War in Europe
Ukraine: Black Sea Submarine Missile Launches — and More
Down the rabbit hole again as a story leads me astray in the Bosphorus
Another week, another atrocity
Another week, another large-scale civilian atrocity in Ukraine. All atrocities are disgusting, but mass killing by targeting city centres in daytime is beyond words. Russia will take generations to repair its image.
Not content to fire expensive X-101 (Kh-101) cruise missiles from strategic bombers hundreds of miles away over the Caspian Sea, Russia is now is hitting Ukraine’s cities with Kalibr missiles launched from submarines in the Black Sea.
Zelenskiy calls Russian missile attack on Vinnytsia an ‘open act of terrorism’
The death toll from a Russian missile attack in the city of Vinnytsia in central Ukraine has climbed to 22, including three children, according to the head of the national police in Ukraine, Ihor Klymenko.
Dozens of people are still unaccounted for, Ukraine’s state emergency service said. A further 52 people, including four children, have been hospitalised, it said. 34 are in serious condition.
As often happens with my stories, I start with an idea and then the research leads me into a rabbit warren.
This one certainly did. Join me as I explore.
What submarines does Russia have deployed in the Black Sea?
The Russian Black Sea Fleet has a total of six submarines of the “Varshavianka” (‘Improved’ Kilo class, project 636.3) : B-261 Novorossiysk, B-237 Rostov-na-Donu, B-262 Stary Oskol, B-265 Krasnodar, B-268 Veliky Novgorod and B-271 Kolpino.
There is also one older (i.e. the not ‘Improved’) Kilo class attached to the fleet, the Alrosa, which was re-commissioned in 2022 and is believed to be undergoing sea trials.
According to Krym.Realii, the Alrosa left for sea trials on 28 June after an 8-year overhaul at the 13th ship repair plant of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. The submarine moved away from the shipyard’s berth in Kilen Bay and, after passing through the boom gate, entered Sevastopol’s outer anchorage. (Krym.realii is an online portal founded in March 2014 that focuses on the Crimea. It is one of Radio Free Europe’s Ukrainian service offerings).
Maybe the Alrosa is now ‘improved’ and can launch the Kalibr.
Varshavianka class submarines
These are all new submarines, launched since 2010. The latest, Kolpino, has a surface speed of 17 knots, an underwater speed of 20 knots, a cruising capacity of 45 days, and a crew of more than 50. She has a surface displacement of 2,350 tons and 3,100 tons submerged. Operational depth is about 250 metres although they would certainly be nearer the surface to launch cruise missiles.
They are conventionally diesel-electric powered with a single screw, but one was built with pump-jet propulsion.
Each boat has six 533mm torpedo tubes and carries a combination of up to 18 torpedoes and 3M-14 Biryuza anti-ship and 3M-54 Kalibr land-attack missiles (typically 4 Kalibr. Kalibr and Biryuza are variants). They also carry 8 Gimlet or Gremlin surface-to-air missiles.
According to Wikipedia there are five shipyards which build this submarine (many of the older Kilos were exported) but I noticed that one of them is in Nizhny Novgorod (formerly Gorky). It’s interesting because this city is way inland but has access to the Black Sea. I actually visited the city way back in the early ’90s in the course of my (non-military) work and ate sturgeon at a restaurant on the side of the Volga — a BIG river. It’s the sixth largest city in Russia. It’s also an important aerospace manufacturing centre.
But submarines? That was a surprise. It appears to be correct — the yard there built Kilo class boats for China as well as Russia.
We do not know which submarine was involved in the latest atrocity, but we have an idea which of them were not responsible. Because they are not all in the Black Sea, and two are apparently, in port.
Only four of the Improved Kilo-class submarines are actually deployed in the Black Sea. The remaining two are/were stationed in the Mediterranean and supported by the Russian naval base in Tartus, Syria, since 2017 (they launched Kalibr against Syrian anti-government forces).
Then Krasnodar was deployed to the Black Sea in early August 2017 and left again in March 2019.
Under the terms of the ‘Montreux Convention’ which governs passage through the Bosphorus, she will be unable to return, and even her departure in 2019 could have been a breach of the convention if it was for anything other than repairs (USNI News).
Implications of the Montreux Convention
This is really a side note, but fascinating, as I researched the relevant maritime law when writing ‘Gate of Tears’ and I’m now in the rabbit warren.
The right of commercial and naval vessels (and airplanes as well) to transit such sensitive straits as the Bosphorus/Sea of Marmara and Bab el-Mandeb in the Red Sea is well-established by a variety of international conventions.
Turkey is a NATO member and legally ‘controls’ access to the Black Sea.
Russia is a signatory to the Montreux Convention which governs that transit chokepoint (the ‘Turkish Straits’).
According to USNI News:
If Krasnodar left the Black Sea for repairs, then this passage is in accordance with the provisions of the convention. However, that would mean that either the submarine has suffered some undisclosed damage beyond what the Russian Navy could repair locally, or the Russian Navy cannot provide regular overhauls of its submarines in the Black Sea.
The Montreau Convention terms also govern wartime conditions and give Turkey specific powers. And, whilst Russia asserts that it is not at war with Ukraine, others see it differently.
Here’s what Lawfare said:
On Feb. 28, Turkish officials in Ankara declared that a “state of war” existed between Russia and Ukraine, triggering the application of the Montreux Convention’s relevant “wartime articles.” Turkey ostensibly invoked only Article 19 of the convention, which applies “[i]n a time of war” when “Turkey is not a belligerent.” In its invocation of Article 19, Turkey explicitly declared that Russia and Ukraine were the only “belligerent” states to the armed conflict to date. Article 19 explicitly bars warships of designated belligerent states from transiting the Turkish Straits unless they are returning to their home port in the Black Sea…
…Russia is obviously a belligerent in the ongoing war in Ukraine, so regardless of which article Anakra has invoked, Russia cannot transit non-Black Sea-homeported warships through the straits.
So, as is so often the case, the legals don’t hold water, almost literally.
Maybe that’s why Putin never declared war on Ukraine.
3M-54 Kalibr missiles
As used on Vinnitsya, I wrote about these LACM (land attack cruise missiles) recently.
Basically they are Mach 3 capable, multi-stage, with rocket boost and turbojet propulsion. They carry a 500 kg warhead. Their range is said variously to be anywhere between 1,400 km and 2,500 km.
The U.S. Department of Defense estimates its range at 1,400 km (870 mi), and Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu put its range at “almost 1,500 km (930 mi).
Either way, launched from a submarine in the Black Sea a Kalibr is certainly capable of hitting a land target almost anywhere in Ukraine.
The accuracy is said to be within 50 metres, which in today’s terms is not leading edge. In other words, collateral damage will be expected.
Here, apparently is a Kilo being loaded with Kalibrs in Sevastopol. I wonder who takes these pictures?
Puzzling or obvious?
I’m wondering why the Russians used a submarine launch of the Kalibr. I have not seen any reports of a ship-launched 3M-54 being used against Ukraine. Is it that Russia does not have any ships in the Black Sea which are equipped with the LACM variant (which I find hard to believe)?
Or is it that Russia is nervous of putting their surface ships within range of Ukraine’s Neptune anti-ship missiles — or their newly acquired Harpoons?
Here’s what the BBC reported on 19 July 2022:
Ukraine says a significant number of Russian warships in the Black Sea were moved from Crimea further east to the port of Novorossiysk. This comes after Kyiv received further deliveries of longer-range missile systems from its Western allies
Maybe they don’t want to risk another Moskva fiasco.
Now I’m wondering if that shipyard in Nizhny Novgorod is working overtime?
News update 23 July 2022:
I wonder where these are headed:
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