The 30th Screen Actors Guild Awards Nominations: Key Takeaways
This morning, Issa Rae, Kumail Nanjiani, and Fran Drescher revealed the nominees for the 30th Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, which honor the best in film and television acting over the past year. For my first article of this awards season, I analyze this year’s lineup of nominees and speculate on what they do (and don’t) mean for the upcoming awards season.
Click here for my recap of this year’s Oscar nominations
What are the SAG Awards and why are they important?
The SAG Awards are comprised of 15 competitive categories that honor to individual actors and acting ensembles across film and television. The nominations are voted on by a subset of the membership of SAG-AFTRA, a labor union that represents approximately 160,000 film, television, and radio performers. The full membership then votes for the winners. The SAG Awards telecast is a star-studded affair by its very nature and the SAG winners have presaged numerous major Oscar upsets (e.g., Shakespeare in Love’s Best Picture win over Saving Private Ryan, Crash’s win over Brokeback Mountain, Spotlight’s win over The Revenant, Parasite’s win over 1917). Largely as a result of these two factors, the SAG Awards have evolved into a highly esteemed awards ceremony.
SAG’s television winners have a fairly weak convergence with the eventual winner of the Primetime Emmys (the top award for television). There are several reasons for this, including the massively different eligibility period (i.e., SAG follows the calendar year, while the Emmys goes July through June) and markedly different acting categories (e.g., the Emmys have supporting and guest acting races, whereas the SAG lumps everyone into one category regardless of the size of their role).
On the film side, however, the SAG Awards have a strong track record as a bellwether for the Academy Awards (the top award for film). Since their inception, the SAG winner has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar 79% of the time in Best Actor, 72% of the time in Best Actress, 69% of the time in Best Supporting Actor, and 72% of the time in Best Supporting Actress. The top SAG award (Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture) has corresponded with the top Oscar (Best Picture) 46% of the time, but as mentioned above, the winner of the top SAG award has often presaged major Oscar upsets. It’s also worth noting that last year the SAG film awards corresponded perfectly with the overlapping Oscar categories — Everything Everywhere All at Once won the top award, Best Actress (Michelle Yeoh), Best Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan), and Best Supporting Actress (Jamie Lee Curtis) at both and Brendan Fraser won Best Actor at both for The Whale.
This morning, the nominations for the 30th SAG Awards were announced on a live stream that featured Issa Rae (star of Emmy-nominated Insecure and this year’s big screen hits Barbie and American Fiction), Kumail Nanjiani (star of SAG-nominated The Big Sick, and Emmy-nominated Silicon Valley and Welcome to Chippendale’s), and Fran Drescher (star of the classic sitcom The Nanny and current president of the SAG-AFTRA union). Below, I list what this morning’s nominations indicate for the rest of awards season and then briefly comment on key takeaways from the television nominees.
KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THE FILM NOMINATIONS FOR THE 30TH SAG AWARDS
It was a crushing showing for…
- May December. Todd Haynes critically lauded drama was always going to be a hard sell for voters because of its disturbing premise (an actress gets to close to the real-life child predator she is portraying in an upcoming film) and wildly uncomfortable tone that vascilates between awkwardly comic to undeniably tragic. However, the fact that neither previous SAG winners Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore nor breakout star Charles Melton could make it in the final 5 shows that voters really did not like this film. It’s even more concerning when you realize it’s available on Netflix and virtually every other Netflix offering that was in serious contention this year had a strong morning (see below).
- Past Lives. Celine Song’s masterful, heart-wrenching character study blew away audiences and critics in its limited release last summer and has remained in the awards season conversation ever since. Despite this, the exceptional performances of Greta Lee and her co-stars were not honored by SAG. The film is at a major disadvantage in awards season due to its subtlety, its subtitles (much of the film is Korean), its distant release date, and its lack of A-listers in front of or behind the camera. Getting love from some major precursors like SAG is likely essential for it getting into the Oscars, which make its omissions this morning particularly concerning.
- Air. Ben Affleck’s well-received film about the creation of the iconic Air Jordan shoe had a strong box office run early last year and gained legions more fans through its availability on Prime Video. It was so widely seen, features so many A-listers, and was so well-liked by audiences and critics that I suspected it had a shot in Ensemble, Actor (Matt Damon), and Supporting Actress (Viola Davis). Its complete absence from the SAG nominations probably means that it has zero shot at the Oscars.
- Anatomy of a Fall. Justine Treit’s critically adored French film about a woman accused of her husband’s murder won big at the Golden Globes on Sunday, taking home the trophies for Best Screenplay and Best Non-English Language Film. However, star Sandra Huller’s omission here was a setback in its awards season run. I would not rule her out, though, as Academy voters are historically significantly more likely to nominate actors from non-English language films than SAG voters are.
- Saltburn. Somehow, Oscar-winning writer/director/actress Emerald Fennell made a second film even more polarizing than her debut Promising Young Woman. With a Best Picture nomination from the Critics’ Choice Awards and a pair of Golden Globe nominations for stars Barry Keoghan and Rosamund Pike, some thought it might break into the Oscars. But a complete omission at SAG despite its buzzy cast does not bode well.
- The Iron Claw. Sean Durkin’s sports drama got significant critical acclaim and is in the midst of a stronger-than-expected box office run. Unfortunately, this didn’t convert into any nominations, even for star Zac Efron.
- Are You There God, It’s Me Margaret? Rachel McAdams’s has received numerous citations from regional critics’ groups for her supporting turn in Kelly Fremon Craig’s adaptation of the classic Judy Blume novel. She needed a nomination here to keep her Oscar hopes alive.
It was a “good enough” showing for…
- The Holdovers. Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph earned their expected nods for Actor and Supporting Actress, respectively, for their turns in Alexander Payne’s coming-of-age dramedy. But that’s it. A nomination in Film Ensemble or Supporting Actor for the third main player (Dominic Sessa) would have indicated broader enthusiasm for the the film that would have elevated its status to that of a major Oscar player outside of acting.
- Killers of the Flower Moon. It may seem ludicrous that I am calling the showing for Martin Scorcese’s latest historical epic underwhelming considering that it got nominations for Film Ensemble, Actress (Lily Gladstone), and Supporting Actor (Robert DeNiro). However, I stand by this claim due to the shocking omission of Oscar-winning icon Leonardo DiCaprio in Actor. Sure, it was a competitive category, but the A-lister’s absence here immediately downgraded him from “sure thing” to “possible” Oscar nominee.
- Poor Things. Yorgos Lanthimos’s bizarre, beautiful, and brilliant film scored its expected nominations in Actress (Emma Stone) and Supporting Actor (Willem Dafoe). Interestingly, however, most expected Mark Ruffalo to be the one nominated for Supporting Actor, not Dafoe. Similarly to The Holdovers, if Poor Things scored additional nominations for Film Ensemble or another actor it might have indicated that it had enough support to be a major player in Picture and Director at the Oscars.
- Maestro. Bradley Cooper and Carey Mulligan scored their expected nominations for Cooper’s biopic of Leonard Bernstein. Few expected it to show up in Film Ensemble, but if it had it certainly would have enhanced its status as an Oscar power player.
- The Zone of Interest. Despite the fact that it received no nominations this morning, I put Jonathan Glazer’s critically acclaimed Holocaust film in this category because no one really expects it to reap Oscar nominations for its actors. I doubt its omission here really has any bearing on whether it gets nominated in major Oscar categories like Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay.
It was an exceptional morning for…
- American Fiction. Simply put, no film had a better morning than Cord Jefferson’s adaptation of Percival Everett’s 2001 novel Erasure. The dramedy was considered a solid bet for Jeffrey Wright in Actor but a longshot in other categories. Not only did Wright get nominated in Actor (over Leonardo DiCaprio’s turn in a Martin Scorcese film, no less!) but Sterling K. Brown scored a nomination for Supporting Actor and the cast scored in Film Ensemble. It looks like this one is a bigger Oscar player than many were expecting.
- The Color Purple. Few films needed a great showing at the SAG nominations more than Blitz Bazawule’s musical adaptation of Alice Walker’s classic novel. After a big wave of pre-release buzz and a record-breaking opening day at the box office, the film’s heat has cooled significantly as its box office went into free fall and numerous stories came out about poor working conditions for the actors. It is still not a slam dunk for major Oscar nominations, but its SAG nominations for Film Ensemble and Supporting Actress (Danielle Brooks) certainly kept its Oscar hopes alive.
- Oppenheimer. With nominations for Film Ensemble, Actor (Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actor (Robert Downey, Jr.), and Supporting Actress (Emily Blunt), Christopher Nolan’s critically acclaimed blockbuster showed up everywhere it could have been reasonably expected to. It remains the film to beat in several major Oscar categories.
- Barbie. Although a nomination for America Ferrera (whose female empowerment monologue was one of the most memorable moments of the year) in Supporting Actress would have made it an even better morning for Greta Gerwig’s record-breaking Barbie, the fact that a comedy based on a toy scored a nomination for Film Ensemble and two acting nominations ( Actress for Margot “Barbie” Robbie and Supporting Actor for Ryan “Ken” Gosling) show that this film continues to defy all odds and will likely have a very strong Oscar showing.
- Ferrari. Few films in recent memory have had a faster free-fall in their awards buzz than Michael Mann’s biopic of Enzo Ferrari. Audiences resoundingly rejected it and critics were lukewarm at best. The surprising nomination for Penelope Cruz in Supporting Actress keeps the film’s chance of getting a major Oscar nomination alive.
- Nyad. Annette Bening and Jodie Foster were considered strong possibilities but certainly not slam dunks for SAG nominations for Actress and Supporting Actress, respectively, for their turns in Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin’s sports drama. Their nominations here greatly increase the film’s Oscar potential, but nevertheless it is worth noting that SAG voters tend to shower Netflix films with significantly more nominations than Oscar voters do. Examples from just the past 3 years of SAG-nominated films that failed to reap Oscar nominations are 2022’s Hustle and The Good Nurse, 2021’s Passing, and 2020’s Da 5 Bloods.
- Rustin. Colman Domingo’s acclaimed turn as black gay civil rights activist Bayard Rustin in George C. Wolfe’s Netflix drama was a somewhat surprising inclusion in Actor (particularly over Leonardo DiCaprio. But does he have what it takes to make it all the way to an Oscar nomination or is this another case of SAG’s eexceeding affection for Netflix? Time will tell.
KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THE TV NOMINATIONS FOR THE 30TH SAG AWARDS
As mentioned above, the SAG TV nominations have a much weaker convergence with the Primetime Emmys than the film nominations do with the Oscar nominations. Nevertheless, their nominations certainly give some insight into what shows the actors are passionate about.
Fresh off of winning all 4 categories it was nominated in at the Golden Globes, the shocking 4th and final season of Succession dominated the SAG TV nominations with a Drama Ensemble nomination and 4 individual acting nominations (Kieran Culkin, Matthew MacFadyen, Brian Cox, and Sarah Snook). It is likely to dominate the drama categories at next Monday’s strike-delayed Primetime Emmys. Other drama nominees included The Morning Show’s 3rd season (Drama Ensemble and individual nominations for Jennifer Aniston and Billy Crudup), The Last of Us’s 1st season (Drama Ensemble and individual nominations for Pedro Pascal and Bella Ramsey), The Crown’s 6th and final season (Drama Ensemble and an individual nomination for Elizabeth Debicki), The Gilded Age’s 2nd season (Drama Ensemble), and The Diplomat’s 1st season (an individual nomination for Keri Russell).
Two shows that will be duking it out for the major Emmys in the comedy categories had strong showings. The Bear scored 4 nominations for its 2nd season (Comedy Ensemble and individual nominations for Jeremy Allen White, Ayo Edebiri, and Ebon Moss-Bachrach). Ted Lasso also scored 4 nominations for its 3rd season (Comedy Ensemble and individual nominations for Jason Sudeikis, Hannah Waddingham, and Brent Goldstein). The other nominated comedies were Abbott Elementary’s 2nd season (Comedy Ensemble and an individual nomination for Quinta Brunson), Barry’s 4th and final season (Comedy Ensemble and an individual nomination for Bill Hader), The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel’s 5th and final season (individual nominations for Rachel Brosnahan and Alex Borstein), and Only Murders in the Building’s 3rd season (Comedy Ensemble).
In the Limited Series category, Beef comes off of its 3 big Golden Globe wins last week with nominations for stars Steven Yuen and Ali Wong. The other Limited Series acting nominees were spread out across 8 series.
A Few Records and Fun Facts
- With her nomination as part of The Morning Show’s ensemble, Julianna Margulies receives her 21st SAG nomination. This puts her in a tie with Julia Louis-Dreyfus for the 2nd most nominations in the awards’ history (behind only The Sopranos and Nurse Jackie star Edie Falco).
- With her nomination as part of Only Murders in the Building’s ensemble, Meryl Streep receives her 20th SAG nomination. This puts her in a tie with Alec Baldwin for the 4th most nominations in the awards’ history (behind Falco, Louis-Dreyfus, and Margulies). Streep remains tied with Cate Blanchett as the actor to receive the most SAG nominations for film work (they both have a total of 17 nominations in the film categories).
- Other actors who increased their already astounding number of SAG nominations include Jennifer Aniston (who received her 14th and 15th nominations for The Morning Show), Dame Helen Mirren (who scored her 14th nomination as the narrator of Barbie), Jon Hamm (who received his 13th and 14th nominations for Fargo and as part of the ensemble of The Morning Show), Leonardo DiCaprio (who received his 13th nomination as part of the ensemble of Killers of the Flower Moon), Tony Shalhoub (who scored his 12th nomination for Mr. Monk’s Last Case), John Lithgow (who scored his 11th nomination as part of the ensemble for Killers of the Flower Moon), Sterling K. Brown (who received his 10th and 11th nominations for American Fiction), and Christine Baranski (who scored her 9th nomination as part of the ensemble of The Gilded Age).
What’s Next?
After airing on TNT and TBS nearly every year since their inception, the 30th Screen Actors Guild Awards will live stream on Netflix on February 24, 2024. The telecast will also feature the presentation of a Lifetime Achievement Award to Barbra Streisand. Other major awards season events coming up over the next month are the 29th Critics’ Choice Awards (January 14), the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards (January 15), the nominations announcemtn for the 96th Academy Awards (January 23), and the 66th Grammy Awards (February 4). I will be covering as much of them as I can without quitting my day job.
Stay tuned.
Follow the author of this article on Medium and Twitter.
Read relevant articles about movies written by this author:
