avatarJames Marinero, MSc, MBA

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Abstract

r the Central Asian region in preparation of the China-Central Asian summit to be…</h3></div> <div><p>www.silkroadbriefing.com</p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/0*2waNMwlg-cHD9xpN)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><p id="eb07">China has viewed these resources-rich countries as free-floating and is trying to bring them into a central Asian alliance away from the outer reaches of Moscow’s orbit.</p><p id="c0c7">How does that work if their international status is in doubt and they are still seen (at least by some China’s diplomats) as ‘legitimately’ Moscow’s property?</p><h2 id="f101">Caucasus</h2><p id="984f">Add to that the concerns of countries such as Georgia which already has a major beef with Moscow — and no formal diplomatic relations since 2008.</p><div id="25cb" class="link-block"> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia%E2%80%93Russia_relations"> <div> <div> <h2>Georgia-Russia relations - Wikipedia</h2> <div><h3>Georgia-Russia relations are the bilateral ties between Georgia and the Russian Federation. The two countries have had…</h3></div> <div><p>en.wikipedia.org</p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/0*Y41oZ3cpnndj-Dlw)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><p id="04c9">And then we can throw in the complex issue of Nagorno Karabakh in dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan, where Russia has a ‘peacekeeping’ force.</p><h2 id="b806">The European context</h2><p id="9d51">Let’s not forget the fiefdom of Belarus. Lukashenko is widely recognised as Putin’s poodle, and his country as having very little autonomy. It is virtually a part of Russia and follows the Soviet model of a client state with a government still controlled from Moscow.</p><h1 id="eb96">Conclusion</h1><p id="1f78">My conclusion is confusion.</p><p id="499e">Confusion perhaps within Chinese diplomatic policy. Surely not? We’re used to Chinese diplomats all singing from the same atheistic hymn sheet, aren’t we?</p><p id="e06b">There remains the possibility that Lu Shaye was caught out by a clever interviewer. But Paris is a prime diplomatic posting for Chinese officials (or any other diplomat for that matter). They have to be really good to get there. So was he toeing the party line or making up policy on the hoof?</p><p id="7d5d">Will President Macron be re-calibrating his latest peace plan (which already looks to many like a dog’s breakfast)?</p><div id="85a6" class="link-block"> <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/emmanuel-macron-draws-up-fresh-plans-with-china-to-end-russia-s-war-on-ukraine-20230419-p5d1is.html"> <div> <div> <h2>Emmanuel Macron draws up fresh plans with China to end Russia's war on Ukraine</h2> <div><h3>Many nations are also sceptical that China can serve as a neutral intermediary given its "no-limits friendship" with…</h3></div> <div><p>www.smh.com.au</p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/0*-M5Ox0HYdfwlRaf3)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><p id="ddc9">Is this latest statement by a senior Chinese diplomat a new policy agreed during the latest meeting between Xi Jinping and Putin in March 2023?</p><p id="0984">Could they have agreed a geopolitical carve-up?</p><blockquote id="9159"><p>‘OK, Jinping, you have ex-Soviet Central Asia, and I’ll have ex-Soviet western Europe.’</p></blockquote><blockquote id="79e6"><p>‘ Fine, Vlad, let’s drink to that shall we?’</p></blockquote><p id="77e7">There are many precedents, such as the secret Molotov-Ribbentrop pact…</p><div id="890c" class="link-block"> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov-Ribbentrop_Pact"> <div> <div> <h2>Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact - Wikipedia</h2> <div><h3>The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact was a non-aggression pact between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union that enabled those…</h3></div> <div><p>en.wikipedia.org</p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/0*E5cpcTPRXe-I3v8m)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><p id="0623">and</p><div id="e39d" class="link-block"> <a href="https://readmedium.com/yalta-the-conference-that-screwed-europe-2755c0529fac"> <div> <div> <h2>Yalta, the Conference that Screwed Europe</h2> <div><h3>…with a background of pink silk underwear, duplicity and adulterous international affairs, we’re still screwed by it…</h3></div> <div><p>medium.com</p></div> </div> <div>

Options

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          </div>
        </div>
      </a>
    </div><p id="a755">China may not be directly supplying arms to Russia, but its diplomatic power is considerable.</p><p id="e732">But I’m still confused.</p><p id="d581">Except for one thing. Putin has cleverly managed to double the length of Russia’s borders with NATO countries and his hometown of St Petersburg is now hemmed in.</p><p id="7db5"><b>More context:</b></p><div id="c571" class="link-block">
      <a href="https://readmedium.com/the-baltic-is-heating-up-fc6badc11244">
        <div>
          <div>
            <h2>The Baltic Is Heating Up Because of Ukraine</h2>
            <div><h3>It’s global warming of the geopolitical kind as Putin the Great eyes more territory and seeks to rebuild an old and…</h3></div>
            <div><p>medium.com</p></div>
          </div>
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      </a>
    </div><div id="e25b" class="link-block">
      <a href="https://readmedium.com/ukraine-war-will-russia-open-a-second-front-cb33aa4d0854">
        <div>
          <div>
            <h2>Ukraine War: Will Russia Open a Second Front?</h2>
            <div><h3>Hitler did it in World War 2 when he reached stalemate with the United Kingdom, so why not now for Putin?</h3></div>
            <div><p>medium.com</p></div>
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      </a>
    </div><div id="d074" class="link-block">
      <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-ambassador-to-france-says-ex-soviet-states-lack-basis-for-sovereignty-8a46ad7d">
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            <h2>China's Ambassador to France Says Ex-Soviet States Lack Basis for Sovereignty</h2>
            <div><h3>Countries across Eastern Europe condemned remarks by China's ambassador to France claiming that post-Soviet states lack…</h3></div>
            <div><p>www.wsj.com</p></div>
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    </div><h2 id="f37a">Update:</h2><p id="498c">It seems that Lu Shaye was giving his personal opinion. Just like Tucker Carlson did about Donald Trump — but he did it in private.</p><p id="de6c">Methinks that Lu Shaye will soon be headed for a retirement farm in Outer Mongolia.</p><div id="fc5c" class="link-block">
      <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3218202/china-tries-defuse-eu-diplomatic-crisis-after-ambassador-france-questions-ex-soviet-republics?module=lead_hero_story&amp;pgtype=homepage">
        <div>
          <div>
            <h2>China scrambles to defuse EU crisis over envoy's sovereignty claims</h2>
            <div><h3>Lu Shaye's comments when questioned about Ukraine triggered a storm of protest across Europe - especially from the…</h3></div>
            <div><p>www.scmp.com</p></div>
          </div>
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    </div><p id="4657"><i>About me: If you follow me I guarantee variety in your inbox with some unusual perspectives! I write on a wide range of topics including humor, tech, space, geopolitics and travel, together with daily news events and the minutiae of my daily life living on a boat. Yes, I really do live on a boat (some readers don’t believe that). I also write about…</i></p><p id="355a"><b>…confusion</b></p><p id="4768"><i>If you appreciate stories like these and want to support other writers and me, consider signing up to become a Medium member. It’s only $5 a month, giving you unlimited access to incredible stories on Medium. If you sign up using my link below, I’ll earn a small commission at no extra cost to you.</i></p><p id="1574"><a href="https://james-marinero.medium.com/membership"><i>https://james-marinero.medium.com/membership</i></a></p><p id="2aae"><i>Or maybe just <a href="https://ko-fi.com/jamesmarinero">buy me a coffee?</a> and tell me what you liked reading (or not)…</i></p><figure id="3d7a"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*0chfaohu-z_vrO8sI4wdJA.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><p id="5f64"><i>James Marinero’s novels are available at my <a href="https://jamesmarinero.gumroad.com/">Gumroad</a> bookstore. Also at <a href="https://www.amazon.com/stores/James-Marinero/author/B0055RWF6U">Amazon</a> and <a href="https://books.apple.com/us/author/james-marinero/id490200686">Apple</a></i></p></article></body>

Geopolitics

China is Backing Putin’s Baltic Propaganda

The Baltic States rage as China ups the Russian Empire ante

Former Soviet states. 1 Armenia, 2 Azerbaijan, 3 Belarus, 4 Estonia,5 Georgia, 6 Kazakhstan, 7 Kyrgyzstan, 8 Latvia, 9 Lithuania, 10 Moldova, 11 Russia, 12 Tajikistan, 13 Turkmenistan, 14 Ukraine, 15 Uzbekistan Image credit:USSR Republics Numbered Alphabetically.png: Aris Katsaris derivative work: Master Uegly USSR map.svg: Saul ip

China may not be directly supplying armaments to support Russia’s war against Ukraine, but they are helping in other ways with diplomatic backing for Mad Vlad’s imperial aspirations, particularly concerning the Baltic States. But are there wider implications?

Diplomatic ammunition

The latest development is a statement by Lu Shaye, China’s ambassador to France. He said that former Soviet republics have no “effective status” in international law:

“In international law, even these ex-Soviet Union countries do not have the status, the effective status in international law, because there is no international agreement to materialise their status of a sovereign country,” - interview with French network TF1 on 21 April 2023

Baltic anger

The statement has enraged the Baltic states.

In the same interview, Lu sat on the fence when asked about Crimea’ status by interviewer Darius Rochebin:

“It depends on how you perceive the problem,” …“it’s not that simple,”… Crimea was “Russian at the beginning”.

China context

In December 1994, as part of a de-nuclearisation agreement that saw Kyiv give up the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal in exchange for security assurances from capitals including Beijing, China officially recognised Ukraine’s borders — including Crimea.

As, of course, did Russia itself. And we know what happened about that agreement.

Soviet context

Central Asia

The ramifications of such Chinese diplomatic statements about the post-Soviet international order may be much wider. For example, how will the governments of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan view them when China is actively trying to include them in its Silk Road initiative?

China has viewed these resources-rich countries as free-floating and is trying to bring them into a central Asian alliance away from the outer reaches of Moscow’s orbit.

How does that work if their international status is in doubt and they are still seen (at least by some China’s diplomats) as ‘legitimately’ Moscow’s property?

Caucasus

Add to that the concerns of countries such as Georgia which already has a major beef with Moscow — and no formal diplomatic relations since 2008.

And then we can throw in the complex issue of Nagorno Karabakh in dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan, where Russia has a ‘peacekeeping’ force.

The European context

Let’s not forget the fiefdom of Belarus. Lukashenko is widely recognised as Putin’s poodle, and his country as having very little autonomy. It is virtually a part of Russia and follows the Soviet model of a client state with a government still controlled from Moscow.

Conclusion

My conclusion is confusion.

Confusion perhaps within Chinese diplomatic policy. Surely not? We’re used to Chinese diplomats all singing from the same atheistic hymn sheet, aren’t we?

There remains the possibility that Lu Shaye was caught out by a clever interviewer. But Paris is a prime diplomatic posting for Chinese officials (or any other diplomat for that matter). They have to be really good to get there. So was he toeing the party line or making up policy on the hoof?

Will President Macron be re-calibrating his latest peace plan (which already looks to many like a dog’s breakfast)?

Is this latest statement by a senior Chinese diplomat a new policy agreed during the latest meeting between Xi Jinping and Putin in March 2023?

Could they have agreed a geopolitical carve-up?

‘OK, Jinping, you have ex-Soviet Central Asia, and I’ll have ex-Soviet western Europe.’

‘ Fine, Vlad, let’s drink to that shall we?’

There are many precedents, such as the secret Molotov-Ribbentrop pact…

and

China may not be directly supplying arms to Russia, but its diplomatic power is considerable.

But I’m still confused.

Except for one thing. Putin has cleverly managed to double the length of Russia’s borders with NATO countries and his hometown of St Petersburg is now hemmed in.

More context:

Update:

It seems that Lu Shaye was giving his personal opinion. Just like Tucker Carlson did about Donald Trump — but he did it in private.

Methinks that Lu Shaye will soon be headed for a retirement farm in Outer Mongolia.

About me: If you follow me I guarantee variety in your inbox with some unusual perspectives! I write on a wide range of topics including humor, tech, space, geopolitics and travel, together with daily news events and the minutiae of my daily life living on a boat. Yes, I really do live on a boat (some readers don’t believe that). I also write about…

…confusion

If you appreciate stories like these and want to support other writers and me, consider signing up to become a Medium member. It’s only $5 a month, giving you unlimited access to incredible stories on Medium. If you sign up using my link below, I’ll earn a small commission at no extra cost to you.

https://james-marinero.medium.com/membership

Or maybe just buy me a coffee? and tell me what you liked reading (or not)…

James Marinero’s novels are available at my Gumroad bookstore. Also at Amazon and Apple

Ukraine War
China
Baltic States
Russia
Geopolitics
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