Russia-Ukraine War
Update: Prigozhin’s Justice March for Suitcase Nukes?
Fact or fiction: Will we ever know? There are so many unanswered questions
No explanation
Observers have been unable to explain why Yevgeny Prigozhin has been able to make such a fool out of Vladimir Putin without being pushed out of a window. Putin’s chef has been able to travel freely in Russia and Belarus after his march on Moscow stopped at Voronezh on 24th June, amid worldwide amazement.
Kompromat
What hold did he — or does he- have over Putin?I first speculated about the kompromat just two days after Prigozhin’s so-called Justice March of June 24. Was the purpose of the march to acquire nuclear weapons? I examined the possibility and some people thought I was nuts.
Ukraine Intelligence
Now it seems that there is some credence to the theory, with Ukraine’s head of military intelligence Kyrylo Budanov telling Reuters that Wagner fighters reached the Russian nuclear base called Voronezh-45 during their mutiny with the intention of acquiring small Soviet-era nuclear devices in order to raise the stakes.
And where is the Wagner force in Russia — it appears to have disappeared, gone AWOL?
This story has all the ingredients of a thriller novel with a plot too incredible for a reader to believe. It just wouldn’t sell, would it? But truth is often stranger than fiction. And sometimes fiction does well, as in The Fourth Protocol.
The speculation today is that the nuclear inventory at Voronezh-45 included suitcase nukes.
Some history
The picture shows a nuclear backpack developed for the US Army, presumably to be toted by US Special Forces.
The USA began production of the B54 Mod 1 SADM began in 1964. The weapon was 12 inches (305 mm) in diameter, 18 inches (457 mm) long, and weighed 58.5 pounds (26.5 kg). It included the warhead, a fuzing and firing system with a mechanical timer, a ferroelectric firing set and a sealed housing. The body was constructed with aluminum forgings and molded fiberglass, and foam-rubber insulation was used between the warhead and case. Dials were illuminated with tritium-phosphor paint for easy night reading. A housing for underwater emplacement was provided that included external controls.
The B54 Mod 2 started production in June 1965. The weapon was the same size as previous mods but now weighed 70 pounds (32 kg).
The yield is estimated to be 10 to 1,000 tons of TNT (42 to 4,184 GJ). (Wikipedia)
But Russia specialised in suitcase nukes intended for use against cities.
The existence and whereabouts of Soviet suitcase nuclear bombs became an increasing subject of debate following the disarray that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union. Namely, major concerns regarding the new government’s overall security and control of its nuclear stockpile came into question on 30 May 1997 when an American congressional delegation sent to Russia met with General Aleksandr Lebed, former Secretary of the Russian Security Council. (Wikipedia)
There was concern at the time because Lebed alleged that several suitcase devices had gone missing (84 out of 250) and that they were so secret that did not appear on any Russian government inventories.
Now, today, we may be facing the reality that some suitcase nukes were stored in the secure nuclear facility at Vornonezh-45 and that the weapons may be under the control of Prigozhin.
Stanislav Lunev, the highest-ranking GRU defector [at that time], claimed that such Russian-made devices exist and described them in more detail. The devices, “identified as RA-115s (or RA-115–01s for submersible weapons)” weigh from fifty to sixty pounds. They can last for many years if wired to an electric source. (Wikipedia ibid.)
Older weapons would need maintenance and component changes, and we don’t know whether Russia has kept them operational — or manufactured new ones.
Backpack or suitcase, it doesn’t really matter does it?
Of course the Ukraine Intelligence Service may well be sowing misinformation, naturally doing anything they can to de-stabilise Russia.
However no-one has yet been able to put forward a theory which ticks as many boxes as the Voronezh-45 nuclear theory.
Dmitry Utkin, callsign ‘Wagner’
This ex-Spetsnaz Lieutenant Colonel is a dark and low-profile nazi partner in crime, co-owner with Prigozhin of the Wagner Group.
With skilled mercenaries under his command he would be capable of planning a snatch operation.
And with his special forces background he will almost certainly be aware of the protocols surrounding the control and use of these specialised nuclear weapons.
We’d know, surely?
If the case held water, so to speak, then the US intelligence services would know. Maybe. And if they were aware of such a unique and terrifying prospect would they tell us?
Would they have even figured out how to handle such an unprecedented situation within Russia’s borders? Would the US State Department/Pentagon have an off-the-shelf plan ready? Probably.
Would Lukashenko, self-proclaimed President of Belarus and Putin’s poodle, know about such a situation? We’ve seen his recent interview in which he appeared to be unsure of Prigozhin’s whereabouts. He seemed to be fairly relaxed, not with the body language of someone under nuclear threat. Would Putin have shared such details with him? I obviously can’t answer that, but I would guess No. Prigozhin’s threat would be a very closely guarded secret.
Occam’s Razor
This principle asserts that the simplest solution to any problem is usually the right one.
So, what is the simplest explanation which answers these questions:
- Why did the Justice March stop at Voronezh?
- What explains Putin’s one week U-turn on Prigozhin’s indictment as a mutineer?
- Why did the FSB return $110 million to Prigozhin?
- What explains Prigozhin’s evident power in the current situation?
- Why is Prigozhin still alive ?
- What explains Prigozhin’s freedom of movement
- Where are the Wagner forces?
- Where is Dmitry Utkin?
- What is Prigozhin getting out of this, given that Valery Gerasimov is still in position?
- Why has Russia now admitted that Putin held talks with Wagner leaders just 5 days after the mutiny, having previously criminalised them?
- And, critically, what does Prigozhin hold over Putin’s head?
Answer that last one you’ve answered them all.
One other question which I can try to answer is ‘Why is the Russian media now engaged in trashing Prigozhin’s reputation? I think that is because Putin has to be doing something to balance the situation in the public eye and that’s something Prigozhin has to accept. Prigozhin and Putin need each other.
What’s your theory that ticks all the boxes?
And now I’m wondering. Maybe all it would take would be for Prigozhin to have the Wagner forces controlling access to Voronezh-45. But that would be visible to satellites, right?
Yes, but only if we got to see the data, unsanitised.
This story will surely run and run.
And run it does!
The only barrier between the Wagner fighters and nuclear weapons, Budanov said, were the doors to the nuclear storage facility. “The doors of the storage were closed and they didn’t get into the technical section,” he said.
Reuters was not able to independently determine if Wagner fighters made it to Voronezh-45. Budanov did not provide evidence for his assertion and he declined to say what discussions, if any, had taken place with the United States and other allies about the incident. He also didn’t say why the fighters subsequently withdrew.
A source close to the Kremlin with military ties corroborated parts of Budanov’s account. A Wagner contingent “managed to get into a zone of special interest, as a result of which the Americans got agitated because nuclear munitions are stored there,” this person said, without elaborating further.
A source in Russian occupied east Ukraine, with knowledge of the matter, said this caused concern in the Kremlin and provided impetus for a hastily negotiated end to the rebellion on the evening of June 24, brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
U.S. officials expressed doubts about this account. In response to a query about whether Wagner forces reached the base and sought to acquire nuclear weapons, White House National Security Council spokesman Adam Hodge said, “We are not able to corroborate this report. We had no indication at any point that nuclear weapons or materials were at risk.”
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