Ukraine War

Ukraine: China Walks Backwards on Independence

So now Putin clearly knows where China stands — that’s the law of unintended consequences

A couple of days ago I wrote about the furore caused by the Chinese Ambassador to France, Lu Shaye (known as a diplomatic Wolf Warrior advocate).

He said in a TV interview that the legitimacy of former Soviet states as sovereign nations was open to question. Here’s a quick update.

Lu’s comments have caused huge diplomatic indignation.

It is not the first time Lu Shaye, 58, a prominent practitioner of China’s abrasive ‘wolf warrior’ diplomacy, has courted controversy since taking up his post in Paris in 2019.

A transcript of Lu’s remarks posted on the Chinese embassy’s official WeChat account were subsequently deleted. The embassy did not reply to a request for comment. — Reuters

Unintended consequences

Lu Shaye’s ‘private opinions’ on Ukraine’s independence have forced China onto the diplomatic back foot. China has been forced publicly to reaffirm the commitments they made about independent states following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, without any weasel words.

On Monday Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning rejected Mr Lu’s position, saying Beijing respected the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries and upheld the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter.

She said that while “the Soviet Union was a federal state and had the status of an entity of international law in its entirety in foreign affairs… this does not deny the fact that each member republic of the Soviet Union has the status of a sovereign state after the dissolution of the Soviet Union”. — BBC

So now it’s clear that, technically at least and by extension, China must view Putin’s statements about Ukraine’s independence as ultra vires (a fancy phrase for ‘beyond legality’).

Of course we don’t know what China says to Vlad the Meat Grinder in private, or what secret commitments they may have made about weapons, chips and ball bearing supplies, but this re-affirmation will give China less wriggle room in public for the immediate future.

The law

‘Unintended consequences’ is actually a field of academic study.

In 1936, Robert K. Merton listed five possible causes of unanticipated consequences:

• Ignorance, making it impossible to anticipate everything, thereby leading to incomplete analysis.
• Errors in analysis of the problem or following habits that worked in the past but may not apply to the current situation.
• Immediate interests overriding long-term interests.
• Basic values which may require or prohibit certain actions even if the long-term result might be unfavourable (these long-term consequences may eventually cause changes in basic values).
• Self-defeating prophecy, or, the fear of some consequence which drives people to find solutions before the problem occurs, thus the non-occurrence of the problem is not anticipated.

Thanks for that Wikipedia.

I think that Lu Shaye’s comments could be explained by maybe two of those reasons.

Wolf warrior diplomacy?

This approach to diplomacy appears to be popular inside China and reinforces a presumed transition of Chinese diplomacy from conservative, passive, and low-key to assertive, proactive, and high-profile. This runs counter to the traditional perception of Chinese inscrutability.

Wolf Warrior and Wolf Warrior II are Chinese action blockbusters that highlight agents of Chinese special operation forces. They have boosted national pride and patriotism among Chinese viewers.

“Wolf-warrior diplomacy,” named after these movies, describes offensives by Chinese diplomat to defend China’s national interests, often in confrontational ways. (The Diplomat)

Destined for the re-education farm?

The ‘law of unintended consequences’ is sometimes known as ‘Murphy’s Law’. I wonder what the Chinese will call it? Lu’s luck?

Happy retirement Shaye!

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…natural laws

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