seed, or even the 2-, 3-, or 4-seed if early results go their way. And we’re going all in on Indianapolis. They’re just better than the Titans at … everything, really. The Titans defense has been better at home but inconsistent, while the Colts have been tough of late. The Colts offense is far better with a balanced attack led by a power run game and an MVP-caliber Andrew Luck. Luck is 10–0 lifetime against the Titans, and he is a massive advantage over a banged-up Marcus Mariota or his backup Blaine Gabbert. The Colts beat Tennessee 38–10 six weeks ago, and honestly, it wasn’t even that close. It’s always good to have Luck on your side, but it’s even better to be the far better team. Let’s lock in one final 2018 pick.
Week 16 record: 11–3–2 Season record: 120–110–10 Best bets: 24–23–3 Locks: 5–0
Last season: 130–116–11 Best bets: 29–20–1 Locks: 2–1
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