Geopolitics

Russia: Was There A Nuclear Reason Behind Prigozhin’s Justice March?

Unanswered questions abound. I couldn’t understand why Prigozhin was almost smiling as he left Rostov, but now there may be an explanation…

There are so many unanswered questions about the events of 24th June 2023.

There’s been a Twitterstorm about a theory that Prigozhin has acquired a nuclear weapon.

A crazy theory?

Maybe, but can anything be more crazy than what we saw over 23/24 June 2023?

I’ve tried to make sense of all of this and come to a balanced judgement by digging around in the data.

Coup failure or not?

It depends on your point of view.

Prigozhin asserted that it was not an attempted coup, he just wanted to be noticed. His column reached Voronezh. And stopped.

Meanwhile he sat in the command bunker of the Southern Military District in Rostov on Don, 40 metres below ground. General Sergey Kuzovlev, commander of the Southern Military District was with him.

So many unanswered questions.

Why did the Justice March to Moscow stop at Voronezh?

Why did Prigozhin accept the deal to move to Belarus and hand over the Wagnerites, all on the basis of a promise from Putin?

How could Prigozhin be sure that his family would be safe, that he would be safe?

What would make Putin sign up to such a face-losing deal after calling Prigozhin a traitor?

What does he have on Putin, or more simply, what does he have?

Was the Justice March on Moscow a failure for Prigozhin?

Yes, so many questions.

One theory doing the rounds is that Prigozhin has acquired a nuclear weapon.

Was there a plan?

The ‘Justice March’ was several months in the planning according to various reports (gulagi.net in Russian on Telegram), which may or may not be disinformation. Here’s a partial translation from EuromaidanPress:

The Russian human rights group Gulagu.net, which started by investigating torture in Russian prisons and during Russia’s full-blown invasion of Ukraine earned fame for sharing information from Russian insiders, states that PMC Wagner’s armed rebellion was an operation planned since autumn 2022, and that an operation to seize Russian strategic nuclear weapons sites is unfolding.

Euromaidan Press is a Ukrainian organisation.

Borisoglebsk

This small town (about 200 km to the east of Voronezh city) played a part in early 20th century Russian revolutionary politics.

In January 1906, revolutionary Maria Spiridonova assassinated G. N. Luzhenovsky at the Borisoglebsk railway station. After the Bolsheviks came to power in Borisoglebsk in 1918, one of the first concentration camps in Russia for “alien and petty-bourgeois elements” was organized in the town.

Today there is a Russian air force training base near there.

And a warehouse with nuclear weapons.

Where and how could Prigozhin have acquired such a weapon?

In another message, Gulagu.net cites a source as saying that Wagner plans to seize 12 objects of Russia’s nuclear arsenal, claiming that the enigmatic Wagner commander Dmitry Utkin is responsible for this part of the armed coup. — EuromaidanPress ibid.

Advanced detachments of PMC “Wagner” reached the outskirts of Borisoglebsk, Voronezh region, where there is a warehouse with nuclear weapons, also known as “375 object “C”, 12 directorate of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, “Wagnerites” want to seize warehouses with weapons. — Daily News

The image below is purportedly a satellite view of the nuclear weapons storage facility at Voronezh.

Igor Sushko’s assertions have been challenged, so I checked what I could.

I headed over to Google Maps, satellite layer, and this is what came up:

I have not labelled the image, the ‘Voronezh-45’ legend is on the original Google image. You can see it for yourself.

Russian TNW [tactical nuclear weapons] infrastructure

The 12th Chief Directorate of the Ministry of Defence is in charge of Russia’s nuclear weapons. It maintains 12 consolidated storage sites: Olenegorsk-2 (Murmansk Oblast), Vologda-20, Mozhaisk-10, Voronezh-45, Bryansk-18, Byelgorod-22, Saratov-63, the closed city of Tryokhgorny (Chelyabinsk Oblast), the closed city of Lesnoy (Sverdlovsk Oblast), Irkutsk-45, Khabarovsk-47 and Komsomolsk-on-Amur-31. — Riddle.io

Riddle.io is a good read if you are interested in Russia’s nuclear arsenal, disposition and control.

The repair and maintenance bases where nuclear warheads are made combat-ready after their delivery from the arsenal are halfway between the storage site and the troops. Each such base is formally part of a consolidated nuclear storage site, even if it is located hundreds of kilometres away. — Riddle.io ibid.

Fine, so Voronezh-45 is almost certainly a storage facility for tactical nuclear weapons. Whether the weapons are usable — i.e. combat ready — is an unknown for now.

But that would hardly matter. Prigozhin could surely buy the skills to ready the weapons, although for, say, nuclear howitzer shells then the fusing mechanisms might be stored elsewhere and probably be more difficult to get hold of.

What weapons?

These would probably be nuclear artillery shells which are easier to transport, handle and use than other types of nuclear weapon such as rockets. There are several nuclear-capable howitzers and SPGs in the Russian military and Prigozhin would surely have no problem acquiring a suitable piece, for example:

• 152 mm projectile 3BV3 for self-propelled guns 2S19 Msta-S, 2S3 Akatsiya, 2S5 Giatsint-S, towed gun D-20, 2A36 Giatsint-B, and 2A65 Msta-B. The yield was 1 kiloton, maximum range 17.4 km.

I’ve read that these ‘small’ nuclear weapons do not need launch codes. Maybe, maybe not.

According to Wikipedia: At the end of the Cold War, Russia followed the United States lead and deactivated its nuclear artillery units in 1993. By 2000, Russia reported that nearly all nuclear artillery shells and missile warheads had been destroyed.

Nearly all. My bolding.

Who?

With Prigozhin negotiating from the deep command bunker in Rostov-on-Don, who would have headed the raid on the storage facility at Voronezh-45?

Who would be capable of planning and executing the raid?

Who could Prigozhin trust?

Trust may be the wrong word. Parallel self-interest might be more appropriate. And that means it would probably have been Dmitry Utkin, call sign ‘Wagner’ and a beneficial ‘owner’ of Wagner PMC. If anyone has a worse reputation than Prigozhin then this is the guy. He is a Nazi Ukrainian-born Russian army officer who served as a special forces officer (Spetznaz) in the GRU, where he held a rank of lieutenant colonel.

He keeps a low profile. Probably because he is easily recognised:

Execution

Could a Wagnerite special operations group have executed the theft?

They had the resources and the opportunity, but the site is 200 km east of the M4 motorway on which the Wagner column was steaming towards Moscow — and on which all eyes (and Russia aircraft) were focused. A diversion?

There would have been no problem with Utkin’s (?) raiding group passing themselves off as Russian army.

Timescales might have worked if they had been headed that way at the same time as Prigozhin was recording his video at 07:30 on 24 June in Southern District Command HQ.

On paper, I think it would have been do-able, and with very little bloodshed or fighting which would have been visible to satellites. The group could have conned their way in with Utkin knowing all the procedures and protocols given his senior Spetznaz background.

It’s been reported that Washington knew in advance of Prigozhin’s broad intentions, although his speed of action surprised them. Satellites surely would have been tasked to watch Voronezh-45.

American intelligence officials briefed senior military and administration officials on Wednesday that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the mercenary Wagner Group, was preparing to take military action against senior Russian defense officials, according to officials familiar with the matter.

U.S. spy agencies had indications days earlier that Mr. Prigozhin was planning something and worked to refine that material into a finished assessment, officials said.

The information shows that the United States was aware of impending events in Russia, similar to how intelligence agencies had warned in late 2021 that Vladimir V. Putin was planning to invade Ukraine. — New York Times

The US decided not to warn Putin as that might have been seen as interfering in an internal Russian matter.

Such is geopolitics.

If…

If the theory about Prigozhin acquiring a nuclear weapon was anywhere near credible, then surely the US and NATO would know and they would be acting, or ‘outing’ the fact worldwide.

On the other hand, ‘outing’ such a situation would cause a huge level of public concern and calls for intervention and NATO escalation.

If the US knew, would they share it with NATO?

Would NATO keep it quiet?

Could NATO keep it quiet?

Remember, NATO includes Turkey (Erdogan) and Hungary (Orban) who are both somewhat friendly with Putin.

Conclusion

It’s a neat theory and ticks many of the boxes, including that of the key reason why Putin made such an embarrassing 6 hour about-turn after branding Prigozhin a traitor, then exonerating him of crimes (including killing 13 Russian forces personnel and causing the biggest one-day loss of Russian aircraft in many years). It’s been said that Prigozhin agreed to pay 50 million rubles total compensation to the families of those his efficient AA teams had killed.

One thing is for sure, Prigozhin has a very highly-developed sense of self-preservation. Despite what commentators say, I think Putin will not order his execution. Prigozhin has powerful cards up his sleeve, but whether they are nuclear remains to be seen.

I was open-minded when I started writing this story, but now I’m leaning towards disbelief because if it was true then I don’t think NATO would have been able to keep the lid on it. And NATO would surely have known, wouldn't they? Wouldn't they?

But if on the morning of the 23 June you’d told me what the next 24 hours would bring, then I’d have laughed at you.

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