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ing career record of 16–15 and is coming off career-high numbers for the Bears. Kyle Shanahan is going to turn Brian Hoyer into a respectable NFL quarterback this season, just you wait.</p><figure id="6a7c"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*KOeIA3SOGLaBGYQ6jjADmA.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><h1 id="d448">Tier IV — The Game Managers</h1><h2 id="8d19">22. Sam Bradford (30)</h2><p id="302f">As a Vikings fan and <a href="https://unprofession.com/sorry-vikings-fans-sam-bradford-sucks-2bd75904fc59">lifelong Bradford hater</a>, it physically pains me to admit that Bradford is not one of the ten worst opening day starters in the NFL. Dude set the dumbest NFL record of all time last season with a 71.6% completion rate throwing three-yard checkdowns on 3rd-and-long all season. Whatever.</p><h2 id="4b25">21. Alex Smith (19)</h2><p id="4465">Alex Smith was the #1 pick in the 2005 NFL Draft whose top ten featured Ronnie Brown, Braylon Edwards, Cedric Benson, Cadillac Williams, Pacman Jones, Troy Williamson, Antrel Rolle, Carlos Rogers, and Mike Williams. Which means that Alex Smith is unquestionably the best player from the 2005 top ten and somehow still better at football than anything you do in your life, so how does that make you feel?</p><div id="2bda" class="link-block"> <a href="https://readmedium.com/2017-nfl-week-1-picks-against-the-spread-b6b81a4520ad"> <div> <div> <h2>2017 NFL week 1 picks against the spread</h2> <div><h3>Stats and insights on every game plus three best bets </h3></div> <div><p>medium.com</p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/1*hovnaSuPLnVrR5508xBE0Q.jpeg)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><figure id="7a81"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*KOeIA3SOGLaBGYQ6jjADmA.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><h1 id="c5c8">Tier V — Not as Good as You Think</h1><h2 id="1701">20. Carson Palmer (7)</h2><p id="43ce">Palmer is a cautionary tale to everyone ready to fall totally in love with Matt Ryan. Palmer was a 2015 MVP candidate after a pretty unremarkable career, with huge spike career-highs in yards per attempt and touchdown percentage. Then last season Palmer dropped right back down to his same old mediocre career averages right on cue, because regression to the mean is a thing and it can be a real dick.</p><h2 id="beae">19. Andy Dalton (14)</h2><p id="c25d">Hey remember last August when <a href="undefined">The Ringer Staff</a>’s <a href="undefined">Kevin Clark</a> said that Andy Dalton was the fifth best quarterback in the league and ranked him ahead of Aaron Rodgers? Cuz I do.</p><h2 id="def5">18. Joe Flacco (13)</h2><p id="b08d">Yeah, yeah, Flacco’s had a couple really great playoff runs, that’s super great. He also had career lows in yards per attempt (6.4) and touchdown percentage (3.0%) last year and comes into the season with a nagging lumbar injury. Let’s just say he won’t exactly be carrying this Ravens offense on his back any time soon.</p><h2 id="5c32">17. Matthew Stafford (16)</h2><p id="f790">Everyone loves Matt Stafford now after an incredible eight fourth-quarter comebacks last season to lead the league, but he averaged just 2.4 per year in his career before that so maybe more than a little bit of luck in there. Stafford is 5–46 in his career against teams with a record above .500, or 5–49 if you include the playoffs. For those of you counting at home, that’s… not good.</p><figure id="50df"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*KOeIA3SOGLaBGYQ6jjADmA.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><h1 id="7eb3">Tier VI — Better Than You Think</h1><h2 id="1dc6">16. Carson Wentz (21)</h2><p id="8f45">Wentz averaged 42 passes per game over the final ten games last season to lead the league, showing <a href="https://the-cauldron.com/carson-wentz-fact-or-fiction-a5a6a316c878">the confidence the Eagles had in their rookie</a>. He also had a terrible 5.8 yards per attempt during that span and a 1–7 win-loss stretch, so there’s a ways to go. Maybe Wentz isn’t better than Stafford and Flacco right now but he will be by the end of this season with real receivers and an actual offensive line.</p><h2 id="7586">15. Tyrod Taylor (12)</h2><p id="78e6">Taylor had precious little to work with last year, and he’ll have even less this season for a tanking Buffalo team. TyGod was sacked more than any quarterback, but the guy consistently makes winning plays, doesn’t turn it over, and won seven games each of the past two seasons — for the Bills. He may single-handedly cost Buffalo a top five draft pick.</p><h2 id="47c4">14. Kirk Cousins (17)</h2><p id="57fc">The eye test remains pretty skeptical on Captain Kirk, but the numbers are beginning to pile up. Cousins was third in the league in both yards and yards per attempt last season behind only Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. Now we need to see him do it without offensive coordinator Sean McVay (now the Rams head coach) to prove he’s more than just a product of a great system.</p><div id="8652" class="link-block"> <a href="https://readmedium.com/who-is-this-years-worst-to-first-nfl-team-f04262955e20"> <div> <div> <h2>Who Is This Year’s Worst-to-First NFL Team?</h2> <div><h3>Which 2016 bottom feeder will win its division in 2017?</h3></div> <div><p>medium.com</p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/1*Npm2hThnnkwha7SppBtwYA.jpeg)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><figure id="4b7c"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*KOeIA3SOGLaBGYQ6jjADmA.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><h1 id="c595">Tier VII —These Guys Are Winners… Question Mark?</h1><h2 id="bfdc">13. Jameis Winston (23)</h2><p id="a52a">Famous Jameis broke through last fall with a bunch of big plays and a 9–7 winning record, and everyone is on the Bucs bandwagon, but it could be a bumpy ride. Winston still threw 18 interceptions and a rough 61% completion rate, and he led the league in percentage of interceptable passes and routinely gets bailed out on high balls by his giant receivers. He may not be there yet.</p><h2 id="3405">12. Eli Manning (9)</h2><p id="2960">Manning has thrown 14+ interceptions eight straight seasons and had his lowest yards per attempt (6.7) in a decade despite throwing to Odell Beckham all year. His 51.8 QBR ranked just ahead of Blake Bortles and Case Keenum and behind Brock Osweiler and Colin Kaepernick. But the guy somehow still Freaky Fridays with big bro Peyton with the game on the line, leading six game-winning drives last year and always showing up in the playoffs. Now the Giants just have to get there.</p><h2 id="79d5">11. Derek Carr (18)</h2><p id="781b">The Raiders busted out last year, and Carr has improved from three to seven to twelve wins in three seasons. That’s probably why he’s the third favorite in the MVP race behind only Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, but his underlying numbers are fairly average, and he’s compiling them behind one of the best lines in the league with an awesome pair of receivers. Carr was second in the league in fourth-quarter comebacks (7) last season and led the league the year before, but what’s he doing the first three quarters?</p><figure id="8e95"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*KOeIA3SOGLaBGYQ6jjADmA.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><h1 id="741c">Tier VIII — We Have Reached the Top Ten</h1><h2 id="37e3">10. Dak Prescott (25)</h2><p id="3e00">While everyone was busy fawning over Derek Carr and Jameis Winston last year, Dak Attack was the season’s true breakout performance. He had one of the all-time great rookie seasons at QB with 23 to

Options

uchdowns and just four interceptions, averaging over eight yards per attempt. He surely benefited from that incredible run game and offensive line, but numbers like that make someone a top ten QB until proven otherwise.</p><h2 id="1da2">9. Philip Rivers (8)</h2><p id="869d">Rivers continues to be one of the most underrated quarterbacks in football. He was top five in passing yards and touchdowns last season despite playing most of the year with a M.A.S.H. unit, turning Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin into household names at receiver. Rivers led the league with 21 picks last season, a recurring problem with a waffling completion percentage, but he consistently does more with less as much as anyone in football outside of Wisconsin.</p><h2 id="47c1">8. Marcus Mariota (11)</h2><p id="2088">Mariota had an underrated rookie season, <a href="https://readmedium.com/who-is-this-years-worst-to-first-nfl-team-2477e4cfbe78">pretty similar to Russell Wilson</a>, then got even more efficient last year. He quietly threw more touchdowns than Stafford, Wilson, Cousins, and Prescott despite having the 24th most attempts in the league and throwing to a ragtag bunch of receivers headlined by Rishard Matthews. Mariota doesn’t throw a lot but makes it count when he does, ranking in the top five in both touchdown percentage and yards per completion, and he rarely turns it over. That’s why he’s my sleeper longshot 2017 MVP candidate at 40–1 odds.</p><h2 id="7f07">7. Ben Roethlisberger (4)</h2><p id="9838">Big Ben has never had fewer than seven wins in 13 seasons in the NFL. He threw for three or more touchdowns seven times last year and has developed an elite ability to avoid sacks with a career-low 3.2% sack percentage. If only he could manage to stay healthy for a whole season and remember how to play on the road.</p><div id="7ec6" class="link-block"> <a href="https://readmedium.com/2017-nfl-betting-guide-everything-you-need-to-dominate-vegas-b23f89c3ac44"> <div> <div> <h2>2017 NFL betting guide: Everything you need to dominate Vegas</h2> <div><h3>The best over/under bets and player props for the 2017 NFL season</h3></div> <div><p>medium.com</p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/1*0FJS6t7D9Jsv7jHpb8NG9g.jpeg)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><figure id="08c9"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*KOeIA3SOGLaBGYQ6jjADmA.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><h1 id="a416">Tier IX — The Elite</h1><h2 id="faa5">6. Matt Ryan (10)</h2><p id="ca4b">Sixth feels a bit harsh for the reigning MVP and three-quarter Super Bowl winner. Ryan set career highs in just about every stat last year leading one of the greatest offenses in NFL history. His 9.3 yards per attempt were a full yard over the next closest competitor. He averaged 10.1 adjusted yards per attempt, akin to picking up a first down on every pass for the season. But the same Matt Ryan threw 21 TDs and 16 interceptions the year before and hadn’t had a winning record since 2012, and regression is a real thing (see Carson Palmer) so let’s see him do it again before we cement his spot in the top three.</p><h2 id="0d45">5. Drew Brees (6)</h2><p id="9887">Brees led the league in passing yards yet again last season, his fourth time in five years. He set a career high in attempts and completions to lead the league in both categories and consistently redefines what it means to be both efficient and high volume all at once. So why has he won only seven games in four of the past five seasons?</p><h2 id="a0e5">4. Cam Newton (3)</h2><p id="0f48">Let’s not overreact and dump Newton down the rankings after one disastrous year. Cam took a ton of big hits on opening night last year and was never the same, sustaining another concussion in October and tearing his rotator cuff in December. Despite all that, Newton still averaged 13.0 yards per completion, barely behind Matt Ryan’s historic season and close to his career average of 12.7. That’s best in the modern era, and that’s all before you add in Newton’s value on the ground. With an offseason to get healthy and a soft schedule ahead, the former MVP should be back with a vengeance.</p><h2 id="e42a">3. Russell Wilson (1)</h2><p id="662d">Like Cam Newton, Wilson was hurt from the get-go last season with an ankle injury in Week 1 and a sprained MCL two weeks later. Wilson didn’t miss any time but those injuries hampered his mobility and dragged his numbers down all year. Still, a healthy Russell Wilson simply makes plays no one else in football can make. If the game’s on the line and you need a QB to make a play, he might still be the #1 pick.</p><figure id="00d3"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*KOeIA3SOGLaBGYQ6jjADmA.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><h1 id="690f">Tier X — Simply the Best</h1><h2 id="83f3">2. Tom Brady (NR)</h2><p id="62ef">Brady threw 28 touchdowns and a two interceptions last season despite missing the four games on suspension and then capped his season off with a Super Bowl comeback for the ages. Tom Brady is invincible. But he’s also 40. Exactly <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=1920&year_max=2017&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=40&age_max=48&pos%5B%5D=qb&pos%5B%5D=rb&pos%5B%5D=wr&pos%5B%5D=te&pos%5B%5D=e&pos%5B%5D=t&pos%5B%5D=g&pos%5B%5D=c&pos%5B%5D=ol&pos%5B%5D=dt&pos%5B%5D=de&pos%5B%5D=dl&pos%5B%5D=ilb&pos%5B%5D=olb&pos%5B%5D=lb&pos%5B%5D=cb&pos%5B%5D=s&pos%5B%5D=db&pos%5B%5D=k&pos%5B%5D=p&draft_year_min=1936&draft_year_max=2017&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&draft_pick_in_round=pick_overall&conference=any&draft_pos%5B%5D=qb&draft_pos%5B%5D=rb&draft_pos%5B%5D=wr&draft_pos%5B%5D=te&draft_pos%5B%5D=e&draft_pos%5B%5D=t&draft_pos%5B%5D=g&draft_pos%5B%5D=c&draft_pos%5B%5D=ol&draft_pos%5B%5D=dt&draft_pos%5B%5D=de&draft_pos%5B%5D=dl&draft_pos%5B%5D=ilb&draft_pos%5B%5D=olb&draft_pos%5B%5D=lb&draft_pos%5B%5D=cb&draft_pos%5B%5D=s&draft_pos%5B%5D=db&draft_pos%5B%5D=k&draft_pos%5B%5D=p&c5val=1.0&order_by=pass_yds">one quarterback in their 40s</a> in NFL history won more than seven games or threw for more than 3700 yards or 25 TDs — Brett Favre with the 2009 Vikings. If Tom Brady is going to lead this year’s Patriots to another Super Bowl, he’ll have to do something historic. Wouldn’t be the first time.</p><h2 id="4b9f">1. Aaron Rodgers (2)</h2><p id="bad1">Rodgers wins 10 games every year, never turns the ball over, and elevates his team every season. He had 40 TDs last fall for the fourth time in six seasons, and <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RodgAa00.htm">his year-by-year stat chart</a> are starting to make him look like <a href="https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duncati01.html#all_per_minute">the Tim Duncan of football</a>. Rodgers turns his receivers into stars and does more with less than anyone in sports. He’s simply the best.</p><figure id="5100"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*KOeIA3SOGLaBGYQ6jjADmA.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure id="145b"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*ZC0bHyx_PgAfjNtQ4apYOA.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><p id="101c"><i>Follow Brandon on Medium or <a href="https://twitter.com/wheatonbrando">@wheatonbrando</a> for sports and humor. Visit the rest of Brandon’s <a href="https://readmedium.com/brandon-anderson-writing-archives-6b3ee1a29301#.6cteu050v">writing archives</a>. All data thanks to <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/">Pro Football Reference</a>.</i></p></article></body>

The Ultimate 2017 Opening Day NFL Quarterback Rankings

Ranking every starter from Goff and Bortles to Rodgers and Brady

Football is here at last! It’s Opening Day of the 2017 NFL season and we are ready to rumble. The New England Patriots are prepared to defend their crown, the Atlanta Falcons can’t wait to redeem February’s 28–3 choke, and every other team is just eager to take their place in the Super Bowl.

Tom Brady and Matt Ryan combined to throw 66 touchdowns and just nine interceptions and dominated the 2016 season. No position in sports is more vital than quarterback, and every other team would’ve traded their guy for Brady or Ryan last season. But tonight everything starts anew.

Thirty-two NFL teams will start thirty-two NFL quarterbacks this week, and it’s important to know who’s best. If you had to rank every NFL opening day starting QB from worst to first based on their ability to help you win this season, how would you do it?

Here’s last year’s Opening Day rankings if you need a reference. Let’s do it.

The Ultimate 2016 Opening Day NFL Quarterback Rankings

It’s kickoff time, and you need someone to start for your favorite team. Who’s it going to be?

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Tier I — Oh God, Do We Have To?!

32. Scott Tolzien (not ranked last year)

Calling Scott Tolzien a game manager is an insult to game managers everywhere. This is a guy that had only 32 TDs in 29 games in college. Scott Tolzien is a game manager kind of like Donald Trump is a country manager. The Colts are screwed.

31. Blake Bortles (24)

Blake Bortles is terrible and his name sounds more like someone dry heaving than the name of a good quarterback. Bortles has been sacked 140 times in three seasons and is coming off a career high 58.9 completion percentage, which is a bit like a serial killer coming off a career-low four kills last year. Improved or not, they’re both still murdering the team.

30. Jared Goff (NR)

Goff was abysmal last season. He threw more interceptions than touchdowns and was sacked an absurd 11.3% of his dropbacks, somehow even worse than legendary Texans mannequin David Carr. Goff already looks like a possible #1 pick bust — and he’s not even the worst QB in his Week 1 game somehow.

29. Josh McCown (NR)

McCown has a career record of 18 wins and 42 losses including just two wins in his last 22 starts, and we are still giving him starting jobs. Josh McCown is a human tanking machine. The Jets are not messing around.

Tier II — Wait, Who???

28. Tom Savage (NR)

Savage is a 27-year-old with one career win that couldn’t beat out Brock Osweiler for playing time on a playoff team last season. Remind me again why the Texans are willingly starting him over NCAA champion Deshaun Watson?

27. Trevor Siemian (29)

Siemian had a pretty unremarkable season for the Broncos letting the defense win games, but at least he didn’t lose them. He’s held off first-round pick Paxton Lynch for a second straight season and is starting ahead of Brock Osweiler, which is more than Tom Savage can say.

26. DeShone Kizer (NR)

Kizer is a Cleveland Brown, carrying on the proud legacy of Robert Griffin, Josh McCown, Brian Hoyer, Johnny Manziel, Jason Campbell, Shane Falco, Brandon Weeden, and Colt McCoy gone before him. The Browns have only had one QB this century throw for more than 18 TDs in a season. That is a real honest-to-God stat. Kizer may be #26 here, but he’s #1 in the hearts of Cleveland fans everywhere.

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Your one-stop shop for who to target and avoid in drafts, late round sleepers, rookies, and more

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Tier III — Daaaaa Bears

25. Mike Glennon (NR)

Glennon is 5–13 in his career, gets sacked a ton, and frequently throws the ball to the other team. Chicago mortgaged their future for Mitchell “Don’t Call Me Mitch” Trubisky and had the next two guys on this list on their roster last year and somehow chose this guy to start their season instead.

24. Jay Cutler (15)

Cutler is both the best and worst quarterback in Bears history. He’s been the opening day starter for an NFL team for a decade and only won eight or more games three times. He frequently quits on his team and quit on football altogether in May. And somehow Miami still talked themselves into coaxing him out of retirement to bring his sourpuss attitude to South Beach. Enjoy, Dolphins fans!

23. Brian Hoyer (NR)

Hoyer the Destroyer has never found a real NFL home and is probably doomed to be an excellent backup or decent placeholder for a young QB, but he’s actually not terrible. He has a winning career record of 16–15 and is coming off career-high numbers for the Bears. Kyle Shanahan is going to turn Brian Hoyer into a respectable NFL quarterback this season, just you wait.

Tier IV — The Game Managers

22. Sam Bradford (30)

As a Vikings fan and lifelong Bradford hater, it physically pains me to admit that Bradford is not one of the ten worst opening day starters in the NFL. Dude set the dumbest NFL record of all time last season with a 71.6% completion rate throwing three-yard checkdowns on 3rd-and-long all season. Whatever.

21. Alex Smith (19)

Alex Smith was the #1 pick in the 2005 NFL Draft whose top ten featured Ronnie Brown, Braylon Edwards, Cedric Benson, Cadillac Williams, Pacman Jones, Troy Williamson, Antrel Rolle, Carlos Rogers, and Mike Williams. Which means that Alex Smith is unquestionably the best player from the 2005 top ten and somehow still better at football than anything you do in your life, so how does that make you feel?

2017 NFL week 1 picks against the spread

Stats and insights on every game plus three best bets

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Tier V — Not as Good as You Think

20. Carson Palmer (7)

Palmer is a cautionary tale to everyone ready to fall totally in love with Matt Ryan. Palmer was a 2015 MVP candidate after a pretty unremarkable career, with huge spike career-highs in yards per attempt and touchdown percentage. Then last season Palmer dropped right back down to his same old mediocre career averages right on cue, because regression to the mean is a thing and it can be a real dick.

19. Andy Dalton (14)

Hey remember last August when The Ringer Staff’s Kevin Clark said that Andy Dalton was the fifth best quarterback in the league and ranked him ahead of Aaron Rodgers? Cuz I do.

18. Joe Flacco (13)

Yeah, yeah, Flacco’s had a couple really great playoff runs, that’s super great. He also had career lows in yards per attempt (6.4) and touchdown percentage (3.0%) last year and comes into the season with a nagging lumbar injury. Let’s just say he won’t exactly be carrying this Ravens offense on his back any time soon.

17. Matthew Stafford (16)

Everyone loves Matt Stafford now after an incredible eight fourth-quarter comebacks last season to lead the league, but he averaged just 2.4 per year in his career before that so maybe more than a little bit of luck in there. Stafford is 5–46 in his career against teams with a record above .500, or 5–49 if you include the playoffs. For those of you counting at home, that’s… not good.

Tier VI — Better Than You Think

16. Carson Wentz (21)

Wentz averaged 42 passes per game over the final ten games last season to lead the league, showing the confidence the Eagles had in their rookie. He also had a terrible 5.8 yards per attempt during that span and a 1–7 win-loss stretch, so there’s a ways to go. Maybe Wentz isn’t better than Stafford and Flacco right now but he will be by the end of this season with real receivers and an actual offensive line.

15. Tyrod Taylor (12)

Taylor had precious little to work with last year, and he’ll have even less this season for a tanking Buffalo team. TyGod was sacked more than any quarterback, but the guy consistently makes winning plays, doesn’t turn it over, and won seven games each of the past two seasons — for the Bills. He may single-handedly cost Buffalo a top five draft pick.

14. Kirk Cousins (17)

The eye test remains pretty skeptical on Captain Kirk, but the numbers are beginning to pile up. Cousins was third in the league in both yards and yards per attempt last season behind only Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. Now we need to see him do it without offensive coordinator Sean McVay (now the Rams head coach) to prove he’s more than just a product of a great system.

Who Is This Year’s Worst-to-First NFL Team?

Which 2016 bottom feeder will win its division in 2017?

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Tier VII —These Guys Are Winners… Question Mark?

13. Jameis Winston (23)

Famous Jameis broke through last fall with a bunch of big plays and a 9–7 winning record, and everyone is on the Bucs bandwagon, but it could be a bumpy ride. Winston still threw 18 interceptions and a rough 61% completion rate, and he led the league in percentage of interceptable passes and routinely gets bailed out on high balls by his giant receivers. He may not be there yet.

12. Eli Manning (9)

Manning has thrown 14+ interceptions eight straight seasons and had his lowest yards per attempt (6.7) in a decade despite throwing to Odell Beckham all year. His 51.8 QBR ranked just ahead of Blake Bortles and Case Keenum and behind Brock Osweiler and Colin Kaepernick. But the guy somehow still Freaky Fridays with big bro Peyton with the game on the line, leading six game-winning drives last year and always showing up in the playoffs. Now the Giants just have to get there.

11. Derek Carr (18)

The Raiders busted out last year, and Carr has improved from three to seven to twelve wins in three seasons. That’s probably why he’s the third favorite in the MVP race behind only Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, but his underlying numbers are fairly average, and he’s compiling them behind one of the best lines in the league with an awesome pair of receivers. Carr was second in the league in fourth-quarter comebacks (7) last season and led the league the year before, but what’s he doing the first three quarters?

Tier VIII — We Have Reached the Top Ten

10. Dak Prescott (25)

While everyone was busy fawning over Derek Carr and Jameis Winston last year, Dak Attack was the season’s true breakout performance. He had one of the all-time great rookie seasons at QB with 23 touchdowns and just four interceptions, averaging over eight yards per attempt. He surely benefited from that incredible run game and offensive line, but numbers like that make someone a top ten QB until proven otherwise.

9. Philip Rivers (8)

Rivers continues to be one of the most underrated quarterbacks in football. He was top five in passing yards and touchdowns last season despite playing most of the year with a M.A.S.H. unit, turning Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin into household names at receiver. Rivers led the league with 21 picks last season, a recurring problem with a waffling completion percentage, but he consistently does more with less as much as anyone in football outside of Wisconsin.

8. Marcus Mariota (11)

Mariota had an underrated rookie season, pretty similar to Russell Wilson, then got even more efficient last year. He quietly threw more touchdowns than Stafford, Wilson, Cousins, and Prescott despite having the 24th most attempts in the league and throwing to a ragtag bunch of receivers headlined by Rishard Matthews. Mariota doesn’t throw a lot but makes it count when he does, ranking in the top five in both touchdown percentage and yards per completion, and he rarely turns it over. That’s why he’s my sleeper longshot 2017 MVP candidate at 40–1 odds.

7. Ben Roethlisberger (4)

Big Ben has never had fewer than seven wins in 13 seasons in the NFL. He threw for three or more touchdowns seven times last year and has developed an elite ability to avoid sacks with a career-low 3.2% sack percentage. If only he could manage to stay healthy for a whole season and remember how to play on the road.

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Tier IX — The Elite

6. Matt Ryan (10)

Sixth feels a bit harsh for the reigning MVP and three-quarter Super Bowl winner. Ryan set career highs in just about every stat last year leading one of the greatest offenses in NFL history. His 9.3 yards per attempt were a full yard over the next closest competitor. He averaged 10.1 adjusted yards per attempt, akin to picking up a first down on every pass for the season. But the same Matt Ryan threw 21 TDs and 16 interceptions the year before and hadn’t had a winning record since 2012, and regression is a real thing (see Carson Palmer) so let’s see him do it again before we cement his spot in the top three.

5. Drew Brees (6)

Brees led the league in passing yards yet again last season, his fourth time in five years. He set a career high in attempts and completions to lead the league in both categories and consistently redefines what it means to be both efficient and high volume all at once. So why has he won only seven games in four of the past five seasons?

4. Cam Newton (3)

Let’s not overreact and dump Newton down the rankings after one disastrous year. Cam took a ton of big hits on opening night last year and was never the same, sustaining another concussion in October and tearing his rotator cuff in December. Despite all that, Newton still averaged 13.0 yards per completion, barely behind Matt Ryan’s historic season and close to his career average of 12.7. That’s best in the modern era, and that’s all before you add in Newton’s value on the ground. With an offseason to get healthy and a soft schedule ahead, the former MVP should be back with a vengeance.

3. Russell Wilson (1)

Like Cam Newton, Wilson was hurt from the get-go last season with an ankle injury in Week 1 and a sprained MCL two weeks later. Wilson didn’t miss any time but those injuries hampered his mobility and dragged his numbers down all year. Still, a healthy Russell Wilson simply makes plays no one else in football can make. If the game’s on the line and you need a QB to make a play, he might still be the #1 pick.

Tier X — Simply the Best

2. Tom Brady (NR)

Brady threw 28 touchdowns and a two interceptions last season despite missing the four games on suspension and then capped his season off with a Super Bowl comeback for the ages. Tom Brady is invincible. But he’s also 40. Exactly one quarterback in their 40s in NFL history won more than seven games or threw for more than 3700 yards or 25 TDs — Brett Favre with the 2009 Vikings. If Tom Brady is going to lead this year’s Patriots to another Super Bowl, he’ll have to do something historic. Wouldn’t be the first time.

1. Aaron Rodgers (2)

Rodgers wins 10 games every year, never turns the ball over, and elevates his team every season. He had 40 TDs last fall for the fourth time in six seasons, and his year-by-year stat chart are starting to make him look like the Tim Duncan of football. Rodgers turns his receivers into stars and does more with less than anyone in sports. He’s simply the best.

Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for sports and humor. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives. All data thanks to Pro Football Reference.