Ukraine War

Ukraine: Where is the Balance?

Yet another heavy Russian attack on Kyiv, the capital city of a sovereign nation, yet ‘the West’ urges Ukraine not to attack targets inside Russia’s recognised borders. A tipping point for me…

Until today, I had believed that the US’s (and probably the EU’s) urging of Ukraine not to attack targets within Russia’s borders was reasonable. They don’t want escalation. Neither do I, but…

…but today I read another report and my view changed.

I don’t know why my view changed. Nothing is really different, the attacks continue unabated and thankfully with relatively little loss of life.

But to use Malcolm Gladwell’s well worn term, I think my subconscious mind reached a ‘tipping point’. The straw that broke the camel’s back.

I think the way had been prepared by the statement of Russian ambassador to the UK which I’d read with my breakfast:

Andrei Kelin, Russia’s ambassador to the UK, told the BBC his country had “enormous resources” and it was yet to “act very seriously”.

His remarks come despite more than a year of fighting and widespread evidence of Russian war crimes.

In the interview with Laura Kuenssberg, he suggested he was offended when challenged about Russia’s conduct.

Speaking exclusively to the BBC, Mr Kelin warned of a “new dimension” in the war.

Insisting Russia “hasn’t just started yet to act very seriously”, the ambassador said “Russia is 16 times bigger than Ukraine. We have enormous resources.”

The length of the conflict, he said, “depends on the efforts in escalation of war that is being undertaken by Nato countries, especially by the UK”.

He added: “Sooner or later, of course, this escalation may get a new dimension which we do not need and we do not want. We can make peace tomorrow.”

It’s apparent to me that Russia is seeking to exhaust Ukraine’s air defence systems with multi-wave attacks of drones and cruise missiles.

But these are not modern day ‘1,000 bomber raids’. The attacks are relatively modest with 30–50 drones/missiles in each attack, which seems to me to be well short of overwhelming. (A record 54 drones on the night 27/28 May 2023).

Is it Russia’s last throw of the dice before the long anticipated Ukraine counter-offensive?

I don’t know and I guess that probably only half a dozen people in the Kremlin know the real answer.

The question is whether the West and Ukraine’s internal resources can replenish the air defence systems more quickly than Russia can build/acquire the drones and cruise missiles.

Of course, Russia really might be preparing the equivalent of a 1,000 bomber raid and the current level of attacks is only designed to build a level of complacency in the Ukraine government and armed forces. Maskirovka perhaps? I doubt it, because Russia would surely have used overwhelming attacks earlier in the war.

I flipped

And so today I finally flipped and took the view that Ukraine should be allowed to attack targets in Russia. Yes, they are in fact already doing so, but only with their own native weapons, not with long range weapons supplied by other countries.

The GRAD is a Soviet era MLRS.

There has been much hand-wringing about the supply of F-16s to Ukraine. It will now happen, just as we saw the same angst-ridden process for Leopard tanks, HIMARS and Patriot missile batteries.

In the US, there is growing pressure for the supply of ATACMS missiles (190 nm range)which can be launched from the HIMARS and MLRS270 platforms that Ukraine already has. But the UK has already supplied — and Ukraine has used — the Storm Shadow air launched cruise missile.

The Storm Shadow is a subsonic cruise missile therefore easier for Russian air defence systems to defeat than the Mach 3 ATACMS would be. Storm Shadow deployment is complex, expensive and risky if this report from Izvestia is accurate:

Russia claimed Ukraine used Storm Shadow missiles to strike industrial sites in Luhansk on 13 May 2023, just two days after their delivery had been announced. According to a report by Russian news outlet Izvestia, the cruise missiles are launched from specially modified Su-24 strike aircraft and fly under the cover of MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters equipped with AGM-88 HARMs. Ukrainian command also uses UAVs and ADM-160 MALD decoys to divert Russian air defenses and protect the aircraft and ordnance from being intercepted. Ukraine’s minister of defense Oleksii Reznikov confirmed the Su-24 as the Ukrainian Air Force’s Storm Shadow launch platform.(Wikipedia) [Note: Lukhansk is within Ukraine’s national borders]

But it has worked.

The range of the Storm Shadow is quoted as 300 nm for the export version (Wikipedia) and that would be capable of a very deep strike into European Russia, even Moscow.

However a reduced capability version complying with Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) restrictions (geo-fenced or terrain limited) was created for export and that may well be what Ukraine has been given. Other sources quote 155 nm — and that’s still a deep strike.

Calibrated response it is usually called. But it’s now…

Time for re-calibration

I’m close to using four letter words here, but for goodness sake, how much longer can Russia be let off the hook for attacking a sovereign country’s capital, a country whose sovereignty they actually signed up to in 1991?

For once I’m glad to say that pressure in the US is building for the supply of ATACMS.

Now is the time to make the positive decision. It will take months to provide the ATACMs (and no doubt extra training will be required). But that supply has to come with a carte blanche for Ukraine. 190 nm range is hardly taking them to Moscow.

If it were done when ’tis done, then ‘twere well It were done quickly

Otherwise we’re probably looking at a long winter and hoping it will not be a nuclear winter.

More context:

If you follow me I guarantee variety in your inbox with some unusual perspectives! I write on a wide range of topics including humor, tech, space, geopolitics and travel, together with daily news events. I also write about…

…tipping points

My novels are available at my Gumroad bookstore. Also at Amazon and Apple