Ukraine War
Ukraine War: Putin’s Centre of Gravity has Moved
It’s no longer outside Russia’ borders, it’s finally in Moscow with infighting in the Russian media — is Putin’s messaging out of control?
Since the failure of the 3 day Special Military Operation in February 2022, the fulcrum of Putin’s messaging strategy has slowly moved and the balance is now very strongly tipped towards the Russian people.
The centre of gravity of Putin’s war is now in Moscow.
He is a worried man, that’s obvious.
“Ukraine is provoking us to mirror actions, let’s see what to do about it,” — Putin on the drone attack on Moscow
A little more nonsense: ▫️2–3 days ago, the Russian Federation attacked the main military intelligence office of Ukraine. ▫️The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation strike the territory of Ukraine, but with high-precision weapons and military facilities. ▫️The territory called Ukraine was controlled by people led by the West. ▫️NATO deceived Russia, promising not to expand to the East, in addition, it tried to attract Ukraine to itself. ▫️We didn’t start this war.
Few sensible people believe this garbage.
And is it really him or a double in the video? His eye contact does not seem like that of the regular Putin.
It reminds me about the old joke (could include Trump):
Q: How do you make a small fortune?
A: Start with a big one.
For Putin, just replace the word ‘fortune’ with ‘army’ — or maybe even ‘military power’?
Putin’s messaging today is only designed to address an internal Russian audience. That’s where his battles are now as sentiment is shifting gradually. Public support is leveling off.
FilterLabs AI uses messages on the Telegram app, posts on social media and discussions on internet forums to track Russian public sentiment on a range of topics. The research has found that public views on war casualties have become increasingly negative since late February 2023.
The company’s approach is quite detailed and it trains its AI almost continuously using native Russian speakers to help detect normal features of colloquial speech and improve the algorithm’s ability to spot nuances of language, such as sarcasm and irony. The system also attempts to identify known sources of propaganda on forums and track them separately.
It’s a process fraught with statistical challenges as respondents to regular surveys are notoriously reticent about their real beliefs. It’s Russia isn’t it?
Research showed that concern over high casualties earlier in the war hit support for Putin. That led to increased propaganda pushes by the Kremlin — as a sailor I call that ‘bilge-pumping’.
But that loss of support was only for a short time, and the Russian public rallied once more behind the government, according to FilterLabs.
We don’t know yet what effect the May 29 drone attack on Moscow will have on public opinion.
Three of the drones shot down were taken out over Moscow’s exclusive Rublyovka suburb. It’s an area of exclusive gated communities situated in the forests west of the capital, the area is home to many of Russia’s business, political and cultural luminaries. They are beginning to realise that the war is real and coming home to them along with thousands of dead.
Bilge-pumping rates have increased as we saw from that Putin interview with a message clearly designed for home consumption. I’m beginning to doubt if he believes it himself.
Stress in the press and an opening gap between the rich and the everyday Ivans.
Solovyov’s rant in the headline picture was against Russian journalists who were writing with elation about the drone attack on the Rublyovka suburb, laughing at the rich budget-robbers who live there.
The balance is tipping and Putin must be very, very nervous and increasingly desperate.
Many analysts believe that the 29 May drone attack on Moscow was a false-flag job and typical of the tactics used to justify the Chechen war. Kill Muscovites to get the Russian public onside.
Now the drone attack can justify a message of going ‘soft nuclear’ with his renewed threat of a ‘dirty’ bomb incident at the Zaporyzhzhia nuclear power plant, as Putin says in the interview below (if it is really him and not a double).
More context: