We Watched It So You Didn’t Have To: Washington Wizards vs Milwaukee Bucks
Giannis is Freaking, Jabari is back (?), and Bradley Beal is young Ray Allen
The Washington Wizards visited the Milwaukee Bucks Tuesday night in a possible Eastern playoff preview. The Wizards took a big lead early, then hung on late as the Bucks came roaring back but fell short, 107–104.
The Wizards jumped out 14–0 and led by around 20 much of the half. Milwaukee cut into the lead with a big third quarter and got within a point several times late, with three chances in the final minute to tie or take the lead that came up short. The Bucks never led, and Washington stole a road game that felt like they were outplayed for the final 44 minutes.
The Bucks are still finding their way under interim coach Joe Prunty, and the Wizards are still missing John Wall, though they’re an impressive 10–3 now without him. Neither of these teams is the version we’ll see if they meet in April, but there’s plenty to learn from any matchup. Let’s draw some conclusions, with the usual caveats on one-game samples…
1. Giannis is a stud… but he still has a ways to go
It’s always a joy to watch Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Watch an entire Bucks game and there will be at least five plays when your eyes pop out and you grab for the rewind button to see what just happened. It feels like Giannis surprises himself sometimes. It just seems like he’s a foot longer than everyone else sometimes. He does things you’ve never seen a human do before.
Giannis is most dangerous in transition, where he’s just about unstoppable unless the entire defense gets back and clogs the paint. He scored on a 1-on-3 without even even slowing down. Later, he took the ball away on defense and went into one-man-fast-break mode. From just inside half court, he took one dribble and a couple Giannis Steps (these are not Euro steps anymore) to beat Washington 1-on-4 for a score. That’s what makes Antetokounmpo’s defense so valuable. Anytime he forces a turnover, it’s also the start of a one-man fast break for one of the best “offensive sets” in the league. He’s just as dangerous in transition defense. You know LeBron’s chase down-blocks? Giannis doesn’t even really need to chase guys down. He just stays close and reaches.
Antetokounmpo still brings the ball up and runs the offense quite a bit, even with Bledsoe. The jumper still isn’t there. He did make one confident three early that looked good but never attempted another. Washington’s defensive game plan was clear: play back, clog the lanes with multiple players, throw Porter and Oubre’s length at Giannis, and just don’t let him get momentum into the paint. Giannis finished with 23 points, 13 boards, and 8 assists, but it genuinely felt like Washington was pretty successful defending him. The most success Antetokounmpo had in half-court offense was when he got into the post, where he was already closer to the basket and could score or hit the dive man as soon as the help defense came.
Antetokounmpo is overwhelming on defense. Those go-go-Gadget arms are just unfair. He had three steals and six blocks, and those numbers feel low. His length causes all sorts of problems. Giannis is so long he can be a half step out of place and guys think they have space, and he just sticks his arms out and surprises everyone. His length is starting to have that Gobert effect too, where guys hesitate if he’s even anywhere near them. There’s a little more big-play flash than constant defensive force, but he’s a real problem.
Two obvious comparisons for Giannis are Ben Simmons and early LeBron, and thinking about either leaves you wanting something more from Giannis.
With Simmons, it’s the way Philadelphia uses him and the type of talent they’ve surrounded him with. Philly surrounds Simmons with shooters, so when he drives and the help comes, he can always see and kick to an open shooter. Milwaukee just doesn’t have much gravity. Giannis not being able to shoot wouldn’t be as big of a problem if he had more shooting around him. The other thing with Simmons is how he switches between one and four on offense. Giannis has a more nebulous role, but you come away wondering why the Bucks don’t ever try this guy out at the four or five for stretches. He’s deadly in the post, and there’s no one on Washington that would’ve given him any problems defensively. Simmons has a role that fits him because he has a roster that fits him. With Antetokounmpo, the next two most talented players on the roster (Bledsoe and Parker) don’t fit right. That’s a problem.
The comparisons to early LeBron are obvious. They’re both unholy in transition. Neither can shoot, and smart defenses are going to do to Giannis what they did to LeBron — pack the paint and force him to shoot over top or give it to his teammates. And there’s the post thing. It always felt like LeBron could be dangerous in the post but he didn’t really want to go there early in his career. That’s a part of Antetokounmpo’s game he should develop to give him another option when Point Giannis isn’t working against a packed paint. Early LeBron had some of the same team construction problems too.
It’s crazy — it feels like Antetokounmpo was relatively quiet outside of a handful of big defensive plays and some transition buckets, and he finished with a 23/13/8/3/6, only the fifth time in history someone reached those totals. He just turned 23. He’s coming. Actually, he’s already here.
2. Jabari Parker is finally back… kind of
This was Parker’s ninth game since returning from ACL repair, and it was his best statistical game of the season. He finished with 19 points and 5 boards on 6-of-10 shooting, taking over the game for a stretch in the second quarter.
The offensive talent is obvious, especially since Parker played most of his minutes against the bench. He’s a deadly scorer in isolation and that’s clearly the role he feels most comfortable in, attacking as soon as he gets the ball. He isn’t creating much for others right now — just seven assists all season — but he can find his own offense every time. Parker’s jump shot is looking good, a big improvement from early in his career. He shot 25.5% on threes his first two seasons before 36.5% last year, and he’s at 42.9% in limited attempts this season. The offensive ability is undeniable.
Still, I couldn’t escape feeling like something seemed off. Parker just does not look explosive or athletic right now. His run looks a bit awkward, and it feels like his vertical is really lacking. He had no chance a couple times on rebounds or near the rim. That quick first step in attack is there, but it felt like you took a good player from the 80s and dropped him onto a court in 2018, with a game and athleticism that feels like it might not quite cut the mustard in today’s game.
The Players Only guys kept commenting on how Parker’s explosion was back, but I didn’t see it. The smoothness and balance is there, but that’s not an explosive athlete right now. Of course, the Players Only guys also called him “one of [their] all-time favorite Dukies,” and that’s pretty rich for a guy that played 35 games and lost in the first round to Mercer. Come on, Grant Hill.
Parker seems like a problem defensively, and not the good kind. He was routinely beat off the dribble, and he plays flat-footed in defense, on his heels instead of his toes. During that second-quarter stretch when Parker scored a bulk of his points, Washington attacked him mercilessly on defense, going at him any time they could get someone switched onto him.
Parker is 6'8" but it didn’t feel like it Tuesday night. He felt more like a big two than a wing or a four. Maybe the athleticism is still finding its way back, but his game doesn’t fit well with Antetokounmpo and Middleton, and the coaches seem to know it. That trio had only played ten minutes together all season before trying it for a few minutes Tuesday. Parker’s value is highest with the ball in his hands looking to score, and that’s not just something Milwaukee needs much of unless it’s off the bench.
It’s hard to see where Jabari Parker fits this team build long-term. It’ll be interesting to see what contract he gets this summer, because it seems like he could be a feature scorer for another team that fits him better.
3. Washington’s guards were the difference
The Wizards starting back court was the reason Washington won this game, even without John Wall.
Bradley Beal is really, really good. He had 21 points, 7 boards, and 8 assists, and he was steady throughout. Beal is strong and has a more confident dribble now, and his creation ability has come a long ways. He has good vision and can create some for others, an ability that’s grown further with Wall on the sidelines, and he has a nifty side-dribble drop step that allows him to create space for himself and get his shot off any time he wants.
Beal is only 24, and he might be the best offensive shooting guard in the league. He’s not the elite shooter that Klay Thompson is (or the defender), but he’s much more rounded and offers advantages in creation, rebounding, strength, and athleticism.
Beal reminds me of a young Ray Allen, and I fear younger readers may not understand how much of a compliment that is. Old Ray Allen was a dead-eye shooter who ran around screens all game and shot open jumpers. He was awesome. But Young Ray Allen was a superstar. He was strong with the ball, scored when he wanted, and hit shots from anywhere. He was the best player on a team that came within a game of the Finals, and he’s a surefire Hall of Famer. Here’s Beal and Allen at age 24:
Allen is a slightly better three-point shooter. But Beal matches strengths in rebounding and getting the the line, and he’s already a better creator and a more efficient scorer. Bradley Beal is awesome, and he’s still getting better.
Still, the Wizards are being overlooked because of the Wall injury, and it might be time to give Tomas Satoransky some credit. The young Czech has stepped into the starting point guard role with ease. He’s good at cutting into the lane, keeping the play alive, and making a jump pass or finding someone left open by an undisciplined defense.
I watched Satoransky play at EuroBasket this summer and didn’t even think he looked like an NBA player. His basketball IQ has come a long way, and he’s cut the turnovers and taken control of the offense. He has 42 assists and 8 turnovers in the past six games, and he’s really calmed this offense and created good looks for the Washington wings.
Satoransky was excellent early against Milwaukee but got into foul trouble, and Washington went away from him most of the second half. It almost cost them the game. Satoransky was a team high +11, and that felt accurate. They were better when he played. He had only eight points and six assists in 20 minutes, but he’s a steadying hand for an offense that needed it with Wall out. Washington has finally found their backup point guard.
Parting shots…
- The coaching contrast was stark. Washington played like a well-oiled team that had a clear plan on both ends. They ran effective sets on offense and had a good game plan against Antetokounmpo. Milwaukee looked lost for much of the game on defense, with a simple cut or drive undoing them. They played like a group of individuals, and on offense it felt too often like the plan was just “Do something, Giannis.” That was especially stark in the game’s final minute. Milwaukee got the ball back down two with 26 seconds and took more than 20 seconds to get a shot off, and that was just a Giannis iso. Down three with a second left, they didn’t even get a shot off. Milwaukee has more talent (especially with Wall out), but team continuity and coaching won it for Washington.
- In my recent midseason NBA survey, most of the panelists picked the Bucks as the fourth East team to win a playoff series. These Bucks do not look like a team that will win a playoff unless Giannis does it himself. They look more like a team that will be undone in a seven-game series with coaching adjustments and teams focusing on Antetokounmpo.
- This was the Otto-est of Otto Porter games. I was surprised to see Porter leading all scorers at halftime with 17 points, considering I’d barely noticed him. He did have a stretch where he punished Jabari Parker, and he hit a couple threes early. Porter finished with… 17 points. He shot 7-of-18. Porter flashes for a few minutes each game, but $100-million players can’t go missing for an entire half. He played solid defense on Antetokounmpo, but Washington needs more consistency from Porter.
- Sterling Brown caught my eye. He’s a true 3-and-D guy right now, but he’s athletic and explosive and uses his length well on defense. He had a big cut dunk (pictured) and was a team-best +8 in 14 minutes, a bit Kelly Oubre-esque. He looks like another second-round steal for the Bucks. With so many wings on both sides, it feels like Brown is only like 10 or 20% worse than Porter, but Porter is paid 30 times as much. That’s a problem.
- Eric Bledsoe is still a real pest defensively, and he did well switching off Washington’s non-threat point guards to impact the defense elsewhere. But his offensive role is very confused. He scored 17 but shot 6-of-15 and is too often relegated as a spot-up shooter. It feels like Malcolm Brogdon is a better fit for his offense next to Giannis, and he didn’t cost a first- and second-round pick. It’s a big problem that Milwaukee’s second- and third-most talented players don’t fit well next to their superstar.
- Khris Middleton feels like Milwaukee’s second-most important player. He works hard and plays in the flow of the offense, and he can dribble and create some and has a solid all around game on both ends. Just a good player any team could use.
- Thon Maker looks lost. He’s stronger now but still gets pushed around out there, and the basketball IQ just hasn’t showed up yet. He’s out of position on rebounds and defensively and is going to get killed in the playoffs.
- You could really feel the spacing difference. Washington was always a half-step back packing the paint, unafraid of Milwaukee’s shooters. The Wizards had all sorts of room on their end, effectively spacing out Milwaukee’s length to create space and shots. All that space made Satoransky’s dribble penetration more effective, and Milwaukee was beaten far too easily by one simple offensive set.
- The Bucks are really pesky with their hands and length on defense, but it feels like the defense should be better overall. They play better individual on-ball defense than team D, and there’s just not a center on this roster that can anchor a good defense.
- I’m not a huge fan of the Players Only thing — are we including WNBA players in the broadcast or is this a step backward for women in hoops media? — but Brent Barry is really good at this. He added a lot of insight and balanced the conversation well, and I think he’d fit on any broadcast team. And unlike Dennis Scott, he doesn’t feel the need to shout “Players Only!!” every three sentences.
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