Ukraine Update 6 February

Closing Ranks, GPS Service, Proof of the Putting

Closing Ranks

Russia has begun to purge the government of employees who have close relatives in Ukraine, including even ex-spouses if the separation happens after 2021. This is done out of fear of disloyalty, although it is covered up with administrative masking to disguise the attempt. Internal security forces run the effort and include many parts of the civil service, such as housing, communal services, and the mayor’s office. They claim that Ukrainian intelligence is putting pressure on these employees by threatening their family members in Ukraine. The already short-staffed civil service is exacerbating the problem by getting rid of experienced employees.

VPN services will be blocked in Russia starting 1 March, although this plan is more of an idea than a reality. Blocking VPN services is incredibly difficult, as they frequently change their IPs. This is being done under the auspices of the “Safe Internet League” program.

The mayor of the Russian city of Kuznetsk, Sergei Zlatogorsky, said today that “those who have not served should not be hired” (into the city government). When jobs are available for the local government, veterans should be prioritized. The mayor himself, of course, has not served.

Russia is removing the word “Ukraine” from textbooks, including the quote from Gogol’s May Night from 1831, a phrase that used to say “the magnificent Ukrainian sky” now reads just “magnificent sky.” Having such a quote might confuse people into believing that Ukraine exists.

GPS Service Outages

GPS outages are recorded all over Europe and the Middle East, with a concentration on the Suvlaki gap in Poland near the temporarily occupied territory of ‘Kaliningrad’.

Losses on the Lines

OSINT estimates that there are 13 Russian losses to 1 Ukrainian in the Avdiivka area. This only accounts for armored vehicles — tanks, IFVs, etc. I will remind readers that OSINT does not track attacks on infantry or fixed positions, and so while these charts do show massive Russian losses, they don’t reflect the number of Russian attacks on Ukrainian fortifications, which are numerous and effective.

The Avdiivka situation is very bad for Ukraine right now, and the city will likely fall in the coming weeks unless something changes on the battlefield. F-16s or a large number of long-range missiles could alter the situation, as could the US passing the support bill in Congress, thus increasing the ammunition supply.

Proof of the Pudding

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. In America, there needs to be a realization that the GOP will not ever support aid for Ukraine. They will talk and talk but never act. Opposing aid on the public stage is a surefire way to lose the elections, but supporting it in public and opposing it in legislation is an attempt to have their cake and eat it, too.

There are seventeen congresspeople in vulnerable districts, three of whom could force the bill through by removing Johnson (MAGA/LA) as the Speaker (or simply threatening to do so).

I hold out some hope that Biden has a plan to get the aid bill passed, but that hope is small. Europe is on its own, and the world is going to be a much worse place for democracy and freedom because of a small subset of American voters who live in their own tiny world.

The long-term costs of this inaction are going to be tremendous for decades to come.

I’m going to work on my novel now.

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