NBA Midseason Experts Survey: How Will the Rest of the Season Play Out?
23 NBA experts from around the internet weigh in to help us know what to watch for down the NBA home stretch
The All-Star Break is gone, and only a quick foray into March Madness separates us from the NBA playoffs. So with every team back in action heading into the weekend and about 25 games left for each squad, it was time to check in on where things are headed.
Can anyone threaten James Harden for MVP? Is Ben Simmons still the Rookie of the Year front runner? What teams miss the playoffs in tight East and West battles? What teams outside of the Warriors, Rockets, Raptors, Celtics, and Cavs make the second round? And is this revamped Cavs team ready to make a run, or will #WeTheNorth finally have their Finals moment?
We gathered a collection of 23 of the finest NBA writers to get the pulse of the NBA with 25 games left, with voters from Bleacher Report to The Stepien to Vice to The Athletic to, uh, Twitter. Here’s what our experts thought, with some rather surprising results…
Who is your Rookie of the Year right now?
1. Ben Simmons (100) 2. Donovan Mitchell (81) 3. Jayson Tatum (14) 4. Kyle Kuzma (5) 5. Lauri Markkanen (4)
This is the conversation du jour with new slam dunk champion Spida Mitchell blowing up in February to lead the Jazz to ten straight wins into the break. What once seemed a foregone conclusion is now very much a two-man race.
Simmons received 16 first-place votes to only six for Mitchell, so he still has a decent lead for now. The duo finished top-two on every ballot but one, but voters were more vocal for Simmons: “He’s putting up all-around numbers we’ve never seen a player his age put up before. And he’s helping to lead a much-improved 76ers squad.” Others point to Simmons’s defense and overall basketball IQ, and one panelist noted that Simmons not looking like a rookie is just another vote in his favor.
It could come down to team success. If only one of Simmons or Mitchell makes the playoffs, it will be hard for voters to pass over the one playing meaningful April games.
Tatum has fallen off after a blazing start but still got a vote on 14 of the 23 three-man ballots, an impressive 61%. Are we sure it’s better to be the second-best player on a borderline playoff team than third-best on one of the league’s top teams?
Who is your NBA MVP right now?
1. James Harden (230) 2. LeBron James (97) 3. Steph Curry (63) 4. Kevin Durant (59) 5. Giannis Antetokounmpo (50) 6. DeMar DeRozan (21) 7. Russell Westbrook (11) Also receiving votes: Kyrie Irving, Jimmy Butler, Anthony Davis, Chris Paul, Damian Lillard
Not much debate about the MVP leader. Harden was first on every single ballot. We finally found something the entire internet agrees on. Three voters didn’t even list anyone else on their five-man ballot, and few bothered to make the case for the Beard since it’s so obvious. There’s not even a clear runner-up with a chance to dethrone Harden. The MVP question itself isn’t interesting right now, but two through five on the ballot is.
LeBron is the closest we’ve got to a runner-up, a role which apparently suits him. James was on every ballot but one, and he was 2nd on almost half of them. We could see a torrid finish for King James, and he could lead the league in second-half assists with the lack of playmakers around him. But Cleveland would have to go on a real run. They’re six wins behind the Celtics, seven behind Toronto, and ten behind Golden State and Houston. The Cavs aren’t even on pace to win 50 games. They’d probably need to win something like 20 of their final 25 for LeBron to have any real shot at the MVP.
Giannis Antetokounmpo was on the next most ballots, appearing on 70% of them, but over half his votes were 4th or 5th. A couple voters expressed the sentiment that this may be the year Greek Freak gets into the conversation before he’s truly in contention next year. I was one of two voters to place Giannis 2nd. He’s done more than LeBron especially on defense, done it more consistently, and carried a worse roster to only two fewer wins.
The most interesting names were the Warriors. Curry was on 65% of the ballots, with Durant on 55% of them. Seven voters included both Steph and KD, six listed only Curry, four chose only Durant, and three left the Warriors off the ballot altogether. On the ballots that included both, Steph was higher on four with KD higher on three, and all seven such ballots listed the two back-to-back. We have no idea which Warriors superstar gets more credit.
Voters didn’t seem to have the same problem with James Harden and Chris Paul, with CP3 picking up only one stray 5th-place vote. You wonder if that could change if Harden misses another stretch and Paul plays well in his absence.
The only other MVP candidate to get a top-three vote was DeMar DeRozan, who was actually 2nd on two ballots. DeRozan is the best player (?) on the best team (?) in the East. Is he being overlooked?
Westbrook doesn’t appear to have any realistic chance to repeat, but the numbers could keep him in the mix at the bottom of the ballot. Looks like the Kyrie Irving momentum is completely gone. He only showed up on three ballots. Jimmy Butler followed shortly thereafter. He’s been stellar, but it looks like his ceiling is the bottom of a few ballots.
Not much love for Anthony Davis, who got only two votes. I was one of them and had him 3rd at one point. Davis has carried the Pelicans’ broken roster all season. If he gets New Orleans to the playoffs, he deserves some love. Starting to get a faint whiff of Minnesota KG in Anthony Davis, and no one needs that.
Blazers, Clippers, Jazz, Nuggets, Pelicans, Spurs, Thunder, Wolves — which two miss the playoffs?
Clippers 19 Pelicans 16 Jazz 8 Blazers 2 Nuggets 1
This turned out to be a runaway. All but four panelists have the Clips missing the playoffs, just too many injuries and new players to integrate. The Pelicans are the other big loser. Almost 70% had New Orleans missing the playoffs, assuming the Boogie injury is just too much to overcome.
The Jazz were a surprising third pick to miss the playoffs on over a third of the ballots. Utah’s won ten in a row, but we’ll see if they can stay healthy and find enough scoring. Our panel thinks two of the Jazz, Pels, and Clips will miss the playoffs.
Blazers, Clippers, Jazz, Nuggets, Pelicans, Spurs, Thunder, Wolves — which two win a playoff series?
Thunder 18 Spurs 11 Wolves 8 Nuggets 3 Blazers 2
If the Warriors and Rockets win their first-round series, that means two more West teams win a series, presumably in the 3–6 and 4–5 matchups. All but four panelists think the Thunder will be one of them. It took OKC awhile, but they’re jelling now and our experts don’t seem too worried about the Andre Roberson injury.
The Spurs and Wolves are a toss-up for the other spot, though a few Spurs votes probably go Minnesota’s way right now, since almost everyone voted before the bizarre Kawhi Leonard update. San Antonio has been the 3-seed all season, but they’re only 2.5 games from the 7-seed. They could slip and leave OKC and Minnesota as the front runners.
Only five voters picked someone outside those three teams to win a playoff series, selecting the Blazers and Nuggets. One voter admitted to having “a soft spot for Damian Lillard that usually comes back to haunt [him] at least once a year,” but another believes in the Blazers because “good guard play can steal you games and Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum have that skill set.” No one picked the Jazz, which was a bit surprising as hot as they are.
Bucks, Heat, Pacers, Pistons, Wizards, 76ers — which one will miss the playoffs?
Pistons 12 Pacers 4 76ers 4 Heat 3
The Pistons get more than half the votes here. A couple voters seemed uneasy about the Reggie Jackson situation. Another thinks the Pistons “ran out of steam after a hot start and, with the major trade, I don’t think they’ll be able to establish things quick enough to make a run.”
Nine of Detroit’s next 12 games come against current playoff teams, and they won’t have Jackson yet for awhile. But nine of their final 13 are against tanking teams, so Detroit could get hot late and steal a spot if they hang around long enough.
The Pacers, Heat, and Sixers each grabbed a few votes to miss the playoffs. Injuries for the former two and age and inexperience for the young Sixers.
Bucks, Heat, Pacers, Pistons, Wizards, 76ers — which one wins a playoff series?
Bucks 14 Wizards 5 76ers 2 Heat 1
The Raptors, Celtics, and Cavs should win as the top three seeds in the East. That leaves just one spot for a fourth Eastern playoff winner, and it’ll likely come from the 4–5 matchup.
The Bucks were a surprisingly strong favorite here, gathering over 60% of voters’ support. “No one wants the actually-being-coached Bucks in the first round,” warned one panelist. Milwaukee will have the best player on the court in any Eastern playoff series that avoids Cleveland, and that was enough for most voters.
A few still believe in the Wizards. Washington’s won eight of ten without Wall and they “have a roster built for the playoffs,” as one panelist noted. But a tough schedule combined with the Wall injury could knock them out of that 4–5 matchup.
I went with the 76ers, the only team in either conference to have multiple voters pick them both to miss the playoffs and to win a series. It’s crazy to pick a team whose two best players are essentially rookies to win a first-round series. But if Philadelphia gets to that 4–5 matchup, they could have the best two players on the court any given night. The Sixers are a matchup nightmare. If we get some combination of Sixers, Bucks, and Wizards playing in that 4–5 matchup, that’ll be the first-round series to watch.
Who will represent the East in the NBA Finals?
Cavs 13 Raptors 9 Celtics 1
This question drew the most defense from voters, and it was not far from a 50–50 split between the Cavs and the Raptors, with everyone off the Boston bandwagon. No one seems sure what to make of this revamped Cleveland roster. Here’s what some of our voters thought:
“[The Cavs] look like a complete team all of a sudden. They rip through the East. 12–2 would not surprise me.”
“We’ve seen [Toronto] dominate the Celtics and old-look Cavaliers this season on the strength of their bench and they have one thing that Boston and Cleveland don’t — roster continuity. This Raptors core has been together multiple seasons and this is their year to break through.”
“I’m pretty dumb, but I’m not dumb enough to pick against LeBron James. After those trades, it’s even more likely. All the pieces fit so much better now.”
“The Cavaliers got younger and more energetic. They added shooting and athleticism to a team with LeBron James, which only fuels the fire and gives them the chance to win a fourth straight Eastern Conference championship.”
“The Toronto Raptors win, which will actually be the preamble for our invasion and annexation of at least like three northern states.”
Survey participants
- Brandon Anderson, @wheatonbrando, Grandstand Staff
- Spencer Davies, @spindavies, Basketball Insiders
- Eric Fawcett, @Efawcett7, Press Basketball
- Jacob Goldstein, @JacobEGoldstein, Nylon Calculus
- Nick Gonzalez, @ByNickGonzalez, Sir Charles in Charge
- Luke Goodman, @ILikeSportsABit, Def Pen Hoops
- Pat Heery, @pheery12, Has Been Sports
- James Holas, @SnottieDrippen, BBall Breakdown
- Austin Hutchinson, @AE_Hutchinson, Locked On Bulls
- Justin Jett, @JustinJett_, Vice Sports
- serge Leshchuk, @sergetacular, Grandstand Staff
- Oliver Maroney, @omaroneynba, Dime Uproxx
- Matt Moore, Hardwood Paroxysm, @hpbasketball, Action Network
- David Morrow, @_DavidMorrow, Def Pen Hoops
- @nbaallaccess
- David Ramil, @dramil13, The Step Back
- Brian Rauf, @brauf33, Chat Sports
- Kelly Scaletta, @KellyScaletta, Bleacher Report
- Duncan Smith, @DuncanSmithNBA, The Athletic
- Keith P. Smith, @KeithSmithNBA, Real GM
- Eric Spyropoulos, @EricSpyrosNBA, 94 Feet Report
- Allana Tachauer, @AllanaTachauer, All U Can Heat
- Christopher Walder, @WalderSports, The Score
- Cole Zwicker, @ColeZwicker, The Stepien
Thank you, thank you to all of the panelists contributing! Please be sure to give them a follow if you haven’t already!
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