Ukraine War

Russian Logistics: The Nuclear Shield or…

It’s a smart and dirty new tactic in a war that continues to surprise, but what’s behind it and what are the solutions for attacking forces?

This story has been updated at end.

Terrorists embed rocket and mortar launch sites in densely populated areas, knowing that retaliation for their attacks will probably result in civilian casualties. Such collateral casualties generates publicity for their cause and paints the retaliating forces as heartless at best, butchers at worst.

That’s a scenario that Israel has to deal with on a regular basis, and whatever your views about that particular corner of the Mediterranean, the tactic is difficult to address.

Highly responsive counter-battery radars and accurate missiles are available but still we see civilian casualties. Some places are just too dangerous to send troops into and they are too slow anyway, even rapid reaction forces.

Ukraine doesn’t embed its forces in populated areas (as far as I know).

Russia does. Russia doesn’t worry about civilian casualties. They’re only Ukrainians.

But…

The war hasn’t been going at all well for Russia, and since HIMARS and other accurate artillery systems have been acquired by Ukraine the Russian logistics operations have been hit hard.

Russia has been forced to moved its supply dumps further back from the lines of contact and it has learned to reduce the size of the dumps so as to minimise losses when there is a successful Ukrainian strike, often using HIMARS.

And now…

And now we have nuclear shelters for Russian logistics supplies. Instead of siting ammunition dumps in towns, they are building a big one next to nuclear reactors.

Russian troops are turning the Zaporizhzhia NPP into a military logistics base, — Main Intelligence Directorate

Personnel, armored vehicles and trucks, the number of which is constantly increasing, are constantly stationed near power units 1, 2 and 4. The rotation takes place covertly — during the curfew. All trucks are tightly closed. There is information that they may have ammunition and explosives.

In addition, the aggressors do not allow shift workers to enter the territory, who should check the power units at least once or twice a week. Those who tried to fulfill their official duties were beaten and tortured by the Russians. Several Ukrainian nuclear workers are in hospital in serious condition. — United24Media

Russian troops continue to militarize the territory of Zaporizhzhia NPP. [ed: Nuclear Power Plant] Intelligence reports (https://t.me/DIUkraine/2344) that Units 1, 2 and 4 are being used as a logistics and military base. They hide equipment on their sites, the number of which can reach 20 units in one place.

The Russian Stavka knows that Ukraine will not risk attacking the base even using the highly accurate HIMARS, there is just too much risk of a nuclear accident. The risk is not of a nuclear explosion but of a cloud of radioactive dust which would contaminate surrounding areas (depending on wind direction). Russia too, but bugger that.

Strange?

It’s strange that the report says trucks are ‘tightly closed’. This has led me to wonder whether they are bringing in a few nuclear artillery shells in the mix.

We know that Russia has been moving people from the Zaporizhzhia region into Crimea.

Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov says that Russian “evacuation” from the occupied part of Zaporizhzhia region is happening too fast, and huge queues have formed at the Chongar checkpoint on the way from Melitopol to Crimea. — Telegram Live: Ukraine (May 7, 2023)

70,000 women and children was a figure I read. That’s not a lot of people. But maybe the move has another purpose, but that’s another story.

Response?

If Russia is building a (relatively) major base at the Zaporizhzhia NPP, then it is inviting attack. But how?

Ukrainian forces could not use artillery to any great extent. Mortars yes. Tanks perhaps. It would certainly be bitter close range fighting.

The materiel at a supply base is no good unless it can be used to supply locations where it is needed, and those supply lines could be vulnerable to attack. A bit like Crimea. Blockade it.

A key axis

Bakhmut has been an expensive distraction for Russia and the recent incursion by Russian expatriot forces towards Belgorod has been another.

Crimea is the jewel in Putin’s crown, but what would he do to protect it?

The southern land corridor from Russia to Crimea is a key axis. Russia has built heavy defensive lines there.

And Zaphorizhia NPP sits atop the axis, north of Melitopol. It makes sense for Russia to have a supplies concentration close to the axis when it can be ‘sheltered’ by the nuclear plant.

But it seems too obvious that a major thrust from Ukrainian forces would be towards Melitopol and the Sea of Azov, cutting the land bridge.

Ukraine could choose to blockade Crimea.

Speculation

It could be more maskirovka from Russia — the trucks could be empty. Pictures of tyre loads and ground clearance would help, but even then the trucks could be filled with stones.

I don’t know whether nuclear artillery shells emit enough radiation to be detected by drones, but any such radiation could perhaps be masked by ambient radiation from the reactors (but might have a different signature). And I doubt that there would be more than one or two shells anyway.

On the other hand it might suit Russia to have a radiation signature from the trucks, to focus Western minds. The signature could be faked up by a small amount of plutonium. That would be serious maskirovka.

Finally, the site at the power plant is being described as a base. That could mean it would be a relatively safe haven for senior commanders, who are now in short supply.

But what if Russia’s plan is to draw Ukrainian forces in around the NPP and then, if Crimea to the south is becoming seriously threatened or blockaded, use a tactical nuke on the Ukrainian forces and make everyone stop.

Stop. And think, and bluster and rant, and do precisely what?

Sue for peace?

Is Putin mad enough?

I certainly hope not.

Update

‼️ The Russian occupiers are preparing large-scale provocations to create a center of radiation danger, — Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine

In the coming hours, militants are preparing a large-scale provocation to simulate an accident at the Zaporizhzhia NPP.

For this, a strike will be held directly on the territory of the ZNPP. After that, an emergency leak of radioactive substances will be announced. Ukraine will traditionally be blamed for the incident.

In order to hide their actions as much as possible, the Russians disrupted the rotation of the permanent monitoring mission of the IAEA scheduled for today.

The purpose of this action is to provoke the international community to conduct a detailed investigation, during which all hostilities will be stopped. In this way, the Russians hope to get the desired pause, which will be used to regroup the occupation contingent and stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive. — United24Media

About me: If you follow me I guarantee variety in your inbox with some unusual perspectives! I write on a wide range of topics including humor, tech, space, geopolitics and travel. And my novels are techno-thrillers (well, they thrill some people anyway). Why not be a judge?

My novels are available at my Gumroad bookstore. Also at Amazon and Apple