Trump Gets Lucky In Iran

So Iran has admitted that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards shot down the Ukrainian airliner.

The world holds it’s breath to see if Donald J Trump has struck a blow against Iranian Culture.

But… but… but you said…. no, you thought I said, you wanted me to say but I deliberately did not say because I don’t suffer from Trump Derangement Syndrome. Plus, I know the Trump News Cycle goes, ‘ he’s racist, he’s going to start WWIII, he’s a Russian agent, he’s mentally ill, he hates gays, he’s misogynist, he’s done nothing as President.’

Therefore having not started WWIIi, at least not yet, in order to move the Trump News Cycle forward — and keep in mind that the Trump News Cycle only advances when a consensus of ‘serious journalists’ find something that they convince themselves is a Trump mistake — the next move will either be a resumption of Russiagate (due to Hillary announcing she is running for President) or someone will go back, and have another look at the story of the Putin phone call.

Ask yourself this question.

If you are Vladimir Putin, having just fought ‘a war’ in support of President Assad in Syria, wouldn’t you really rather like to see Qasem/Qassem/Qasim Soleimani/Suleimani out of the way?

Especially when the people promoting the narrative that Mr Suleimani is heroic because he was fighting ISIS: and therefore helping Mr Assad: ergo he is working with the Russians: are people like the Quincy Institute (for responsible statecraft) financed by George Soros, and one of the Koch Bros.

The last thing Mr Putin wants is an unreformed, pseudo-radical terrorist, potential leader, trading on the past glories of forty years ago… (and no I am not talking about Jeremy Corbyn or Bernie Sanders)…. running about causing trouble.

Particularly when you have done a deal to sell Saudi Arabia the S-400 anti-aircraft system. And Russia is itself subject to sanctions.

I remain skeptical about this story of the Ukrainian plane. Ask yourself, is this story is plausible…

“A missile operator acting alone because of a “communications breakdown” had mistaken the Boeing 737 for a cruise missile heading towards a sensitive IRGC site and only had 10 seconds to decide whether to fire, he said.

“He was obliged to make contact and get verification. But, apparently, his communications system had some disruptions. Either the ‘jamming’ system was the cause or the network was busy,” said the Iranian general.”

For now, overlook the issue of the transponder.

According to the media America fired no cruise missiles that night: according to the accepted narrative, America didn’t do nuffin that night.

So why would a jumpy anti-aircraft operator think that a plane taking off from Tehran airport, and turning back because of an engine fire, was a cruise missile?

And supposedly Iran tipped everyone off about the fireworks. Presumably they would have tipped off their own troops, airports etc. But apparently having tipped off the airports, the air traffic controllers just went, “Yeah, it’ll be alright to let planes take off… it’s just our lads letting off steam.”

It’s not like the flight path from Tehran to Kiev is in the general direction of the airbases under attack, and forget that at roughly the same time Iranian TV was saying that Iranian fighter planes had crossed the border into Iraq.

Just ignore that Iranian TV was saying if there is retaliation there will be a second wave of attacks, (which there were) and a third wave of attacks this time on Haifa and Dubai (which there weren’t), and… well that didn’t happen because the plane was shot down.

And a bit later Trump came out and made his calming speech… and no one should notice his breathing, the military personnel in the background looking a bit ‘stressed’, and he doesn’t mention the plane. In fact he specifically says there has been no loss of life…. even though the downing of the plane had been widely reported at that time.

But, regardless of what happened the story now contains the key piece of information — it was the Iranian Revolutionary Guards wot done it.

Oh and it was Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei that ordered it (by implication).

Which brings us back to the issue of cultural change.

Since the revolution of 1979 (to be exact) the IRGC as grown to become a state within a state. They have been declared a terrorist organisation, and have developed brownstone operations with other terrorist organisations.

It is two years since the Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia issued a fatwa against killing Jews. And recently further moves have been made, though perhaps have gone unnoticed, towards a more general peace deal in the region.

The Iranian economy is shrinking, less than a month ago they were reported to have killed 1500 protestors in anti-government riots, and regardless of the fetishism of Michael Moore (and many on the left) for dictators, people in the country want change.

So what would be easier — though I am under no illusion as to the difficulty of doing so — than to disarm, and disband (or just re-badge) the IRGC? Oh and shunt the Supreme Leader aside, as a step towards the lifting of sanctions.

Would that be Cultural change?

And more to the point save Boeing’s bacon.