We Watched It So You Didn’t Have To: Detroit Pistons vs Sacramento Kings
Justin Jackson outshines Stanley Johnson, and Blake-Drummond isn’t working for two teams going nowhere fast
The Detroit Pistons visited the Sacramento Kings Monday night in a game between two teams that aren’t tanking, but you’d never know it by the quality of play. The Kings were missing Bogdan Bogdanovic, who may already be their best player, and the Pistons are still short Reggie Jackson. Both teams should be playing their youth and positioning themselves for the draft. It was a slow, choppy game without much offense, but the Pistons went on a 15–2 run late to run away with it, 106–90.
Watching this game was a labor of love, but every game is a data point and there’s always something to learn. Let’s draw some conclusions, with the usual caveats on one-game samples…
1. Justin Jackson looks like the better young SF than Stanley Johnson
For one night, Justin Jackson looked like the most promising young player on the Kings. Whether that’s a good thing or not can be argued, but he appears to be miles ahead of his starting small forward counterpart, Stanley Johnson.
Jackson plays with confidence, a noticeable improvement from early in the season. He plays like a guy who is comfortable in the offense now, who knows what he is allowed to do when the ball comes his way. Jackson frequently caught the ball, took one dribble, and stepped into a clean, crisp shot. He’s comfortable creating space for himself and finding a good look, something we saw from him for years at UNC. Jackson also made some nice cuts off the ball, particularly noticeable in a game without much off-ball movement. He finished with 15 points and four rebounds on 7-for-9 shooting, most of it within the normal flow of offense.
Stanley Johnson is developing, but there still isn’t much there outside of a great body and defensive ability. He scored 11 but was too willing of a shooter for as bad as he is offensively. He shot 3-for-8 and looked bad anytime he wasn’t going straight up with the shot (and bad some of those times, too). The three steals are nice, but Johnson feels like a poor man’s Andre Roberson right now, and he doesn’t offer enough defensive value to offset his lack of offense and spacing. With so weak a shot, Johnson needs to get better cutting off the ball, setting a screen, moving around, something, and it’s not happening yet.
It’s important to remember that, even though Jackson is the rookie, Johnson is the younger player. He’ll turn 22 in May, while Jackson turns 23 next week. That’s a positive for Johnson. But it also means he’s already spent three years in the NBA and has precious little development to show for it. Jackson has shown more development in this one season alone.
Jackson shot 43% pre-All-Star Break. That number rose to 47% in February and 54% in March, and his offensive rating over the same span jumped from 98 to 111 to 115. As Jackson gets more consistent playing time, his numbers are improving. In eight games with 30+ minutes, he’s putting up a 12/4/2 line shooting 51% from the field and 39% from deep with a 122 offensive rating. That’s not much of a sample, but it’s good nonetheless.
Both Jackson and Johnson average 11/5/2 per 36. Johnson has better steal numbers but a far worse handle and almost three times as many turnovers, a worrying sign for someone not handling much. But the biggest difference is the shooting. Jackson is only 30% from downtown, but Johnson is under 30% for his career and has seen that number dip each year. And it’s not just threes. Jackson is a strong finisher near the hoop and has a useful 41% mid-range shot he’s comfortable stepping into. Johnson’s shot is broken everywhere. He’s shooting 27.8% from 3-to-10 feet for his career! Anything not at the rim is a bad shot for Johnson, and he’s only 61.5% there anyway compared to 75.7% for Jackson.
I like Stanley Johnson, and he’s still young and has time to figure things out. But while his youth is an asset, it also means he’s shown a slow development rate and has only one year left on his rookie deal. Justin Jackson still has three years on his and looks like a cheap wing that would be a useful rotation player on most teams. He doesn’t hurt the team anywhere and he’s improved a lot in one season. There’s little question which player is the better asset at this point.
2. Despite the good numbers, it doesn’t feel like this Blake Griffin — Andre Drummond pairing is working.
If you just check the box score on this game, you’ll see a 26/9/7 line for Blake Griffin plus 16 rebounds for Andre Drummond and figure this duo is working out pretty well. Watching the game tells a different story.
Griffin is a very different player from the Clipper you remember. He’s not going to be jumping over Kias again anytime soon, and his game has evolved (devolved?) significantly since his younger, more athletic days. These days Blake looks and plays a lot more like Carmelo Anthony or, dare I say it, Tobias Harris. He gets a lot of touches at the perimeter and hunts that jump shot he worked so hard to develop early in his career.
Griffin does some post-up posturing but doesn’t look to do much with it there, and the biggest reason his numbers looked nice this game was because his jumper got hot. But even with the jumper falling, I’m not sure the offense is very good with it. Griffin gets the ball at the top of the arc and you can just tell the shot is going up — and so can his teammates, who sort of stop moving and let it happen.
The athletic explosion isn’t there for Griffin anymore, and it feels like he’s playing at like 75% most of the time. His game has a faint whiff of old man Arvydas Sabonis to it. That’s a compliment to Blake’s passing ability and big-man mobility, but that’s not the guy you want to owe $142 million. The seven assists in the box score surprised me. I wanted more Point Blake and didn’t see a ton of play making, though it’s not like he has many guys he can create for.
Drummond posted 16 rebounds but had just four points and two assists. He feels pointless on offense at times and badly needs better point guard play so he can at least set a useful screen. Where is the Blake-Drummond pick-and-roll like Griffin and DeAndre Jordan ran in Los Angeles? Right now Drummond just clogs the paint, which makes it harder for Griffin to operate there and makes Stanley Johnson’s lack of shooting a bigger problem.
And sure, Drummond is out there to rebound and play defense more than score, but he only has so much value on defense. On the ball, he’s terrific and had a few blocks, but you don’t need much on-ball defense against the Kings. Off the ball, Drummond’s presence is enough of a threat to deter some drives, but he gets lost in space on the pick-and-roll and doesn’t react quickly enough, and it’s a problem if that’s true even against Sacramento.
Detroit is still on the hook for $223 million to Griffin and Drummond. The two will eat up over half of the Pistons’ cap for the next three years. This is their team, and they’ve made their bed. Blake thinks “the ceiling of this team is very, very high” but the lack of chemistry on either end tells a different story.
3. These two teams aren’t just going nowhere. They found it, set up shop, and built a foundation there.
Which of these franchises is in worse shape going forward?
The Pistons have more talent. Griffin is not what he once was but is still a good offensive player. He’s also averaged 54 games a season the last four years and is on one of the league’s richest contracts with quickly fading athleticism, and he’ll be 33 when the contract ends. Drummond is a starting center, but is he a max player? Reggie Jackson is expensive and always hurt. The team owes $124 million to him, Langston Galloway, Josh Smith (!!), and Jon Leuer over the next three years. Detroit has no wings in sight, hasn’t developed their recent draft picks, and doesn’t own its lottery pick this year anyway.
The Kings are in far better cap shape even with the wasted veteran space, though a lot of good it does them if no one wants to sign there. They only have $30 million committed to 2019 so far, all rookie deals and a lot of young talent. But what’s actually there among all that talent? How many NBA starters are on this roster? Bogdan Bogdanovic is the closest thing. De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield could get there, but they project to low-end starters for now. There’s no blue chipper in the bunch. The Kings do own their draft pick this year but have stupidly won enough games that they’d currently pick 6th. They’re probably going to have a 15 or 20% chance at a top-3 pick for a roster that desperately needs a star, and they don’t own their pick next year.
These teams are painful to watch. This game was the professional equivalent of UMBC versus Kansas State. There’s no shooting on either team, no off-ball movement. This is a scary look at what the NBA could devolve into for some teams, with players just sort of taking turns on offense and lots of “open” jumpers but not in rhythm and not by good shooters.
The Kings made only six threes and four free throws. They took more mid-range shots than threes, and the game was only as close as it was because they shot 15-for-24 there. This is the fifth or sixth full Kings game I’ve watched this year, and it reeks of a team that just has no plan or idea what it’s doing. There’s no offensive game plan, no defense to be found, no clear rotation. The Kings played a ten-man rotation Monday night (even without Bogdanovic), and they started a guy (Z-Bo) who finished tenth in minutes with 15. The lineup and rotations are different every night.
Which front office would you prefer? You’d figure anyone but the Kings, but don’t forget Detroit just drafted Luke Kennard, Henry Ellenson, and Stanley Johnson ahead of Donovan Mitchell, Myles Turner, and Devin Booker, and they gave up a draft pick and a valuable young player on a good contract for the chance to swallow Griffin’s heinous deal.
These teams are hurting, and there’s no reason to think that changes for either franchise anytime soon.
10 other parting shots…
- The lack of Detroit fouls and Sacramento free throws is telling for both sides. Detroit didn’t pick up its first foul until the 16th minute, and the Kings were an abysmal 4-for-9 from the line. Detroit isn’t aggressive enough on defense, and the Kings don’t attack much on offense. The few fouls Detroit did get were mostly on lazy reaches.
- Buddy Hield had the best Kings line of the night at 20/6/4. He got the start with Bogdanovic out and hunted his shot early and often. He can create a bit now, but the Sacto color team seems more sold on his passing than I am. Buddy is passing more, but he isn’t passing it particularly well, with four turnovers on ugly plays where nothing was there and he sort of just threw it up. Twenty points is nice, but this was just a gunner taking jump shots. One free throw on 15 field goal attempts doesn’t get the job done. Reggie Bullock was a nice contrast. He scored 17 points naturally within the flow of the offense, and he didn’t force much.
- Skal Labissiere is coming along. His body is more NBA-ready and he’s seeking his shot more confidently now. He filled up the box score with 10 points, five boards, two blocks, an assist, and a steal. He’s improved his dribbling and is becoming a better scorer. It’s laughable that the Kings considered waiving him midseason. He may have the highest upside of any Sacramento player.
- De’Aaron Fox has a nice floater when he gets into space, and he’s far more effective when he’s attacking aggressively. That’s tough to do with the lack of spacing and talent on this Kings team. He’s more quick than fast, an easy contrast next to Ish Smith. He finished with a solid 16/3/4 line on 8-for-11 shooting, but a lot of his scoring came in garbage time.
- What is the point of Zach Randolph on the Kings? Z-Bo is posting Blake up and popping contested threes, and he has no shot on defense. Why is he playing? Why is he even on the roster? Maybe it’s a stealth tanking move, but I’m not willing to give the Kings that much credit.
- Willie Cauley-Stein is a really nice interior passer. He continues to get far too many touches for this team, but five assists is nice. He’s at 2.3 per game on the season and has improved a lot there.
- Vince Carter looks old and out of shape, and you can hardly blame him on this roster. Still, he passed Patrick Ewing for 22nd all time on the NBA scoring list and is coming up on 25,000 points so that’s pretty cool, even if this feels a bit like Hakeem Olajuwon on the Raptors.
- Luke Kennard seemed to run point for the backup offense, despite playing with Dwight Buycks. He didn’t have any assists or show much spark, but it’s a positive sign for his development getting to handle early on.
- The Kings baby blue City Edition jerseys look great. The Pistons’ look like they’re trying to be the Grizzlies, which is fitting enough considering they’ve set up their roster accordingly, too.
- Not all games deserve 10 parting shots.
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