Geopolitics
Ukraine: Chinese Diplomacy Now on The Front Foot?
Zelenskyy and Xi Jinping finally talk after China’s ambassador to France puts his foot in it and walks back
A week in which China had to lean
After a week in which China was forced to walk back the ‘private’ comments of their ambassador to France regarding Ukrainian independence and sovereignty, Zelenskyy has finally had his much requested conversation with Xi Jinping, the Chinese president.
Many had got the impression that China had been avoiding the call for months, but it seems to me that the recent debacle in Paris has changed China’s tune. China was ‘forced’ to re-state what they formally agreed in December 1994, when the country officially recognised Ukraine’s borders — including Crimea — as part of a wider nuclear non-proliferation deal.
China might not be completely off the fence and probably never will be, but their direction of tipping must be obvious to Moscow.
The big conversation
What were the ‘takeaways’ from the long awaited one hour phone call? We’ll never know them all for sure, but here are a few tidbits:
- In a readout of Wednesday’s phone call published on Chinese state media, President Xi was quoted as saying that China, “as a responsible majority country”, would “neither watch the fire from the other side, nor add fuel to the fire, let alone take advantage of the crisis to profit”;[ — a clear dig at the US]
- Xi told Zelensky that China will send a delegation headed by Li Hui, Beijing’s special representative on Eurasian Affairs, as special envoy to Kyiv and “other countries”. The envoy will help conduct “in-depth communication” with all parties involved to “find a political settlement to the Ukraine crisis”, he said. Li was the Chinese ambassador to Russia between 2009 and 2019 and is well known to Putin.
- President Zelensky appointed a former minister, Pavlo Ryabikin, as ambassador to Beijing;
Progress? Perhaps.
Fires?
Xi may be having a dig at the expense of the US and its European allies, but what would be his reaction if the fire was closer to home, perhaps in one of China’s central Asian neighbours which China has been assiduously courting of late? And there’s India and Bhutan — another thorny issue for China.
And let’s not mention Taiwan (although China has never recognised its independence).
Peace plans
Xi is the only leader from a major power to propose a peace plan that both Putin and Zelenskyy have indicated they would consider. The leaders of France, Germany, India and Brazil had also talked to both sides, but none tabled a feasible peace proposal. And the latest French plan had caused anger in Kyiv.
On his official Telegram page, Zelenskyy said about the conversation:
“Particular attention was paid to the ways of possible cooperation to establish a just and sustainable peace for Ukraine. Peace must be just and sustainable, based on the principles of international law and respect for the UN Charter. There can be no peace at the expense of territorial compromises.”
Too little, too late from China?
We are now at a critical stage of the Ukraine War, with a Ukrainian counter-offensive imminent (some say it may already have started) and Moscow Madman #2, Medvedev, threatening an imminent world war in a statement on 25 April 2023.
“The world is sick and quite probably is on the verge of a new world war,” Medvedev, deputy chairman of Putin’s powerful security council, told a conference in Moscow.
Clearly, there are concerns in Moscow that a bloody nose is coming their way.
Many observers believe that China is the only country that can reign-in Putin.
Sticking point
However, the key sticking point to any peace plan will be territory.
Both Ukraine and Russia are adamant that no territory will be ceded in any peace negotiations. They are firmly entrenched and it’s clear that Zelenskyy reminded Xi of Ukraine’s position.
So how could China square that circle?
Here’s what China re-iterated just last week:
On Monday Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning rejected Mr Lu’s [Chinese ambassador to France] position, saying Beijing respected the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries and upheld the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter.
She said that while “the Soviet Union was a federal state and had the status of an entity of international law in its entirety in foreign affairs… this does not deny the fact that each member republic of the Soviet Union has the status of a sovereign state after the dissolution of the Soviet Union”. — BBC
Blowback problems
It seems that while China may now be on the diplomatic front foot, it was clearly as a result of the Paris shitstorm.
Beijing was taken aback by the uproar across Europe triggered by ambassador Lu Shaye’s comments that those countries had “no effective status in international law”, according to people with knowledge of the situation.
Several incumbent and former Chinese diplomats said Lu’s comments during an interview with French news channel LCI last week, amounted to “a diplomatic accident” and had cast China in a bad light. (SCMP)
We live in interesting times — an ancient curse of the Chinese.
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