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Bay</h2><p id="5bef">It doesn’t feel like the Bucs are a touchdown worse than the Cowboys at first, but dig a little deeper. Jameis Winston has lost 11 straight road starts, and Dallas really needs to win this game to clinch the division and seal its playoff berth. Amari Cooper has 31 catches for 531 yards and 6 TDs at home as a Cowboy, and Tampa’s secondary has leaked all season.</p><h2 id="b669">Minnesota -5 at Detroit</h2><p id="6fb2">All the talk this week has been about Minnesota’s offense, but this pick is all about their defense. The Vikings defense has been as good as anyone over the past couple months, and Detroit’s offense has gone missing during that same stretch. They haven’t broken 22 points in eight games, averaging under 16ppg in that span. Minnesota typically struggles in Detroit and these games have been close of late, but 13 of 17 years this century have been season sweeps in this rivalry, and Minnesota already won the first one.</p><h2 id="9dfa">New York Giants +9.5 at Indianapolis</h2><p id="688a">Both of these teams played in a Week 15 shutout, and that apparently shifted this line a full four or five points in Indy’s direction. The Colts played their best game of the season, shutting out the Cowboys. The Giants had been playing pretty well before getting shutout in a rainstorm in which neither team could do much on offense. Regression to the mean is a real thing, so let’s bet on both teams moving in the opposite of last week.</p><h2 id="ebeb">Jacksonville +5 at Miami</h2><p id="f7a0">Jacksonville started 3–1 before a 1–9 stretch. Cody Kessler rushed for 68 yards last week but that was 11 more than his passing yards. This poor Jaguars defense deserves better, and heck, even Florida deserves better than this ugly matchup, and that’s saying a lot. Take the under-38.5 and take the points because neither of these teams may even hit five points.</p><h2 id="1a87">San Francisco +5 vs Chicago</h2><p id="5913">This is the trappiest of trap games for the Bears after two huge emotional wins against the Rams and Packers. San Francisco continues to fight hard all season, and Kyle Shanahan continues to take no-name guys like Nick Mullens and George Kittle and turn them into offensive stars. The 49ers are 4–3 at home and just beat the Broncos and Seahawks when both badly needed a win to stay in the playoff hunt. Chicago is basically locked into the 3-seed, so a shock loss here wouldn’t even be so bad so they can rest Week 17.</p><div id="d74e" class="link-block"> <a href="https://readmedium.com/best-worst-player-2018-19-nba-season-ranking-basketball-stars-and-second-bananas-cd8473917502"> <div> <div> <h2>Which NBA team has the worst best player?</h2> <div><h3>Ranking the star and second banana on each NBA team — and why it really matters</h3></div> <div><p></p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/1*3vd6tmlkGY71n8FIoNQqXA.jpeg)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><h1 id="db87">Everything on the line for both teams</h1><h2 id="d150">Tennessee -9 vs Washington (Saturday)</h2><p id="3157">Both of these teams are still in the wildcard hunt, and both are all but eliminated with a loss. This line is a shocker, even with Josh Johnson coming to town. It feels like Vegas is practically begging us to take Washington. But Tennessee is 5–1 at home, and four of their last five wins have been by two touchdowns or more. When they do win, they tend to take care of business.</p><h2 id="2ff9">Baltimore +4.5 at Los Angeles Chargers (Saturday)</h2><p id="3fab">The Ravens are one-of-a-kind in 2018. They’re 4–1 under Lamar Jackson with just an overtime loss to the Chiefs against them. Baltimore plays its signature defense, pounds the run game, keeps the opposing offense off the field, limits possessions, and keeps it close. They let the other team beat itself. And while the Chargers are the hot team, their last three wins have all been won late, and they have no real home field advantage. They’ve also allowed eight rushing TDs over the past five weeks, most of any team.</p><h2 id="b92f">Pittsburgh +6 at New Orleans</h2><p id="0ed0">This game means a lot for both, but it may mean a lot more for Pittsburgh. The Saints just need one win to clinch the 1-seed and they now host Carolina’s Taylor Heinicke in Week 17, so this one’s no longer so important. The Steelers wi

Options

ll either have a chance to clinch the division if the Ravens lose, or they’ll risk losing control of the division if Baltimore wins. New Orleans is winning these days with defense, not offense. They’ve held six straight opponents to 17 or less, but it’d be a shock if that number hits seven. Pittsburgh will keep it close. The Steelers have lost by more than one score just twice in their last 40 games. This feels like a classic that will come down to the final possession.</p><h2 id="9e9a">Kansas City -2.5 at Seattle</h2><p id="9085">These old division rivals cap off Sunday evening in a game in which every fantasy championship America will be on the line. All the talk about this game is Kansas City struggling on the road and Seattle dominating at home. Chiefs road games have averaged 73 points, so take the over, but I’m still taking these Chiefs at every opportunity. Their three losses are all last second, by three, three, and one, and I know they can move the ball on Seattle. The Seahawks are only 2–5 this season against teams still alive in the playoff hunt. The Chiefs may have a chance to clinch the 1-seed, if the Chargers fall Saturday, and this is the last hurdle in their way. It’s either win on the road now or risk doing it three times from the 5-seed.</p><div id="1f85" class="link-block"> <a href="https://readmedium.com/unpacking-2018-nfl-playoff-picture-scenarios-775c3367b835"> <div> <div> <h2>Unpacking the NFL playoff picture with 3 weeks to go</h2> <div><h3>23 teams can still make the playoffs! Every team’s path and the most likely scenarios…</h3></div> <div><p></p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/1*XgB-Sjd4ZuwQgvxLijnnDw.gif)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><h1 id="79e5">Week 16 best bets</h1><h2 id="3bf8">Houston +1.5 at Philadelphia</h2><p id="0440">This line opened at 3.5 and I waited and hoped for it to drop below a field goal because now it’s pretty much a straight-up pick and I love the Texans here. Philadelphia beat the Rams last week, but it felt like the Rams beat themselves. This Eagles secondary is still starting guys off the street, and if you’re unfortunate enough to be facing DeAndre Hopkins in your fantasy league championship, I feel sorry for you. Hopkins could repeat last week’s monster game, and the Texans defense should end this terrible Nick Foles narrative. Houston is two wins against backup QBs (Cody Kessler in Week 17) away from a first-round bye. They won’t blow this.</p><h2 id="f2e6">Los Angeles Rams -13.5 at Arizona</h2><p id="abac">Part of the reason the Bears are stuck at the 3-seed is that the Rams are still a game up with only the Cardinals and 49ers left on the schedule. The Rams are 4–0 this season against the Raiders, Cards, Niners, and Lions with a +97 differential in those games, and Sean McVay is 3–0 against Arizona with a 99–16 margin in those games. If there’s one thing we know about the Rams, it’s that they absolutely crush the bad teams, and oh my is Arizona bad.</p><h2 id="df58">New England -11.5 vs Buffalo</h2><p id="ef1b">Tom Brady is 29–3 against Buffalo, and one of those three losses was a meaningless Week 17 start. Buffalo has only one healthy running back and he’s masquerading as a quarterback. Rookie QBs are something like oh-and-a-million in New England against Bill Belichick, and Belichick’s even better coming off a loss. This might be the Tebow game all over again.</p><h2 id="8618">Week 15 record: 8–7–1 Season record: 109–107–8 Best bets: 21–23–3 Locks: 5–0</h2><h2 id="4a3f">Last season: 130–116–11 Best bets: 29–20–1 Locks: 2–1</h2><p id="53a2"><i>Follow Brandon on Medium or <a href="https://twitter.com/wheatonbrando">@wheatonbrando</a> for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s <a href="https://readmedium.com/brandon-anderson-writing-archives-6b3ee1a29301#.6cteu050v">writing archives here</a>.</i></p><figure id="3b76"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*YnbtD8IipCsqVjNwkjtY8w.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure id="2ba5"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*d318hSQDEA-NP2sgKkTINw.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure id="0963"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*jwbMPAfFsxT_PGFz7US69Q.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure></article></body>

Week 16 NFL picks against the spread

Christmas brings 5 huge NFL showdowns, and motivation means everything. Let’s hope these picks don’t turn to coal.

It’s been a long football season, and by Week 16, many NFL teams are just ready for a long winter’s nap. A week ago, 23 teams still had a real path to the playoffs. That number is down to 17 now, and it’ll dwindle even further by the time Santa comes down your chimney on Christmas morning.

‘Tis the season to pay attention to motivation. Some games feature two teams that have already packed it in. Some have teams readying for the playoffs, but one has more seeding at stake than the other. And the biggest potential comes in games where one team has plenty to gain and the other has nothing to lose. Motivation is key, and it will be our key deciding factor in any close call.

It’s Christmastime, and you need some last minute spare change to fill up your stockings with gifts. Let’s hope these picks don’t turn into coal.

Nothing but draft order at stake here

Atlanta -3 at Carolina

The Panthers technically aren’t out yet, but they’re all but drawing dead at this point and they know it, putting Cam Newton on the IR with only the craziest scenarios remaining. That puts Old Dominion’s Taylor Heinecke in line for his first ever real stint in the NFL, he of just three career completions. Atlanta has won five of the last six against Carolina anyway, and Matt Ryan should light up a poor secondary while the Panthers are a one-man offense.

Cleveland -8 vs Cincinnati

The Browns may already be eliminated by Sunday since a win by either Tennessee or Baltimore on Saturday eliminates them. But this is about more than a playoff hunt for Cleveland. The Browns are playing for pride and for their future. Few offenses are as hot as Baker Mayfield’s, and Cleveland has won four of five. Winning the last two may not get them to the playoffs, but it could get them over .500 for the first time since 2014.

Green Bay +1 at New York Jets

Yes, you read that line right — Aaron Rodgers is a road underdog against the New York Football Jets. Fear not! Rodgers isn’t going to finish the season 0–8 on the road, the Packers are 4–2 against teams already out of the playoff race, and Aaron Rodgers is awesome in meaningless games. Hooray!

Denver -2.5 at Oakland (Monday)

Poor Denver can’t seem to close games, but they’ve either won or lost by one score in all but one game this season. Oakland’s three wins are on fluky last-second field goals, and they can lock in a top-two pick with a loss since they head to Kansas City in Week 17. This game is Christmas Eve, and ESPN lost the lottery. If you’re still waiting for someone in this game to win your fantasy championship, you’ve already lost. Turn it off and spend the night with family.

These games matter for only one team

Dallas -6.5 vs Tampa Bay

It doesn’t feel like the Bucs are a touchdown worse than the Cowboys at first, but dig a little deeper. Jameis Winston has lost 11 straight road starts, and Dallas really needs to win this game to clinch the division and seal its playoff berth. Amari Cooper has 31 catches for 531 yards and 6 TDs at home as a Cowboy, and Tampa’s secondary has leaked all season.

Minnesota -5 at Detroit

All the talk this week has been about Minnesota’s offense, but this pick is all about their defense. The Vikings defense has been as good as anyone over the past couple months, and Detroit’s offense has gone missing during that same stretch. They haven’t broken 22 points in eight games, averaging under 16ppg in that span. Minnesota typically struggles in Detroit and these games have been close of late, but 13 of 17 years this century have been season sweeps in this rivalry, and Minnesota already won the first one.

New York Giants +9.5 at Indianapolis

Both of these teams played in a Week 15 shutout, and that apparently shifted this line a full four or five points in Indy’s direction. The Colts played their best game of the season, shutting out the Cowboys. The Giants had been playing pretty well before getting shutout in a rainstorm in which neither team could do much on offense. Regression to the mean is a real thing, so let’s bet on both teams moving in the opposite of last week.

Jacksonville +5 at Miami

Jacksonville started 3–1 before a 1–9 stretch. Cody Kessler rushed for 68 yards last week but that was 11 more than his passing yards. This poor Jaguars defense deserves better, and heck, even Florida deserves better than this ugly matchup, and that’s saying a lot. Take the under-38.5 and take the points because neither of these teams may even hit five points.

San Francisco +5 vs Chicago

This is the trappiest of trap games for the Bears after two huge emotional wins against the Rams and Packers. San Francisco continues to fight hard all season, and Kyle Shanahan continues to take no-name guys like Nick Mullens and George Kittle and turn them into offensive stars. The 49ers are 4–3 at home and just beat the Broncos and Seahawks when both badly needed a win to stay in the playoff hunt. Chicago is basically locked into the 3-seed, so a shock loss here wouldn’t even be so bad so they can rest Week 17.

Everything on the line for both teams

Tennessee -9 vs Washington (Saturday)

Both of these teams are still in the wildcard hunt, and both are all but eliminated with a loss. This line is a shocker, even with Josh Johnson coming to town. It feels like Vegas is practically begging us to take Washington. But Tennessee is 5–1 at home, and four of their last five wins have been by two touchdowns or more. When they do win, they tend to take care of business.

Baltimore +4.5 at Los Angeles Chargers (Saturday)

The Ravens are one-of-a-kind in 2018. They’re 4–1 under Lamar Jackson with just an overtime loss to the Chiefs against them. Baltimore plays its signature defense, pounds the run game, keeps the opposing offense off the field, limits possessions, and keeps it close. They let the other team beat itself. And while the Chargers are the hot team, their last three wins have all been won late, and they have no real home field advantage. They’ve also allowed eight rushing TDs over the past five weeks, most of any team.

Pittsburgh +6 at New Orleans

This game means a lot for both, but it may mean a lot more for Pittsburgh. The Saints just need one win to clinch the 1-seed and they now host Carolina’s Taylor Heinicke in Week 17, so this one’s no longer so important. The Steelers will either have a chance to clinch the division if the Ravens lose, or they’ll risk losing control of the division if Baltimore wins. New Orleans is winning these days with defense, not offense. They’ve held six straight opponents to 17 or less, but it’d be a shock if that number hits seven. Pittsburgh will keep it close. The Steelers have lost by more than one score just twice in their last 40 games. This feels like a classic that will come down to the final possession.

Kansas City -2.5 at Seattle

These old division rivals cap off Sunday evening in a game in which every fantasy championship America will be on the line. All the talk about this game is Kansas City struggling on the road and Seattle dominating at home. Chiefs road games have averaged 73 points, so take the over, but I’m still taking these Chiefs at every opportunity. Their three losses are all last second, by three, three, and one, and I know they can move the ball on Seattle. The Seahawks are only 2–5 this season against teams still alive in the playoff hunt. The Chiefs may have a chance to clinch the 1-seed, if the Chargers fall Saturday, and this is the last hurdle in their way. It’s either win on the road now or risk doing it three times from the 5-seed.

Week 16 best bets

Houston +1.5 at Philadelphia

This line opened at 3.5 and I waited and hoped for it to drop below a field goal because now it’s pretty much a straight-up pick and I love the Texans here. Philadelphia beat the Rams last week, but it felt like the Rams beat themselves. This Eagles secondary is still starting guys off the street, and if you’re unfortunate enough to be facing DeAndre Hopkins in your fantasy league championship, I feel sorry for you. Hopkins could repeat last week’s monster game, and the Texans defense should end this terrible Nick Foles narrative. Houston is two wins against backup QBs (Cody Kessler in Week 17) away from a first-round bye. They won’t blow this.

Los Angeles Rams -13.5 at Arizona

Part of the reason the Bears are stuck at the 3-seed is that the Rams are still a game up with only the Cardinals and 49ers left on the schedule. The Rams are 4–0 this season against the Raiders, Cards, Niners, and Lions with a +97 differential in those games, and Sean McVay is 3–0 against Arizona with a 99–16 margin in those games. If there’s one thing we know about the Rams, it’s that they absolutely crush the bad teams, and oh my is Arizona bad.

New England -11.5 vs Buffalo

Tom Brady is 29–3 against Buffalo, and one of those three losses was a meaningless Week 17 start. Buffalo has only one healthy running back and he’s masquerading as a quarterback. Rookie QBs are something like oh-and-a-million in New England against Bill Belichick, and Belichick’s even better coming off a loss. This might be the Tebow game all over again.

Week 15 record: 8–7–1 Season record: 109–107–8 Best bets: 21–23–3 Locks: 5–0

Last season: 130–116–11 Best bets: 29–20–1 Locks: 2–1

Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.

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