The Concept of Fertilizer Diplomacy

Summary

Brazil's "Fertilizer Diplomacy" initiative aims to secure fertilizer imports amidst a global crisis exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and high natural gas prices affecting the European Union.

Abstract

In response to the challenges posed by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the subsequent impact on fertilizer imports, Brazil has embarked on a "Fertilizer Diplomacy" mission to North Africa, engaging with Jordan, Egypt, and Morocco. This move is part of Brazil's broader fertilizer strategy, which includes a controversial plan to mine potash in the Amazon Rainforest, as announced by President Bolsonaro. The concept of "Fertilizer Diplomacy" has emerged as a significant geopolitical strategy, with countries leveraging their fertilizer supply to gain political leverage in a time of global food crisis, inflation, and war. While the current situation is dire, the strategic use of fertilizer in diplomacy could potentially aid in global economic recovery and address food shortages, with Africa poised to benefit from increased agricultural productivity led by Morocco.

Opinions

The global fertilizer industry is increasingly influenced by geopolitical dynamics, particularly as countries like Russia and Belarus use their fertilizer supply as political leverage.
Brazil's National Fertilizer Plan, which includes mining potash in the Amazon, faces opposition from indigenous groups but is seen as a necessary measure to secure fertilizer self-sufficiency.
The term "Fertilizer Diplomacy" reflects a shift in how critical global commodities are used in international relations, with the potential to reshape food security and economic stability.
The situation presents both challenges and opportunities, as fertilizer diplomacy could either intensify geopolitical tensions or foster cooperation and economic recovery, depending on how it is managed by global leaders.
Africa's development could significantly benefit from fertilizer diplomacy, with Morocco potentially leading the continent in agricultural modernization and productivity.

The Concept of Fertilizer Diplomacy

On May 3, 2022, Brazil announced that the government was taking a trip to North Africa for the purpose of engaging Jordan, Egypt and Morocco for “Fertilizer Diplomacy.”

This diplomatic engagement underscores the issues that Brazil is facing in securing fertilizer imports during the conflict with Russia and Ukraine.

Moreover, because Russia is one of the world’s largest fertilizer exporters, Brazil has doubled down on its efforts to implement a new fertilizer strategy, which was unveiled by President Bolsarno earlier this year.

Brazil’s National Fertilizer Plan even proposes to mine potash from underground reserves in the Amazon Rainforest.

What is Fertilizer Diplomacy?

This concept has reshaped the whole narrative of the global fertilizer industry. It implies that the fertilizer markets have become susceptible to geopolitical forces. Perhaps because the world is facing an unprecendented food crisis, but mainly because of renewed conflict over geopolitics and military strategy, as evidenced by Russia and Belarus — Belarus is one of the world’s largest potash producers — and how the countries have used their influence over fertilizer supply to increase political leverage.

Read more about the importance of potash and the current global fertilizer industry dynamics with this story about Canada’s Nutrien Ltd.’s CEO transition: https://readmedium.com/what-went-down-at-the-worlds-largest-potash-producer-nutrien-ltd-c174d19e403d

In fact, the concept of “Fertilizer Diplomacy” originated around the time that Russia began initiating countermeasures against Europe for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. This occurred under the backdrop of extremely high natural gas prices due to the Covid-19 pandemic, hitting the European Union (EU) market extremely hard.

This data was found at Geopolitical Futures (GF). Francesco Casarotto, “Europe’s Fertilizer Crisis Could Become a Food crisis” December 14, 2021.

But in 2020, analysts claim that Russia’s fertilizer production of mineral fertilizers grew at a rate of 5% hitting approximately 54.8 million tons. By comparison, the world average grew at arond 2% in 2020.

The graph above indicates how widespread Russia’s fetilizer exports impact global supply of two keyinputs: nitrogen and potash, This data was found at Geopolitical Futures (GF). Ekaterina Zolotova, “Russia’s Fertilizer Diplomacy” December 21, 2021.

The truth is that this “Fertilizer Diplomacy” seems to be unraveling during the worst times of this century — global pandemic, food crisis, inflation, war.

And yet, the governments of the world are already conceptualizing critical global commodities as way to engage in diplomacy. This adds a geopolitical factor to any country’s supply and production targets. As the dimensions of political leverage grow in their favor, they would continue to use fertilizer as a way to influence important political decisions.

On the other hand, when fertilizer prices subside, “Fertilizer Diplomacy” could contribute to the health of global economic recovery and help alleviate the global food crisis. Africa is a case in point, as Morocco seeks to lead the way as Africa’s main supplier to increase agricultural productivity and modernity. This would be a major boon to Africa’s growth and development.