The Conflict In Eastern Europe Continues To Swell

Conflicts in Eastern Europe are not uncommon, but the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia might get a bit worse before it gets better. Azerbaijan wants districts that belonged to it before the two wars with Armenia, and Armenia has control of much of the districts that Azerbaijan used to own, but that might change soon.

The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia has just escalated as more and more migrants from Nagorno-Karabakh have migrated to Armenia. Apparently, according to Armenians, over 100,000 people have fled the region of Nagorno-Karabakh. This is signaling a crisis in Eastern Europe, and this will definitely get some attention from western nations. Azerbaijan is an oil giant and a pretty wealthy country with a higher literacy rate. This fact will definitely appear when reporters start to get critical of Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan and Armenia have been fighting since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The confederation of Russia is supposed to be a peacekeeper between the two countries but is failing to stop the escalation of conflict. We have seen US forces start to move to Armenia in order to act as peacekeepers. The US has been to Eastern Europe for peacekeeping missions. For example, the US helped when mass genocides were happening in Serbia in 1999.

Azerbaijan believes that Nagorno-Karabakh belongs to it. The conflict started in 1988, when defectors from Azerbaijan wanted to give Nagorno-Karabakh over to Armenia. When the Soviet Union fell in 1991, this exacerbated the conflict, and it soon escalated to an all-out war. Attacks in the region are not uncommon, and from 1994 to 2020, skirmishes and raids have been made by Azerbaijan. What Azerbaijan wants is to make sure that it reclaims influence in districts it had control of, which are now partially controlled in Armenia. Azerbaijan wants full control of Nagorno-Karabakh so that it can reclaim a large part of its land.

There was a small ceasefire in December of 2020. This could have possibly been due to the cold season, which makes the fights very sluggish. Or the facilitation of negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which was controlled by the Russian Confederation, could have halted the war.

Nevertheless, now in 2023, the situation has escalated. Azerbaijan’s Minister of Defense said that an Armenian sniper has shot and killed an Azerbaijan service worker, and that has led to Azerbaijan’s being more aggressive in the area. Armenia has, of course, denied any action in the killing, but Azerbaijan insists that this was an act of aggression.

Nagorno-Karabakh was surprisingly looking for independence between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But the leader of this self-determined republic, who is named Samuel Shahramanyan, would agree to dissolve the state in 2024. This would make it more likely that Azerbaijan would be able to take over the area of Nagorno-Karabakh. Even if the district of Nagorno-Karabakh is made up mostly of an Armenian population, Azerbaijan insists that this area, which is mostly controlled by Armenia, belongs to them.

Seven districts that are under Armenian control are considered to actually be part of Azerbaijan. Nagorno-Karabakh is actually considered to be a part of the Republic of Artsakh, which is a part of Azerbaijan. But it is more complicated than this, as the Republic of Artsakh is a de facto state. It wants to be independent from both Azerbaijan and Armenia, and what this means is that there could be future conflicts between the Republic of Artsakh and Azerbaijan.

Even from 1991 all the way to 2023, the Republic of Artsakh has had much control over the state, even without the influence of Azerbaijan. Artsakh was able to be semi-independent until the Armenians were defeated by Azerbaijan’s forces. This was led by a spiral within the state of Artsakh, and this is why the leader of Artsakh, or the independent state of Nagorno-Karabakh, is ceded to Azerbaijan. This will be a disaster area for diplomatic tensions in the future, as we fully have a situation where an independent state has been ceded to the forces of an oppressor.

We do not know how Azerbaijan might abuse its power over controlling Nagorno-Karabakh, but we do know that Nagorno-Karabakh had a chance to become an independent state. Azerbaijan did in fact lose approximately 20 percent of their land to Armenia. They will not focus their forces on oppressing the people of Azerbaijan, but they will continue to enforce the front line. This is only a very inconclusive analysis, but it seems like it might just be true.

Currently, Azerbaijan holds supremacy over Armenia, and this war has been going on ever since 1994. Azerbaijan and Armenia are likely to resort to a peace deal. Russia has tried to resolve the conflict by sending a mass number — about 2000 — of troops in order to keep the peace in the region. Armenia still controls a large part of Nagorno-Karabakh, even though Nagorno-Karabakh is considered the land of Azerbaijan. What Russia wants to do is keep Nagorno-Karabakh protected and secured. Russia also wants to make sure that Nagorno-Karabakh is able to receive support from the outside world.

Russia has recently scolded the US, as 85 US soldiers have arrived in Armenia in order to train peacekeeping troops there. American soldiers will train about 125 soldiers from the Armenian 12th Peacekeeping Brigade. France and other European countries will also attempt to keep the peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

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